TNF - Packers at Seahawks
Tony Mejia
Green Bay at Seattle (-3, 49), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN
The first meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson produced one of the NFL’s most memorable finishes. You remember the “Fail Mary,” right? Replacement refs butchered the call, Golden Tate was awarded a touchdown he didn’t deserve and the Packers went home losers of a game in which Rodgers was sacked eight times.
The Packers star won his first visit to Seattle but comes into Thursday night’s crucial clash against the Seahawks 1-2 at Century Link Field, having also lost the 2014 season opener. Rodgers has posted wins in each of the past three seasons, but all of those meetings came at Lambeau Field.
This latest matchup finds both perennial NFC title contenders on the outside looking in as far as making the playoffs is concerned. With this being the 10th game for both, the sense of urgency is ratcheted up as all excuses go out the window. It doesn’t matter that this is a short week for both or that this will be the fourth time each takes the field in a 20-day span. The winner gets to have a nice, hopeful Thanksgiving while the loser faces a miserable time since they’ll be a sub-.500 team facing must-wins the rest of the way.
Green Bay has yet to win on the road this season, losing to heavyweights like the Rams and Patriots in addition to setbacks against the Redskins and Lions. The 12th Man has only witnessed a single Seahawks victory this season – way back in September against Dallas. Seattle came up short against the Rams and Chargers in games they were in all four quarters, but its feared homefield advantage has been neutralized of late.
Dating back to November of last season, the Seahawks have won only two of seven home games. They fell 36-31 against the Rams on Sunday, coming up short on a comeback bid as Wilson tried to rally his team despite starting RB Chris Carson being scratched prior to kickoff.
Wilson, who has thrown three touchdown passes in four of the past five games, ran for a season-best 92 yards in the loss, his highest total since Nov. 2014. Clearly, desperation has set in as he’s hit ‘whatever it takes’ mode since he’d rushed for just 118 yards over his first eight starts.
Jared Goff and Todd Gurley dominated a new-look Seattle defense that surrendered a season-high 36 points, so they’ll be under pressure to turn things around with Rodgers coming into town fresh off his fifth consecutive game without throwing an interception.
Despite still being hampered by a knee issue since being injured in Week 1, Rodgers ran a season-high six times in posting a 31-12 home win over the Dolphins that helped snap a two-game losing streak. His TD-to-INT ratio is 17-1, so it’s going to be difficult for the Seahawks to turn him over. Only Jared Goff has managed to pass for over 300 yards against Seattle’s defense over the past eight weeks, and they do rank seventh with 10 interceptions and eighth with six forced fumbles.
The Packers will be facing the NFL’s top rushing offense at full strength since Carson is expected to return from the hip injury that sidelined him in L.A. Rookie Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis teamed with Wilson to try and effectively play keep-away from the Rams offense, giving them a chance and ultimately, helping score a backdoor cover despite the loss.
Expect a heavy dose of the run since Pete Carroll knows enough that he doesn’t fully trust his defense to contain Rodgers and will want to control possession. Green Bay leads the NFL with 31 sacks and has DT Kenny Clark playing at an extremely high level, so the Seahawks will likely look to protect Wilson by riding the ground game so long as they remain within striking distance.
Weather won’t be a factor on what’s expected to be a clear, 50-degree night in Seattle, so the offense should have solid conditions to work with. Read on for thoughts on the total, line movements, injury news, info on past meetings, props and next week’s betting numbers.
