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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Thursday, October 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

FAU at FIU
FIU has covered last three in Shula Bowl, but FAU has covered 20 of its last 26 on board and is 7-2 vs. spread last nine away.

FAU, based on team trends.



UCF at HOUSTON
UCF was 4-0 as dog LY but 0-1 in role in 2014. Cougs 13-6 as home chalk since 2011 (1-1 TY).

Slight to UH, based on extended home chalk marks.


ARIZONA at OREGON
Revenge for Ducks after losing 42-16 at Tucson LY. Ducks had won and covered previous two meetings by 105-31 combined score. Oregon only 2-8 vs. line last ten reg.-season games. But Rodriguez only 2-7 vs. spread last nine in reg. season and 0-3 as road dog LY.

Slight to UA, based on team trends.



Friday, October 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE
Cards just 4-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE
FSU now 6-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. SDSU 8-4 vs. spread last 12 away from Qualcomm.

SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BYU
Ags had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 31-14 loss at Logan . Cougs no covers first two at home TY after 14-8 mark in role previous four seasons. Utags no covers first four on board TY, and just 1-5 as dog for Matt Wells.

Slight to BYU, based on recent trends.



Saturday, October 4

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VANDERBILT at GEORGIA
Dores slaughtered last two in Athens (91-3 combined score). Richt has now won and covered big last three as home chalk after dropping 8 of previous 12 in role.

Georgia, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE
Noles now 0-4 vs. line TY, Wake has covered last three for Clawson. But Noles have won last two vs. Deacs by combined 111-3 score. FSU 4-1 vs. line last five years in series after losing three straight to Grobe 2006-08.

Slight to FSU, based on recent series trends.


MIAMI-FLA. At GEORGIA TECH
This has been a bad matchup lately for GT, which has lost and failed to cover last five years vs. Canes. Jackets 0-2 as home chalk TY.

Miami, based on series trends.


NORTH TEXAS at INDIANA
UNT 13-5 last 18 vs. number, and 7-3 last 10 vs. spread away from Denton. Even after Mizzou win, IU just 6-13 vs. spread last 19 on board, and 3-7 last 10 as home chalk.

UNT, based on team trends.


PURDUE at ILLINOIS
Last three decided by 7 or fewer, and home team has covered each. But Illini 1-2 as home chalk TY and Beckman 4-7 laying points since 2012. Hazell 6-10 vs. line since LY but has split six spread decisions as dog away from home.

Slight to Purdue, based on Illini Beckman chalk woes.


OHIO STATE at MARYLAND
Bucks just 3-6 last 9 on board since late 2013 (though 2-1 TY). Meyer 5-4 as road chalk with Buckeyes. Edsall 6-4 vs. line last 10 at College Park, 6-3 last 8 as dog.

Maryland, based on team trends.


SMU at EAST CAROLINA
Ponies 0-4 SU and vs. line in terrible 2014 break from gate. Ruffin McNeill has covered five straight and 8 of last 9 since late LY, and ECU 8-4 last 12 as home chalk.

ECU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at CINCINNATI
Tigers 3-1 vs. line early in 2014. Justin Fuente also 5-2 last seven as road dog.

Memphis, based on recent trends.


PITT at VIRGINIA
Cavs 5-0 vs. line in 2014, including 4-0 at home. Pitt 1-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.

Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.


OHIO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Solich 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Athens, and 3-11 last 14 vs. number away from Peden Stadium.

Slight to CMU, based on recent Solich road woes.


KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA
Revenge for WVU after losing to Weis LY. Weis just 10-18 vs. line since 2012 with KU, 4-8 as road dog. Mounties 3-1 vs. line TY for Holgorsen.

WVU, based on KU negatives.


TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Broncs surprising 4-0 vs. line in early 2014. Rockets, however, have won and covered big last two vs. WMU, which was 0-4 as home dog in 2013.

Slight to Toledo, based on recent series trends.


MARSHALL at OLD DOMINION
Herd 2-6 last eight as visiting chalk since LY but did win and cover handily at Akron last chance in role. Herd 12-6 last 18 on board.

Marshall, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA
UNC no covers first four TY but Beamer 13-30-2 vs. number since late 2010. If Beamer chalk note 0-6 mark laying points as visitor since 2012. Fedora was 10-4 vs. line at Chapel Hill past two seasons .

UNC, based on extended trends.


KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Flashes no covers first four in 2014, now 5-11 vs. line for Paul Haynes since LY (2-2 as DD dog).

NIU, based on Kent State negatives.


WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN
Pat Fitz 2-12 last 14 on board dating to mid 2013 but off rousing Penn State win. Cats 2-5 last seven as Evanston dog. Badgers 11-6 vs. line for Gary Andersen, whose Utag and Badger teams are 21-9 vs. line since 2012.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.


UMASS at MIAMI-OHIO
RedHawks have lost 21 in a row SU so tough tech argument to make for Miami, though a bit better 4-5-1 vs. line last 10 at Oxford. Mass only 1-16 SU its last 16 and 5-10 as visiting dog since 2012 (1-1 TY).

Slight to Miami, based on Mass negatives.


SOUTH ALABAMA at APP STATE
USA 8-2 vs. spread last eight on road and 12-5 last 17 vs. number away from Mobile.

USA, based on road marks.


SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
Spurrier only 1-4 vs. line early in 2014, and SC 1-4-1 last six as visiting chalk. UK 3-1-1 vs. spread last five in series.

Kentucky, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at ARMY
Ball has won last three and covered last four in series. Lembo 9-3 vs. line last 12 as visitor.

Ball, based on series trends.


BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN
BGSU has won and covered last three meetings, and Falcs now 13-6 last 19 vs. points at home (2-0 TY for Dino).

BGSU, based on series and team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON
EMU 1-3 vs. line TY, now 7-21 vs. spread since 2012, 4-12 last 16 as road dog.

Akron, based on EMU negatives.


TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE
TT now 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games after OSU cover. Snyder has won and covered last three years vs. Red Raiders and is 28-14 vs. spread since 2011.

K-State, based on team and series trends.


HAWAII at RICE
In WAC days, the Kenny Hatfield Owls covered all six meetings from 1999-2004. Rice 15-9-1 last 25 vs. spread at home, Hawaii 5-7 last 12 vs. line on mainland for Norm Chow.

Rice, based on team trends.


TULSA at COLORADO STATE
Tulsa 0-4 vs. line as road dog since 2013. CSU on 16-5 spread run since mid 2012 and 7-2 last 9 as Fort Collins chalk.

CSU, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at UL-LAFAYETTE
GSU 5-1 as road dog since 2013, ULL 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games.

GSU, based on team trends.


STANFORD at NOTRE DAME
If Shaw is a dog note 5-0-1 spread mark in role since 2011. Tree 16-6 vs. spread as visitor since 2010.

Stanford, especially if dog, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL
ASU put 62 on SC in 2013, tying most-ever points allowed by Trojans (which was 62 previous year vs. Oregon). Graham ran up 53-24 score on Sark's UW last year, too. But Sun Devils just 1-6 as dog under Graham, and Trojans 10-6 as Coliseum chalk since 2011.

SC, based on team trends.


LSU at AUBURN
Auburn has covered the last two meetings at Jordan-Hare, and Malzahn 13-2 last 15 vs. spread. Les Miles 4-2 last six as dog.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NAVY at AIR FORCE
Mids 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 last 11 vs. line in series. Navy 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from Annapolis and 12-6 overall vs. number since 2013. Force 1-4 as home dog since LY.

Navy, based on series trends.


OKLAHOMA at TCU...
TCU had been 5-12 vs. line as host past three seasons before opening two wins TY. OU has now covered five straight away from Norman.

OU, based on recent Sooner road mark.


FLORIDA at TENNESSEE
If Vols chalk note 3-9 mark at home in role since 2012 (2-4 for Butch). But Muschamp 2-5 vs. line last seven away from home.

UT, based on recent Gator road mark.


BAYLOR at TEXAS
Briles 29-13 overall vs. line since 2011. Bears just 5-10 vs. mark as visitor that span, but have covered last 4 vs. Texas. Charlie Strong teams 9-1 as dog since 2011.

Baylor, based on team and series trends.


IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE
OSU has won and covered handily the past two seasons vs. ISU since the big Cyclone upset in 2011. Cowboys 1-2 as home chalk TY after Texas Tech but were 23-9 in role since 2008 in role entering this season.

OSU, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at OLE MISS
Road team had covered five straight in series prior to LY's Bama 25-0 win. Hugh Freeze 7-4 as dog with Rebs and he is now 31-11 vs. spread since 2011 with Ark State and Rebs. Nick just 1-5 last six as chalk away from home.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Bulldogs now 8-1 vs. line last 9 on board since late 2013. MSU 14-8 vs. line at Starkville since 2011. Ags were 0-4 vs. spread as visitor in 2013.

MSU, based on recent trends.


UTAH at UCLA
Bruins 0-1 vs. line at home TY but 41-22 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since early 2004.

UCLA, based on extended home trends.


UTEP at LA TECH
Skip 4-1 v. line in 2014. UTEP lost at home to Skip LY and is 0-7 as visiting dog since 2013.

La Tech, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at MTSU
USM 4-11 as road dog since 2012 (3-6 for Monken since LY). MTSU now 4-1 vs. line TY after ODU win and 8-4 since 2012 vs. line at Murfreesboro.

MTSU, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at COLORADO
OSU 1-3 as visiting chalk since since 2012. CU 6-2 vs. spread at Boulder since LY for MacIntyre (2-0 TY).

Slight to Colorado, based on team trends.


CAL at WASHINGTON STATE
Cougs had lost 8 in a row SU vs. Bears prior to 44-22 win LY at Berkeley. Wazzu 4-0 as Pullman chalk since 2013. Leach 13-6 last 19 on board since late 2012.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at TEXAS STATE
Vandals have covered first two away TY (road team 4-0 vs. spread in Idaho games TY).

Slight to Idaho, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS
Rutgers 3-6 last 9 as chalk. But Brady Hoke 2-5 as road dog since 2012, 3-7-1 as dog same span.

Rutgers, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at UTSA
Davie 0-4 vs. line TY after Fresno loss and now 7-14 against line last 21 on board since mid 2012. Lobos, however, were 4-2 as road dog LY.

UTSA, based on team trends.


ULM at ARKANSAS STATE
Ark State has won and covered last four meetings.

Ark State, based on series trends.


NC STATE at CLEMSON
Pack has covered last four meetings though won only one of those outright. Clemson, however, 6-2 last eight as ACC home chalk. Pack has covered last three on board after dropping seven straight vs. line for Doeren.

NCS, based on series trends.


UAB at WESTERN KENTUCKY
Blazers 1-5 as away dog LY but 1-0 in role for new HC Clark in 2014.

WKU, based on extended team trends.


NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN STATE
Road team has won and covered last two years in series. Bo Pelini 3-1 as dog LY and has covered 5 of last six away from Lincoln.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at NEW MEXICO STATE
GSU a revelation now 5-0 vs. line this season after App State win!

GSU, based on current trends.


UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE
Rebs now 8-21 vs. spread away since late 2009.

SJSU, based on UNLV road woes.


BOISE STATE at NEVADA
Nevada has covered last five and 6 of last 7 vs. Boise. Pack has also covered last four and five of last six as dog since late 2013, and 6-1 as home dog since 2010.

Slight to Nevada, based on series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

FLA ATLANTIC (2 - 3) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (2 - 3) - 10/2/2014, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/2/2014, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (4 - 0) at OREGON (4 - 0) - 10/2/2014, 10:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
OREGON is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Trends

FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida Atlantic is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Florida Atlantic is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Florida International is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Florida International's last 13 games

CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. HOUSTON
Central Florida is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Florida's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

ARIZONA vs. OREGON
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Oregon is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Florida Atlantic at Florida International
Florida ATL: 11-3 ATS after playing a conference game
Florida INT: 19-35 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Central Florida at Houston
C Florida: 32-15 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Houston: 10-2 ATS in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite

Arizona at Oregon
Arizona: 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins
Oregon: 67-45 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers

 

[Bobbyhill]

Alright guys like i said before its really simple all we really need is CHRIS JAMES SPORTS one pick one win look at his record nobody compares!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 5
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...
Vikes "over" 13-7 since LY. Pack 0-6-1 last 7 vs. number at Lambeau (much without Rodgers LY, however). Slight to Vikings, based on extended Packer spread woes.


Sunday, Oct. 5

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CHICAGO at CAROLINA..
Bears have won and covered first two as dog on road this season. Chicago also "over" 7-1 last seven since late 2013. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends

CLEVELAND at TENNESSEE...
Titans no covers and outscored 100-34 last three after opening win over KC. Browns "over" 3-0 TY. "Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

ST. LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA...
Eagles "over" 5-2-1 last eight reg.-season games. Rams 1-0 as road dog TY, in fact road team 3-0 vs. line in Ram games this season. Fisher 2-6 in role LY but was 7-1 getting points away in 2012. Slight to "over" and Rams, based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at NY GIANTS...
G-Men have recovered quick with two SU wins and covers in a row. NYG also "over" 3-1 TY. Falcs 4-9-1 vs. spread last 14 away. Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...
Saints now 18-0 SU and 17-0-1 vs. line at Superdome since 2011 with Sean Payton on sidelines. Saints have also covered 4 of last 5 in series. Saints, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at DALLAS...
Jerry Jones 6-15 vs. line last 21 in Arlington. Texans, based on extended Dallas home negatives..
at BUFFALO at DETROIT...Lions 7-3 vs. spread as host since 2013. Bills 2-10 last 12 as dog away from home. Lions, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...
Ravens 8-3 last 11 overall as dog. Indy 6-6 last 12 as Lucas Oil chalk. Ravens, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE...
Jags 0-4 SU and vs. line, also "over" 9-3-1 last 13 since mid 2013. Steel just 3-8 as road chalk since 2011 "Over" and slight to Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at DENVER...
Broncos now 0-3 vs. line TY, also "under" 2-0-1 after long-running "over" trends prior. Cards "under" 3-0 TY and 6-2 "under" last 8 since late 2013. "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN FRANCISCO...
49ers "under" 11-4 last 15 since mid 2013. Andy Reid 9-1 vs. line away in reg.-season games with Chiefs. Chiefs and "under," based on team trends.

NY JETS at SAN DIEGO...
Bolts 8-2 vs. spread last ten since late 2013. But Rexy 7-3 as dog since LY, and underdog is 3-0 in Jets games TY. Slight to Jets, based on recent Rex dog mark.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND...
Bengals 11-2 vs. line last 13 away in reg.-season games. Patriots 1-4 vs. line last five since late 2013. Bengals, based on recent trends.


Monday, Oct. 6

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON...
Skins 3-9 vs. line last 12 since mid 2013 (1-3 for Jay Gruden). Seahawks 26-12-2 vs. spread overall since 2012. Seahawks, based on Redskins negatives.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Trends to Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence

The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 5
By Marc Lawrence

Week Five of the 2014 NFL season is here and with it only two teams remain undefeated – Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom avoided the grim reaper with Bye Weeks.

As we do each week, let’s take a deeper look inside the stats and analyze the numbers to date.

Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Sept. 29 unless noted otherwise.

By Land or by Air

With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.

Best Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Washington State 481
2. Western Kentucky 462
3. West Virginia 402

Worst Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Eastern Michigan 83
2. New Mexico 90
3. Navy 91

Best Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wisconsin 402
2. Nebraska 395
3. Navy 358

Worst Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wake Forest 13
2. SMU 44
3. Kent State 44

Looking Inside the Stats

As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. To re-iterate, gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.

Here are the phony teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Air Force, BYU, and Nevada.
-- NFL: Green Bay Packers.

These are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

-- College Football: Boise State and San Jose State.
-- NFL: Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams.

FYI: there is one game on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win: Boise State vs. Nevada.

Who’s Hot And Who’s Not

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

-- Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a loss of eight or more points, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS if his squad’s win percentage is .400 or greater.

-- The Chicago Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS in games in which they have been out-gained this season. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS in games in which they have out-gained their opponents.

-- Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog versus opponents off back-to-back losses by an average loss of 15 points per game.

-- Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 18-6 SU and ATS In his NFL career in games off a win when facing a non-division opponent, including 6-0 ATS during the first four games of the season.

-- The Detroit Lions held their first three opponents to season low yards this campaign. They held the New York Jets to a 2nd low yardage mark last week.

-- St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 91-62-1 ATS as an underdog. He has faced Philadelphia only once in his NFL career, defeating the Eagles 31-13 as a 13-point underdog in 2006.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 0-5 SU and ATS in his last five games versus winless opponents.

 

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NFC North heats up

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

Line and Total: Green Bay -9, Total: 47

Division rivals clash on Thursday night when the Vikings visit the Packers.

Minnesota comes into this one having beaten Green Bay just once in the nine meetings between these teams since the start of the 2010 season. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS at Lambeau Field during that span, the lone ATS win coming in a 26-26 tie last November while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was out with an injury.

While Green Bay has averaged 32 points in its past nine meetings in this series, Minnesota has averaged fewer than 20. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is questionable after having thrown for 317 yards in his first NFL start Sunday, a 41-28 win over Atlanta. He was carted to the locker room with a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter, and will likely be a game-time decision. If Bridgewater can't play, Christian Ponder will start under center.

The Packers are one of only five NFL teams averaging fewer than 320 total yards per game in 2014, but they’ve faced top-6 defenses in three of their first four games. Mike McCarthy is 35-17 ATS versus division opponents as the coach of the Packers. He is, however, just 13-23 ATS versus defenses that allow at least seven passing yards per attempt with the team.

Two of the past three games played between these two teams in Green Bay have gone Under the total.

In addition to Bridgewater, the Vikings could be without top LB Chad Greenway (ribs) for a second straight week. The most notable injuries for the Packers are LBs Clay Matthews (hamstring) and Brad Jones (thigh), who are both listed as questionable.

The Vikings have been very up-and-down to start the year scoring 75 points in two wins, but only 16 points in two defeats. But their offense has not looked better than it did in Week 4 against the Falcons. Minnesota’s running back duo of Matt Asiata (159 rush yards, 3.4 YPC, 3 TD) and Jerick McKinnon (142 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 0 TD) combined for 241 yards on the ground against Atlanta. They’ll lean on the running game again, as the Packers are allowing an NFL-worst 176.0 rushing yards per game.

QB Teddy Bridgewater (467 pass yards, 9.3 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT) was sharp in his first career start, going 19-of-30 for 317 yards with no turnovers. He added 27 yards and a touchdown on the ground for his team. Bridgewater makes high-percentage passes and is a quick decision maker. That should help him against a ball hawking Green Bay secondary that picked Jay Cutler off twice in Week 4.

Minnesota ranks ninth in the NFL in scoring defense (21.0 PPG allowed), but ranks 17th in total defense (354 YPG) and is tied for 30th in third downs (50%). Despite what happened against Atlanta, this is not the type of team to win a shootout, so the Vikings will need to control the clock against a potent Green Bay offense.

Aaron Rodgers (999 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 9 TD, 1 INT) told Packers fans to relax before their Week 4 meeting with the Bears, and that is exactly what they’ll do after Rodgers threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 38-17 road victory. WRs Jordy Nelson (33 rec, 459 yards, 3 TD) and Randall Cobb (21 rec, 239 yards, 5 TD) combined for 17 catches, 221 yards and four touchdowns in the game.

This air attack should find success against a Minnesota defense that allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt (20th in NFL), and Rodgers has dominated this team since 2010, going 7-1 with 2,391 passing yards (299 YPG), 21 TD and 3 INT. RB Eddie Lacy (161 rush yards, 3.0 YPC, 1 TD) rushed 17 times for 48 yards and a touchdown in the victory over Chicago, but he needs to run much better for his team to be successful. That should happen against a Minnesota team Lacy piled up 270 total yards and 2 TD against over the two meetings last year. The Vikings’ rush defense is allowing 113.3 yards per game (T-15th in NFL).

Green Bay’s defense, however, will likely be flying all over the field trying to confuse Teddy Bridgewater. They’ll apply pressure whenever they can in order to create turnover opportunities in their secondary. Both teams have protected the football well this season, as Minnesota has three turnover-free games, while Green Bay has not had more than one giveaway in a game this year.

 

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Slick field could plague Vikings' Bridgewater and injured ankle
By JASON LOGAN

The forecast in Green Bay is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain for Thursday’s game between the hometown Packers and the rival Minnesota Vikings.

While a little wetness won’t force sportsbooks to adjust their odds, bettors looking for an edge when capping the weather need to look no further than Minnesota rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater and his tender left ankle.

The slick field conditions could put an extra strain on Bridgewater’s ankle, something sportsbooks haven’t overlooked as Thursday draws closer, setting the Vikings as 9-point underdogs.

“Bridgewater is still bothered by that ankle,” says Scott Kaminsky. “(The poor conditions are) going to make it even more difficult on that sprained ankle, and his plant foot could easily give out because of the rain.”

Bridgewater, who passed for 317 yards and scrambled for 27 more gains and a touchdown in his first career start against Atlanta last Sunday, suffered the injury late in the fourth quarter in Week 4 and has a short week to recover before traveling to Wisconsin Thursday. Bridgewater remains optimistic but did sit out practice Monday and Tuesday.

“If he doesn’t play, this game goes up to 10 or 10.5,” says Kaminsky. “You’re bringing in (Christian) Ponder. If (Bridgewater) does play, there’s a good chance the ankle goes with all the sliding around and then you’re stuck with Ponder.”

Kaminsky says that while most books are dealing this game between 8.5 and nine, sharp bettors are buying points on the Packers and taking Green Bay -10 and -10.5.

"Teasers are mounting on Green Bay. That could be an issue."

The total for Thursday’s game is set at 47.5 points. The Packers and Vikings are 20-8-1 Over/Under in their previous 29 head-to-head meetings.

 

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What the heck happened to the NFC South?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Considered by many to be one of the NFL’s premier divisions back in August, the NFC South has been a flaming train wreck of disappointment and unmet expectations through the first four weeks of the season.

Not one of the division’s four teams boasts a winning record as we approach the start of October, with all four currently listed at 20/1 or worse to win Super Bowl XLIX at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

To put that into perspective, the NFC West currently boasts three squads with Super Bowl odds of 20/1 or better.

But amidst the less-than-stellar start reside multiple patterns of predictability that sports bettors can utilize during their weekly handicapping sessions. And remember, while the NFC South may be a combined 6-10 SU and ATS so far in 2014, this same division was 6-9 both SU and ATS at the quarter pole last year.

New Orleans Saints (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

New year, same old story. The Saints are more than capable of handling the job when playing within the comfy confines of the Superdome, but this team is a sluggish nightmare when asked to hit the road. Currently 1-3 on the season, the Saints are 1-0 both SU and ATS in New Orleans, but 0-3 SU and ATS outside the city.

From 2010 through Week 4 of the current campaign, the Saints are now a rock solid 24-9 (.727) at home, yet an abysmal 12-23 (.342) on the road. Amazingly, head coach Sean Payton has yet to figure out a way to solve this issue.

This week: vs. Tampa Bay (-10)

Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

All sizzle, no steak. The Falcons love the indoor confines of the Georgia Dome, where they’ve been free to scorch a couple of the league’s worst defenses en route to a 2-0 SU and ATS record while recording a staggering 93 points and 1,056 total yards of offense.

But send Mike Smith’s crew outdoors and you’ll witness a stunning turnaround in both execution and production. Including the 2014 season, the Falcons are now 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS when playing outside.

This week: at New York Giants (+4)

Carolina Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Predicted by many to suffer a regression this season, the Panthers are well on their way to fulfilling those prophecies. After a 2-0 start which saw the defending NFC South champs dismantle Tampa Bay and Detroit, the Panthers have plummeted back to earth to rack up a total of just 29 points with three turnovers in back-to-back losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, respectively.

The problem for Carolina is that dual-threat quarterback Cam Newton has been unable to find success running the ball due to a preseason rib injury that has forced the coaching staff to shy away from calling the zone read plays that have been a staple of the Panthers’ offense since Newton arrived. Note that Carolina is 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when Newton carries the ball at least seven times in a game, but just 4-6 both SU and ATS during the same time period when the quarterback fails to hit that mark.

This week: vs. Chicago (-2.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS

The Buccaneers have posted only one winning season over the last five years (2010) and are just 16-36 (.307) SU since 2011. So why would we ever consider backing this team when they’re posted as a favorite?

Going back to the start of the 2013 season, Tampa Bay is a respectable 9-5 against the number when assuming the role of the underdog, but a miserable 1-5 when listed as a favorite. If bad teams struggle to win football games, the chances of them both winning and covering as a favorite are slim to none. And judging by how the Buccaneers have so far handled the favorite role this season (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS), it’s safe to say that slim just left town.

This week: at New Orleans (+10)

 

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Packers' Matthews impressed by Vikings no-name runners
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews, who has been dealing with a groin injury, is probable for Thursday night's visit from the Minnesota Vikings.

He took part in practice on a part time basis Tuesday and Wednesday after taking part in 60 percent of the defensive plays in the Packers' 38-17 win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

Of course Matthews says he is certain he will play and start against Minnesota. However, he is less sure of exactly who the running backs are for the Vikings now that Adrian Peterson is not playing.

Last Sunday, Minnesota's Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata combined for 241 yards rushing against the Atlanta Falcons, which Matthews definitely saw in game tapes.

"We haven't heard much as far as who their running backs are for years now, outside of Adrian Peterson," Matthews said. "But now they've got ... they've got that one guy who can run really hard, ran for over 100 yards. And the little guy, he was really quick, too."

The hard runner would be McKinnon, the quick little guy is Asiata and, despite being unable to recite their names, Matthews is respectful of their abilities.

"They put up some running yards last week, and that's what I mean," he said. "You think with the drop-off of A.P., or that there would be a drop-off, but there really isn't. We're going to have our hands full, especially with what we put on film last week, this past weekend. They've got to be coming in here thinking that they're going to run it on us. It's just a great opportunity for us to showcase that that's not the case."

The Packers had some offensive success of their own last weekend, resulting in quarterback Aaron Rodgers being named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Rodgers completed 22 of 28 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions for a near-perfect passer rating of 151.2.

He also surpassed 25,000 passing yards for his career in the game, doing so with the fewest pass attempts (3,065) in NFL history.

On the injury front, wide receiver Jarrett Boykin (groin) will miss his second consecutive game and rookie Davante Adams will continue to work as the team's No. 3 wideout behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb with Boykin sidelined.

Right guard T.J. Lang was added to the injury report Wednesday with a non-injury-related issue. Lang is probable against Minnesota and expected to make his customary start.

NOTES: OL/DE Mike Neal was added to the injury report Wednesday with a hip injury that kept him from participating in the team's light workout. ... ILB Brad Jones (quad) may resume playing Thursday night after missing three games. ... DT Josh Boyd (knee) is doubtful. ... ILB Sam Barrington (hamstring) is doubtful.

 

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NFL

MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2) - 10/2/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NFL

Trends

MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay7-1-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

 

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NFL

Minnesota at Green Bay
Minnesota: 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) off an upset win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 102-69 ATS (+26.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB ALDS - Tigers at Orioles

American League Division Series - Game 1
Detroit Tigers (90-72) at Baltimore Orioles (96-66)
First pitch: Thursday, 5:37 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Detroit -125, Baltimore +115, Total: 7

The Tigers and Orioles open their 2014 postseason on Thursday at Camden Yards with Game 1 of the ALDS.

Detroit made the playoffs after beating out Kansas City while going 4-2 in its final six games of the year. The offense was phenomenal during the season, ranking first in the majors in batting average (.277), second in runs (757) and second in on-base percentage (.331). The offense was led by 1B Miguel Cabrera (.313 BA) and DH Victor Martinez (.335 BA) who combined to drive in 212 runs while smacking 57 homers. This duo has not been alone though, and 2B Ian Kinsler (.275 BA) is red-hot coming into the postseason, going 12-for-41 (.293) with three homers, 10 RBI and seven runs in his final 10 games.

Baltimore had no problem winning the AL East, finishing the regular season 12 games ahead of the second-place Yankees. Just like Detroit, this club won with a stellar offense that pounded out the most home runs in the league (211) while putting up the eighth-most runs (705). OF Nelson Cruz (.271 BA) was the big run producer on the team with 40 homers and 108 RBI while OF Adam Jones (.281 BA) put up another huge season, tallying 29 homers, 96 RBI and 88 runs. Jones also brings a four-game hitting streak into the postseason in which he is 5-for-17 with two taters and 5 RBI. This contest will feature Tigers ace RHP Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.19 ERA) facing RHP Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) of the host Orioles.

Detroit has done very well on the road with a 45-36 record (.556, T-6th in majors) while Baltimore has an exceptional 50-31 mark (.617, 5th in MLB) at Camden Yards.

The Tigers hold a slight 10-8 edge in this matchup over the past three seasons and are 5-1 in the series in 2014. The last time these two clubs met, Detroit swept the O's in Baltimore over three games; outscoring them 15-7.

The injury report has no significant injuries to any Tigers on it, while Baltimore continues to miss the services of 3B Manny Machado (knee) who is out for the season.

Max Scherzer has been striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings in each of the past three years and has a 55-15 record (.786) in that time. In 2014 he allowed a career-low 0.74 HR/9 in 220.1 frames while maintaining a solid walk rate (2.6 BB/9). He has pitched at least six innings in nine of his past 10 starts in leading his team to an 8-2 record over that time. The right-hander has been strong his postseason career, going 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a remarkable 12.0 K/9 rate (74 K's in 55.1 IP). Scherzer has started six games against the Orioles in his career, going 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while giving up five homers in just 39 innings of work.

OFs Nelson Cruz (8-for-21, 1 HR, 4 RBI), Adam Jones (9-for-18, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and Nick Markakis (5-for-16, 2 doubles) have all done well in their time against the righty, while SS J.J. Hardy (4-for-23, 1 HR, 2 RBI) has been poor in the matchup.

Detroit’s bullpen has been the club's biggest weakness over the past few years and it is 22-17 (.564) with a 4.29 ERA and 1.48 WHIP while going 41-for-57 (72%) in save opportunities. Joe Nathan (4.81 ERA, 35 saves) did not do great in the closer role this year, as he walked 4.5 batters per nine innings and blew seven saves.

Chris Tillman has been the No. 1 option in the Orioles rotation as he has pitched his second consecutive season with 200 or more innings while having a mediocre strikeout rate (6.5 K/9). He has always had some luck on his side with batters going a career .273 BABIP against him while leaving 76.7% of batters on base in 2014. But Tillman is hot coming into his first career postseason appearance, as he has allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his past 11 starts, going 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA and leading his team to a 10-1 record in that time. When facing Detroit in his career (6 starts), he is 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and has walked 17 batters in his 37.2 frames.

Both DH Victor Martinez (4-for-10, 2 RBI) and 1B Miguel Cabrera (5-for-13, 1 double, 1 HR, 4 RBI) have enjoyed facing Tillman, while C Alex Avila and OF J.D. Martinez have combined to go 1-for-9 with two strikeouts against him. The bullpen for Baltimore has gone 28-21 (.571) with a stellar 3.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and has successfully saved 53-of-72 (74%) contests.

Closer Zach Britton (1.65 ERA, 37 saves) has forced batters to hit an amazing 75.3% of balls on the ground with his nasty sinker while benefiting from hitters batting a mere .215 BABIP against him.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tillman undefeated as home dog this year
Justin Hartling

The Baltimore Orioles send Chris Tillman to the mound for Game 1 of the ALDS Thursday. The O's are currently +104 home dogs, which favors the rightie who has gone a perfect 4-0 as the dog at Camden Yards.

Tillman has only allowed five runs during those five games and has only surrendered an average of five hits per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scherzer clobbering opponents in postseason
Justin Hartling

Max Scherzer has a legitimate claim to being the top playoff pitcher in baseball today. In his nine postseason starts, Scherzer has gone 4-2 while striking out an average of eight batters per game.

The rightie has only allowed 19 runs to plate during his postseason starts, an average of 2.1 runs per game.