Dolphins, Pats hook up
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-3) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-0)
New England -8, Total: 51.5
Since a humiliating 27-14 loss to the Jets in London on Oct. 4 that cost head coach Joe Philbin his job, Miami (3-3 ATS) has played inspired football under interim head coach Dan Campbell with a pair of blowout wins at Tennessee (38-10) and versus Houston (44-26) last week. New England (3-1-2 ATS) has won all six of its games by at least seven points, including a 30-23 victory over the division rival Jets last week.
The home team has prevailed in five straight meetings in this series (SU and ATS) and the Dolphins have suffered six straight losses (2-4 ATS) in Foxboro, including a 41-13 shellacking from the Patriots last season. Most of the betting trends expect another New England win and cover, such as its 11-2 ATS record since the start of last season when coming off a game where 50+ points were scored and Bill Belichick's 32-16 ATS mark versus teams averaging 6+ yards per play as the team's head coach. But Miami is 39-23 ATS on the road after a 2-1 ATS stretch since 1992, and is 8-2 ATS versus excellent passing teams (260+ YPG) over the past three seasons.
With the short week, both teams have some injury concerns with two Dolphins defenders questionable in DT A.J. Francis (back) and CB Bobby McCain (knee) and four key Patriots donning the similar questionable tag in top RB Dion Lewis (abdominal), LB Jabaal Sheard (ankle),OT Marcus Cannon (toe) and OL Shaquille Mason (knee).
The one clear edge Miami has in this game is its rushing attack, as the club averages 118 YPG on 5.3 YPC, compared to New England's 84 YPG on 3.9 YPC. In the past two weeks, the Dolphins have run for 428 yards on 67 carries (6.4 YPC). Fourth-year RB Lamar Miller (419 rush yds, 6.0 YPC, 2 TD) is coming off a monster afternoon against Houston where he rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries (12.5 YPC) while adding 61 receiving yards and another score. Miller did not play well in Foxboro last year with 47 yards on 16 carries (2.9 YPC), but he did pile up 78 yards and a touchdown when Miami defeated the Patriots at home in 2014.
QB Ryan Tannehill is also coming off a huge performance against Houston when he completed 18-of-19 throws for 282 yards (14.8 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT. That gives him 271 passing YPG, 13 TD and 7 INT for the season. The fourth-year pro is 2-4 in his career in this series, where he has completed only 57% of his throws for 242 YPG, 8 TD and 6 INT.
The Miami defense has actually played better on the road (17.5 PPG allowed) than at home (22.8 PPG allowed), but it is still allowing too many first downs (21.5 per game) leading to a 32:13 average time of possession. While the passing defense is surrendering 240 YPG on 6.8 YPA, the run-stop unit hasn't been much better with opponents rushing for 129 YPG on 4.1 YPC. But after forcing only one turnover during a three-game losing skid, the Dolphins have five takeaways during their two-game win surge. However, they are facing a franchise that rarely makes mistakes with just three giveaways all season, including one in the past four games combined.
New England has scored at least 28 points in all six games this season, averaging 35.5 PPG on 411 total YPG. But most of this production has been due to the stellar play of QB Tom Brady through the air, as the ground game has only 3.9 YPC (3.4 YPC at home) and is coming off a 9-carry, 16-yard showing against the Jets. Brady has been nearly perfect in 2015, completing 69% of his throws for 342 YPG (8.2 YPA), 16 TD and just 1 INT. He's also had his share of success against the Dolphins with a 16-6 record, 236 passing YPG, 41 TD and 18 INT. During his team's five-game home win streak versus Miami, Brady has thrown for 238 YPG, eight touchdowns and only two picks.
In 2015, he has thrown TD passes to seven different receivers with TE Rob Gronkowski (533 rec yds, 6 TD) and WR Julian Edelman (503 rec yds, 4 TD) already more than halfway to 1,000 yards in just six games. In the blowout win versus Miami last season, the duo combined for 10 catches and 184 yards and each scored a touchdown.
The Patriots defense has given up a bunch of yards (359 total YPG), but has allowed only 21.0 PPG. The run-stop unit needs to improve its 4.5 YPC allowed, and the secondary has to trim its 248 YPG on 63% completions and 6.5 YPA. New England has done a decent job in forcing mistakes with eight takeaways so far this season, and has a powerful enough pass rush (21 sacks) to be able to pressure Tannehill, who has been sacked 16 times this season.
