Thursday 10/6/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 19:45

Austria

v

Wales

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		13/10	11/5	13/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN AUSTRIA	RECENT FORM
HWHLNLNDNLAW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 0	NLNWNWNWNLHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Wales lost only once in their last qualifying campaign

EXPERT VERDICT: Both sides look stronger in attack than they do in defence and this could be a game full of goals at both ends. After a disappointing Euro 2016 Marcel Koller’s men recorded a 2-1 victory in Georgia and could prove a dangerous opposition for the Welsh, who are still buzzing after their semi-final run at the Euros.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
3

 

[superbeets]

World Cup TODAY 19:45

Ireland

v

Georgia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		4/9	10/3	17/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELAND	RECENT FORM
NDNLNWALHWAD​ Most recent​	1 - 0 4 - 0 2 - 1 2 - 0	ADHDNLALAWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ireland have won all seven meetings against Georgia since 2002

EXPERT VERDICT: Georgia haven’t been pulling up any trees recently, losing five of their last eight international games, including going down against Austria in their World Cup qualifying opener. The visitors haven’t scored more than once in their last five matches either and Ireland should be home bankers.

RECOMMENDATION: Ireland
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[superbeets]

World Cup Sa 8Oct 17:00

England

v

Malta

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		1/50	18	50	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN ENGLAND	RECENT FORM
HWNDNWNDNLAW Most recent	Unknown	ALHDALALADHL Most recent

KEY STAT: Malta have conceded more than three goals just once in 11 competitive games

EXPERT VERDICT: England left it late to secure a well-deserved 1-0 victory away to Slovakia in their opening World Cup qualifier but should be more comfortable at home to Malta in Gareth Southgate’s first match in the Three Lions hotseat. Sam Allardyce’s dismissal came out of the blue but is unlikely to damage the team’s prospects in the short term.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 3-0

 

[superbeets]

World Cup Sa 8Oct 19:45

Scotland

v

Lithuania

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		1/2	3	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLAND	RECENT FORM
AWAWHWALALAW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 3 - 1 1 - 0 3 - 0	ALNLHWALADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Germany and England are the only teams Scotland have lost to at home in the last three years

EXPERT VERDICT: Gordon Strachan’s side were aided by Malta having to play the final half an hour with ten men but the 5-1 success was merited and they should have another comfortable night against Lithuania, who can hardly be described as a member of Europe’s elite. They have won just two of their last 17 matches and Scotland should be able to keep a clean sheet against one of the poorest attacks on the continent.

RECOMMENDATION: Scotland to win 2-0
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Temple at Memphis
By Joe Nelson

Last week’s American Athletic Conference matchup on Thursday night had some intriguing storylines but the game wound up a blowout as Houston crushed Connecticut.

This week’s AAC spotlight game had a lopsided result from the underdog last season but a closer game is expected in a key division crossover game between Memphis and Temple.

Match-up: Temple Owls at Memphis Tigers
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 6, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Memphis -10, Over/Under 60
Last Meeting: 2015, at Temple (+2½) 31, Memphis 12

Much of the 2015 season it looked like Memphis and Temple might meet in the AAC championship game as both climbed into the polls with Memphis starting 8-0 and Temple starting 7-0. By the time these teams met in the regular season both had taken conference losses as Houston eventually seized control of the AAC West and eventually bested Temple in the conference championship.

For Memphis led by a NFL draft pick at quarterback in Paxton Lynch, a 9-4 final result with a lopsided Birmingham Bowl loss was a bit of a disappointment considering the Tigers were ranked #15 in the nation when they were 8-0 before losing three consecutive games. Justin Fuente had a very successful four year run to build up the program and that success led him to be picked up for the Virginia Tech position. Mike Norvell was hired to take over after spending the previous four seasons as the offensive coordinator at Arizona State.

This year’s team has some clear changes in place and the 3-1 start deserves some scrutiny as the wins came over FCS Southeast Missouri State, Kansas, and Bowling Green with all three games at home. Last week the Tigers had a big test at Mississippi and despite a commendable effort Memphis lost 48-28. Houston remains the massive favorite in the AAC West where Memphis resides and the Tigers will host that game at the end of the year. The eight-game league slate is a difficult one for the Tigers however as they are drawing arguably the top three teams from the East, starting with this game with Temple.

This game last season came in late November with Memphis reeling off back-to-back losses. Memphis was stunned in a 45-20 home loss to Navy and in the big matchup with Houston the following week Memphis played well but wound up losing 35-34 before heading to Philadelphia for a second straight road game. Temple started 2015 7-0 and gave Notre Dame a tough battle with a 24-20 defeat. The Owls took a conference loss at South Florida prior to the big win over Memphis that was critical in sealing the East division title.

Despite Memphis featuring far more impressive offensive statistics on the season it was Temple that had big numbers in that game posting a 461-232 yardage edge to win 31-12 despite a 2-0 turnover deficit for the Owls. Paxton Lynch threw for just 156 yards on only 4.6 yards per attempt as the secondary for Temple had a great performance. Memphis was also held to just 2.2 yards per rush while the Owls had a 200-yard rushing game on offense and P.J. Walker threw for 261 yards, eventually turning a game that was tight through three quarters into a rout late as Temple scored the final 17 points and Memphis failed to score a touchdown despite an over 40 points per game scoring average on the season.

Temple would go on to play Houston very tough in the AAC championship, posting a yardage edge but burned by turnovers in a 24-13 loss that looks even more impressive now with Houston going on to win the Peach Bowl last winter and riding great momentum into 2016 as well. While it will be tough for Temple to match last season’s 10-win campaign, returning to a bowl for the second straight season is very realistic and the Owls are a threat in the East division, although South Florida is likely the favorite at this point.

Temple hasn’t had a bye week yet this season and sits at 3-2 but the wins have come against light competition, beating FCS Stony Brook, Charlotte, and SMU. The opening week loss to Army at home was a surprise but Temple did play tough at Penn State in a 34-27 defeat. Already 1-0 in league play Temple is on the road the next two games before hosting the top two E division contenders in South Florida and Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks including facing the Bulls on a Friday night primetime game in two weeks.

Going by Phillip Walker this season, the senior quarterback has struggled with seven interceptions and only six touchdowns in five games, with four of the interceptions and no touchdowns in the two losses. Walker has a worse completion rate than last season at this point and is nowhere near the production pace of throwing for nearly 3,000 yards last season. The receiving group has had some turnover as three of the top five receivers from last season departed but Temple has had a slightly improved running game this season, posting 4.3 yards per carry with 14 rushing touchdowns mostly split between senior Jahad Thomas who had over 1,300 yards rushing last season and breakout sophomore Ryquell Armstead who had posted 6.0 yards per rush.

Replacing a NFL quarterback is a tough challenge but junior Riley Ferguson has been productive with 11 touchdown passes in four games, though six of those came in the 77-3 rout of Bowling Green. Against Mississippi last week he had three interceptions that prevented a more serious upset threat for the Tigers in a matchup they won in 2015. The running game has been important for Memphis with last season’s leading rusher Doeoland Dorceus leading the team so far with 5.7 yards per rush but the offense revolves around the passing game and junior Anthony Miller already has 27 catches this season for over 400 yards.

Pass defense has been a strong suit for Temple in recent years and Memphis has struggled in this series, posting 21, 16, and 12 in the past three seasons in this matchup, although the Tigers did win the 2014 meeting at Temple in a 16-13 result. Temple’s offense could have some opportunities in this matchup as Memphis has allowed 371 yards per game but the quick pace of the offense can inflate those cumulative numbers to some degree. It does feel like these squads are both playing for second place in their respective divisions but this is a key game as the victor could have chance to sneak into the AAC title race and the winner will certainly enter the second half of the season on solid footing towards a postseason goal.

Historical Trends:

-- Temple is 2-1 S/U and 3-0 ATS in this series since becoming conference rivals in 2013.

-- Temple is on a 22-12 ATS run as a road underdog while also going 15-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog in that span regardless of location.

-- Memphis is 15-7 S/U at home since 2013 but just 11-11 ATS.

-- Memphis is on a 25-40-2 ATS run as a home favorite going back to 1993, going just 4-4 ATS in that role since the start of last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football Game of the Day: Temple at Memphis

Temple Owls at Memphis Tigers (-10, 60.5)

Fresh off its first loss of the season, host Memphis aims to regroup Thursday against resurgent Temple when the Owls visit the Tigers in an American Athletic Conference game. Memphis outscored its opponents 155-27 during a 3-0 start, but struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up.

The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. "Turnovers, communication issues, penalties, missed tackles - all those things that can't happen in a close game with a quality opponent," Norvell said in his post-game press conference. "This team still has some things to clean up."

The Owls faced plenty of issues themselves early in the season but have regrouped to win two straight behind 48- and 45-point performances, although senior quarterback Philip Walker is looking to deliver a stronger effort this week. "The thing that kept us back today was myself," Walker told reporters after going 7-of-18 for 124 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions last week against SMU. "I played my worst football game since I have been out there, I have to get better and stop overthinking when I am out there and have to go out there and play better."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE MOVEMENT: This game opened Memphis -9.5 and has since moved to the key number of -10. The total has remained steady at 60.5 points.

INJURY REPORT: Temple - DE J. Taylor (Questionable), LB A. Williams (questionable), DB S. Chandler (Out) / Memphis - DB C. Morley (Questionable), DB D. Nelson (Questionable), DL L. Brady (Out)

WEATHER: The forecast for Liberty Bowl Memorial is calling for clear skies and winds blowing ESE at 5 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These teams have met four times and Temple holds a 2-1 edege in the series. Not only will Memphis be looking to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the year in last week’s 48-28 thumping at the hands of Ole Miss on the road, but it’s also out for some revenge after dropping last season’s game against the Owls 31-12. Note that Temple is 93rd in the FBS in passing (199.8 YPG), while Memphis is 20th (308.5)." -- AAA Sports.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Memphis as a 9.5-point favorite, and it was quickly bet up to -10 where we currently sit with over 75 percent of the action on Memphis to cover the -10. The total for this game is sitting at 60.5 with over 80 percent of the action on the Over." -- Michael Stewart.

ABOUT TEMPLE (3-2, 1-0 AAC, 4-1 ATS): Sophomore tailback Ryquell Armstead ran for two touchdowns for the second straight game and finished with 159 rushing yards against SMU. Senior Jahad Thomas also had a pair of rushing scores - his third straight game with two rushing TDs - as he continues to work his way back from a hand injury that sidelined him for the first two games of the season. After recording a career-high 10 tackles against SMU, sophomore defensive back Delvon Randall will need to be at his best once again versus a Memphis squad averaging 45.8 points - sixth-best in the nation.

ABOUT MEMPHIS (3-1, 0-0, 2-2 ATS): The Tigers allowed a total of 10 points in their previous two games before surrendering 48 to Ole Miss, and now must contend with an Owls squad that has defeated them in two of the last three seasons. Memphis needs Riley Ferguson to have a bounce back game after the junior threw three interceptions without a touchdown pass last week - a stark contrast to his eight touchdowns and zero picks over the previous two outings. Wide receiver Anthony Miller had 157 total yards and a touchdown against the Rebels, while fellow junior Doroland Dorceus rushed for a score for the fourth straight game.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Tigers last six Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of wagers are on Memphis while 60 percent of wagers are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday’s games

Short week for Memphis after 48-28 beatdown at Ole Miss LW; Tigers’ three wins have been vs stiffs- they lost two of three games vs Temple, with underdog Owls covering all three games. Memphis is 10-9 in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-0 this year. Temple scored 93 points in winning its last two games, running ball for 554 yards; they lost 34-27 (+7.5) at Penn State in only road game this season. Owls are 9-4 as road underdogs under Rhule. AAC favorites are 4-1 vs spread in conference play this year, 1-1 at home.

Western Kentucky (+1.5) beat Louisiana Tech 41-38 at home LY, after losing 59-10 (+7) here the year before; Tech gained 507-580 TY in those games. Hilltoppers threw for 441 yards in LY’s win. Both of WKU’s losses this year are to SEC teams; they’re 3-4 as road favorites under Brohm. Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, allowing 39.3 pts/game in the losses, but did beat UTEP in only I-A home game; Bulldogs are 0-3 as home underdogs the last 4+ years. Tech allowed 826 PY in its last two losses. C-USA home teams are 4-5 vs spread in conference play, 3-3 when favored.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 6

TEMPLE at MEMPHIS... Owls have covered last three meetings. Temple 6-1 as dog since LY.

Temple, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at LA TECH...La Tech 8-2 as dog for Skip since 2014. Bulldogs also 6-3 vs. spread last nine at Ruston vs. C-USA foes. Tops 5-9-1 vs. spread as visitor for Brohm.

Slight to La Tech, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech &Prediction
By Dave Miller

Projecting who wins between the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers on Thursday in Ruston, Louisiana.

When: Thursday, Oct. 6 – 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA
TV Broadcast: CBSSN

The Bulldogs (2-3, 1-1 Conference USA) are coming off of a 28-7 home win over UTEP last week, as head coach Skip Holtz improved to 7-0 all time vs. the Miners. He is 4-0 with the Bulldogs, was 2-0 at East Carolina and notched a victory over them when he was at USF. The Bulldogs have three losses, but they have all come by close margins. Holtz’s squad almost knocked off Arkansas in the season opener and battled hard against Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers (3-2, 1-0) bounced back from their very disappointing home loss to Vanderbilt with an easy 50-3 win over Houston Baptist on Saturday night. The Hilltoppers scored on their first eight possessions and did not punt until the 1:33 mark of the fourth quarter. WKU recorded a season-high 535 yards of total offense and had 23 first downs in the victory.

In last year’s contest between these schools, Brandon Doughty led the Hilltoppers to a wild 41-38 Thursday night win, which was their seventh straight victory.
What To Know About Louisiana Tech

Senior quarterback Ryan Higgins passed for 191 yards and two touchdowns, and he added 42 yards and another score on the ground in the win over the Miners. This is a team that should be a C-USA West contender if they can take care of the football. Turnovers have been an issue for the Bulldogs, but they did not give away the football last week and have the ability to go up and down the field with Higgins and top target Trent Taylor. This air-raid offense is tough to deal with even for the best of defenses.
What to Know About Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers should have beaten Vanderbilt, as they recorded 501 yards of total offense against a good SEC defense. But 11 penalties, three turnovers and just three third-down conversions hurt the ‘Toppers. Head coach Jeff Brohm’s squad, though, can absolutely repeat as C-USA champs because it is as talented as any in the league.
Advantages

Offense: Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are averaging 44.3 points per game, while the Bulldogs are putting up 37.5 points per contest.

Defense: Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs are very susceptible to teams that are heavy on the pass, as we saw in the games against Texas Tech and Middle Tennessee this season.

Special Teams: Louisiana Tech. Two Western Kentucky kickers have combined to miss four field goals already this year, while the Bulldogs’ Jonathan Barnes is perfect on kicks between 40 and 49 yards.

Coaching: Western Kentucky. I give a slight edge to Brohm because he is a rising star who is going to get a bigger gig sooner than later.

Intangibles: Louisiana Tech. It’s a home game, and the Bulldogs suffered a close loss to WKU last year.
Matchup To Watch

Mike White vs. Louisiana Tech secondary

The former USF signal-caller did not play well in losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt, so the Hilltoppers need White to play consistent and efficient ball the rest of the season if they want to play for the C-USA championship. In his last outing, he was 11-of-13 passing for 225 yards and three touchdowns against no interceptions. This is a Bulldogs secondary that can be exploited, and this offense has the ability to do just that with White’s arm.
Betting Odds

Spread: Western Kentucky -3
Over/Under: N/A
Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky Prediction

It’s a weeknight home game for the Bulldogs, and they will be looking for revenge from the loss last season. But the WKU offense will be one score better than the Louisiana Tech defense, allowing Brohm’s squad to get the conference road win.

Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 36, Louisiana Tech 30

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 5
By Marcus DiNitto

Another week of football, another rash of injuries.

Starting quarterbacks Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Trever Siemian all went down Sunday, prompting bookmakers to adjust their Week 5 numbers. Not all quarterback changes are created equal, of course, so we asked Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons for his take on what this week’s injuries mean to next week’s lines.

Here’s a look at all the early point spreads for Week 5 of the NFL season. Lines are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET, with changes and differences among sports books also noted.

Thursday, Oct. 6

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Palmer is in concussion protocol, and Arizona coach Bruce Arians said the team will be "very, very careful" with the quarterback and that it will be difficult for Palmer to be ready on a short week. CG Technology was the only sports book in Las Vegas with a number on this game Sunday night, dealing the Cardinals as 1.5-point favorites.

Should Palmer get the green light, expect the line to be in the 4 to 4.5 range, Salmons said.

After a loss at home to the Rams, the Cardinals are 1-3 on the season.

“They’re having such a hard time scoring this year. Last year they didn’t have that problem,” said Salmons. “I’m not sure what it is, but Palmer’s definitely getting older. Toward the end of last year, he really struggled. In the playoffs, he was awful against Green Bay and terrible against Carolina, and that’s continued into this year.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Arizona Cardinals (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS)

Odds: Arizona (-4); Total set at 42.5

Week 5 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a NFC West showdown between a pair of one-win teams. Many bettors can't be too surprised to see the San Francisco 49ers at 1-3 SU entering this game, but Arizona's 1-3 SU start has left many shocked as the Cardinals were a popular pick to go all the way this year.

The 1-3 SU start doesn't do Arizona any favors in that regard, and with QB Carson Palmer potentially on the shelf for this one with a concussion, can the Cardinals begin to climb out of this early season hole they've dug?

Arizona's early season struggles this year have been in large part because of the ineptitude of their offense. The Cardinals have been able to move the ball well as they rank 7th in total yards this year, but all those yards haven't turned into many points aside from their Week 2 blowout win over Tampa.

Whether it was timely missed field goals, or costly turnovers at the wrong time (10 turnovers this year for Arizona), this team that made it to the NFC Championship game a year ago has looked much worse just a few months later. That is surprising given nearly all 22 of Arizona's starters from a year ago returned, but home losses to a Tom Brady-less Patriots team and the LA Rams have book-ended a disastrous first four weeks for the Cardinals.

San Francisco was expected to be one of the NFL's bottom feeders this year and have lost three straight (SU and ATS) entering this Thursday night game. They do however, continue to be a much better home team than they are away from home and home teams on TNF already have a bit of an advantage because they don't have to travel on a short week.

But the strength of the 49ers is their defense and they took a big hit this past week with LB Navarro Bowman lost for the year. His absence could open things up more for opponents who have already put 26.8 points per game up on the 49ers. With Arizona's offense looking to get back into the groove with whomever they start at QB, San Francisco's defense could be in tough this week without their leader Bowman.

Until word comes out on Carson Palmer's status for this game, it's tough to consider either side bet here. Arizona is going to get plenty of support from the majority of bettors regardless of who they throw out there because they are perceived to be the much better team.

In fact, many will argue that Arizona's early season struggles actually greats a bit of line value on them at this lower number because of how different these two teams were projected to finish the 2016 campaign. But I wouldn't rush to the window to take the Cardinals just yet as these struggles they appear to be having may actually something that could persist throughout the year, making them not nearly as good as everyone believed them to be.

I'm also not looking to bet on the 49ers here either as they aren't exactly one of the best teams in the league on either side of the ball. On paper they don't have the overall depth of talent that the Cardinals have and even at home on a short week, this line seems a little too low to grab the points with a bad group like San Francisco.

Instead, I'm looking at the total here and seeing the consensus numbers showing over 80% of the early money on the low side of this total and wondering why.

NFC West games of years past used to be defensive slugfests but that's not the case anymore. Obviously, Palmer's status has something to do with that early support on the 'under' too, but this total opened up at 42 and has moved up a half-point even with all that early action the other way.

San Francisco is 6-0 O/U after giving up 350+ yards like they did to Dallas last week, and the Cardinals are on an 8-3 O/U run in their last 11 away from home. The Bowman injury for San Fran really limits some of the calls that defense can make, and with both teams prone to turning the ball over, we could see a few short fields for both sides.

I expect to see both teams put up multiple TD's in this one and if we can get three from each side we've got our winner siding with that early line move on this total.

Best Bet: Over 42.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Cardinals at 49ers

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 42)

The Arizona Cardinals have been plagued by turnovers of late and the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick temporarily are faced with turning over the keys to backup quarterback Drew Stanton on Thursday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Veteran Carson Palmer did not travel with the team to California due to a concussion, leaving Stanton to be left looking to conjure the magic that saw him pull a 5-3 mark out of his hat during a stint in 2014.

Stanton struggled mightily in taking over for the concussed Palmer on Sunday, completing just 4-of-11 passes in a 17-13 setback to Los Angeles and his two interceptions upped Arizona's turnover total to nine during its two-game skid. "I'll say this, I never envisioned this type of start," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. "I don't know that anybody -- fans or anybody in the organization -- would have envisioned this." The 49ers had no such issue with the Rams with a 28-0 season-opening shellacking, but the defense of Chip Kelly's club summarily has been shredded to the tune of 458.3 yards and 35.7 points per contest during its three-game losing streak. To add injury to insult, four-time NFL All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman sustained a torn left Achilles in Sunday's 24-17 setback to Dallas and will miss the rest of the season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this game as 2.5-point road faves and were bet as high as -4, but then the news came out Palmer would miss the game, the line dropped back to Cardinals -3.5. The total has also dropped with Stanton taking the snaps for Palmer, going from 43.5 to 43, to the current number of 42.

POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-1) - 49ers (+6) + home field (-3) = 49ers +4

INJURY REPORT:

Cardinals - QB C. Palmer (Out Thursday, concussion), T D. Humphries (probable Thursday, ankle), TE D. Fells (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (questionable Thursday, toe), CB J. Bethel (questionable Thursday, foot), DT J. Mauro (questionable, chest), DT F. Rucker (questionable Thursday, knee), DT R. Nkemdiche (questionable Thursday, ankle).

49ers - TE V. McDonald (probable Thursday, hip), DL A. Armstead (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB M. Cromartie (probable Thursday, ankle), G Z. Beadles (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB C. Davis (questionable Thursday, quadricep), WR J. Kerley (questionable Thursday, ankle), DL G. dorsey (questionable Thursday, knee), DB J. Ward (questionable Thursday, quadricep), Dl D. Buckner (doubtful Thursday, foot). LB N. Bowman (out for season, Achilles).

WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up to be a beautiful night for football in Santa Clara. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There is also going to be a six to 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has dropped back-to-back games on only two occasions in his NFL career with Arizona and as a result finds his team languishing in a tie for last place in he NFC West division along with the 49ers. The key to this contest is the concussion protocol in which QB Carson Palmer is under. With him they don’t figure to drop three straight games. Without him they’ve got a headache - pun intended. The dataabse tells us Frisco is 1-5 ATS on Thursdays, but 'Zona is 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games." - Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Initial money came in on Arizona, driving the spread up to -4.5, but that's starting to look more and more like a ploy play. We're back down to -3, and my guess is that this could end up closing lower than that. Currently, the money favors Arizona 60-40 while the bets are 75-25 on the road squad." - Odds consultant Scott Cooley.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U): David Johnson (64 carries, 300 yards, three TDs) leads the NFL with 510 yards from scrimmage and has recorded 100 or more total yards in all four contests this season and eight of his last nine games. Johnson amassed 124 from scrimmage (83 rushing, 41 receiving) versus the Rams, but the workload was decidedly different in last year's season series with San Francisco (15 carries, 46 yards). The 24-year-old will be spelled by Andre Ellington, as veteran Chris Johnson (groin) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Tyvon Branch was also shuffled to IR, with fellow safety Tyrann Mathieu temporarily being moved into the slot while D.J. Swearinger plays in nickel packages.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): San Francisco collected eight takeaways in its first three games to provide a helping hand for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, which scored a league-best 45 points off the turnovers after mustering an NFL-worst 25 for the entire 2015 season. The 49ers failed to force a turnover versus the Cowboys on Sunday and Blaine Gabbert's fourth interception of the season ended his team's bid for an upset. Carlos Hyde (73 carries, 299 yards, NFC-best five TDs) is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over his last two games, but was limited to just 51 yards in a 47-7 loss at Arizona on Sept. 27.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last four versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last nine Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is still backing the Cardinals, even without Carson Palmer, with 62 percent of wagers laying the points with the road faves. Meanwhile the total is seeing a much more even split, with 52 percent of wagers on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I'm not sure if such a prop existed before the season -- although I'm sure you could have requested it from some books -- but hopefully you didn't plop down any significant money on the Arizona Cardinals playing the Carolina Panthers in an NFC Championship Game rematch this January.

No teams have had a rematch in that game since the powerful Cowboys and 49ers played in it three straight times in the early 1990s. Right now, it appears that the Panthers and Cardinals will miss the playoffs entirely with both a surprising 1-3. I'll deal with Carolina in the Monday night preview this week. So Thursday's NFC West game at San Francisco is essentially a must-win for the Cards, who probably won't have Carson Palmer. Arizona is already two games behind the Seahawks and Rams in the division and down a tiebreaker to Los Angeles.

As for San Francisco? Not much was expected from Coach Chip Kelly's team this season, and outside of a dominant defensive effort in Week 1 against the Rams not much has been given as the Niners enter on a three-game skid. I mean this in all seriousness: if the 49res finish something like 2-14, would Kelly give up on the NFL and return to college like Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban did? Oregon, which might have an opening after this struggling season, would surely take Kelly back in an instant. Southern Cal and LSU also could be calling him.

Cardinals at 49ers Betting Story Lines

The big story here is that it probably will be backup Drew Stanton making his first start under center for Arizona since last in the 2014 season. One reason I wasn't as high as many national experts on the Cardinals this year was because I didn't trust Palmer to stay healthy at age 36 or to perform well in a big game. He was absolutely terrible in Week 3's loss in Buffalo with four picks and no touchdowns. Palmer was a little better in Sunday's 17-13 home defeat to the Rams, going 23-for-36 for 288 yards with a TD and a pick. Palmer's head was slammed to the turf on a fourth-quarter sack by Aaron Donald, and Palmer is in the concussion protocol. I don't see how he will be ready by Thursday, although the Cardinals remain hopeful.

Stanton is a decent enough No. 2 and can win a few games for you. But he was just 4-for-11 for 37 yards and two picks, albeit one on a Hail Mary, in place of Palmer vs. the Rams. Stanton started eight games for Arizona in 2014 and was 5-3. I still don't understand why the Cardinals didn't take a QB to groom in the first round of this year's draft. There was some talk they were looking at Memphis' Paxton Lynch with the No. 29 overall pick, but Denver traded up to No. 26 and took him. Stanton's backup would be Zac Dysert, who was signed off the practice squad.

You might see a defensive change this week with Tyrann Mathieu returning to cornerback from safety. He has mostly played the latter because he's still working his way back from last season's torn ACL, but Mathieu says he's ready to "cut it loose." Palmer isn't the only Cardinal in question Thursday. Guys like running back Chris Johnson, safety Tyvon Branch and defensive tackles Josh Munro and Ed Stinson are all banged up.

Meanwhile, Kelly will stick with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback for now but I doubt it's for much longer as Gabbert is the NFL's 30th-rated quarterback (73.1) and averaging just 182.0 yards per game, last in the league among QBs who have started every game this year. If Colin Kaepernick were physically 100 percent, I think he'd be in there. I don't believe this has anything to do with his national anthem stance as some have speculated. The 49ers' point total has gone down every week. They led Dallas 14-0 late in the second quarter Sunday but allowed the Cowboys to score two quick TDs before the half. After intermission, Gabbert and Co. did nothing in a 24-17 loss. Other than tailback Carlos Hyde, this team just has no offensive talent.

The 49ers' best player is linebacker NaVorro Bowman, but he was lost for the season to a torn Achilles' tendon on Sunday on a non-contact play, a crushing loss. Bowman had made it all the way back to a Pro Bowl level after suffering very serious knee injuries in the NFC Championship Game vs. Seattle following the 2013 season and then missing all of 2014. He had 154 tackles and 2.5 sacks last year and was given a big new extension. Bowman had 35 tackles with a sack and interception in 2016. Here's hoping his career isn't over. Even with Bowman, that defense has been torched three weeks in a row. The Cowboys ran the ball at will Sunday after Bowman left.

Also expected out this game for the Niners is defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, the No. 7 overall pick this year. He has a foot injury. Monitor the status of receiver Jeremy Kerley (ankle) and cornerback Jimmie Ward (quadricep).

Cardinals at 49ers Betting Odds and Trends

Arizona is a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 42.5. The Cardinals are -170 on the moneyline and 49ers +150. On the alternate lines, the Cards are -3.5 (+105) and -2.5 (-145). Arizona is 1-3 against the spread this season (0-1 on road) and 1-3 "over/under" (1-0 on road). San Francisco is 1-3 ATS (1-1 at home) and 2-2 O/U (0-2 at home).

The Cardinals 19-7 ATS in their past 26 vs. teams with a losing record. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six on Thursday. The 49ers have covered five straight in Week 5. They are 3-8-1 ATS in their past 12 vs. the NFC West. San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its past six on Thursday. The under is 9-3 in Arizona's past 12. It's 4-0 in its past four vs. the NFC West. The under is 8-1 in the Niners' past nine on Thursday. Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its past seven in San Francisco.

Cardinals at 49ers Betting Prediction

Arizona swept San Francisco last year, crushing the 49ers in the desert and escaping 19-13 in Santa Clara on a late 8-yard TD run from Palmer. Honestly didn't know he could still run. Kaepernick was the starter for the 49ers in the blowout and Gabbert in the close loss. This game is going to be really hard to watch from an offensive standpoint, I think. So I love the under. Give the 2.5-point alternate line as the Cardinals save their season for one week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 5 NFL

Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3)— QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cardinals (1-3) at 49ers (1-3)

Date October 06, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

Carson Palmer might not be available Thursday when the Arizona Cardinals hit the road looking to avoid a 1-4 start to a season in which head coach Bruce Arians identified the Super Bowl as the team's acceptable goal.

Palmer entered the week in concussion protocol, leaving the Week 4 loss to the Los Angeles Rams with a head injury Sunday. The short week left little time for manipulating the Cardinals' game plan against familiar NFC West foe San Francisco. The 49ers (1-3) have quarterback questions of their own.

Arians said Tuesday before the team packed for Santa Clara, Calif., that his plan would not change much if Drew Stanton was behind center Thursday.

"Yeah, not really," he said. "I think the mindset is the same. I didn't know when we were going in to New York until two hours before kickoff when Carson went to try to throw. Those of us who are a part of this locker room or organization know how tough Carson Palmer is, and if he can play, he is going to find a way to play. You respect that about him, but I'm also going to give him his space because I'm not going to sit there over his shoulder pestering him. I have to do my due diligence to get ready as well."

The Cardinals might go a bit more conservative -- Arians admits this is counter his typical approach -- and ask its defense to flex its muscles. That includes cutting loose hybrid safety Tyrann Mathieu, who said this week he's ready to return to his Honey Badger role and plans to play more in the slot and closer to the box Thursday night against the 49ers.

That will certainly get the 49ers' attention, according to 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

"Yeah, you always got to be aware of where he is on the football field," Gabbert said. "He's a talented, instinctive player that makes a lot of plays on the ball. You have to be aware of where he's lining up, whether he's in the slot or he's back at safety."

The Cardinals have nine takeaways, second only to the Kansas City Chiefs (10), including five interceptions. Gabbert, who has just a 73.1 passer rating with four interceptions, is fighting to keep a hold on the starting job when Colin Kaepernick is deemed healthy. Kaepernick had offseason shoulder surgery and coach Chip Kelly said last week health is still holding Kaepernick back.

Some picked the Cardinals to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl -- notably, Sports Illustrated tapped Cardinals-Steelers for Super Bowl LI in Houston -- but getting out of the West division will not be easy. Seattle is 3-1 and the Rams got a leg up on Arizona with a head-to-head win Sunday. That game turned on a punt return on which Arians felt Los Angeles could have been penalized.

Not he's fearful his club will allow one painful loss to multiply.

"Well, you don't have a choice but to get past it. If it were a normal week, they could brood until they showed up Wednesday," Arians said.

Among other changes to the depth chart, the Cardinals are sliding Andre Ellington to the No. 2 running back spot after Chris Johnson was placed on injured reserve this week. David Johnson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and remains entrenched as the starter. He could get a big workload Thursday night as the 49ers' defense begins finding its way without inside linebacker Navorro Bowman (Achilles tendon), who was also placed on IR this week.

Protecting Gabbert with balance has become Kelly's M.O., and running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs.

The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats -- nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown -- don't tell that story.

"A lot of it just depends on how people play us," Kelly said. "We've gotten a lot of man coverage out there, and sometimes people are leaning safeties toward his side, so we're taking advantage of what's going on."

Slot receiver Jeremy Kerley sustained a somewhat minor ankle injury in the Week 4 loss to Dallas and is questionable for the Thursday game against the Cardinals. He has a team-high 18 receptions and could draw Mathieu if the Cardinals employ their preferred nickel package.

"It definitely will get us back in the thick of things of our true identity," said cornerback Patrick Peterson of Mathieu. "The nickel position is a huge play-making position for us, and to have a guy of his caliber back at the position definitely is something that can help our defense. Is he ready? We'll see. Only he will know that. I'm excited to see him back in his normal role."

Like the Cardinals, the 49ers are dealing with some key injuries.

Tight end Vance McDonald has been limited in practice this week as he attempts to return from a hip injury that kept him out of the loss to Dallas. McDonald had a career-high six catches for 71 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced the Cardinals, on Nov. 29, 2015.

Defensive end DeForest Buckner injured his foot late in Dallas and is unlikely to face the Cardinals, but linebacker Aaron Lynch returned to practice this week following a four-game suspension and likely will be activated for the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 5 NFL

Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3)— QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Unless you are dodging Hurricane Matthew it is going to be a great weekend of betting action, with Keeneland opening for their fall meeting on Friday and Belmont Park having Super Saturday on tap. Between the two tracks there are 11 Breeders’ Cup Challenge races coming up.

Keeneland opens for their 17-day fall meeting on Friday with a pair of “Win and You’re In” races—the $250,000 Phoenix (G2), a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and the $400,000 Alcibiades (G1), the winner stamping her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

I will be providing my full card report for Keeneland each Saturday of the meeting. This Saturday there are three Breeders’ Cup Challenge races—the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1), $250,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) and the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

There are seven stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park including four “Win and You’re In” races. The headliner is the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) which serves as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The race drew a field of six including last year’s Classic runner up Effinex, Woodward (G1) runner up Mubtaahij and Hoppertunity, who skipped the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita to ship to New York and with the way California Chrome ran in that race, trainer Bob Baffert made the right decision.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:55 ET)
#6 Decent 4-5
#8 Peace Points 10-1
#3 Completely Bonker 6-1
#5 Dr. Edgar 8-1

Analysis: Decent was a game second against Alw-1 company last out going six furlongs on turf in his second start off a five-month layoff. Here was a good second two back at this level, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The gelding has landed in the exacta in three of his four trips over the Belmont turf here. He is back with starter allowance foes here The price is going to be puny but he looks tough in this spot.

Peace Points can offer some value here if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line. The gelding was a game maiden winner in his debut two back and last out against $40,000 non-winners of two her made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in his first start off a year layoff. he should be tighter second off the bench here for the Trombetta barn.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8 / 3,5,6,8,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:46 ET)
#4 Request 5-2
#1 Munjaz 4-1
#8 Roman Approval 2-1
#2 Decisive Triumph 8-1

Analysis: Request tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth place finish at this level last out trying to get 1 1/2 miles. The runner up Ectot came back to pull off the upset in the Joe Hirsch (G1) on Saturday here. The Brown trainee passed his first allowance condition going 1 3/8 miles at the Big A last November. Castellano takes over and while it took this guy too long to pass his first condition he fits here with his best.

Munjaz was beaten just a nose two back at Keeneland at this level over soft ground in his first go off a 15-month layoff. He regressed last out at the Spa at 1 1/16 miles off a four-month break. He broke his maiden at this distance at Newmarket way back in '14 and has enough pedigree to handle the distance, by Sea The Stars out of a Zafonic mare. He may end up getting overlooked in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #8 Peace Points 10-1
R1: #5 Dr. Edgar 8-1
R5: #7 Wild With Style 12-1
R5: #8 Pursuer 8-1
R6: #6 Tairneach 8-1
R7: #3 Barrier to Entry 8-1
R8: #2 Decisive Triumph 8-1
R9: #10 Bellalarama 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Unless you are dodging Hurricane Matthew it is going to be a great weekend of betting action, with Keeneland opening for their fall meeting on Friday and Belmont Park having Super Saturday on tap. Between the two tracks there are 11 Breeders’ Cup Challenge races coming up.

Keeneland opens for their 17-day fall meeting on Friday with a pair of “Win and You’re In” races—the $250,000 Phoenix (G2), a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and the $400,000 Alcibiades (G1), the winner stamping her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

I will be providing my full card report for Keeneland each Saturday of the meeting. This Saturday there are three Breeders’ Cup Challenge races—the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1), $250,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) and the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

There are seven stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park including four “Win and You’re In” races. The headliner is the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) which serves as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

The race drew a field of six including last year’s Classic runner up Effinex, Woodward (G1) runner up Mubtaahij and Hoppertunity, who skipped the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita to ship to New York and with the way California Chrome ran in that race, trainer Bob Baffert made the right decision.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:55 ET)
#6 Decent 4-5
#8 Peace Points 10-1
#3 Completely Bonker 6-1
#5 Dr. Edgar 8-1

Analysis: Decent was a game second against Alw-1 company last out going six furlongs on turf in his second start off a five-month layoff. Here was a good second two back at this level, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The gelding has landed in the exacta in three of his four trips over the Belmont turf here. He is back with starter allowance foes here The price is going to be puny but he looks tough in this spot.

Peace Points can offer some value here if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line. The gelding was a game maiden winner in his debut two back and last out against $40,000 non-winners of two her made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in his first start off a year layoff. he should be tighter second off the bench here for the Trombetta barn.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 3,5,6,8 / 3,5,6,8,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:46 ET)
#4 Request 5-2
#1 Munjaz 4-1
#8 Roman Approval 2-1
#2 Decisive Triumph 8-1

Analysis: Request tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth place finish at this level last out trying to get 1 1/2 miles. The runner up Ectot came back to pull off the upset in the Joe Hirsch (G1) on Saturday here. The Brown trainee passed his first allowance condition going 1 3/8 miles at the Big A last November. Castellano takes over and while it took this guy too long to pass his first condition he fits here with his best.

Munjaz was beaten just a nose two back at Keeneland at this level over soft ground in his first go off a 15-month layoff. He regressed last out at the Spa at 1 1/16 miles off a four-month break. He broke his maiden at this distance at Newmarket way back in '14 and has enough pedigree to handle the distance, by Sea The Stars out of a Zafonic mare. He may end up getting overlooked in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #8 Peace Points 10-1
R1: #5 Dr. Edgar 8-1
R5: #7 Wild With Style 12-1
R5: #8 Pursuer 8-1
R6: #6 Tairneach 8-1
R7: #3 Barrier to Entry 8-1
R8: #2 Decisive Triumph 8-1
R9: #10 Bellalarama 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 6

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Arians has played close games at Santa Clara the past two seasons and even lost at end of 2014 when QB-poor. Cards were still 17-7 vs. line on road in reg season for Arians prior to loss at Buffalo. Chip teams "over" 7-3 last nine since mid 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.