Thursday 10/23/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

QB Kelly expected to start for Arizona State
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly, who missed the past three games with a foot injury, is expected to return to the starting lineup for the Sun Devils next game against Washington on Saturday, Arizona State coach Todd Graham said Monday.

Kelly has not played since suffering the injury in the Sept. 13 victory over Colorado.

Backup Mike Bercovici finished that game and started the next three. The Sun Devils were 2-1 in the games Bercovici started, losing to UCLA, but then beating USC and Stanford in a difficult three-game stretch.

Bercovici has completed 62.2 percent of his passes with 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also threw the Hail Mary pass that beat USC on the final play of the game.

Despite Bercovici's recent success, Graham has said all along that Kelly would regain the starting job when he was healthy enough to play. Kelly is more mobile than Bercovici and gives the Sun Devils a running threat that Bercovici doesn't.

For the season, Kelly has completed 42-of-68 passes for 625 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing 19 times for 168 yards and two more scores.

The 14th-ranked Sun Devils are 5-1, including 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, while Washington is 5-2 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12 North.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Clemson's leading rusher out for season
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Clemson freshman running back Adam Choice, the team's leading rusher, suffered a torn ACL in Saturday's game against Boston College and will miss the rest of the season, coach Dabo Swinney said Monday.

Choice is expected to have surgery within a few weeks and should be ready to play at the start of the 2015 season.

He ends his season with 218 rushing yards.

The 21st-ranked Tigers (5-2, 4-1 ACC) will also be without tight end Jordan Leggett for several weeks after he suffered a knee injury in Saturday's game.

On the positive side, running back Dyshon Dye, who has not played this season after tearing his Achilles tendon last February, is expected to practice this week and could play Saturday. Dye redshirted the 2013 season because of a back injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: LSU faces statement game vs. Ole Miss
By COLIN KELLY

Mississippi at Louisiana State (+3)

Unbeaten Mississippi is ranked No. 3 in the country heading into Week 9 of the college football season, with a 7-0 SU record. More important for bettors backing the Rebels, though, is that they are ranked No. 2 against the spread, having yet to lose to the oddsmakers, with a 6-0-1 ATS record.

Keeping both those streaks intact won’t come easy in a Southeastern Conference that’s been eating its own all season. Ole Miss hopes to keep its championship hopes alive when it travels to the bayou this week to face Louisiana State (6-2 SU and ATS).

The Rebels rolled Tennessee 34-3 to easily cash as a 16-point home chalk Saturday, while LSU is coming off a 41-3 home trouncing of Kentucky laying 11.5 points.

“Tennessee was a very real overlook spot for the Rebs, and they played a complete game,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “I’d say this is the best team in the country, but I still don’t trust their quarterback (Bo Wallace).

“And just when everyone was ready to write off LSU, they come back with a big win. They could make a major statement here.”

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+18.5)

These Pac-12 rivals square off in a Friday night game, with No. 7 Oregon (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) continuing its quest to try to get back into the four-team playoff picture. Since their stunning 31-24 home loss to Arizona, the Ducks rolled over UCLA 42-30 giving 1.5 points on the road, then thumped Washington 45-20 as a 21-point home fave.

After going 4-1 SU and ATS in its first five games, California (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) has dropped two in a row, but the Golden Bears gave UCLA all it could handle Saturday before losing 36-34 as a 6.5-point home underdog.

“We’ve seen a massive uptick from the Ducks' offense since their left tackle (Jake Fisher) returned. Marcus Mariota remained relatively clean against a pretty good pass-rushing team Saturday,” Lester said. “Cal is so one-dimensional offensively and bad defensively, I don’t know if they can keep up.

Southern California Trojans at Utah Utes (+1)

No. 19 Utah (5-1 SU and ATS) is just a few minutes away from a perfect record this season, with its only loss coming on a late TD in a 28-27 setback at Washington State. The Utes have been a big surprise, beating Michigan at the Big House – though the Wolverines are awful – and following their lone loss with a 30-28 upset at UCLA and a 29-23 overtime win at Oregon State last Thursday giving 1.5 points.

No. 21 Southern Cal (5-2 SU and ATS) has also won its last two SU and ATS, pummeling visiting Colorado 56-28 on Saturday as a 19.5-point fave.

“We expect to see a lot of groundwork between these two teams,” Lester said. “The Utes have been fantastic for their backers this year, but USC is a very public team, so we had to be wary of those factors when setting the line.”

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-17)

You can’t say much good about Michigan (3-4 SU and ATS), but Michigan State (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is another story. The fifth-ranked Spartans’ lone loss came at Oregon in a game they were in through three quarters before getting flattened late 46-27 as a 14-point road pup in Week 2.

Since then, they’ve won five in a row SU (3-2 ATS), including a 56-17 road beatdown of Indiana on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite. Michigan is coming off a bye, after fending off Penn State 18-13 as a 2.5-point chalk to end a three-game SU slide.

“I’m not so sure Mark Dantonio doesn’t have one of the top four teams in the nation. The Spartans are impressive, and they finished a game decisively this week (at Indiana),” Lester said. “I don’t have much to say about this one. Michigan is garbage, and in a rivalry situation, this could get ugly.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Line Watch: Bettors should jump on Marshall now
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Marshall -28 vs. Florida Atlantic

Marshall opened as a 26-point home favorite over Florida Atlantic, and the line quickly moved up to -28. The Thundering Herd are a perfect 7-0 SU on the season, and they need all the style points they can in order for a remote shot at getting into the 4-team playoff discussion.

Florida Atlantic has been awful on the road this season. The Owls are 0-4 SU with three of their losses coming by 48, 41, and 28 point margins. Marshall has a potent offense that is averaging 47.4 points per game on an incredible 7.8 yards per play this year. Knowing they need to win by big margins, laying the 28 points now with Marshall would be a prudent move by bettors.


Spread to wait on

Tennessee +17 (vs. Alabama)

This line came out with Alabama as a 16-point road favorite at Tennessee, and most sports books have already moved this game up to -17/-17.5 after early money came in on the Crimson Tide. This line will likely go higher once the public gets involved.

Alabama comes in off a 59-0 win over Texas A&M while Tennessee enters off a 34-3 blowout loss as 16-point underdogs at Mississippi. Both teams played the Rebels and lost, yet Alabama is laying more points into the Vols despite playing on the road. The value will be on the home dog in this game, especially closer to kick off.


Total to watch

Vanderbilt at Missouri

Vanderbilt and Missouri have two of the worst offenses in the country this season. The Commodores are only averaging 17.6 points per game on just 4.7 yards per play. The Tigers are only averaging 5.1 yards per play despite scoring 30.7 points per game. Those numbers are not in line with each other, and represent Missouri’s fortune of scoring on short drives, defense, and special teams.

Both teams also possess decent enough defenses to stifle the opposing offense. Vanderbilt is allowing 5.7 yards per play versus offenses averaging 6.0 yards per play. Missouri has even better numbers, allowing 4.7 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.9 yards per play. If this total comes out at 45 or higher, there will be value with the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, October 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UCONN at EAST CAROLINA...
Diaco UConn debut not exactly going to plan, Huskies 1-5 SU and 0-6 vs. line. Huskies 3-11 last 14 as road dog (0-2 TY). ECU on 8-3 spread uptick (though 0-2 L 2), 5-6 as DD chalk since LY.

ECU, based on UConn negatives.


MIAMI-FLA. at VIRGINIA TECH...
Beamer 3-4 vs. line TY, 15-31-1 last 47 vs. line.

Slight to VPI, based on series trends.



Friday, October 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...
The road team is 6-0 vs. line in USA games this season.

Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI...
USF 6-1 vs. line as visitor for Taggart, whose WKU & Bull teams are 17-1 vs. spread last 18 as a visitor! Tuberville 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on board.

USF, based on team trends.


BYU at BOISE STATE...
Bronco Mendenhall 8-3 last 11 as dog (0-1 TY). Cougs have covered last two years vs. Boise, though BYU no covers last five in 2014.

Slight to BYU, based on series trends.


OREGON at CAL (at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara)...
Ducks have not lost SU to Cal since 2008 and have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.

Slight to Oregon, based on series trends.



Saturday, October 25

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH CAROLINA at AUBURN...
Malzahn 1-3 vs. line last four TY but still 14-3 vs. spread last 17 on board. Tigers 8-1 vs. points last nine at Jordan-Hare. Spurrier no covers last three in series (two in 2010). Spurrier 5-3 last 8 as dog but only 1-5 vs. line first six overall in 2014.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...
NIU 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line last six vs. EMU. Huskies, however, no covers last four TY and just 3-7 last ten on board. But NIU is 10-2 as visiting chalk since 2012and EMU just 10-19 last 29 as Ypsilanti dog (1-0 TY).

NIU, based on series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...
Dan Mullen is 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line against Kentucky. MSU now on 9-1 spread uptick last 10 since late 2013 and has covered last five away from Starkville.

MSU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at CLEMSON...
Dabo 5-1 vs. line last six at home, but Orange 8-4 last 12 vs. line away from home.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...
Gophers 10-4 vs. spread last 14 on board since mid 2013. Kill 5-2 vs. line last seven as visitor (1-0 as visiting chalk since LY). Beckman 1-4 vs. line last five TY.

Minnesota, based on team trends.


AKRON at BALL STATE...
Cards are 3-1 vs. line as road dog but here in Muncie, Lembo is 0-3 vs. line this season.

Akron, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...
CMU covers last 4 as road chalk. UB has covered last five as MAC host.

Slight to CMU, based on team trends.


OHIO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...
While WMU soars to 7-0 spread mark out of gate this season, Solich fades and only 1-5 vs. points last six in 2014. Solich 3-10 vs. line last 13 since late 2013.

WMU, based on recent trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...
Eagles have covered first two away from home TY.

BC, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCF...
Matt Rhule spotless 6-1 as road dog since LY at Temple. Ole 7-2 vs. line on road since LY.

Temple, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...
UNC has won and covered last four in series and now has covered last 2 TY. Cavs 4-9-1 last 14 as Charlottesville chalk.

UNC, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...
Jackets 2-1 vs. line on road TY and won and covered vs. Pitt LY in Atlanta.

Slight to GT, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at WISCONSIN...
Badgers no covers last three and only 1-4 vs. line last five TY. Also 1-4 vs. line last five at Camp Randall. Terps have won last 5 SU as visitor (3-0 TY).

Maryland, based on recent trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...
Dores actually covered two inflated numbers in only road games and have covered five straight away from Nashville. Mizzou only 1-2 laying DD TY.

Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at NAVY...
Mids no covers last four TY (including 51-14 win as -38 vs. VMI) but were 3-1 as home chalk LY. SJSU 4-6 vs. number last ten since late LY.

Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


UNLV at UTAH STATE...
Rebs 1-3 vs. line away TY, now 7-21-1 vs. spread on road for Hauck since 2010 (though 7-6 last 13). After four straight Ls to open season, Utags have covered last 3 and are 9-4 last 13 as Logan chalk (1-2 TY, but close non-cover vs. Wake).

Utah State, based on team trends.


UMASS at TOLEDO...
Mass has spread Ws last four and six of seven. Meanwhile, Rockets 1-5 vs. spread last six in 2014, though they are 6-2 as Glass Bowl chalk since LY.

UMass, based on recent trends.


UCLA at COLORADO...
Bruins 1-6 vs. line TY, CU 4-1 vs. mark last five TY. Buffs 7-2 vs. line in Boulder since Mike M arrived LY. Mike Mac also 8-2 last 10 as home dog with Jose and CU (3-2 with Buffs).

CU, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at NEBRASKA...
Rutgers 11-5 last 15 as dog away from Piscataway, Flood 8-4 in role. 'Gers also 14-6 last 19 as dog overall since 2011 (3-0 TY). Bo Pelini covers last 5 TY and 6-1 in 2014, also 3-1 as home chalk TY after 3-4 mark in role in 2013.

Slight to Nebraska, based on recent Pelini marks.


KENT STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...
Miami-O no covers as chalk since 2011, no surprise with 1-23 SU mark last 24. But Chuck Martin 5-3 vs. line in RedHawk debut. KS 2-5 vs. line TY.

Slight to Miami, based on recent Kent negatives.


UAB at ARKANSAS...
Bielema 2-0 as chalk TY and 3-0 vs. line at Fayetteville, also 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY.

Slight to Arkansas, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at TCU...
Red Raiders 2-9 vs. line last 11 reg.-season games. Though Tech has won and covered last two years vs. Frogs. TCU 6-0 vs. line this season, including 3-0 at Fort Worth.

TCU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at SMU...
Pony-os 0-6 SU and 1-5 vs. line in disastrous 2014, never closer than 21. Tigers 7-4 last 11 vs. spread since LY and all SU wins by 21 or more this season.

Memphis, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at STANFORD...
Tree 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line last four meetings. Beavers no wins or covers last three on Farm. Riley also 0-3 vs. line away TY, though he is 19-7 as visiting dog since 2008.

Slight to Stanford, based on series trends.


ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...
Vols haven't beaten Tide SU since Mike Shula days of 2006. Saban has owned last four years with big wins and covers over Dooley & Butch. Nick no covers last six away from Tuscaloosa (0-3 TY) and just 1-6 last 7 vs. spread since late 2013.

Slight to Bama, based on series trends.


MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...
Spartans have now won and covered 6 straight and 6-0-1 last seven vs. line in series vs. Wolverines. MSU 4-1 as DD chalk TY and 6-3 vs. line last 9 at home.

MSU, based on series trends.


WYOMING at COLORADO STATE...
CSU now 18-6 vs. line last 24 on board. Bohl's Wyo no covers last four TY.

CSU, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at LSU...
Hugh Freeze now 33-11-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss and 7-0 with Rebs this season. LSU 2-0 as rare home dog since 2010 and 5-2 in dog role since 2011.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


ARIZONA at WASHINGTON STATE...
Cougs won +11 at Tucson LY. Leach 8-3 last 11 as dog. Despite lots of hype, Cats only 3-3 vs. line in 2014 and 2-2 last 4 as visiting chalk.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.



SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...
Home team has covered all three meetings since Utes entered Pac in 2011. Utes 5-1 SU and vs. line after win over OSU. Whittingham 4-1 as home dog since 2012. Also 9-5 vs. line last 14 at Salt Lake City.

Utah, based on team and series home trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...
Panthers 12-2 last 14 as DD dog.

Ga State, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at RICE...
Revenge for Rice after loss at Denton LY. UNT not the same in 2014 with 2-5 spread mark and 0-3 away. Rice has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY, and Bailiff 18-9 last 27 on board.

Rice, based on team trends.


LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS...
Tech has covered last three vs. USM, which is 2-9-1 vs. number last 12 at home.

LT, based on team and series trends.


UTEP at UTSA...
UTEP now 2-8 vs. spread on road since 2013 (1-2 TY) for Kugler.

Slight to UTSA, based on UTEP road woes.


FAU at MARSHALL...
Herd is 8-0-1 vs. line at home since LY and 5-0-1 vs. line last six. Owls 12-4 last 16 as road dog.

Marshall, based on home marks.


TEXAS STATE at ULM...
Warhawks only 1-4-1 vs. line TY. ULM 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as host. Road team 5-1 vs. line in Franchione games TY.

Texas State, based on team trends.


ODU at WKU...
WKU only one cover since BGSU opener and 1-4 as home chalk since LY (0-1 TY).

Slight to ODU, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...
Revenge for Gundy after 30-21 upset loss at Holgorsen LY. Gundy 5-2 last seven in revenge. OSU 15-7-1 vs. line last 22 at Stillwater.

OSU, based on team trends.


TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...
Charlie Strong 2-2 as dog TY after 8-1 mark in role last three seasons at 'Ville. Bill Snyder has covered last six in revenge. KSU has covered last four TY and is 13-6 vs. spread last 19 at home.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.


OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...
Bucks have won and covered last two in series (with Urban Meyer) and 4 of last 5 vs. Nittany. OSU 5-1 vs. line TY with four big wins and covers in row. James Franklin 12-7 as dog since 2011 with Vandy and Nittany (1-1 TY).

Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...
Todd Graham just 2-6 as dog since 2012 (1-1 TY). But Sun Devils have won and covered last seven vs. Huskies dating to 2002

ASU, based on series trends.


NEVADA at HAWAII...
Chow 4-0 vs. line at home TY (home team is 7-0 in Hawaii games vs. spread in 2014). But Pack has won last 3 SU vs. UH and has covered 4 of last 5 away from Reno.

Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tigers, Rebels renew rivalry
By Bruce Marshall

TURN BACK THE CLOCK IN BATON ROUGE

Among our favorite exercises each year at TGS are the well-received "Retrospective" pieces we run each summer in conjunction with our college football conference previews. Having been publishing since 1957, we have nearly six decades worth of memories to draw upon and catalog as we deem appropriate, and the "Retrospectives" allow us the opportunity to indulge upon the best of those recollections.

Somewhat coincidentally, the 2014 gridiron revival in the Magnolia State immediately brings to mind some of our earlier days at TGS and an era in which Johnny Vaught's Ole Miss was a constant presence near the top of the polls (as the Rebs are again this season for HC Hugh Freeze). More specifically, Saturday's renewal of hostilities vs. LSU at Baton Rouge recalls one of our favorite "Retrospectives" from this past summer when we highlighted the glory years of the history between the Rebels and the Tigers, a rivalry which once burned as bright or brighter than any in country.

For the uninitiated, Ole Miss-LSU was at one time Auburn-Alabama...and then some. And when both programs suffered bad stretches, it was the echoes of Billy Cannon's Halloween punt return and Archie "Who" that reminded everyone to keep things >uncivil. Ole Miss-LSU has always transcended the games and materialized in the mutual hate between the fans. "Go to hell LSU" and "Geaux to hell Ole Miss" are timeless greetings these supporters have for one another and will undoubtedly be dusted off for the upcoming renewal of the heated rivalry on Saturday.

Remember, between 1958 and 1965, either the Rebs or Tigers were ranked in the Top 10 every time they played. Both were ranked among the nation's top six teams five of the six times they met between 1958 and 1962. Indeed, the late '50s and early '60s were the midst of a short period of time when both LSU and Ole Miss were at the top of the college football universe, a period when Vaught and LSU HC Paul Dietzel were across the sidelines from one another.

How special was Ole Miss-LSU? Pete Finney, longtime sports columnist for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and a friend for more than five decades, began covering LSU football in 1954, and a few years ago was recounting for another article some of his memories about the glory days of the Ole Miss-LSU rivalry. "In the late '50s and early '60s, Ole Miss-LSU was by far the biggest rivalry in southern football and at least as big as anything else in the country," Finney said. "You had great teams, great coaches, great players, and they were both in the hunt for national championships and major bowls."

Much as Jimmy Ott, the longtime host (with Charles Hanagriff) of "Sports Today" on ESPN Radio Baton Rouge, and on whose show we have appeared each Friday for more than a decade, recently recalled when remembering the glory days of Ole Miss and LSU. "Back in those days," Ott told us in the summer, "Ole Miss was kind of like the Dallas Cowboys of college football."

While Ole Miss and LSU evolved into more of a regional than national rivalry over the past 50 years, the "glory era" of Rebs-Tigers effectively stretched fifteen seasons from 1958-72. Our summer SEC "Retrospective" piece detailed almost all of those matchups, including the epic Halloween night thriller at Baton Rouge in 1959 between Dietzel's top-ranked and defending national champ Tigers and Vaught's third-ranked, also unbeaten Rebels.

The 1958-59 LSU teams were among the most colorful of the TGS era, thanks to an idea Dietzel hit upon that changed his fortunes, linked to the enactment of substitution rule changes in 1953 that effectively restored football to a one-platoon game. Coaches attempted to find the best ways around the rules, but no one came up with a more effective method than Dietzel engineered in 1958, when he divided his unfancied Tigers into three units...White, Go, and Chinese Bandits, the latter a second-string defense molded primarily from underclassmen and walk-ons. The Bandits developed a feisty character and generated immense popularity; members of the unit temporarily promoted to the second string "Go" unit in place of injured players asked Dietzel to move them back to the Bandits as soon as possible. Their spirit inspired better play out of LSU's stars, including 1959 Heisman Trophy-winning back Billy Cannon.

It was Cannon who would prove the savior of the 1959 Halloween classic vs. Ole Miss. With LSU trailing 3-0 and barely 10 minutes to play, the Rebs' Jake Gibbs angled a punt away from Cannon so that he could not quite catch it. The ball bounced, but it would neatly carom into Cannon's hands at the LSU 11-yard line. And then Cannon was off on the run of the year, or the century (if you're an LSU fan, that is). Cannon weaved through and then outran the pursuit to score an 89-yard return and the TD of his life. The deafening roar in Tiger Stadium could likely have been heard in Oxford, and would partially drown out the return's final seconds of the celebrated radio call by legendary Tiger play-by-play man J.C. Politz, whose description of "the play" became a hot seller (at least in Louisiana) on "45" vinyl records of the day.

In later years, even Ole Miss HC Vaught would grudgingly acknowledge the greatness of Cannon's punt return. "Outside of the Louisiana Purchase in 1803," said Vaught, "many Cajuns consider Billy Cannon's run the greatest event in state history."

There are several footnotes to Cannon's dramatic punt return that have been mostly forgotten in college football folklore, but examined in-depth within our "Retrospective" piece. There were still ten minutes to play after Cannon's TD, and Ole Miss would use nearly all of that time in a long drive that tested LSU to the core, eventually reaching the Tiger 2 before Reb QB Doug Elmore was stopped by, among others, Cannon (also a DB) to preserve the 7-3 win. But LSU would be knocked from the top of the polls the following week when shocked 14-13 at Tennessee. And eventually there would be a Sugar Bowl rematch vs. Ole Miss, with even more hype and ballyhoo than the epic Halloween showdown. Yet few recall the rematch because the Rebs dominated and got their quick revenge in a 21-0 win. "I can't believe they agreed to play us again," Rebel HC Vaught would say 40 years later. "That was the dumbest thing anybody ever did. No way we were going to lose that game."

Those epic duels from the 1959 season were just part of the tale we told in our "Retrospective" regarding this rivalry. Hopefully, there might be another chapter to add to the rich Ole Miss-LSU tradition after Saturday's renewal at Tiger Stadium.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Miami, FL at Virginia Tech
By Joe Nelson

The ACC Coastal may not be able to produce a national title contender this season, but it has been very competitive group of teams and at this point it is still a seven-team race with every team either 2-1 or 1-2. Miami and Virginia Tech open the college football weekend Thursday night in a matchup of former Big East rivals and while both programs have fallen in national stature in recent seasons, this is still a key game for both teams at a critical juncture in the season.

Match-up: Miami, FL Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies
Venue: Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia
Date: Thursday, October 23, 2014
Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Miami -2.5
Last Meeting: 2013, Virginia Tech (+4.5) 42-24 at Miami

In the early 2000's, the matchup of Miami and Virginia Tech was not only the biggest game of the Big East season, it was a huge game in the national landscape. Neither program has been a national title contender in recent years, but this season reaching the postseason is not even a given with both teams already sitting with three losses including matching 1-2 starts in ACC play. Miami won the first 12 meetings in this series, but starting in 1995 Virginia Tech has won 13 of the last 19 meetings, including eight of the past 11.

While these teams have met consecutively every season since 1992, the last two meetings were both in Miami Gardens as this will be the first trip to Blacksburg for Miami since 2011 and the Hurricanes have not won on the road in this series since 2001. Last season, Miami was 7-1 and ranked #14 in the nation when Virginia Tech visited in early November and it was a game featuring the types of plays on defense and special teams that Frank Beamer’s squads have been known for over the years. The Hokies wound up with 549 yards in the game, but three early touchdowns were setup by Miami miscues on special teams.

This season, the Miami offense has been very productive, posting 426 yards per game on 7.0 yards per play. The running game has been impressive with 5.3 yards per rush, but in the last two losses the Hurricanes were out-gained on the ground by over 200 yards. In all three losses, Miami has had a significant deficit in rushing yards. All three losses for Miami have come on the road as well, as the Hurricanes are 4-0 at home.

The win at Ohio State was a huge early victory for Virginia Tech and that win continues to look stronger as the Buckeyes have stormed through the rest of their schedule. The three losses for the Hokies have come by seven, three, and five points as every game has been close, but the Hokies are 1-4 ATS and 2-3 S/U since beating Ohio State and climbing in the polls with a 2-0 start. Compared with Miami, Virginia Tech has been a much less impressive statistical team, actually out-gained on the season in a yards-per-play basis, posting just 5.1 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense. The Hokies have been stout against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and Virginia Tech has a talented secondary with foes completing just 46 percent of passes against them.

While Logan Thomas was erratic in his career for the Hokies, his replacement this season, junior Michael Brewer, has been just as inconsistent. Brewer has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and last week’s loss to Pittsburgh was the first game all season that he was not picked off at least once. Brewer is yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game and is yet to match the completion percentage he hit in the very first game of the season.

For Miami, the quarterback situation was unclear early in the season, but freshman Brad Kaaya has firmly taken a hold of the job and in the last game for the Hurricanes, he delivered his best performance. In a 55-34 win over Cincinnati, Kaaya completed over 70 percent of his throws with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Kaaya has six interceptions in his three road games this season and playing under the primetime lights in a difficult road venue could be a challenge this week.

While he has never panned out to be the Heisman Trophy contender some thought he could be, Miami running back Duke Johnson is on his way to his best season with 787 rushing yards already, averaging 7.2 yards per rush. Johnson has also been involved in the passing game with 17 catches this season. He has scored a touchdown in six straight games and has had at least 90 rushing yards in every game this season, topping 100 yards in each of the last three games. He will be a key part of the game plan if Miami is able to win this week as the Hurricanes would be wise to not lean too heavily on their young quarterback in this matchup.

While last season’s game was very high scoring, it seems likely that lower numbers are possible this season with both teams hoping to avoid the key mistakes that have doomed them at times this season. Both teams have been difficult to run against, but the running game will likely be at the forefront of both attacks this week with both teams well rested and well prepared for this key conference game. The winner will become a prime contender in the division race while the loser will fall out of the running and be on thin ice to even make a bowl game this season with both teams still facing several difficult games ahead in the November schedule.

Miami Historical Trends: Miami is 10-8 ATS on the road since 2011, going 0-3 S/U and ATS this season. The Hurricanes have covered in eight of the last 12 as a road favorite. Miami is 5-0 S/U and ATS since 2011 when favored by three or fewer points.

Virginia Tech Historical Trends: The Hokies are 18-8 ATS in this series since 1981, including 8-3 ATS at home in this series since 1982. Virginia Tech is 17-6-1 ATS as a home underdog since 1985, including going 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 instances.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: South Alabama Jaguars (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

This week: -13.5 vs. Troy

Troy got just seven points at Appalachian State last week, but the visitors fell 53-14. For those counting, that means they were 32 points away from pushing and 33 away from covering. The Trojans, who are 1-6 overall and have five games remaining under head coach Larry Blakeney (he announced his upcoming retirement earlier this month), turned the ball over four times against the Mountaineers.

That’s not a good recipe for facing an opponent that is second best in the Sun Belt Conference in turnover margin. South Alabama should match up well against Troy in other areas, too. The Jaguars are third in the conference in scoring defense (22.3 ppg) and fourth in rushing defense (168.3 ypg). Troy is 10th in scoring offense (19.6 ppg) and eighth in rushing offense (132.4 ypg).

The line has already moved two points at most sportsbooks, with money coming in on South Alabama.

Team to beware: Ohio Bobcats (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This week: +10 at Western Michigan

Ohio is coming off a 23-20 win over Akron last week, but it still has plenty of issues on its hands. One is a quarterback controversy. Derrius Vick has missed four games with a knee injury but returned to practice on Monday and could play against Western Michigan. J.D. Sprague has filled in, completing less than half of his passes (91 for 188) with 1,107 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. Head coach Frank Solich was entirely non-committal on this week’s starter during his most recent press conference.

Penalties have also been plaguing the Bobcats. Despite getting past Akron, they were flagged 11 times for a whopping 120 yards. They committed an unbelievable 16 penalties for 156 yards in a 31-13 loss to Bowling Green on Oct. 11.

Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and Western Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six overall.

Total team: Utah State Aggies (4-3 SU, 3-4 O/U)

This week: vs. UNLV

Darell Garretson (91 for 135, 1140 yards, eight TDs, three INTs) has been solid in place of former starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who is out for the season with a knee injury, but teams are forcing Utah State to beat them through the air. Feature running back Joe Hill is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry after going for 6.3 as a sophomore and 4.8 as a junior. The Aggies scored only 13 points in last week’s loss to Colorado State while converting a mere two of 12 third downs.

The under is 9-3 in Utah State’s last 12 overall and 6-0 in its last six conference games. The under is also 4-0 in UNLV’s last four overall and 7-2 in its last nine in the Mountain West. Four consecutive contests between the two teams have gone under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

No team pummeling opponents like Marshall
Justin Hartling

The Thundering Herd has been absolutely abusing opponents so far this season. In Marshall's seven games this season, they have outscored opponents by an average of 29.2 ppg, which is tops in the nation.

The Herd have been favored by an average of 22.5 ppg so far this season.

Marshall is currently 28-point home faves against Florida Atlantic.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UConn still looking for first ATS win of season
Justin Hartling

As bad as the UConn Huskies have been on their field, they've been even worse against the spread. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS this season and remain the only team in the nation that has yet to cover a single game.

UConn has failed to cover each of their games by an average of almost nine points per game.

The Huskies are +27.5 against East Carolina Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

One week after benching, Utah back to WIlson
Justin Hartling

One week after Utah decided it was best for them to start Kendal Thompson at quarterback, the team has gone back to Travis Wilson. Thompson started the Utes last game against Oregon State, going 4-for-8 with an interception before being pulled at halftime for Wilson.

In Wilson's five starts this season, he has seven touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Utes will host USC Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michigan State gets starting center back
Justin Hartling

The Michigan State Spartans are going to be getting along their offensive line when they welcome back Jack Allen this week.

Allen, who was elected to the All-Big Ten team last season, injured himself two weeks ago against Purdue and missed last weeks game against Indiana.

MSU hosts in state rival Michigan Saturday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rutgers' D getting torched by QB's, face Armstrong
Stephen Campbell

Rutgers' defense was exposed once again in Week 8 against the Ohio State Buckeyes in a 56-17 blowout, and if they want to turn things around this week versus No. 16 Nebraska, that unit will have to tighten up in a big way.

The Scarlet Knights allowed quarterback J.T. Barrett to amass 368 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns in the rout. The No. 98 ranked defense will hope to have a much better outing against quarterback Tommy Armstrong and the Cornhuskers on Saturday.

Armstrong has thrown for 1546 yards this season while adding 482 yards on the ground.

Nebraska is currently 17.5-point home faves for the contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Illinois' offense heavily relying on big plays
Stephen Campbell

The Illinois Fighting Illini have specialized in one particular area of football this season: making big plays.

The team has tallied 43 plays of 20 or more yards from scrimmage so far this year, which has vaulted them to No. 20 in the nation for 30 plus yard plays.

Illinois hosts No. 24 Minnesota in Week 9 college football action Saturday. The Golden Gophers are presently 6.5-point road favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Longhorns' D still ranked high after shootout
Stephen Campbell

Despite giving up 45 points to Iowa State in a 3-point Week 8 victory, the Texas Longhorns defense is still posting some solid numbers overall this season.

Texas is ranked No. 5 in passing defense and No. 10 in yards allowed per play in the nation. The Longhorns travel to Manhattan for a date with Jake Waters and the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday.

The No. 11 Wildcats are currently 9.5-point home faves for the affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cowboys limiting opponents' red zone opportunities
Stephen Campbell

Through seven games, opposing offenses have reached the red zone 25 times but converted only 10 of those trips into touchdowns against Oklahoma State's defense.

That's good enough to rank second in the Big 12 and No. 12 in the nation. The Cowboys host the West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday.

No. 25 West Virginia is currently listed as 1-point road faves for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Boston College at Wake Forest October 25, 03:30 EST
The Eagles off a 17-13 home loss to Clemson but covering as 5.5 point underdogs hit the field 5-2 ATS on the campaign, 8-3 ATS last eleven within the ACC. Meanwhile, Demon Deacons spanked 30-7 by Syracuse have now lost seven straight (2-4-1 ATS), ten of eleven (3-7-1 ATS) vs conference opponents. Not that you don't have plenty of reason to back Boston College, but be mindful that Eagles are just 1-3 ATS last four as a road favorite, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games, 2-6 ATS the past eight ACC road contests and on an 8-23 ATS skid against a team with a losing record.

Mississippi at Louisiana State October 25, 07:15 EST
Unbeaten Mississippi heads into Week 9 of the college football season with a 7-0 SU record and have yet to lose against the spread posting a 6-0-1 mark. This week Ole Miss puts both streaks on the line in a SEC West tilt when they visit Louisiana State (6-2 SU, ATS). Rebels 4-1 SU/ATS last five road games, 10-3 ATS last thirteen vs LSU and a sparkling 9-0 ATS last nine in Tigers' back yard keep both SU/ATS streaks alive.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

CONNECTICUT (1 - 5) at E CAROLINA (5 - 1) - 10/23/2014, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


MIAMI (4 - 3) at VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 3) - 10/23/2014, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

CONNECTICUT vs. EAST CAROLINA
Connecticut is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of East Carolina's last 7 games at home


MIAMI vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Virginia Tech is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Thurs, Oct. 23

Connecticut at East Carolina, 7:00 ET
Connecticut: 9-1 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
E Carolina: 8-2 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games

Miami Florida at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
Miami: 8-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more points
Virginia Tech: 9-1 ATS as a home underdog



College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Oct. 24

Troy at South Alabama, 7:30 ET
Troy: 6-0 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game
S Alabama: 1-6 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

South Florida at Cincinnati, 7:00 ET
S Florida: 11-2 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better

BYU at Boise State, 9:00 ET
BYU: 19-35 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Boise State: 42-25 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Oregon at California, 10:00 ET
Oregon: 18-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better
California: 10-21 ATS in all games



College Football Betting Trends - Sat, Oct. 25

South Carolina at Auburn, 7:30 ET
S Carolina: 1-5 ATS in all lined games
Auburn: 10-2 ATS against conference opponents

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 ET
N Illinois: 22-8 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game
E Michigan: 9-22 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Mississippi State at Kentukcy, 3:30 ET
Mississippi St: 9-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Kentucky: 2-11 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Syracuse at Clemson, 7:00 ET
Syracuse: 30-16 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game
Clemson: 2-11 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games

Minnesota at Illinois, 12:00 ET
Minnesota: 6-1 UNDER after a 2 game home stand
Illinois: 53-77 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday

Akron at Ball State, 2:00 ET
Akron: 1-5 ATS when playing on a Saturday
Ball State: 1-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

Central Michigan at Buffalo, 3:30 ET
C Michigan: 17-32 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Ohio at Western Michigan, 2:00 ET
Ohio: 0-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival
W Michigan: 6-1 OVER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog

Boston College at Wake Forest, 3:30 ET
Boston College: 1-9 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
Wake Forest: 2-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 3 straight games

Temple at Central Florida, 5:00 ET
Temple: 36-20 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Central Florida: 2-10 ATS off a home win

North Carolina at Virginia, 12:30 ET
N Carolina: 28-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Virginia: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh, 3:30 ET
Georgia Tech: 5-16 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games
Pittsburgh: 20-7 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival

Maryland at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 24-10 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game
Wisconsin: 28-13 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival

Vanderbilt at Missouri, 4:00 ET
Vanderbilt: 19-6 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
Missouri: 15-6 ATS in all lined games

San Jose State at Navy, 1:00 ET
San Jose St: 9-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Navy: 36-55 ATS in home games in non-conference games

UNLV at Utah State, 4:00 ET
UNLV: 18-7 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Utah State: 7-0 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less

Massachusetts at Toledo, 2:00 ET
Massachusetts: 6-1 OVER as an underdog
Toldeo: 21-8 ATS in home games off a road loss

UCLA at Colorado, 2:00 ET
UCLA: 3-12 ATS in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Colorado: 2-10 ATS in weeks 5 through 9

Rutgers at Nebraska, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 11-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Nebraska: 60-40 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Kent State at Miami Ohio, 2:30 ET
Kent State: 9-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Miami Ohio: 18-34 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

UAB at Arkansas, 12:00 ET
UAB: 1-6 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Arkansas: 0-7 ATS after a 2 game home stand

Texas Tech at TCU, 3:30 ET
Texas Tech: 63-40 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
TCU: 17-6 ATS in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Memphis at SMU, 12:00 ET
Memphis: 28-13 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points
SMU: 18-33 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses

Oregon State at Stanford, 3:30 ET
Oregon St: 28-13 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival
Stanford: 77-54 ATS in the second half of the season

Alabama at Tennessee, 7:30 ET
Alabama: 6-0 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Tennessee: 16-30 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9

Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 ET
Michigan: 18-35 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Michigan State: 23-8 ATS after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game

Wyoming at Colorado St, 7:00 ET
Wyoming: 14-3 ATS in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers
Colorado St: 12-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Missisippi at LSU, 7:15 ET
Mississippi: 16-6 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
LSU: 22-40 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game

Arizona at Washington State, 6:00 ET
Arizona: 14-4 ATS in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game
Washington State: 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

USC at Utah, 10:00 ET
USC: 36-19 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Utah: 21-9 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games

Georgia Southern at Georgia State, 2:00 ET
Georgia Southern: 8-1 ATS in all lined games
Georgia St: 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

North Texas at Rice, 12:00 ET
N Texas: 6-23 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers
Rice: 56-23 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Louisiana Tech at Soutern Miss, 3:30 ET
Louisiana Tech: 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Southern Miss: 10-21 ATS in all lined games

UTEP at UTSA, 7:00 ET
UTEP: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog
UTSA: 6-1 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

FLA Atlantic at Marshall, 3:30 ET
FLA Atlantic: 11-3 ATS as a road underdog
Marshall: 15-5 ATS off a double digit road win

Texas St at LA Monroe, 7:00 ET
Texas St: 1-8 ATS against conference opponents
LA Monroe: 4-13 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Old Dominion at W Kentucky, 4:00 ET
Old Dominion: 1-5 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
W Kentucky: 0-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents

W Virginia at Oklahoma St, 3:30 ET
W Virginia: 2-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Oklahoma St: 76-48 ATS as a favorite

Texas at Kansas St, 12:00 ET
Texas: 0-7 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
Kansas St: 77-53 ATS in home games

Ohio St at Penn St, 8:00 ET
Ohio St: 64-40 ATS in road games
Penn St: 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points

Arizona St at Washington, 10:45 ET
Arizona St: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Washington: 1-5 UNDER after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game

Nevada at Hawaii, 12:00 AM ET
Nevada: 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Hawaii: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less