NBA Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
Despite starting the season 5-7 straight up and 4-8 against the spread, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag never removed Cleveland as the top betting choice (3/1) to win this year’s NBA Finals.
Unlike the NFL where the so-called pundits flip-flop every Monday morning, those following the Association understand that the season is a marathon and it takes time to develop chemistry.
Some may forget that when LeBron James joined Miami in the 2010-11 season, the Heat started the season with a pedestrian 9-8 record. They quietly closed with a 49-16 (.753) record and reached the NBA Finals.
Is it déjà vu for LeBron in Cleveland?
Since the sluggish start, the Lebron and the Cavaliers have ripped off eight straight wins. During this run, they’ve helped bettors with a 5-3 record versus the number.
At 13-7, it might be hard for Cleveland to eclipse its regular season Win Total of 58 ½ set by the oddsmakers but you just never know, especially when you play in the Eastern Conference.
It should be noted all of the Cavaliers' wins during their current eight-game winning streak were against opponents in the East.
Overall, Cleveland is 11-3 versus the East and just 2-4 both SU and ATS against the Western Conference.
The Cavaliers have a chance to improve on that record against the West when it visits Oklahoma City (8-13 SU, 11-10-1 ATS). The Thunder have started out slow due to key injuries but they’re finally healthy and appear to be in solid form heading into the final three quarters of the season.
Since the league’s reigning Most Valuable Player Kevin Durant made his season debut on Dec. 2, the Thunder have gone 3-1. However, be aware that the three victories were against the 76ers, Pistons and Bucks, which tells you that this matchup is a big test for Oklahoma City as well. Durant is averaging just under 30 minutes in the four games but should see extended time for this game.
Oddsmakers opened Oklahoma City as a 2 ½-point home favorite over Cleveland.
Despite not having LeBron on its roster, Cleveland has gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four encounters against Oklahoma City, which includes a 114-104 road victory last season as 15-point underdogs.
Oklahoma City has gone 5-5 SU and 8-2 ATS this season while Cleveland has gone 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS on the road.
The Cavaliers have been underdogs twice this season and they’ve produced outright wins at Chicago (114-108) on Oct. 31 and at Toronto (105-91) on Dec. 5.
Total bettors should note that Oklahoma City (15-6) and Cleveland (11-7-2) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season.
The numbers on the Thunder are a tad misleading since their offense was limited early in the season but the Cavaliers are looking solid defensively. During their current winning streak, they’re holding opponents to 91.6 points per game.
Offensively, Cleveland has picked it up as well. In the same eight games, the Cavaliers are averaging 106.3 PPG.
The total on Thursday’s matchup opened 201 and was spiked up to 203.
TNT will provided coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.
Houston (16-4 SU, 11-9 ATS) at Sacramento (11-11 SU, 13-8-1 ATS)
The TNT double-header concludes on the West Coast at 10:35 p.m. ET as the Kings and Rockets clash from Sleep Train Arena in Northern California. Oddsmakers didn’t post an overnight line on this matchup due to key injuries for both squads.
James Harden (back) is ‘questionable’ and Dwight Howard (knee) is ‘doubtful’ for Houston while the Kings are likely to see DeMarcus Cousins (illness) sit out again.
Houston could be fatigued for this game after playing at Golden State last night. This will be the sixth game this season that the Rockets will be playing on zero days rest. In the first five situations, Houston has produced a solid 4-1 record both SU and ATS. Another factor that could have you backing the Rockets on Thursday is their 8-1 record (6-5 ATS) on the road.
Sacramento has been steady at home (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) but not having Cousins hurts the team. He’s missed seven games due to viral meningitis and the Kings are 2-5 during this span, three of the losses coming at home.
The Rockets ran past the Kings 102-89 on Nov. 26 as 4 ½-point home favorites. Last season, the pair split the four head-to-head meetings and both teams captured a road victory.
Total Trend
Those of you reading my NFL Total Talk columns know that I like to inform you of seasonal trends that could help your handicapping. With that being said, the national TNT games have created a trend that’s worth noting.
Tuesday, Oct. 28
Dallas 100 San Antonio 101 (Under 203)
Houston 108 L.A. Lakers 90 (Under 207)
Thursday, Oct. 30
New York 95 Cleveland 90 (Under 204)
Oklahoma City 90 L.A. Clippers 93 (Under 205.5)
Thursday, Nov. 6
San Antonio 81 Houston 98 (Under 179)
Dallas 87 Portland 108 (Under 209.5)
Thursday, Nov. 13
Chicago 100 Toronto 93 (Under 196.5)
Brooklyn 99 Golden State 107 (Under 210.5)
Thursday, Nov. 20
L.A. Clippers 110 at Miami 93 (Over 197.5)
Chicago 88 at Sacramento 103 (Under 195.5)
Thursday, Nov. 27
No Games (Thanksgiving)
Thursday, Dec. 4
Cleveland 90 at New York 87 (Under 198)
New Orleans 85 at Golden State (Under 206.5)
Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 11-1 in the first 12 games played on TNT this season. Personally, I’m a believer that all things will eventually balance out but I would still handicap the games based on matchups and keep this trend in your back pocket.
