Packers vs. 49ers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
Week 9 starts with a NFC Championship rematch game between the Packers and the 49ers, and after getting spanked by San Francisco twice last year, including that NFC title game, the Packers have probably had their eyes on this game for some time now.
Positive memories might not be immediately there for the Packers when they see the Niners sharing the field for them, but there are quite a few things that have broken in Green Bay's favor this week.
Nobody likes to see anyone get hurt, but San Francisco losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle has to be viewed as good news for Packers fans, and now with the 49ers having virus issues and shutting down their facility on Wednesday, practice and prep time 24 hours before the game on the San Fran side of things takes a real hit.
Now, uncertainty about when they'll play the game could weigh on the Green Bay side of things too, but after an awful showing on Sunday against Minnesota – especially in trying to stop the run – can the Packers bounce back and take advantage of all these little edges that are seemingly adding up in their favor?
Or will a depleted 49ers team on offense lean even heavier on their rushing attack and find just as much success as the Vikings did running all over Green Bay?
Betting Resources
Week 9 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to avenge a pair of losses to the 49ers from last season. (AP)
Packers-49ers Betting Odds
Spread: Green Bay -5
Money-Line: Green Bay -240, San Francisco +200
Total: 50
2020 Betting Stats
Green Bay
Overall: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 26.7 (Rank 20)
Offense YPG: 394.6 (Rank 9)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 11)
San Francisco
Overall: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 21.6 (Rank 10)
Offense YPG: 378.6 (Rank 12)
Defense YPG: 314.6 (Rank 6)
Handicapping the Total
Even before the COVID news dropped in San Francisco on Wednesday, the Niners injury news was still known, and I'm not sure how either side of this total could have been confidently bet.
The 'under' would be the side to look at if you believe the Niners would employ a gameplan that's heavily run-based to keep Rodgers and company off the field, while exploiting that huge weakness in Green Bay's defense right now.
A constant running clock is always a friend to 'under' bettors, and TNF games tend to skew themselves to the low side of the total to begin with.
But to just assume that the Packers run defense will get gashed again as they did vs Minnesota is flawed thinking in it's own right. Think of it from the Packers point of view in that a self scouting session would quickly reveal how poor they've been against the run this year, and knowing the injury situation San Fran has, expecting to face plenty of runs is a pretty reasonable expectation for Green Bay.
That defense could even come up with a gameplan to force QB Nick Mullens to beat them with his arm, and how successful either scenario is for Green Bay is still questionable.
Not to mention, Rodgers could just go off and have a 4 TD game or something like that in the possessions he does get, instantly ruining any 'under' play.
For those looking at the 'over' here, you've got to worry about similar things, as it's just as flawed to strongly believe the Packers defense will figure out how to slow down the opposing running game even when they know it's coming, and if SF is successful at winning the time of possession and bleeding the clock out, even late magic from Aaron Rdogers might not be enough to save an 'over' ticket.
And at the same time, San Fran's defense understands that they are going to have to be the ones to carry the workload here in the coming weeks with the offensive injury situation their team is experiencing.
It's that 49ers defense that DOES HAVE plenty of positive memories from the two meetings a year ago after setting up shop in the Packers backfield on both occasions, and should it be them that has a great game on TNF, this game probably ends up topping out somewhere in the mid-40's.
So it was an easy pass on the total before the 49ers virus issues, and an even easier one now.
Head-to-Head History
Jan. 19, 2020 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 20, 49ers -8, Over 46.5
Nov. 24, 2019 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 8, 49ers -3, Under 48
Oct. 15, 2018 - Green Bay 33 vs. San Francisco 30, 49ers +9.5, Over 46.5
Handicapping the Side
The side was the angle I had already been eyeing before Wednesday's news, and it was going to be the Packers or nothing. Now, even with it going to be a highly popular play on a very public team, it's still the Packers or nothing on the spread for me.
Part of that has to do with Green Bay's ability to bounce back of a loss – especially one where they looked as lousy as they did vs Minnesota – as they are on a 6-0 ATS run when coming off an outright loss dating back to late in the 2018-19 season. That scenario was already a strong “play on” spot for the Packers and it's getting hard to ignore.
Then you've got the whole revenge angle from the NFC Championship loss, as well as the even uglier loss in the regular season to this Niners team a year ago. That can't be overlooked either, and in hindsight, the idea that Green Bay was so flat and out of sync against Minnesota last week, could be somewhat attributed to looking ahead to this game.
Remember, they didn't know at the time that Garoppolo or Kittle wouldn't be playing, and getting one over on the team that ended their season last year is a professional pride thing that's got to be considered with all professional athletes.
And then there is the COVID situation now with the Niners, who may or not see more key players affected. That's not the only negative though, as now pre-game walkthroughs and practice time 24 hours before the game have now been squashed, and that's pretty important for a team that's working in replacements at key positions that would prefer to get all the practice snaps in that they can.
Add it all up and this is one situation where siding with the likely consensus on the Packers is really the only way I believe you can confidently put your money on in this game.
Who knows, the fact that Green Bay was such a huge public play last week and burned everyone may have some of those same bettors a little hesitant to join the chalk fest with the Packers here, especially after how bad they looked against Minnesota.
It's still Green Bay so it probably won't dissuade a large number of bettors, but laying the points with the visitors here makes too much sense on multiple fronts.
Key Injuries
Green Bay
OT David Bakhtiari: Chest - Questionable
S Raven Greene: Oblique - Questionable
RB Aaron Jones: Calf - Questionable
CB Kevin King: Quadriceps - Out
S Will Redmond: Shoulder - Out
S Vernon Scott: Shoulder - Out
OT Rick Wagner: Knee - Questionable
San Francisco
WR Deebo Samuel: Quarantine/COVID - Out
OT Trent Williams: Quarantine/COVID - Out
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Quarantine/COVID - Out
RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Out
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Out
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Out
WR Richie James: Ankle - Questionable
TE George Kittle: Foot - Out
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Out
S Jaquiski Tartt: Groin - Questionable
2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)
Home-Away: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS
Over-Under: 3-4