Thursday 10/30/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Hothand]

Anyone getting Vegas snitch's plays? They are 20-6 on there 200x

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 19:45

Verona

v

Lazio

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		9/4	5/2	11/10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VERONA	RECENT FORM
AWHDALHWHLAL​ Most recent​	4 - 1 3 - 1 2 - 0 1 - 0	ALHLAWHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in each of the last six meetings

EXPERT VERDICT: If history is a reliable guide this will be spectacular with eight of the last ten meetings featuring over 3.5 goals and the last six have produced a truly whopping 37 with over 4.5 collecting five times. Verona’s 6-2 loss at Napoli on Sunday illustrated their strengths and weaknesses and both teams should notch.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Louisville is 15-1 ATS when facing a .600 or greater ACC opponent, including 13-0 ATS during the regular season.
TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT
The fact of the matter is the biggest obstacle undefeated teams face is a serious momentum-breaker called rest. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, 5-0 or greater college football teams playing with a week of rest are 151-79-3 SU. What that means is: nearly 34% of the time a perfect season is ruined for teams playing with rest after Game Five of the season.
Making matters worse, these teams really struggle in this role when taking to the road. And with that, we look to – PLAY AGAINST any 5-0 or greater college football team on the road following a week of rest.
We do this because these teams are 51-32 SU and 29-53 ATS in this role since 1980. Last week the top-ranked Bulldogs of Mississippi State laid 14.5 points at Kentucky in this role, lucky to leave Lexington alive in a 14-point win that was in doubt until the final two minutes of the game. This week finds Florida State (Thursday) taking it to the limit when the Noles invade Louisville.
Not only do these teams lose their virginity over 38% of the time in this terrifying situation, they dip to 14-31 ATS in games where the opponent is seeking revenge. Worse, bring these same teams in as favorites with a scoring defense that allows more than 14 PPG on the season and they bust like a blackjack player hitting on 17, going 7-29 ATS, including 5-8 SU and 1-12 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Not a good omen for the FSU Seminoles this week!
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
LOUISVILLE over Florida St by 3
Like the unemployed dentists who recommended Trident, four of the nation’s top five teams couldn’t garner the money last Saturday. And the only reason that Seminoles’ supporters still have some spare change left is because FSU had the week off! We ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ it would be that rest – along with the SMART BOX support of the Cardinals – that has us believing that the ‘Noles have finally reached
their ‘limit’ tonight in Louisville. In fact, not only are we going to one-up those dentists and call for a unanimous decision on the ATS scorecard, we’re looking for FSU’s 23-game win streak to go via the way of Ole Miss in calling for the outright upset. And why not? Their 1-5 ATS record this season confirms they are not the same Seminoles who captured the National Championship trophy last year and their 1-6 ATS mark on Thursdays off back-to-back SU wins suggests they may not be prepared for this prime-time battle. Nor does their 0-4 ATS record in this series since 1987, or the fact that HC Jimbo Fisher is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS away versus greater than .700 opponents, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when not off a spread win. But if you’re still a bit leery of stepping in front of the Seminoles, just check out the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK as it provides The Clincher: Louisville is 15-1 ATS when facing a .600 or greater ACC opponent, including 13-0 ATS during the regular season.
GA SOUTHERN over Troy by 28
Just when we were finding Tuesdays groovy (thanks to UL-Lafayette both weeks), the NCAA decides to shift gears for this Week Ten opener in Statesboro with this Thursday night kickoff. Well, at least we’ll get to see the nation’s most vaunted rushing attack on display as the Eagles are averaging an inconceivable 405 yards on the ground this season, including a 613-yard barrage just five days ago against outmanned Georgia State. And though we may not see Southern run for six football fields tonight in Paulson Stadium, we do expect another ground gouge as the Trojans arrive with a super-soft rush defense that ranks 110th in the nation, allowing over 244 yards per game. Troy is also just 4-20-1 ATS in its last 25 games when allowing 35 or more points – not a good sign against an Eagles’ eleven that is averaging over 41 PPG in conference play. And while the 1-7 Trojans will be home for the holidays for a fourth straight campaign (happy retirement, Larry Blakeney), the Eagles have been puttin’ on the ‘Fritz’ in their initial FBS season under 1st-year head coach Willie Fritz as they have yet to lose a Sun Belt scrum (5-0 SU). So while this may not be a Ruby, err groovy Tuesday, we can still hang a name on this: blowout! Thus, lay it if you play it as the Eagles keep ‘Rolling.’
2014 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL PREVIEW NFL ATS POWERPLAY:
10/30 Play On New Orleans In Any Role Versus Carolina Panthers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grand Salami - October

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.


NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
10/8 4 22 20 UNDER
10/9 12 67.5 70 OVER
10/10 1 5.5 8 OVER
10/11 15 79.5 84 OVER
10/12 2 10 14 OVER
10/13 4 21.5 18 UNDER
10/14 9 50.5 60 OVER
10/15 3 16 19 OVER
10/16 7 39 42 OVER
10/17 6 32.5 18 UNDER
10/18 11 59.5 55 UNDER
10/19 4 21 15 UNDER
10/20 1 5.5 5 UNDER
10/21 10 55.5 59 OVER
10/22 3 16.5 18 OVER
10/23 8 43.5 48 OVER
10/24 5 27.5 35 OVER
10/25 11 58.5 59 OVER
10/26 5 27 24 UNDER
10/27 2 10.5 12 OVER
10/28 12 66 72 OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL roundup: Howe in guarded condition after stroke
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Detroit Red Wings and hockey legend Gordie Howe remained in guarded condition Wednesday after he suffered a major stroke Sunday morning.

Howe has lost some function on the right side of his body and has difficulty speaking, his daughter, Cathy Purnell, confirmed to ESPN.com.

Howe, known as "Mr. Hockey," is the Red Wings franchise leader in goals, points and games played, and many regard him as the greatest player of his generation. Howe, 86, led the Red Wings to four Stanley Cup championships while winning six league scoring titles and taking home the Hart Trophy six times as the league's MVP.

Howe's family including his four children -- Marty, Mark, Cathy and Murray -- has gathered in Lubbock, Texas, where they remain by their father's side.


---Boston Bruins defenseman Torey Krug will miss two to three weeks with a broken finger, according to the team.

The injury occurred during the Bruins' 4-3 loss to the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night. Krug has two goals, six points and a plus-2 rating in 11 games this season.

The Bruins also recalled defensemen Joe Morrow and David Warsofsky from Providence of the American Hockey League.



---New York Rangers defenseman John Moore received a five-game suspension from the NHL on Wednesday for an illegal check on Minnesota Wild forward Erik Haula.

The suspension is Moore's second for a check to the head. He was given a two-game banishment for a hit on Montreal Canadiens forward Dale Weise during the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs.



---The Dallas Stars reassigned left winger Curtis McKenzie to the Texas Stars of the American Hockey League on Wednesday.

McKenzie, 23, appeared in two games for Dallas, including his NHL debut on Oct. 18 vs. Philadelphia, and did not record a point. In one game with Texas this season, he registered one goal and four shots on net.


---The Nashville Predators sent forward Rich Clune to Milwaukee of the American Hockey League after he cleared waivers Wednesday.

The Predators also activated forward Matt Cullen from injured reserve in advance of Wednesday night's game at Edmonton. Cullen suffered an upper-body injury Sept. 24.

Clune has appeared in one game for Nashville this season and 120 career NHL games since 2009-10, amassing 18 points (seven goals, 11 assists) and 305 penalty minutes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Flyers struggle to put up wins in Tampa Bay
Andrew Avery

The Philadelphia Flyers travel to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action Thursday and as Flyers bettors are more than likely well aware, they struggle mightily at the Lightning.

Philly is a dismal 0-6 in its last six meetings with the Lightning at Amalie Arena.

The Flyers have gotten hot, however, as they ride a three-game winning streak into Thursday's game. They've beaten the Penguins 5-3, the Red Wings 4-2 and the Kings 3-2 in overtime heading into the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lookin' Ahead to Week 11
By Brian Edwards

There are four monster Week 11 games looming next weekend, with all of them impacting the race to garner invites to the inaugural College Football Playoff. Sportsbook.ag already has lines on these contests, so bettors get down on these games right now.

Check out College Football Odds for Week 11 through Week 15

Alabama at LSU

Let's start with Alabama at LSU in Baton Rouge. The offshore shop has 'Bama installed as a 7.5-point road favorite. After easily getting ahead of the number in a Week 9 win at Tennessee, the Crimson Tide allowed the Volunteers to rally and take the cash as 20-point home underdogs in a 34-20 loss.

Nick Saban's team has struggled badly in road 'chalk' roles recently, limping to a 1-7 spread record in its last eight such spots. Alabama is 0-3 versus the number in three road assignments this year, failing to cover at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and at Tennessee.

LSU has lost three in a row to 'Bama, including last year's 38-17 setback in Tuscaloosa in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Tide covered the spread as an 11-point home favorite.

When these teams collided in Baton Rouge in 2012 with first place in the SEC West at stake, 'Bama won a 21-17 decision thanks to a clutch drive in the final two minutes. With less than a minute remaining on third down inside LSU territory, A.J. McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass with LSU blitzing and the then-freshman running back took it to the house for the game-winning score. The Tigers took the money, however, as 8.5-point underdogs.

With last week's 10-7 win over Ole Miss as a three-point home underdog, LSU improved to 7-2 both straight up and against the spread. The Tigers have won three straight and four of its last five both SU and ATS. During Les Miles's 10-year tenure, they are now 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as home 'dogs.

Both teams have an open date to get ready for Saturday's prime-time matchup under the lights at Tiger Stadium.

Ohio State at Michigan State

Sportsbook has Michigan State listed as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Ohio State. The Spartans have won six in a row, while going 4-2 ATS, since suffering their only loss at Oregon back in Week 2. They have an open date to prep for the Buckeyes after spanking in-state rival Michigan by a 35-11 count in East Lansing.

With the addition of Maryland and Rutgers into the Big Ten, these teams reside in the same division (East) unlike last season. They collided in the Big Ten Championship Game last season, with Mark Dantonio's team handing Ohio St. its first loss of the Urban Meyer Era. Michigan St. won 34-24 as a five-point underdog.

In 2012, Ohio St. escaped Spartan Stadium with a 17-16 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog. That same season, the Buckeyes won 21-14 at Wisconsin as 2.5-point puppies. Those are the only two previous occasions in which Meyer's squad has been an underdog on his watch.

Michigan St. is 4-1 ATS as a home 'chalk' this year. The lone non-cover came in a 27-22 win over Nebraska when the Cornhuskers rallied from a 27-3 deficit in the final stanza to post the backdoor cover catching 6.5 points.

While Michigan St. has an open date this weekend, Ohio St. falls into a look-ahead situation at home vs. Illinois.

Baylor at Oklahoma

Sportsbook has Oklahoma favored by three vs. Baylor for their showdown in Norman. Both schools had open dates this past weekend and are back on the field Saturday. The Bears host Kansas and the Sooners venture to Ames for a battle against Iowa St.

Bob Stoops's squad will be in revenge mode after getting smashed 41-16 as a 16.5-point road underdog in Waco last year. Baylor has won two of the last three head-to-head meetings, covering the spread in all three of those contests.

OU, which has lost two of its last three games, is in the rare role of spoiler here. The Sooners saw its hopes of going to the College Football Playoff almost certainly dashed in their 31-30 home loss to Kansas St. on Oct. 18.

Baylor remains in the mix but undoubtedly has to win out. To do so, Art Briles's team will have to win in Norman for the first time ever.

Baylor hasn't been an underdog in 21 consecutive games if we can count this week's 'chalk' spot vs. KU. The Bears were last 'dogs in the 2012 Holiday Bowl when they crushed UCLA, 49-26. They are 7-1 ATS with four outright victories in their last eight games as 'dogs.

Notre Dame at Arizona State

Sportsbook has Arizona State tabbed as a two-point home favorite vs. Notre Dame. The Sun Devils will be looking to avenge a 37-34 loss to the Fighting Irish at Jerry World in Arlington last season.

Todd Graham's team has three remaining games against one-loss schools and controls its destiny to get to the Pac-12 Championship Game. In other words, ASU will find itself in the College Football Playoff if it wins the rest of its games.

The same can be said for Brian Kelly's team, which closes the regular season at Southern Cal. It also hosts Louisville in South Bend in a game that will become bigger if U of L can upset unbeaten Florida St. on Thursday night.

Notre Dame owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a road 'dog during Kelly's tenure. Meanwhile, ASU is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite on Graham's watch.

ASU has a huge game in Tempe this weekend against Utah, while Notre Dame is in Landover to face Navy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams

The headliner of the ACC schedule will be the Thursday night contest, as defending national champ Florida State, again surrounding by off-the-field controversy, heads to Louisville for a date with the Cardinals. Papa John's Stadium is not an easy place to play, and if the Seminoles aren't on point, it could be a tough weekend. Outside of FSU, no one else has a legitimate shot at the four-team playoff, so FSU is the conference flag carrier.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 5-3 2-2 5-3 2-5-1
Clemson 6-2 5-1 4-4 3-5
Duke 6-1 2-1 4-2-1 1-5
Florida State 7-0 4-0 1-6 3-4
Georgia Tech 6-2 3-2 4-4 5-3
Louisville 6-2 4-2 5-3 1-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 5-3 2-2 4-4 3-5
North Carolina 4-4 2-2 3-5 4-3
North Carolina State 4-4 0-4 4-4 3-4-1
Pittsburgh 4-4 2-2 3-4-1 3-4-1
Syracuse 3-5 1-3 4-4 2-5-1
Virginia 4-4 2-2 5-2-1 3-5
Virginia Tech 4-4 1-3 3-5 2-5
Wake Forest 2-6 0-5 4-4 1-7


Florida State at Louisville (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)
The defending champs hit the road after last week's bye looking to get on track. While they have been winning, they're still just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in their past four home games and 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home record. As mentioned above, there is off-the-field controversy with RB Karlos Williams and an alleged domestic violence issue. The soap opera continues in Tallahassee. For Louisville, they are 4-1 ATS in the past five against a winning team, 16-5 ATS in their past 21 conference tilts dating back to their days in the AAC and Big East, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. FSU will need to play at its best to come home with a victory.

Duke at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Duke takes it on the road to the Steel City looking to come home with another win and cover. The Blue Devils, already bowl eligible have posted a 10-2-1 ATS mark in the past 13 games on a grass surface, and they're 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 games overall. In addition, Duke is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 road games, although they were humbled at Georgia Tech in their last road adventure. Duke is also 9-2 ATS in the past 11 conference tilts. For Pitt, they have struggled with a 1-4-1 ATS mark in the past six, and they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games at home. However, they are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against a team with a winning road mark. These two teams played to an exciting 58-55 final last season in Durham, but this year things should be markedly different. The under is 6-0 in Duke's past six ACC games, and 5-1 in their past six overall while going 39-19-2 in their past 60 away from Wallace Wade. The under is 4-1 in Pitt's past five, and 3-1-1 in the past five against a team with a winning overall mark.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Boston College travels to Blacksburg looking to become bowl eligible and pave the way toward securing an upper-tier bowl in the conference, while Virginia Tech is looking to simply remain alive for a postseason bid. This one will be tough for the Hokies, as Boston College is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Blacksburg, and 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall in this series. Neither team has been particularly impressive against the number recently, with BC going 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road tilts, but Virginia Tech going just 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four games at home. The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record, however.

North Carolina at Miami (Fla.) (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
North Carolina put the skids on its losing streak, winning in dramatic fashion at Virginia last week. Miami finally ended their losing ways on the road at Virginia Tech, thumping the Hokies soundly in their own shack last Thursday. These are two teams feeling good about themselves finally, but only one team will continue that euphoria after Saturday's tilt. The Heels, for all of their troubles on the defensive side of the ball, are still 7-3 ATS in the past 10 conference games, while the Canes are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles, and just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 games overall. However, Miami is 11-5 ATS in their past 16 at home, while UNC is 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games against a team with a winning home record.

North Carolina State at Syracuse (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)
Syracuse returns from a respectable showing, especially defensively, at Clemson last week, albeit a loss. North Carolina State has been difficult to figure, as they played Florida State tight, but then were bombed by Clemson and Boston College. N.C. State is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight ACC games, and 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall. They're also an abysmal 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 away from Raleigh. 'Cuse can hold their heads high after going 4-1 ATS in the past five games, although they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five. However, that cover came last time out at home against Florida State. The better play could be the under, which has hit in six of the past seven road games for the Wolfpack against a team with a losing home record. The under is also 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is 5-1-1 in Syracuse's past seven, and 6-2 in their past eight following a straight-up loss.

Virginia at Georgia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Virginia started the season as cover kings, but they have been slipping lately, failing to cover in each of the past two against Duke on the road and UNC at home. In fact, they're just 6-13-2 ATS in their past 21 conference games, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 following an ATS loss. Georgia Tech has been a little sketchy lately, too, starting out 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, but going just 1-2 SU/ATS over the past three. Their offense has been brilliant, averaging 49.5 points per game over the past two, but defense has been an issue all season, with the Yellow Jackets allowing 24 or more points in five of the past six.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 rolls on into November, and there are still plenty of teams who can stake a claim to a division title and spot in the league championship game. Some dreams will be dashed this weekend, depending upon how things break. The clear marquee game of the schedule will be in Tempe, where Utah and Arizona State battle for supremacy down south. Who would have ever though that would be the headliner game of any weekend this season?


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-1 3-1 3-4 3-4
Arizona State 6-1 4-1 4-3 3-4
California 4-4 2-4 5-3 5-3
Colorado 2-6 0-5 4-4 5-3
Oregon 7-1 4-1 4-4 4-3-1
Oregon State 4-3 1-3 2-5 3-3-1
Southern California 5-3 4-2 5-3 4-4
Stanford 5-3 3-2 4-4 1-6
UCLA 6-2 4-2 1-7 3-4-1
Utah 6-1 3-1 6-1 2-4-1
Washington 5-3 1-3 3-5 2-6
Washington State 2-6 1-4 3-5 4-4


Washington at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Washington heads to Boulder looking to score another win and become bowl eligible, while Colorado hopes to avoid another narrow, heartbreaking loss. The Huskies were dropped at home in a soggy game against Arizona State last weekend, their second straight loss in a row. However, they are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a losing overall record. They haven't fared well away from Seattle, however, going just 6-13 ATS in their past 19 road games. Colorado nearly pulled off a much-needed win last week against UCLA, but faltered in overtime. It was their second OT battle in four weeks, and both games ended in similar disappointment. Colorado is a respectable 4-2 ATS over its past six games, and the over has connected in four straight for the Buffs.

Southern California at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Trojans head to the Palouse looking to take out some aggressions after losing a heartbreaker at Rice-Eccles last weekend in Utah. USC is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to Pullman, and the road team has covered each of the past four meetings in this series, including Washington State's stunning 10-7 win at the Coliseum last year. Despite that low-scoring game, the over is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings in this series, including a perfect 7-0 in the past seven at Washington State. The over is 34-16-1 in the past 51 for the Cougs at home, while the over is 4-0 in USC's past four road games against a team with a losing home record.

Stanford at Oregon (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
This game has lost some of its luster due to Stanford's rare three-loss season to date, but it is still very important. Plus, Oregon can ill-afford to look past the defensive-minded Cardinal. The Cardinal finally saw the over cash for the first time in seven games last weekend. Now, they need to work on covering. They're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. However, Stanford is 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 Pac-12 battles. However, that type of dominance seems so long ago given the difficulties of the current season. Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven at Autzen Stadium, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. The dog has covered five of the past six in this series.

California at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
After an impressive start to the season which saw California as a division leader briefly, the Bears have fallen on hard times. Cal has dropped three straight, and they're just 1-2 ATS during the span. Oregon State has had an equally rough go of it lately, starting out 3-0 SU, but going just 1-3 SU/ATS over the past four outings, including a 38-14 whitewashing from Stanford in Palo Alto last weekend. Cal is just 7-18 ATS in the past 25 overall, and 5-13 ATS in their past 18 against a team with a winning overall mark. In addition, Cal is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven with Oregon State, and the favorite has connected in four straight in the series.
Arizona at UCLA (ESPN, 13:00 p.m.)
This is essentially an elimination game for the loser in the Pac-12 South Division, especially for UCLA. Neither team has been particularly attractive against the number lately, with Arizona going 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 0-4 ATS in their past four on grass. Their lone cover against a winning team was that upset at Oregon as a 21-point favorite three weeks ago. UCLA has posted an 0-4 ATS mark in their past four Pac-12 games, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, while managing only one cover in five tries against a team with a winning record. The favorite has cashed in six of the past seven in this series, and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. However, the home team is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

Utah at Arizona State (ESPN, 11:00 p.m.)
The game of the weekend, and who could have forseen this at the start of the season, will be the late-night game. Utah kept their conference title hopes alive with a stunning last-season win over USC last weekend. Arizona State fought through the raindrops to record an impressive road win at Washington last week. The Utes are on fire against the number, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall, including a 6-0 ATS mark in their past six against a team with an overall winning mark. Arizona State started out 1-3 ATS in their first four, but they're 3-0 ATS in the past three games. Their 62-27 home loss to UCLA is looking like quite the anomaly, but given the fact Utah won at UCLA, the Utes look mighty attractive getting almost a touchdown in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 10
By Kevin Rogers

Heading into the first Saturday of November, there are a handful of teams looking to avoid getting routed in conference action. Florida is fresh off the bye week, taking on rival Georgia in Jacksonville, while Kansas is a heavy underdog against an explosive Baylor squad. We’ll start with a battle of two military schools for an early kickoff.

Army (+3 ½) vs. Air Force – 11:30 AM EST

Since outlasting Buffalo in the season opener, Army has failed to cover in five of the past six games. The Black Knights have allowed at least 35 points five times, while getting blown out as a short road favorite against previously winless Kent two weeks ago. The only positive for Army is its running game, which averages 319 yards/game, as the Black Knights have outgained six of their seven opponents on the ground.

Air Force has won four of five, but failed to cover in a 35-31 home victory against New Mexico as seven-point favorites in its previous contest. The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in all three road games, while their lone victory on the highway came against Georgia State, who has won just one game this season. Air Force has dominated this series over the years, grabbing seven of the past eight meetings with Army.

Iowa State (+16 ½) vs. Oklahoma – 12:00 PM EST

The Cyclones are just 2-5 on the season, but ISU has managed a 3-1-1 ATS record as a double-digit underdog. Iowa State’s defense has been ripped up, giving up at least 30 points in six of seven games, including a 48-spot to Texas two weeks ago in a three-point road loss. It will be tough sledding for the ‘Clones on Saturday, as ISU has scored more than 10 points against Oklahoma just once in the past nine meetings, while losing all nine of those games.

The Sooners have dropped two of three since a 4-0 start, pretty much ruining any chance at making the college football playoff this season. Oklahoma has failed to cover three straight games, while coming off a 31-30 home setback to Kansas State two weeks ago. Bob Stoops’ team owns a 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS record off a defeat since 2009, while amazingly facing Iowa State for the fourth straight season when coming off a loss in the previous game.

Florida (+13) vs. Georgia – 3:30 PM EST

When these two SEC East rivals hook up in Jacksonville annually, the records are thrown out. It’s hard to ignore Florida’s 3-3 mark, as this Gators’ team has lost 10 of its past 13 games dating back to last season. UF is fresh off an embarrassing homecoming loss to Missouri two weeks ago at the Swamp, 42-13, the third loss in the past four games. Since trouncing Eastern Michigan in the opener, the Gators have compiled a 1-4 ATS record, which includes a one-point win in a pick-em spot at Tennessee.

From 2005 through 2010, the Gators took five of six matchups from Georgia. However, the Bulldogs have bounced back the last three seasons with three straight win over Florida. UGA is riding a five-game winning streak since getting stunned at South Carolina, while topping the 34-point mark in all five SEC games this season.

Kansas (+36) at Baylor – 4:00 PM EST

The Jayhawks have been more competitive since the firing of head coach Charlie Weis, covering two of the past three games. Kansas owns a 2-5 record, but lost by 13 at Texas Tech and by 10 to Oklahoma State, as the Jayhawks look to snap a four-game skid to Baylor. The Bears have scored at least 41 points in three of the past four wins over KU, including a 59-14 blowout in Lawrence last season.

Baylor will be in full angry mode after falling at West Virginia two weeks ago, 41-27, while committing 18 penalties. The Bears are playing just their second home game since early September, as Baylor is 4-0-1 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite this season. Baylor has dominated opponents the last few seasons when laying at least 10 points in Waco, going 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in this role.

Hawaii (+3) vs. Utah State – 11:00 PM EST

Hawaii’s offense has been anemic all season long, scoring 18 points or less in five of eight games. However, the Warriors have covered four of five home contests, including in losses as an underdog to Washington and Oregon State early in the season. Hawaii hasn’t been as fortunate in the ‘dog role of late, posting an 0-3-1 ATS record when receiving points, while losing at home last week to Nevada as three-point ‘dogs.

Utah State has lost three games this season, while winning back-to-back games off each defeat. The Aggies try to keep that trend alive this week, after losing at Colorado State two weeks ago then beating UNLV last Saturday. The Aggies are favored on the road for the first time this season, while putting together a 1-3 ATS record as a favorite. Since 2012, Utah State owns an impressive 5-1 ATS record in the road favorite role, but has lost three of the past four visits to Honolulu.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Noles face road test

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (7-0) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -3.5, Total: 52

No. 2 Florida State looks to protect its flawless record when its heads to Louisville on Thursday night.

The Seminoles have not lost since Nov. 24, 2012, putting their streak at 23 straight victories. They have defeated their opponents this season by an average of 16.3 PPG, but are still a meager 1-6 ATS. FSU once again failed to cover in its most recent contest on Oct. 18 against No. 5 Notre Dame, as the 'Noles escaped with a 31-27 win as nine-point favorites at home. The Irish actually outgained FSU by a sizable 470-323 margin in that contest while the Seminoles had a weak 50 rushing yards on 1.9 YPC while forcing two turnovers.

Louisville is a solid 5-3 ATS on the season and has gone a perfect 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) when playing at home. In its last game on Oct. 18, it hosted NC State as a big 18-point favorite and earned a 30-18 victory. The Cardinals were able to answer all of NC State’s scores in the second half after building up a 17-6 lead at halftime in a game where each team compiled more than 350 yards of total offense while Louisville was able to get it done on the ground (166 rush yards, 5.0 YPC) while not committing a turnover.

These two programs have not faced each other since the 2002 campaign when the Cardinals pulled out a big 26-20 upset as 14-point underdogs after trailing 13-6 at the half. Some trends to keep an eye on for this one include Louisville's meager 7-20 ATS record in home games after playing three straight conference games since 1992, while Florida State has managed to go only 1-7 ATS in the past three seasons after failing to cover the spread in two of their previous three games.

On the injury report HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable for Florida State, while the status of WR James Quick (ankle) and LB Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring) should be watched as they were both injured last game while being listed as probable for this contest.

Florida State has one of the better aerial attacks in the nation, producing 316.7 passing YPG (14th in nation) while struggling on the ground (125.9 YPG, 104th in FBS) and rank 19th in scoring (37.9 PPG). Last season’s Heisman trophy winner, QB Jameis Winston (1,878 pass yards, 13 TD, 6 INT) is relied on heavily in this offense and has at least 31 attempts in five of his six games. He has posted three 300-yard performances in that time while hitting for 71% of his passes on the season.

Joining him in the backfield is HB Karlos Williams (378 rush yards, 7 TD) who has scored at least one touchdown in 4-of-6 games played while getting over the century mark just once. Williams may not play in this game though, with off-field problems regarding an alleged drug-deal robbery and a domestic battery case. If Williams doesn't play, the 'Noles will lean more heavily on freshman HB Dalvin Cook (270 rush yards, 3 TD) who has also done well recently with a 122-yard effort (5.3 YPC) and a touchdown against Syracuse two games ago.

WR Rashad Greene (791 rec yards, 4 TD) has been dominant in the receiving game with 6+ receptions in five of seven games while averaging 15.2 yards per catch. WR Jesus Wilson (307 rec yards) also has been big in the red zone with 4 TD of his own.

Their defense has looked pretty good while giving up 21.6 PPG to their opponents and allowing 146.6 YPG on the ground. The big performances on this side of the ball have come from LB Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 1 sack) and DB Jalen Ramsey (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).

Louisville’s offense has been below average this year, tallying 225.8 YPG in the air (72nd in nation) and 144.6 YPG on the ground (90th in FBS) and scoring 30.9 PPG (58th in nation). QB Will Gardner (1,151 pass yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has missed two games this season and has both his interceptions in one contest. He has multiple passing touchdowns in five of six games while hitting on just 57.3% of his passes for 7.0 YPA.

The run game is split between HBs Brandon Radcliff (389 rush yards, 6 TD) and Dominique Brown (374 rush yards, 4 TD) while HB Michael Dyer (238 rush yards, 1 TD) was the go-to guy in the most recent game as he had 173 yards on 24 attempts (7.2 YPC) with a score against NC State. WR James Quick (451 rec yards, 3 TDs) is probable for this game and has two performances with more than 100 yards on the year while WR Eli Rogers (316 rec yards, 2 TD) has been effective as the slot receiver with a score in each of the past two games.

LB Lorenzo Mauldin (35 tackles, 6 sacks) and DL Sheldon Rankins (29 tackles, 5 sacks) have given opposing offenses plenty of headaches as their defense as a whole ranks fourth in the nation in scoring defense with 14.6 PPG allowed.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Florida State at Louisville
By Joe Nelson

The Thursday night showcase games for the ACC have not exactly been matchups of major national significance that last two weeks but that changes this week. The undefeated defending national champions will face a difficult road game for the first time all season as Florida State visits Louisville in an ACC Atlantic clash that could alter the national landscape should the Cardinals deliver an upset. Here is a look at the teams and the matchup for Thursday night college football.

Match-up: Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
Venue: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Thursday, October 30, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Florida State -5
Last Meeting: 2002, Louisville 26-20 (+15) at home

Florida State may not be #1 in any of the rankings and the Seminoles have certainly had some lackluster performances this season but they are 7-0 and riding a 23-game winning streak, still holding the college football throne so to speak. While right now the case can be made that Florida State might not be one of the best four teams in the country, by season's end if the Seminoles are 13-0 with another ACC Championship, there is no question that they will be one of the four teams in the national playoff.

This season has been marred by controversy with star quarterback and 2013 Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston involved in a number of off-the-field transgressions, ultimately leading to his suspension for the game with Clemson. It seems like every week there is a new story or concern and this week it involved running back Karlos Williams and a domestic assault investigation. Williams is the leading rusher for the Seminoles and his status is in question for a game that many feel could be the most difficult remaining game for Florida State.

Florida State is averaging 38 points per game this season but this has been a much more pass-oriented team than last season with a decline of about 80 yards per game on the ground at this point in the season. Florida State is still one of the top passing teams in the nation with currently nearly an identical per game total in the air as last season's championship squad. Scoring points has not been the issue for the Seminoles in a 7-0 start that has featured just one narrow ATS win however.

The Florida State defense certainly lost some key players from last season but after allowing just 12 points per game and 282 yards per game this year's squad has allowed more than 100 more yards per game and nearly 10 more points per game in 2014. The #1 team in the nation in yards per game allowed this season is Thursday's opponent, Louisville. The Cardinals are allowing just 238 yards per game this season vs. FBS teams, best in the nation by 32 yards. Louisville has the second best scoring defense in the nation surrendering fewer than 14 points per game vs. FBS competition.

Louisville was outstanding on defense last season in a 12-1 campaign under Charlie Strong but most felt the biggest impact of the return of a former Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino would be on offense. Petrino was wildly successful at Louisville before leaving to take the Atlanta Falcons job, a short-lived endeavor that ended in embarrassing fashion. Petrino's subsequent stay at Arkansas ended in even more humiliating fashion but resurfacing the past two years at Western Kentucky it is clear that Petrino can coach, regardless of his personal faults.

Replacing Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback has been a huge challenge and in a 6-2 start for the Cardinals Louisville has actually used four different quarterbacks at times this season. Sophomore Will Gardner is leading the way but he missed two games with a knee injury as freshman Reggie Bonnafon has played significantly as well this season. Gardner has 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions but the completion percentages have been very low for the entire group especially compared to the efficiency that the offense had last season under the current starter for the Minnesota Vikings.

Five players have scored rushing touchdowns for Louisville this season as it has been a committee approach with Michael Dyer reemerging as the main threat in the last game for the Cardinals with his best game since the 2011 season. The offensive numbers are poor for the Cardinals overall however, ranking 111th nationally in total offense and the scoring average of nearly 31 points per game is inflated with 66 points put up against FCS Murray State.

Louisville does have two losses in conference play but both games were on the road and the losses came by a total of just eight points combined. Louisville's opening week win over Miami is looking more impressive by the week but the rest of the resume does lack substance and this will obviously be a huge step up in class as far as the opposition for the Louisville defense. Florida State would likely still win the ACC Atlantic even if they are upset this week but this is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to make a national splash and climb back into the rankings. For the Seminoles it will be another team giving the defending champions their best shot in a game of survival. Florida State does play at Miami in two weeks and will host games with Virginia, Boston College, and Florida to close out the regular season for a fairly challenging close to the season before likely facing an ACC title game. There is no margin for error for the Seminoles however.

Many felt before the season a one-loss Florida State team could still make the four-team national playoff but that looks less likely at this point and it seems that if there winds up being a close call, the Seminoles might be penalized for all the negative storylines surrounding the team as while the program is back to being at the top of the college football mountain, its image as villainous and perhaps less than honorable program has also returned.

Florida State Historical Trends: Florida State is 7-0 S/U but 1-6 ATS this season narrowly covering as a heavy home favorite against Wake Forest for the lone ATS win of the season. Florida State was 11-3 ATS in last season's 14-0 campaign. These teams have not met since 2002 but Louisville has covered in each of the last four meetings though with just one S/U win. Since 2003 Florida State is on a 19-24 ATS run as a road favorite but the Seminoles are 6-3 ATS in the last nine instances as a single-digit road favorite.

Louisville Historical Trends: Louisville is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games as an underdog including covering in the lone instance this season (at Clemson). Louisville is just 9-15 ATS as a home underdog going back to 1994, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine instances going back to the 2008 season. Louisville has not been a home underdog since 2011 however.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Thursday, October 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at GEORGIA SOUTHERN
GS 6-2 vs. lien in 2014. Troy down TY but has covered last five as Sun Belt road dog.

Slight to Troy, based on extended trends.


FLORIDA STATE at LOUISVILLE
Noles 1-6 vs. line this season, and no covers last four away from Tallahassee. Cards 1-0 as dog TY, and covers in 10 of last 11 as dog.

'Ville, based on recent trends.



Friday, October 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TULSA at MEMPHIS
Tulsa 2-5 vs. line TY, 5-14 vs. spread since 2013. Tigers have covered 8 of last 12 since late LY.

Memphis, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at TULANE
Wave covers last 2 TY, now 2-1 vs. line in new stadium, now 12-6 vs. spread last 18 as host (counts LY bowl game and Superdome games 2012-13).

Tulane, based on team trends.



Saturday, November 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md)
Navy has covered 3 of last 5 meetings and 12 of last 20 vs. Irish. Mids 18-9 as dog for Niumatalolo since 2009.

Navy, based on team trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer on 15-32-1 spread run since late 2010. BC has covered last three meetings, and Eagles have covered 4 of last 6 this season.

BC, based on team and series trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE
ECU no covers last three after 4-0 break vs. gate vs. spread. Pirates 1-5 last six as visiting chalk. But Owls no covers last three TY after 11-5 spread run prior.

Slight to Temple, based on team trends.


UCF at UCONN
Diaco 1-6 vs. lint TY, though Huskies had been 8-1 as Rentsch dog 2011-13. UCF only 1-5 last six as chalk away from Orlando.

Slight to UConn, base don extended trends.


WISCONSIN at RUTGERS
Wiscy 3-7 vs. line last 10 since late 2013. 'Gers 14-6 last 20 as dog (8-4 for Flood since 2012).

Rutgers, based on recent trends.


NC STATE at SYRACUSE
Pack a bit back and forth vs. line TY but still no SU ACC wins, now 0-12 SU in league play for Doeren. But Pack is 2-1 vs. line away TY and gets points here. Cuse only 3-5 vs. spread last 8 at Carrier Dome.

NC State, based on recent trends.


DUKE at PITTSBURGH
Cutcliffe 5-2 vs. line TY, 15-5-1 since 2013, 7-2-1 last 10 away. Lost high-scoring 58-55 shootout vs. Pitt LY.

Duke, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at PENN STATE
These teams used to regularly meet long ago, now reunited in an interesting twist to Big Ten expansion. James Franklin 4-3 vs. line in 2014 after 25-14 spread mark previous three years at Vandy. Terps 7-4 as visiting dog since 2012.

Slight to PSU, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA
Heels closed 7-1 vs. line LY after dropping first five vs. number and are in same pattern this season, now three covers in a row after five spread Ls to open season! Visiting dog has covered this game the past two years. Canes have covered last three at home after dropping previous four vs. spread as host.

UNC, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE
GSU 7-1 vs. line on road since 2013, also 12-3 last 16 as DD dog.

GSU, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at ARMY
Falcs reclaim Commander in Chief's Trophy with win here. Falcs have won and covered 7 of last 8 trips to Michie, though did lose last visit in 2012. Force 13-4 vs. spread last 17 vs. West Point. Black Knights 7-4 last 11 as Michie dog but 0-1 in role TY.

Air Force, based on series trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN
CMU has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Enos 4-0 as visiting chalk since 2012 (0-0 TY).

CMU, based on team and series trends.


NORTHWESTERN at IOWA
Home team has won and covered last four meetings. After brief rally, NU has lost and failed to cover last two, putting pat Fitz 2-5 vs. line TY and 3-13 last 16 since early 2013. NU 12-4 as visiting dog 2008-12 but 2-3 in role since. Ferentz, however, only 1-3 vs. line at Iowa City TY and 5-11 as home chalk since 2012.

Slight to NU, based on extended trends.


TEXAS at TEXAS TECH
Horns have won SU last five meetings. TT 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread at home.

Texas, based on team and series trends.


PURDUE at NEBRASKA
Purdue has quietly surged, covering last three and five of last six this season. Boilermakers have also covered last four away from Ross-Ade. Bo Pelini 6-2 vs. line TY and 12-7 as Lincoln chalk since 2012 (3-1 TY, but 3-4 LY).

Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.


KANSAS at BAYLOR
Jayhawks unbeaten vs. line in three since Weis dismissed, but have been crushed last two years by Baylor. Briles 19-3 vs. spread as host since 2011.

Baylor, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO
Phenom WMU now 8-0 vs. line in 2014. Miami 5-9-1 last 14 vs. points at Yager.

WMU, based on team trends.


AUBURN at OLE MISS
Auburn has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. Ole Miss, but Hugh Freeze now 7-1 SU and vs. line TY and 33-12-1 vs. spread since 2011. Malzahn 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY.

Ole Miss, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at MISSOURI
Tigers have won and covered in similar comfy fashion past two years. Pinkel, however, just 1-4 vs. line as host TY.

Slight to UK, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
MSU 6-1 vs. line TY and 11-1 last 12 since late 2013. Mullen has won and covered last two years vs. Arkansas. Hogs 6-1 last 7 vs. line TY

MSU, based on team and recent series trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at LA TECH
WKU 2-4 vs. line last five TY, La Tech 5-2 vs. spread in 2014.

LT, based on recent trends.


UL-MONROE at TEXAS A&M
Ags having a rough go with four straight spread Ls and 1-5 vs. line last six TY. A&M on 4-12 spread slide since mid 2013, only 4-4 vs. line. But ULM only 0-5-1 vs. spread last five TY. Warhawks 1-4-1 last six as DD dog.

Slight to ULM, based on extended A&M spread woes.


BYU at MTSU
Cougs no SU wins last four TY and no covers last six TY. Though Stockstill 3-1 vs. line at Johnny Floyd Stadium TY and covers last three as home dog.

MTSU, based on recent trends.


TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA
Revenge for Spurrier after loss at Knoxville LY but Cocks only 2-6 vs. spread in 2014. Vols have covered last two meetings.

Slight to UT, based on recent SC struggles.


FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville)
Richt on march with big wins and covers last two, both away from Athens. Richt 2-0-1 vs. line last three vs. Muschamp. Muschamp 2-4 vs. line TY, ,6-17-1 last 24 on board since mid 2012, 13-26-1 last 40 since early 2011.

Georgia, based on team trends.


USC at WASHINGTON STATE
Leach beat SC 10-7 LY at Coliseum and also covered last two years vs. U-Dub and Sark. Trojans 3-12 vs. line last 15 as visitor (1-3 TY).

WSU, based on team trends.


STANFORD at OREGON
Cards have won and covered last two vs. Ducks. Tree 5-0-1 as dog since 2011 for Shaw, though no covers last four away from Palo Alto. Ducks have now won and covered last three in 2012 after 1-10 reg.-season spread run.

Stanford, based on team and recent series trends.


OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE
Stoops no covers last three in 2014 and just 2-4 last six as chalk away from Norman. OU has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. ISU and Cyclones haven't won SU in series since 1990! Prior to that it was 1961! ISU quietly surging with 5-1-1 spread mark last six this season and 4-0-1 as dog.

ISU, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS STATE
Home team has won SU last three meetings but Bill Snyder has covered all of those three. Snyder 14-6 vs. spread last 19 at Manhattan and 31-14-1 overall vs. line since 2011. Gundy 0-4-1 vs. line last five TY.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN
Wolverines also 6-5 as home chalk since 2013 (2-3 TY), and Hoke 15-16-1 last 32 on board. Hoosiers 2-7 vs. line last nine as visitor (1-2 TY).

Michigan, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH
Cavs no covers last 3 TY after five straight Ws vs. line to open campaign. Home team 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. GT just 1-3 vs. line as host TY after 9-4 home chalk mark past two seasons.

Slight GT, based on series trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at IDAHO
Ark State was 5-1 vs. line prior to ULL loss. Red Wolves 7-3 last 10 as visiting chalk. Idaho has covered last three TY and is 5-2 vs. line in 2014, though only 1-2 vs. spread at Kibbie TY and now 2-11 vs. spread as host since 2012.

Ark State, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE
Cajuns might be turned around with back-to-back impressive wins and covers after dropping four straight vs. line. But road warrior USA has won and covered all three as visitor this season and is 7-2 vs. spread on road since 2013.

USA, based on Jag road marks.


ODU at VANDERBILT
Vandy back to the Bobby Johnson-type teams TY, poor chalk (0-3 at home in role) after succeeding under James Franklin past three years.

ODU, based on recent Vandy home chalk woes.


RICE at FIU
Rice on 19-9 spread uptick since mid 2012 and has covered last 4 and 5 of 6 this season. FIU improved and had covered 6 of 7 prior to Marshall loss. Rice 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as visitor.

Rice, based on extended trends.


WASHINGTON at COLORADO
Mike M 4-0 vs. line at Boulder TY and 8-2 vs. spread at Folsom Field since arriving at CU in 2013. Though Huskies have won and covered big last three meetings.

CU, based on home marks.


CAL at OREGON STATE
Dykes 3-0 vs. line on road (all as dog) this season. Beavs just 2-7 vs. spread last nine at Corvallis, though Riley has won and covered last two and 6 of last 7 vs. Bears.

Cal, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA at UCLA
Mora has won and covered last two vs. Rodriguez (it was 66-10 in 2012) but Bruins only 1-7 vs. spread in 2014 and no covers in three tries at home. Bruins also no covers last four at Rose Bowl since late 2013.

Arizona, based on recent UCLA woes.


COLORADO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE
SJSU has won and covered the last three years vs. CSU but Rams are on 18-7 spread uptick for McElwain, 9-2 vs. line last 11 away from Fort Collins.

Slight to SJSU, based on series trends.


UTAH at ARIZONA STATE
ASU 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line last three years vs. Utes, and Graham 6-3 as Pac-12 home chalk since 2012. Utes 3-0 vs. line away this season.

Slight to ASU, based on series trends.


TCU at WEST VIRGINIA
These teams have played OT games the past two seasons. Frogs are 7-0 vs. line in 2014 (2-0 away). Holgorsen 1-1 as home dog TY and 2-3 in role since last season.

Slight to TCU, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at SOUTH FLORIDA
Cougs 2-0 vs. line away TY and have covered eight straight as visitor dating to late 2012. USF HC Taggart 19-8 as dog (WKU & USF) since 2011.

UH, based on team trends.


UAB at FAU
FAU has won and covered last three meetings (2010-121-13). Owls now 3-0 vs. line at Boca Raton TY and 6-1 last seven vs. line as host. UAB has dropped 4 of last 6 vs. line.

FAU, based on team and series trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP
Improved USM three straight covers on road. UTEP 3-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY.

Slight to USM, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at UNLV
Hauck 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Lobos. But Hauck just 5-8 as chalk with Rebs. Road team is 7-0 vs. line in UNM games TY, and Lobos 6-1 last seven as road dog.

UNM, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE
Aggies 3-0 vs. line in Las Cruces TY and have covered five straight at home (and last four as home dog) since late 2013. Franchione 2-5 last seven as chalk.

NMSU, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at OHIO STATE
Illini no SU wins over Bucks since 2007. Illini covered as road dog at Wiscy but was 1-9 in role for Beckman in ten previous tries (since 2012).

OSU, based on recent trends.


WYOMING at FRESNO STATE
FSU crushed Wyo past two years. Wyo on 4-12 spread slide since early 2013.

FSU, based on team and series trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA
Aztecs have won and covered wild games the past two years, both in OT. Rocky Long 7-2 last nine vs. line on MW road. Pack 3-7 vs. line last 9 as MW host.

Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at HAWAII
Home team 7-1 vs. line in Hawaii games TY. Chow 9-4 vs. spread last 13 in Honolulu.

Slight to UH, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football roundup: Georgia appeals Gurley suspension
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The NCAA announced Wednesday that Georgia Bulldogs running back Todd Gurley must sit out two more games for accepting more than $3,000 in cash from multiple individuals for autographed memorabilia.

Georgia said it will appeal the decision "immediately."

According to the NCAA, Gurley received the cash for signing memorabilia and other items over two years and must repay a portion of the money he received to a charity of his choice. He also must complete 40 hours of community service as conditions of his reinstatement.

Gurley has already missed two games for the No. 11 Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1 SEC). Unless he wins his appeal, Gurley will miss Saturday's game against the Florida Gators in Jacksonville and next week's game at Kentucky. He would be eligible to return Nov. 15 against Auburn.


---Utah senior wide receiver Dres Anderson will miss the remainder of the 2014 season because of a knee injury, according to the school.

Anderson is currently ranked as the No. 14 wide receiver prospect for the 2015 NFL Draft by NFLDraftScout.com and No. 90 prospect overall. He was considered a second day draft pick, but the severity of his injury could push him out of the top 100.

Anderson, a team captain, apparently was injured in the fourth quarter of last week's 24-21 win over USC.


---When you're No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings and have only one game left against another ranked team, you're relying on a lot of help to eventually reach the first ever Final Four, football style.

That's exactly where Michigan State is after the initial rankings were released Tuesday. The Spartans are the highest-ranked team in the Big Ten, but that doesn't mean much considering each of the other Power Five conferences has a team rated higher.

The committee is supposed to give extra weight to conference champions, and Michigan State is banking on that being the case. It will need the four SEC teams ahead of it to beat each other up, maybe hope for a loss from Florida State and hope teams like Kansas State, Notre Dame or Georgia don't run the table and jump ahead. All of this, of course, is assuming the Spartans don't lose again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Colorado State Rams (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)

This week: -6.5 at San Jose State

Don’t be fooled by the fact that San Jose State boasts the nation’s leading pass defense. After all, it just faced a Navy team that attempted eight passes. The Spartans have not yet played an opponent that has more pass attempts than rushes on the season.

Head coach Ron Caragher basically admitted in his most recent press conference that his team has not been tested through the air. That may not be a good thing when the trend suddenly changes against Colorado State. The Rams’ feature senior quarterback Garrett Grayson, who earned Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors after CSU’s 45-31 win over Wyoming last Saturday. He leads the Mountain West with 2,456 passing yards and 21 touchdowns.

If SJSU wants to keep the Rams’ offense off the field, it won’t be helped in that effort with the two running backs expected to lead the way heading into this season on the sideline. Jarrod Lawson is suspended and Thomas Tucker is out for the year with a foot injury.

Team to beware: Army Black Knights (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS)

This week: +3.5 vs. Air Force

Army has some well-documented issues on its hands heading into this weekend’s home game against Air Force. A recent scandal emerged when it was reported that a recruiting trip in January included alcohol, women, and the general VIP treatment in order to impress possible incoming freshman. Starting quarterback Angel Santiago was allegedly among those involved.

A spokeswoman said the institution is coming down hard on the cadets with administrative punishments, but will not affect anyone athletically. Santiago and everyone else is expected to be on the field this Saturday.

It’s not like Army needs any distractions, either. It has lost two in a row by at least 20 points and fell 48-28 last season at Air Force. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to West Point.

Total team: Georgia Southern Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 O/U)

This week: vs. Troy

The college football week begins on Thursday with Georgia Southern vs. Troy (and FSU at Louisville, which also kicks off at 7:30 p.m.). Scoring should come in bunches in Statesboro, where the Eagles are coming off a 69-31 rout of Georgia State last Saturday. Behind an offensive line that has been awesome all season, six different GSU players scored rushing touchdowns and three had at least 12 carries.

It will be short week of preparation for both teams, which generally tends to hurt more on the defensive side of the ball. Troy at least got to play last Friday instead of Saturday (lost to South Alabama 27-13) but will have to travel on Wednesday—albeit a short distance. The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last seven overall and 4-0 in the Trojans’ last four Thursday games.

 

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NCAAF line watch: Best wait late to fade 7-0 ATS TCU
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats (-13.5)

Kansas State opened as 13-point home favorites over Oklahoma State, but expect this line to tick up at least to the key number of 14. The Wildcats were in a terrible situational spot last Saturday after upsetting Oklahoma on the road the week before, but they still came to play and beat Texas 23-0.

Oklahoma State is finally struggling like many thought it would at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 76-19. They’ve shown nothing that indicates they can turn things around, especially against a good team like Kansas State.

It would be wise to lay the points now with Kansas State before the line goes up to and possibly higher than the key number of 14.

Spread to wait on

TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers (+6)

Texas Christian was originally posted as a 4-point road favorite at West Virginia, and the early money quickly came in on the Horned Frogs, moving the line up to -6. I expect the line to go up some more, especially when the public bettors get involved.

Texas Christian comes in off an incredible 82-27 home win over Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, so they are sure to attract public money in this game. West Virginia has been undervalued all season by the oddsmakers and bettors alike, and it’s the case once again in this contest.

The home dog Mountaineers hold the value in this game and it will be greater closer to kick off.

Total to watch

Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes (46.5)

Northwestern and Iowa are two teams built the same way. Both teams have conservative coaches that prefer to play ball control and win with their defense. The Wildcats are only averaging 20.9 points per game on just 4.6 yards per play this season. The Hawkeyes are averaging 27 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.

Both defenses have played above average football this year. Northwestern is allowing only 20.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses averaging 29.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Iowa is allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.

There will be value on the Under if the oddsmakers keep this total at 45 or higher.

 

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Four fantastic futures bets that could shock the College Football Playoff
By KEVIN CAUSEY

The College Football Playoff committee has announced their first "Top 4", putting Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn and Mississippi atop the list of contenders for the national title.

However, those rankings are going to look a lot different by the time the college football season wraps up. There’s great futures value to be had looking at programs just outside of the playoff cutoff. Here are four of the better bets to crack the Top 4 and steal the national title.

TCU Horned Frogs (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS)

Odds: 12/1 to win national title
Ranking: No. 7

Right now, Kansas State is in the driver seat in the Big 12 but it has three upcoming games on the road against Top 20 opponents (Baylor, TCU, WVU) and a game versus Oklahoma State. Texas Christian has two big games left (WVU, Kansas State) but only the WVU game is on the road.

It's hard to ignore the way the Horned Frogs have played in the last two games (combined victory of 124-36) and their leader Trevone Boykin is playing as well as anybody in the conference and maybe even the nation. The Big 12 doesn't have a championship game but TCU's only loss was on the road by three points to a good Baylor team, and that loss likely won't keep the Frogs out of the Top 4 if it's their only blemish.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Odds: 20/1
Ranking: No. 10

The Irish feel like the forgotten team. In their last game, they lost to the defending national champs because of a controversial call to end the game. If FSU makes the playoff and the Irish remain a one-loss team, it will be almost impossible to keep them out of the playoff as a rematch is not only intriguing but would also mean big money to the NCAA.

Notre Dame has some roadblocks ahead (at Arizona State, vs. Northwestern, vs. Louisville and at USC) but if the Irish are truly a contender those should all be wins. They sit No. 10 but remember that Kansas State and TCU still play as well as Auburn/Ole Miss, Auburn/Alabama and Alabama/Mississippi State. That's four guaranteed losses for programs ahead of Notre Dame in the standings.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

Odds: 40/1
Ranking: No. 15

The Cornhuskers haven't at all been mentioned in the same breath as the College Football Playoff but they have a real path to the Final Four. They have four games remaining with the toughest being a Nov. 15 date at Wisconsin. If the Huskers win out then they will represent the West in the Big Ten Championship Game and if they meet Michigan State they will have a chance to avenge their only loss.

A 12-1 Big Ten Champion that has beaten the only team they lost to would look very impressive to the selection committee. They also have the leading rusher in the nation in Ameer Adbullah (1,249 yards) and he won't let Nebraska go down without a fight.

Arizona Wildcats (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Odds: 50/1
Ranking: No. 12

The Wildcats have a difficult path ahead of them but they also have the advantage of showing that they can beat Oregon (and in Autzen to boot).

The path for Arizona includes road games at UCLA and Utah and a home game against Arizona State in addition to a Pac-12 Championship rematch with Oregon. If the Cats win out, they will have as impressive a resume as anyone and would have beaten Oregon twice.

 

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Lookahead spot

Bragging rights in the Big Ten and the inside track to a spot in the College Football Playoff is on the line when Ohio State visits Michigan State in Week 11 of the NCAAF schedule. But while the Spartans get a week off to prep for this massive matchup with the Buckeyes, OSU is at home to Illinois this Saturday in a dangerous lookahead spot.

Oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as a 28-point home favorite versus the Illini. The Buckeyes nearly shot their national title chances in the foot last weekend, blowing a 17-point lead against Penn State and needing two overtimes to escape with the 31-24 win Saturday. Ohio State could dumb down the playbook in preparation for MSU and allow Illinois to sneak away with the backdoor cover. There is a lack of focus already present with this Buckeyes squad, so bettors beware.

Letdown spot

The Pittsburgh Penguins have a possible Stanley Cup preview on tap against the defending champion Los Angeles Kings Thursday night. It’s a classic matchup of the Penguins’ powerful scoring versus the Kings’ lockdown defense. And for Pittsburgh, which has already dropped two home games coming into this week, Thursday’s contest is a true litmus test to see where it really stands in the NHL’s pecking order.

The Pens are set up for a lofty letdown the game following the Kings. Pittsburgh welcomes lowly Buffalo to the Consol Energy Arena – a literal first-to-worst shift on the schedule. Depending on how Thursday’s tilt with L.A. goes, Pittsburgh could come out flat against the Sabres Saturday night. There could be big moneyline value with a flyer on Buffalo.

Schedule spot

The Los Angeles Lakers have enough issues to start the new NBA season. But the schedule makers couldn’t care less, penciling Los Angeles for four games in five nights to kick off the 2014-15 campaign. The Lakers open the calendar against the Rockets Tuesday, then travel to Phoenix Wednesday, back to L.A. to face the Clippers Friday, and finally go to Golden State Saturday night.

Los Angeles doesn’t have much around Kobe Bryant, whose health will definitely be an issue in the early going. The team could limit his minutes in the opening slate of games or just choose to rest him here and there. On top of that, players are nowhere near in shape this early in the season. So, even if Kobe is fresh, his teammates will likely be dragging their Nikes after trying to make up for his lost minutes. Keep an eye on Saturday’s odds in Golden State.