Dr Bob ; NFL
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Lean – DETROIT (+3/+2.5) over Minnesota
The Lion’s resurgent offense has them back in the playoff picture for this Thanksgiving Day game. Detroit is averaging 6.6 yards per play in their last 4 games without a credible rushing attack as Matthew Stafford threw for 8.9 yards per pass play during the stretch. However, I expect some Lions’ regression this week against a Vikings defense allowing 4.7 yards per play, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. Everson Griffen’s 10 sacks rank 4th in the NFL and Minnesota’s pass rush will enoy a good matchup against a Detroit offensive line allowing an 8.4% sack rate (27th).
The Vikings ground game is showing signs of life for the first time since the Davlin Cook injury. Minnesota gained 4.9 yards per rush last week against the Rams and they will face a struggling Lions rush defense on Thursday. Detroit surrendered 6.3 ypr combined over the last three weeks and I expect the Vikings to find success running the football.
I thought my model would favor Minnesota but the line has moved and now there is no line value. However, the technical analysis does favor Detroit, as the Lions apply to a 198-119-4 ATS match-up situation that plays high-scoring teams at home against good defensive teams. I’ll lean slightly with Detroit based on that angle.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
Strong Opinion – DALLAS (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to play in this game and he’ll provide a boost for the Dallas offense that averaged just 3.8 yppl and 8 points per game with him out of the lineup the last 2 weeks. Even without Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys rushing attack should excel against a Chargers defense surrendering 4.9 yards per rush (31st).
On the other side of the ball, Dallas will be without linebacker Sean Lee again. Throughout his career, the Dallas defense is nearly a point per game worse when Lee is not on the field. However, I expect the Dallas defense to be motivated after being embarrassed last Sunday night and DeMarcus Lawrence, tied for the league lead in sacks, has an easy matchup against a banged up Joe Barksdale.
The look-ahead line for this game was Dallas -4 and we have seen massive movement based on last week’s disparate performances. The Chargers beat the Bills by 30 but were actually outgained in yards per play for the game and certainly benefitted from some terrible Nathan Peterman interceptions. Dallas definitely looked poor against the Eagles but I expect the return of Tyron Smith to improve their recent offensive woes and often the worse a team has looked in recent weeks the better bets they are. In fact, teams that scored less than 10 points for the second consecutive game the previous week are 37-8-1 ATS the last 10 seasons (31-4-1 ATS if they have at least one win on the season). If the opponent has a win percentage of .500 or less the record is 25-1 ATS, which applies here (the Chargers are 4-6). Dallas actually has a better record than the Chargers and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 1 ½ points with Lee out. There are also a few other good contrary situations that favor the Cowboys and the combination of a good situation and line value is enough for me to consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Lean – New York Giants (+7) over WASHINGTON
Lean – Under (44.5)
Washington running back Chris Thompson will miss the rest of the season, which hurts the Redskins more than missing a typical running back would. Thompson has been responsible for 22% of Washington’s total yardage this season and is one of the most dangerous pass-catching running backs in the league. Rushing production is easier to replace than receiving production of running backs, as we have seen with Arizona losing David Johnson. Thompson’s 9.4 yards per target is extremely high for a running back and he is a large part of the Redskins 8th-ranked passing offense (2nd in receiving yards on the team) and Kirk Cousins will need to find other targets on Sunday that most likely will not be as efficient.
The Giants offense failed to reach 5 yards per play on Sunday for the fourth time in five games without their top two receivers, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall. Filling in for the injured Justin Pugh, backup right tackle Chad Wheeler will have his hands full going up against Ryan Kerrigan. Wheeler allowed 4 hurries in 37 pass blocks in his first start lined up against Justin Houston last week and his ability to protect Eli Manning may be pivotal in this game.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Giants offense could be effective. New York’s rushing offense ranks 16th since the Beckham and Marshall injuries and they have a nice matchup against a Redskins rush defense ranked 28th in my metrics. Furthermore, the Redskins have surrendered the second most receiving yards to opposing tight ends and Evan Engram, averaging almost 8 targets per game, should have good success.
Our model was on both of these teams last week (Best Bet on Washington and Strong Opinion on the Giants) and part of the reason I liked the Giants is because I thought they’d want to prove that they haven’t quit. With this game being nationally televised I certainly expect the Giants to play with pride once again and if New York plays to their potential then they are likely to stay within a touchdown. I’ll lean with the Giants at +7 or more and our model also likes the Under.
