Thursday - 1st Inning - NO PLAYS

[lazzonya]

c u tomorrow.

Season:

4-1 +4.45 units

1 unit - 2-1 +0.96u
2 unit - 2-0 +3.49u
3 unit - 0-0 +0.00u
4 unit - 0-0 +0.00u

YES - 3-0 +4.54u
NO - 1-1 -0.09u

 

[geeze]

Thanks for the heads-up, Lazz.

 

[BOOTZY]

cu tomorrow lazz

 

[thatoneguy]

really? not even that bal/min match up? bal is a 1st inning maching, jones and markakis(especially him) have been hot, those two and brian roberts are a combined 7-12 against perkins. perkins himself has given up a 1st inning run in three of his five starts(the other two he gave up runs in the second...) and is one for one on the road. bergesen hasn't seen much action in the bigs and hasn't given up a 1st inning run in three starts(but balt had one in two of those starts, fwtw) but both him and perkins have been getting shelled in their last couple starts. not sure how they'll handle the two hole now that the cancer that was casilla is gone, but both span and mauer have been banging lately too. in fact, i think i just talked myself into it off the baltimore side alone...

either way, hell of a call yesterday :drink:

 

[kreitmaster]

11 straight O's games with a first inning run.

 

[lazzonya]

11 straight O's games with a first inning run.

GREAT STAT

i had the line in this one at:

-128 / -102

i usually only make plays when my line is considerably different from the books. i'm a value gambling degenerate.

 

[thatoneguy]

yeah, the -135 is a steep price, i see what you're saying, still looks mighty tasty

 

[lazzonya]

pitchers:

perkins 2008 - 24.0% overall / 25.0% road (both very low)
Bergesen 2008 - no data (i also tend to stay away from games with limited pitcher stats)

perkins 2009 - 3/5 overall 1/1 road
bergesen 2009 - 0/3 overall 0/2 home

 

[thatoneguy]

yeah well, i didn't have the stones to follow you yesterday, so i gotta make up for it somehow

 

[lazzonya]

yeah well, i didn't have the stones to follow you yesterday, so i gotta make up for it somehow

det / chw was a very strong NO for me.

i just never lay that much chalk.

 

[thatoneguy]

you sir, are a champion. i don't like that much juice either so i ended up going baltimore to score first, it's plus money most places

 

[Hip2Bsq]

No Official stats on this but I do record each game if a run scored in the first inning this '09 season. Fla. seems to be a high pct. of "yes" so far. They either give one up or score one, it seems like 2 out of 3. I can go back and take a count.

 

[lazzonya]

No Official stats on this but I do record each game if a run scored in the first inning this '09 season. Fla. seems to be a high pct. of "yes" so far. They either give one up or score one, it seems like 2 out of 3. I can go back and take a count.

don't bother...

<TABLE class=tborder id=post6669607 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_6669607 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid"><TABLE style="WIDTH: 144pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=192 border=0 x:str=""><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl22 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>
</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle colSpan=2>Overall Runs</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl22 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>TEAM</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle>Scored</TD><TD class=xl24 align=middle>Allowed</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>ARI</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.17857142857142858">17.86%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.17857142857142858">17.86%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>ATL</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.30769230769230771">30.77%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.34615384615384615">34.62%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>BAL</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.51851851851851849">51.85%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.37037037037037035">37.04%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>BOS</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.35714285714285715">35.71%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.25">25.00%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>CHC</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.37037037037037035">37.04%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.25925925925925924">25.93%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>CHW</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.11538461538461539">11.54%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.26923076923076922">26.92%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>CIN</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.26923076923076922">26.92%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.38461538461538464">38.46%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>CLE</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.25925925925925924">25.93%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.33333333333333331">33.33%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>COL</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.24">24.00%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.24">24.00%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>DET</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.23076923076923078">23.08%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.19230769230769232">19.23%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>FLA</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.37037037037037035">37.04%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.51851851851851849">51.85%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>HOU</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.2857142857142857">28.57%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.39285714285714285">39.29%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>KC</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.2857142857142857">28.57%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.35714285714285715">35.71%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>LAA</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.15384615384615385">15.38%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.46153846153846156">46.15%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>LAD</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.51724137931034486">51.72%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.27586206896551724">27.59%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>MIL</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.32142857142857145">32.14%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.32142857142857145">32.14%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>MIN</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.35714285714285715">35.71%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.32142857142857145">32.14%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>NYM</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.48">48.00%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.32">32.00%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>NYY</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.34615384615384615">34.62%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.30769230769230771">30.77%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>OAK</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.2">20.00%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.28">28.00%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>PHI</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.21739130434782608">21.74%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.34782608695652173">34.78%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>PIT</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.38461538461538464">38.46%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.38461538461538464">38.46%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>SD</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.2857142857142857">28.57%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.25">25.00%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>SEA</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.2857142857142857">28.57%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.21428571428571427">21.43%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>SF</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.19230769230769232">19.23%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.23076923076923078">23.08%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>STL</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.37037037037037035">37.04%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.29629629629629628">29.63%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>TB</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.34482758620689657">34.48%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.41379310344827586">41.38%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>TEX</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.42307692307692307">42.31%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.15384615384615385">15.38%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>TOR</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.4">40.00%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="0.36666666666666664">36.67%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" vAlign=bottom height=17><TD class=xl23 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" align=middle height=17>WAS</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.28">28.00%</TD><TD class=xl25 align=middle bgColor=#ffff00 x:num="00.36">36.00%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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[kreitmaster]

Good call laying off the O's game.

 

[Hip2Bsq]

I did not really want to ask for that Lazz, but somehow I knew you already had it.
I learned something today..... Play the Yes when the Mets/Marlins get together and the Angels/Orioles play each other.

 

[kreitmaster]

Hey Lazz, do you find that those percentages tend to even out a bit over the course of the year or do the teams with a high percentage of first inning runs now a month in usually stay at a similar clip throughout the year? Thanks for sharing your picks btw, very impressive.

 

[lazzonya]

i was wondering the same thing last season (which is why i added a function to my spreadsheet that allows me to calculate only a certain date range if i want to). i can break the numbers down to, say the last 15 days, if i want.

in 2008, i would say that 65%-70% of the early trends pretty much continued throughout the season. i will include information (such as "in their last 15 games") in many of my posts as the season develops. the pitchers remained even more consistent.

peace

lazzonya