Big 12, SEC heat up Thursday
LSU TIGERS (7-4) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-4)
TV/Time: FS1, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -3.5, Total: 50.5
Two struggling SEC teams desperate for a win will collide on Thanksgiving night when LSU visits Texas A&M.
The Tigers are certainly talented, as they have victories this season against both Wisconsin and Ole Miss, but have also lost SU and ATS to Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Overall they are 7-4 ATS while covering in each one of their victories and are coming off a bad loss to the Razorbacks by a score of 17-0 as 2-point underdogs on the road on Nov. 15. It was Arkansas’ first win against the Tigers in 18 tries as LSU managed a putrid 123 yards of offense and 2.3 yards per play.
The Aggies have had a similar season with huge wins over South Carolina and Auburn, but ran into a juggernaut in the middle part of their schedule as they were defeated by Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama by a combined 91 points over three consecutive games. They most recently absorbed a loss to Missouri on Nov. 15 by a score of 34-27 as 3.5-point favorites at home, bringing their ATS record this season to just 4-7, while they have covered only once in their past seven attempts.
The Aggies defense just could not hold the Tigers offense in check as they totaled 587 yards, which included 335 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). LSU has won this matchup (SU and ATS) in each of the past three seasons while having an average margin of victory of 15.3 PPG.
Last year the Tigers dominated in a 34-10 game as 3-point favorites at home behind 517 yards of offense and two forced turnovers. Bettors should also know that LSU is an impressive 17-4 ATS (81%) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in its previous contest since 1992 while Texas A&M is 33-18 ATS (65%) in home games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the same timeframe.
On the injury front, HB Kenny Hilliard (undisclosed) is out for the remainder of the season for LSU, while the Aggies come into this one without any significant omissions from their lineup.
The Tigers have had a solid year rushing the ball (204.5 YPG) as they rank 35th in the nation while gaining a meager 169.1 YPG through the air (112th in FBS) and just 28.0 PPG of offense (74th in nation).
QB Anthony Jennings (1,353 pass yards, 9 TD, 6 INT) has really struggled in the past two games, combining to go 20-for-48 (42%) for 163 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He is not leaned on much for this team as he has eclipsed 200 passing yards just once on the year.
HB Leonard Fournette (745 rush yards, 7 TD) has been a bright spot for this team as a freshman, as he has hit triple digits in rushing yards three times this season. HB Terrance Magee (471 rush yards, 3 TD) has also done well while averaging 5.4 YPC and is now the primary backup with Hilliard out for the year. WR Travis Dural (747 rec yards, 7 TD) has posted an excellent 21.3 yards per catch, but does not get the volume as he has caught a mere 14 balls over the past six games combined. Meanwhile, WR Malachi Dupre (277 rec yards, 5 TD) has also been a big red-zone threat while getting tons of yards per catch (21.3 avg).
The defense is what keeps this team winning, as it has allowed 16.4 PPG (5th in FBS) this year behind the strong play of LB Kwon Alexander (72 tackles, 7 TFL) and DL Danielle Hunter (63 tackles, 12 TFL).
Texas A&M has focused on the passing game and excelled with 321.2 YPG through the air (10th in nation) while adding 148.2 rushing YPG (88th in FBS), all resulting in them scoring the 23rd-most points in FBS (36.0 PPG).
The downfall of QB Kenny Hill (2,649 pass yards, 23 TD, 8 INT) has given way to freshman QB Kyle Allen (884 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) who has thrown seven touchdowns and two interceptions over the past two games while hitting on better than 65% of his passes each time. He has seen his attempts increase in each of the past three contests, and was rated the No. 1 pocket passer among college QB prospects coming into the year.
HBs Tra Carson (431 rush yards, 5 TD) and Trey Williams (412 rush yards, 5 TD) have combined to average 5.4 YPC while neither player has really had a breakout performance this season. WRs Josh Reynolds (746 rec yards, 12 TD), Malcome Kennedy (526 rec yards, 4 TD), Speedy Noil (513 rec yards, 4 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (443 rec yards, 4 TD) all have 40+ receptions on the year while Reynolds is coming off his best game of the season in which he caught five passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns.
The Aggies have not done well on the defensive side of things while giving up 27.7 PPG on the year (75th in nation) and have surrendered an average of 36.0 PPG and 584.5 total YPG over their past two contests. DL Myles Garrett (11 sacks, 46 tackles) and DB Deshazor Everett (65 tackles, 1 INT) will need to perform at their highest levels to have a chance come Thursday.
TCU HORNED FROGS (9-1) at TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-5)
TV/Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -6.5, Total: 56.5
No. 5 TCU looks to get closer to a playoff berth as they travel to Austin to take on Texas on Thanksgiving night.
The Horned Frogs were off last week, which followed a major struggle in a narrow 34-30 win at 28-point underdog Kansas. However, TCU was still able to win its fifth straight game (3-2 ATS) where it has averaged 46.0 PPG. The Longhorns have had some ups and downs in head coach Charlie Strong’s first season, but the team is playing its best football right now.
Texas has won its past three games (SU and ATS) by a combined score of 95 to 36, which included a 33-16 win against then-No. 23 West Virginia. But that was the only ranked team the Longhorns have beaten, as they are 1-4 SU versus top-25 schools, with two of those defeats coming at home.
Last year, these two teams played in Fort Worth, with the 3-point underdog Longhorns winning, 30-7. Texas dominated the game, outgaining the Horned Frogs 415 to 246, including 187 to 45 on the ground. But in the first Big 12 meeting between these schools in Austin in 2012, TCU prevailed 20-13 by outrushing the Longhorns 217 to 86. Both schools have powerful betting trends against them, as excellent offensive road favorites (34+ PPG) facing an average defense (21 to 28 PPG allowed) after a win by six points or less are just 9-31 ATS (23%) in the past 10 seasons, but underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent coming off a road win are just 25-63 ATS (28%) in the past 10 seasons.
There are a couple of key offensive injuries in this game with TCU RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder) considered questionable to play, while Texas WR Jaxon Shipley (leg) has been upgraded to probable.
The Horned Frogs have been great on both sides of the ball this year, but it is the improvement of the offense that has this team within striking distance of the first college football playoffs. The offense ranks 2nd in FBS scoring (45.9 PPG), 8th in passing (323.6 YPG) and 28th in rushing (218 YPG).
Junior QB Trevone Boykin (3,021 pass yards, 548 rush yards, 31 total TD) had many doubters last season when he threw just 7 TD with 7 INT, but is now one of the top candidates for the Heisman trophy with 24 passing TD and only 5 INT. He is a tremendous athlete, but his improved composure and poise has helped him take the next step as a quarterback.
RB Aaron Green (677 rush yards, 8.3 YPC, 6 TD) is a speedster who is tough to stop once he gets to the second level of the defense. His backfield mate, junior RB B.J. Catalon (493 rush yards, 5.0 YPC, 10 TD) has battled some injuries, but he is the guy that can take over the game late when TCU needs some first downs.
At receiver, junior WRs Josh Doctson (693 rec yards, 7 TD), Kolby Listenbee (606 rec yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (486 rec yards, 7 TD) are all capable of going for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns on any given game.
Other than the 61-58 loss at Baylor, the TCU defense has played very well this season. The unit gives up 23.1 PPG (35th in FBS), and has one of the biggest playmakers in the country on that side of the ball in LB Paul Dawson (105 tackles, 15 TFL, 5 sacks, 3 INT, 2 FF). Dawson can make plays anywhere on the field, in any kind of situation. He has the ability to guard slot receivers when needed, and can cause a lot of havoc in the backfield. In the secondary, S Chris Hackett (6 INT, 66 tackles, 3.5 TFL) can not only cover, but he is not afraid to come up and make plays against the run as well.
It has been a tough season in Austin, but the Longhorns are playing their best football at the end of the season. The offense has been up-and-down, ranking 77th in FBS rushing (154.0 YPG), 80th in passing (212.9 YPG) and 98th in scoring (23.7 PPG).
Sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,152 pass yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) has steadily improved since being thrown into the starting job, showing the potential that has Longhorns fans' hopes high for the future. He is a threat to make plays with both his arm and legs, and at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he can be very difficult for defenses to tackle. The ground game of RBs Malcolm Brown (654 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 TD) and Johnathan Gray (627 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 7 TD) has been inconsistent, but both backs are capable of having big days.
The Horned Frogs are going to focus on stopping those two, so the Texas air attack will have to perform at a high level. WR John Harris (59 catches, 976 yards, 7 TD) is the big-play threat on the roster, using his size and speed to get behind the defense. Senior WR Jaxon Shipley (58 catches, 571 yards, 1 TD) complements him perfectly, going over the middle and making the tough catches. He is being slowed by a leg injury, but he should be good to go on Thursday night.
The defense has been great all year, ranking 24th in the country in points allowed (21.0 PPG). LBs Jordan Hicks (136 tackles, 12 TFL, 2.5 sacks) and Steve Edmond (116 tackles, 12 TFL, 4.5 sacks) are one of the best tackling duos in college football. Both of them do a great job of stopping the run, while also getting pressure on the quarterback. In the secondary, senior CB Quandre Diggs (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3 INT) is the heart and soul of this defense, always rallying the team when it needs it.
