COMPS:
Marc Lawrence
N.C. State at Georgia Tech
Prediction: N.C. State
The Wolfpack have done their best work on the road this season so their 11-point loss at home to the Yellow Jackets earlier this year one of Techs only two conference wins to date doesn't seem all that appalling. The visitor is 12-5 ATS in NC State games and if the W column didn't reach a baker?s dozen on Saturday (at home against lowly Wake), it will tonight as the Wreck haven't been doing any home cooking of their own, posting a 2-4 ATS mark in Atlanta as of press time. Brian Gregory?s group is also 1-6-1 ATS against ACC foes with same-season loss revenge of 10 or more points and that ties in nicely to a series history that shows the Pack 10-2-2 ATS as dogs or favorite of 7 or less points. With that being said, we have no choice but to back the Pack as State gets it revenge and stays in the top half of the conference standings.
<hr>Rob Vinciletti
Manhattan vs. Fairfield
Play: Manhattan +4
Manhattan has won and covered 3 of 4 after allowing 80 or more and 3-1 ats vs teams who allow 63 or less points. They have a solid 17-6 ats spread mark this season including 5-0 ats if the total is 120 to 130. Fairfield has lost 9 of 10 vs teams with a winning record. I cant lay points with a team like that. They are also 1-6 ats at home, 0-3 ats with road loss revenge and have failed to cover 10 of 15 as a favorite. Look for Manhattan to get the cash
<hr>Nick "The BookieKiller" Parsons
Nashville Predators @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators
For a number of different reasons I believe that the home side stops its slide tonight:
Ottawa is 27-22-7 and dropping like a stone, having lost seven-straight.
Its most recent setback was a lacklustre 3-1 effort vs. St. Louis on Tuesday.
Ottawa got 28-shots on its former goaltender, but Brian Elliot prevailed in the end.
Sens netminder Craig Anderson was pulled quickly, giving way to Alex Auld, who stopped 13 of the 14-shots he faced.
“The biggest thing is to make sure we’re sticking together,” Auld said. “That’s what has gotten us through some tough times this year is the fact that we are a close group and we have to make sure that we are holding each other accountable and still having a lot of fun in practice and I believe we’re going to get out of this.”
On the other bench: Nashville is 32-17-3-2; after winning five straight, the Preds have won just one of two over their last three, most recently losing 4-3 in a shootout to Vancouver on Tuesday.
The loss snapped Pekka Rinne's 11-game win streak; “It’s a goalie against a shooter, and we both have a chance,” Rinne said. “But I wasn’t happy with those two goals I gave up.”
Bottom line: "Desperation" is obviously a factor that the books have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, as this contest becomes an almost "must-win" for the home side.
With a game at Boston looming for Nashville on Saturday, I believe there are enough significant factors working in favor of Ottawa here, to make it the prudent wager in this situation!
<hr>Sean Murphy
Rider @ Canisius
PICK: Rider -5
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Ordinarily, this might be a spot where a team like Rider would overlook its inferior opponent, in a sleepy Thursday night matchup in the second week of February.
I don't believe that will be the case with the Broncs.
Rider has won four of its last five games, but remains just 7-6 in MAAC play this season. The Broncs have shown flashes of brilliance, but have had a tough time putting it all together.
The good news is, momentum is on their side right now, and they're going up against an opponent that has all but quit on the season.
Note that the Broncs have held the opposition to 38.8% shooting during their current 4-1 run, and that tough defensive play should be the key to victory again tonight.
Canisius has but one win in 13 tries in conference play, that coming against an equally poor Marist squad. Keep in mind, the Griffins dropped an 11-point decision against that same Marist team last weekend.
Speaking of last weekend, Canisius did put up 86 and 69 points in a pair of losses, but it did so by shooting exceptionally well from beyond the arc. That's not something we can count on tonight, as the Griffins are shooting just over 31% from three-point land at home, while Rider has really stepped up its perimeter defense lately, holding its last five opponents to 29.1% three-point shooting.
The Golden Griffins have lost six of their seven MAAC home games by at least nine points, so it's not as if home court advantage has meant much.
This will be their second meeting with Rider this season, after getting blown off the court in an 89-65 decision back on January 22nd.
The oddsmakers certainly aren't expecting that type of blowout this time around, and neither am I. With that being said, I do feel that Rider is the vastly superior team, and given the fact that it still remains in the middle of the pack in the MAAC, it isn't likely to overlook Canisius on this night.
<hr>David Chan
Stars @ Blue Jackets
PICK: Under
I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.
The 27-23-2 Dallas Stars explode into Columbus to take on the 15-32-6 Blue Jackets.
The Stars currently sit on the outside looking in, to the playoff picture, two points out of eighth spot.
Dallas will look to bounce back here against a couple of the leagues bottom feeders after falling 4-1 to Phoenix on Tuesday:
“I think it might be all right to get on the road and try to get going,” coach Glen Gulutzan said. “We’re making it tough on ourselves. We could have been in eighth spot tonight.”
The Stars are in Buffalo tomorrow night:
“We got a two-game road trip coming up right now which is pretty huge and we gotta make sure we come back here with some points,” Michael Ryder said.
While the Blue Jackets remain mired in the basement, they've won back to back games for the second time all year, most recently a 3-1 win over the Wild on Tuesday:
“I think the last nine periods now, we aren’t perfect, we make our mistakes,” interim coach Todd Richards said. “But the hard work usually makes up for those mistakes. We got players now that are committed to having each other’s back.”
Columbus has benefited from the improved play of Curtis Sanford who is 4-1-1 with a 3.22 GAA in his last seven starts vs. Dallas.
Kari Lehtonen has started six of Dallas' last seven games and is 4-3-1 with a 1.75 GAA vs. the Blue Jackets.
Note that both teams have been struggling mightily with the man advantage; the Stars at just 14.6%; the Blue Jackets an even worse 14.5%.
The last two times these teams have met, they've totaled five goals in each game; I expect a similar outcome here; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!
<hr>Stephen Nover
L.A. Lakers @ Boston
PICK: Boston -3.5 5
REASON FOR PICK: Healthy at last, Boston is playing its best ball winning nine of its last 10, including a season-high five in a row.
The Lakers are not the elite team of past vintage. Kobe Bryant remains great and Los Angeles' tall front line can cause matchup problems, but the Lakers have depth issues and backcourt problems, particularly at point guard.
Until the Lakers prove otherwise, they are a fade on the road where they are 3-9 straight-up and ATS. The Lakers are giving up 97.2 points on the road, which is 12 more per game than they allow at home.
The Celtics have the defense to take advantage holding foes to a league-low 86.5 points per game, while also ranking No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage at 41.8.
Maybe the Lakers can end their road woes here. They've been idle since Monday when they failed to cover as four-point road 'dogs to the 76ers losing by five.
But I doubt that happens considering the Celtics are rested - having been at home since the start of the month and idle on Wednesday - at full strength and playing well.
The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the past 11 times they've been a road 'dog. They also are 3-9 ATS when playing on two days rest and are 4-10 ATS when taking on opponents with a winning mark.
<hr>Brad Diamond
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +3½
The traveling unit from Los Angeles is on an extended six-game road swing, mostly back east. In their last outing against Philadelphia, Kobe Bryant was magnificent in the first-half, only to shoot 2-11 in the second-half, as the Sixers doubled the star, taking away his off-hand reverses. More important, the Lakers because of the travel factor, seem to die at the end of the game allowing the Sixers deep bench with rested starters to overcome an early deficit. Here, the visiting Lakers have been off for a few days, looking to recharge for this stoic battle with a long-time hated foe, the Boston Celtics. We know Boston has been playing their best ball of the year. The last time LA defeated Boston (LY: 92-86) was in 2010 in a situation that echoed Boston’s lockdown defense holding back the Lakers accuracy from the field at 30% in the second-half. Currently, the Celtics lead the league in FG defense, so LA will to compensate by playing slower early to help extend their late energy. If you look at the ATS results for LA, you will find they show at 2-9 ATS as a road puppy. However, the Celtics board at 20-49 ATS off a win of 10 or more points and clearly, have NOT played a winning team within their current 5 game win streak. Take the value-added points!
<hr>Jim Feist
Nevada vs Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii
A long road trip for Nevada and it's never easy to head to Hawaii to play. The Wolf Pack are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and Hawaii is playing well at home, as usual, with a 9-4 record. Hawaii is on a roll, a 9-2 ATS run, plus the Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Grab the home court; Play Hawaii.
