Inside the Paint – Thursday
The Oklahoma City franchise is playing in its 10th season this year since it relocated from Seattle. What’s amazing is that the team has made the playoffs in seven of nine seasons and that includes four trips to the Western Conference Finals and one ticket to the NBA Finals.
They made a name for themselves as contenders through the draft as the franchise hit the jackpot on three consecutive first-round draft picks from 2007 to 2009 in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
As most of you know, Durant and Harden are no longer with the Thunder anymore but they still have the NBA's reigning Most Valuable Player in Westbrook.
Despite making the playoffs last summer, the club decided to take a shot this offseason with a “Big Three” approach by acquiring Paul George from the Pacers and Carmelo Anthony from the Knicks via trades.
A lot of pundits started labeling them as contenders again but that hasn’t been the case through the first 10 games of the season. Oklahoma City (4-6 straight up, 4-6 against the spread) hasn’t lived up to its expectations and the addition of George and Anthony have certainly tempered Westbrook’s game.
Last year he averaged a triple-double and while he’s not far from repeating that effort, his points per game has dipped from 31.6 to 20.1. It’s not surprising to see the drop but I assumed that George and Anthony would have to cater to the MVP, not the opposite.
All three can fill up the stat sheet on any given night, but none of them have shown consistent range from the outside and the Thunder’s 3-point shooting (34%) is ranked 21st in the league. The offense is ranked 23rd in scoring with 102.5 PPG and what’s really surprising is that they’re not getting to the free throw line (19.5) this season.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia dropped Oklahoma City from 7th to 13th in his weekly Power Poll and he provided us with his thoughts on the club.
“Losing at the Kings was an eye-opener because it marked the first time where they fell against inferior competition. In the season-opening win over New York and a visit to overmatched Chicago, the Thunder won by a combined margin of 53 points. The rest of their games throughout this slow start have come against some quality opponents, mostly on the road. In that sense, there's still hope that this experiment will work out fine, but new roles aren't an excuse given an 0-3 record against Minnesota and Boston, teams that have also incorporated significant new pieces,” said Mejia.
Not only is Oklahoma City 1-4 versus teams that currently sit above .500 but they don’t own a win this season against the Western Conference (0-5).
Mejia added, “It's on Billy Donovan to work out an offensive system that will keep things simple enough for these guys to improvise, since it's no coincidence they've yet to break 100 points in November and seem to be laboring at a slower pace. There's no reason to believe a quick fix is coming given how challenging a back-to-back in Denver and then home for the Clippers will be. They'll get in the lab and work on some stuff with a pair of winnable home games against the woeful Mavs and Bulls coming up following the L.A. game, but I wouldn't give points again until they demonstrate consistency. The Sacramento loss was brutal. No one looks comfortable."
On Thursday, OKC will try to get right as it visits Denver (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS). The Nuggets have been a mystery as well this season and if it wasn’t for facing seven teams (4-3) from the East early, who knows where this club would stand. Denver has only been underdogs twice this season and they certainly haven’t been a good investment when laying points.
The oddsmakers sent out OKC as a short road favorite (-1) and I would expect it to remain in that neighborhood. Denver is a respectable 4-2 at home and 0-1 when listed as a ‘dog.
Both clubs have a lot of new faces but it should be noted that Oklahoma City has won nine of the last 10 encounters in this series and that includes a run of five straight at the Pepsi Center. The two meetings at this venue last season were decided by a combined four points and many of you might recall Westbrook’s buzzer beater last April that finished off the Nuggets. The league MVP finished with 50 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists. The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 during this span.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Along with this late-night tip, we have four other quality matchups in the NBA on Thursday.
L.A. Lakers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Washington (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
This is a quick rematch as Washington (-10½) will look to avenge a 102-99 overtime loss to the Lakers on Oct. 25 as 5½-point road favorites. The Wizards will be catching Los Angeles on no rest after the Lakers dropped a 107-66 decision at Boston last night. L.A. has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS on zero days rest this season albeit the wins came versus the Phoenix and Brooklyn. The Lakers sit at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road with the lone win coming versus the aforementioned Suns.
Washington has been a disappointment so far and while this certainly could be a ‘get-right’ game for them, I’d still be a little hesitant to lay the points. Make a note that the Hawks and Kings visit the Capital One Arena after this game, so head coach Scott Brooks and company have no excuses to get back on track.
The Wizards were a great team at home last season but that hasn’t been the case this year. They’ve burned bettors with a 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS mark which includes a current skid of three straight. Plus, two of those losses came at home as double-digit favorites to the Suns on Nov. 1 and this past Wednesday to the Mavericks, who was winless on the road prior to that victory.
Also, Washington has gone 2-4 (3-3 ATS) versus the Western Conference this season and that includes a 1-3 mark as a favorite. The Lakers are 3-2 against foes from the East this season.
New Orleans (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Toronto (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Even though it won’t receive as much attention, this is a great non-conference matchup and a solid test for both clubs. Toronto opened as a 4 ½-point home favorite and most shops were holding 5 as of this morning.
New Orleans has started 5-2 on the road and it will look to finish off its current road trip with a 4-0 record after defeating the Mavs, Bulls and Pacers in the first three games. Wins are wins and I don’t want to dismiss New Orleans and its pair of talented big men (Davis, Cousins) but they’ve been a bully this season. The Pels are 0-5 against teams with winning records and 6-0 versus sub .500 clubs.
If you stick with that angle, Toronto should be your lean. Plus, the Raptors are a solid home team (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) and their overall record is pretty solid considering they already had to embark on a six-game road trip to the West Coast.
The Raptors have won four straight against the Pelicans and eight of the last 10 meetings. The pair will finish off their season series next Wednesday (Nov. 15) when they meet in New Orleans.
Cleveland (5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS) at Houston (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS)
The Rockets opened as five-point favorites for this matchup while the total is 228. Houston enters this game on a roll, winning and covering three straight games while averaging 125 PPG during the streak. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense (113.9 PPG) remains a mess and they haven’t faced a team with the firepower comparable to Houston.
What’s strange about the Cavs is that they’ve gone 4-0 versus some of the top teams in the East (Celtics, Wizards, Bucks) but gave up a ton of points in losses to weaker teams in the Nets, Pacers and Hawks. Will Cleveland step up tonight? Outside of a come-from-behind road victory over Golden State in the opener, the Rockets really don’t have a signature win on their resume.
Last season, the pair split their regular season meetings with the home team winning both games as James Harden (39.5 PPG, 13 APG, 8.5 RPG) and LeBron James (24.5 PPG, 6.5 APG, 10 RPG) both nearly averaged a triple-double in those games. The Cavaliers were also helped immensely in those games with 30 PPG coming from Kyrie Irving.
Both teams bring 4-0 ‘over’ streaks into this contest.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS) at Sacramento (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS)
After a bit of a rough start that saw Philadelphia go 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS, the club has circled the wagons and ripped off five consecutive wins and covers. The oddsmakers continue to grade the club strong and the 76ers are laying a healthy price on the road (-6½) to the Kings tonight. Including the five wins in a row, Philly has covered seven straight and its gone 3-1 ATS in the role as a favorite this season.
Sacramento earned a solid 94-86 home win on Tuesday over Oklahoma City but it hasn’t won back-to-back games all season. The point-spread has only mattered in one game for Sac-Town. So when the Kings lose, they haven’t been competitive and that’s clearly attributed to an offense that is ranked last in scoring (93.8 PPG). Even when Philadelphia was tanking, it’s played rather well against Sacramento. The 76ers have gone 3-3 in the last six meetings and they covered all of those games (6-0 ATS).
