Thursday's Bowl Action
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS (7-5) vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS (7-5)
Bahamas Bowl
Thomas Robinson Stadium - Bahamas
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Western Michigan -5, Total: 65
Two surging teams will spend Christmas Eve in the Bahamas when Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan play in Nassau.
The Blue Raiders (8-4 ATS) are coming off a perfect 4-0 November (SU and ATS) while the Broncos (7-5 ATS) are 6-2 SU in their past eight games, including a road upset at Toledo in the regular-season finale. Expect plenty of passing in this matchup, as Middle Tennessee freshman QB Brent Stockstill has thrown for more than 250 yards in 10 straight games while Western Michigan boasts a pair of 1,200-yard pass catchers in WRs Daniel Braverman (103 rec, 12 TD) and Corey Davis (82 rec, 11 TD).
Both teams have huge betting trends in their favor, as the Blue Raiders are 21-10 ATS after 2+ straight ATS wins under head coach Rick Stockstill, and the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons in non-home games after committing less than two turnovers. All of the significant injuries in this game are Middle Tennessee ailments, as six players are listed as questionable -- RB Jeremiah Bryson, TE Tyler Barron, DE Jahmal Jones, DB Jeremy Cutrer and LBs Myles Harges and Anfornee Stewart.
Middle Tennessee has scored a strong 34.2 PPG on 464 total YPG this season, but those numbers slip to a pedestrian 24.2 PPG on 402 total YPG in six games away from home (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS). The Blue Raiders have a nearly even split of running plays (40 per game) and pass attempts (38 per game), but while the ground game is average (155 YPG on 3.9 YPC), the air attack is potent (309 YPG on 8.1 YPA).
Freshman QB Brent Stockstill (67% completions, 3,678 pass yds, 27 TD, 8 INT) has been nearly perfect in the past two games with completing 51-of-68 passes (75%) for 579 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT. He's done a nice job getting rid of the football quickly too, absorbing only 14 sacks all season. It helps to have a pair of excellent pass catchers in WRs Richie James (100 rec, 1,220 yds, 6 TD) and Ed'Marques Batties (77 rec, 960 yds, 13 TD). The freshman James has at least six catches in every game this season and has fallen below 70 receiving yards just once all year, a 73-14 blowout of Charlotte. The senior Batties has four multi-touchdown games in 2015, but has found the end zone just once in the past three tilts.
Top RB Jordan Parker has career-low 468 rushing yards, but the senior has been able to pick up 106 yards and 2 TD on just 21 carries over the past two games.
On defense, Middle Tennessee has been amazing in the past three contests with allowing only 10.3 PPG on 304 total YPG, but the club still surrenders 31.8 PPG and 427 total YPG in six games away from home. Overall, the Blue Raiders are better in stopping the run (144 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than they are defending the pass (247 YPG on 6.5 YPA). They also love to get after the football with multiple takeaways on six different occasions, but their Thursday opponent has committed just eight turnovers in the past nine games.
Western Michigan's lack of mistakes allows for an impressive 35.2 PPG and 481 total YPG this season. This attack leans slightly towards the run, as the team chooses to keep the ball on the ground 56% of the time, leading to 197 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. But the hefty 34:12 average time of possession also calls for plenty of throws, as the Broncos rack up 283 passing YPG on 9.0 YPA.
Junior QB Zach Terrell completes 67% of his attempts for 3,225 yards (8.8 YPA), 27 TD and 8 INT, with most of that production going to the dynamic duo of WRs Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis, who have combined for 185 receptions, 2,519 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2015. The junior Braverman started the season with five straight games of 100+ receiving yards, but has reached 80 yards just twice over the past seven contests. But Davis, who is also a junior, has picked up at least 105 receiving yards in each of his past six games and has scored six times in the past four contests.
The Broncos also have a capable ball carrier in freshman RB Jamauri Bogan (836 rush yds, 5.8 YPC) who has all produced all 12 of his touchdowns in the past seven games. After gaining at least four yards per carry in each of his first 11 collegiate contests, Bogan was held to 0.3 YPC in the regular-season finale when he rushed just seven times for two yards.
The WMU defense has been on the field for less than 26 minutes per game this year, but it still allows 28.1 PPG on 411 total YPG, including a hefty 32.7 PPG on 478 total YPG in the past three contests. While the front seven allows 187 rushing YPG on a hefty 5.3 YPC, the secondary gives up 225 YPG on 7.4 YPA. The Broncos have only one takeaway in each of the past four games, but will look to get after the football in this matchup with a Middle Tennessee State team that has committed 27 turnovers this season.
CINCINNATI BEARCATS (7-5) vs. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (10-3)
Hawaii Bowl
Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Diego State -1.5, Total: 56.5
San Diego State seeks its 10th straight victory when it travels to Hawaii on Christmas Eve to face the high-powered Cincinnati offense.
Neither team will have the services of its top quarterback, as the Aztecs are missing QB Maxwell Smith (knee) while the Bearcats will be without QB Gunner Kiel who is dealing with a personal matter. Both schools will have to rely on freshmen under center, as San Diego State QB Christian Chapman will make his second start, while Cincinnati will turn to freshman QB Hayden Moore to operate on offense that has 36.1 PPG and 559 total YPG this season. But it won't be easy to gain yards against a San Diego State team with nine straight wins (7-1-1 ATS) on the backs of a defense limiting those nine opponents to a mere 12.7 PPG.
Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is just 2-7 in his bowl career, while Bearcats head coach Tommy Tuberville is 7-5 in his career, including six wins in his past nine bowls. However, SDSU bettors can point to Tuberville's 0-8 ATS record in non-conference away games as Cincinnati's head coach. But those siding with the Bearcats can feel good about their 10-2 ATS mark in the second half of the season in the past two years. Other than the missing quarterbacks, Cincinnati WR Johnny Holton (hamstring) is questionable and San Diego State DL Christian Heyward is out after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the team's last game.
Although Cincinnati gains twice as many yards through the air (373 YPG on 8.7 YPA) as it does on the ground (186 YPG on 4.7 YPC), the team is nearly split with 43 passes per game and 40 rushes per contest. QB Hayden Moore has already appeared in eight games this season, totaling 1,683 yards on 59% completions and 8.6 YPA, but has just 9 TD and 8 INT. Moore showed off his strong arm in a 53-46 loss at Memphis on Sept. 24 when he threw for a whopping 557 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. His top target is senior WR Shaq Washington, who gained 120 yards in that Memphis loss and is also coming off a season-high 15 catches and 124 receiving yards in the win at East Carolina.
When the Bearcats keep the football on the ground, they have three strong ball carriers to choose from. Senior RB Hosey Williams leads the club with 727 yards (5.6 YPC), but has just one touchdown over the past five games. Sophomore RB Mike Boone is the speedster with 717 yards on 7.5 YPC and 8 TD, but he has been held to 3.5 YPC in each of the past two games. Junior RB Tion Green is the short-yardage back at 230 pounds, and is enjoying career highs in rushing yards (697), yards per carry (4.9) and touchdowns (eight).
The Cincinnati defense has been burned for 30.2 PPG on 415 total YPG this year, including 39.7 PPG and 511 total YPG in the past three contests. Neither the front seven (191 rush YPG, 5.0 YPC) nor the secondary (224 pass YPG, 6.8 YPA) has provided much resistance this season. This isn't a very opportunistic bunch either with a total of 14 takeaways in the 2015 season, and the Bearcats can't bank on any turnovers from an Aztecs offense with only three giveaways in the past seven games combined.
San Diego State has scored at least 27 points in eight straight games, and its 36.7 PPG and 412 total YPG over the past three contests has increased its season numbers to 31.4 PPG on 378 total YPG. The Aztecs are a run-oriented offense that keeps the football on the ground for 73% of its plays, which results in 235 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. Junior RB Donnel Pumphrey (1,554 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 16 TD) is tough to wrap up at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, and is also a capable receiver with 27 catches for 397 yards and three scores. In his last game, Pumphrey rushed for 90 yards, which ended a streak of eight straight contests with at least 120 rushing yards.
SDSU also has a bruising back in 200-pound RB Chase Price (940 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD). The senior has a pair of 150-yard rushing efforts this year and has found the end zone seven times in his past seven contests. QB Christian Chapman played very well in the MWC championship win over Air Force by completing 9-of-14 throws for 203 yards (14.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Five of those receptions were by senior WR Jemond Hazely, whose 78 yards were a season high.
The Aztecs defense has held opponents to a mere 17.2 PPG on 288 total YPG this year. The run-stop unit is downright stingy at 112 rushing YPG allowed on 3.2 YPC, but the secondary can also play with just 177 YPG allowed on 53% completions and 6.6 YPA, while recording 20 interceptions (6th-most in FBS). Over the past six games, San Diego State has tallied a whopping 18 takeaways, and Cincinnati's offense has 3+ turnovers on six different occasions this year.
