Thursday's Tip Sheet
The Thursday night schedule in college football features three games this week including intriguing matchups in the SEC and Pac-12. The SEC contest features two programs fighting for the postseason while the late night Pac-12 game could be a conference championship preview.
Match-up: Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
Venue: Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky
Time/TV: Thursday, October 15, 7:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Auburn -3, Over/Under 51½
Last Meeting: 2010, Auburn (-6) 37-34 at Kentucky
The last time these teams met was in 2010 when a 5-0 Auburn squad led by Cam Newton had just cracked the top 10 and was starting to generate some buzz. Auburn seemed to pull away in the second quarter with a 31-14 lead, but Kentucky hit a field goal just before the break and by the end of the third quarter the game was tied after back-to-back touchdowns by Randall Cobb. Auburn closed the game with a 19-play drive that led to a game winning field goal as time expired. The Tigers would go on to win the SEC and national titles that season while Kentucky finished 6-6 before losing to Pittsburgh in the Compass Bowl.
That was the last season in which Kentucky made the postseason, but hopes are high that this is the breakthrough year with a 4-1 start following up last season’s 5-7 campaign. Mark Stopps has already produced as many SEC wins this season as in the past two seasons combined with wins over South Carolina and Missouri, but there is a difficult schedule remaining and nothing is assured for a team that lost the final six games of the season last year after a 5-1 start and needed overtime to beat FCS Eastern Kentucky in its last game.
Junior quarterback Patrick Towles has thrown eight touchdown passes, but he also has six interceptions. He played his best game in the team’s biggest win, a 21-13 home win over Missouri that featured two late scoring drives from Towles. Kentucky is not a great rushing team averaging only 3.8 yards per carry, but sophomore Stanley Williams has featured big play potential with 343 rushing yards already this season. Four receivers have double-digit receptions already this season but this is not an imposing offense, ranking 94th nationally in total offense and 87th in scoring offense. The Kentucky defense has allowed fewer than 22 points per game through a respectable schedule.
Auburn made the national title game in 2013, the first season with Gus Malzahn as the head coach. Malzahn was the offensive coordinator for the 2010 championship season and he won 17 of his first 19 games as the head coach of the Tigers. Auburn lost five of the final eight last season, including the Outback Bowl for a disappointing finish. Many expected Auburn to be back in SEC and national contention this season, but at 3-2 and most of the toughest games still ahead it has been a very disappointing start. Like Kentucky, Auburn had to survive a scare vs. FCS competition, but the Tigers are 0-2 in SEC play with losses to LSU and Mississippi State, getting outscored 62-30 in those two games.
Quarterback Jeremy Johnson was expected to smoothly take over the offense but it has been a great struggle for the junior who dazzled in brief playing time in the 2014 season. After the disastrous LSU game, Johnson has sat out the last two weeks with freshman Sean White producing no better results the past two weeks. Auburn has not named a starter at quarterback at this point for Thursday’s critical conference game.
Auburn struggled defensively last season allowing nearly 400 yards per game and former Florida head coach Will Muschamp was seen as a great hire to lead the defense this season. The numbers are even worse so far this season and the challenge will only increase the rest of the way. After this game, the Tigers face SEC West powers Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas A&M before a tough crossover game with Georgia. Auburn will finish the season hosting Alabama as well and bowl eligibility is a serious question mark for this team despite projections of being a national playoff sleeper before the season started.
This game won’t have national playoff implications or likely even SEC implications in most scenarios, but the loser of this game will face serious questions about even making the postseason as wins will not be easy to come by the rest of the way. While this isn’t the most glamorous SEC matchup, the game comes at a critical juncture for both programs and it will certainly be a compelling game.
Match-up: UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal
Venue: Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California
Time/TV: Thursday, October 15, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Stanford -6½, Over/Under 55½
Last Meeting: 2014, Stanford (+5) 31-10 at UCLA
Stanford and UCLA both entered the season with 5/1 odds to win the Pac-12, both projected second in divisions trailing USC and Oregon. While Stanford’s opening week loss to Northwestern has crippled their national playoff hopes, the Cardinal are 3-0 in Pac-12 play and figure to be the heavy favorites the rest of the way in the North with Oregon already with two losses and Washington and California both having to visit Stanford. Hosting this difficult crossover game is definitely critical to any hopes to stay in the national picture as a two-loss Pac-12 champion wouldn’t be ruled out, it would take a lot of help around the rest of the nation.
UCLA opened the season 4-0, but a home loss to Arizona State has spoiled the season. While that loss on its own would not likely be overly damaging by season’s end, the rest of the Pac-12 schedule features three very difficult road games with this game, plus road tests at Utah and at USC. Utah has grabbed the headlines in the Pac-12 South, but the Utes have a long ways to go in a very deep division with the Utes 2-0 in league play with both games vs. the North.
At quarterback, UCLA freshman Josh Rosen took the nation by storm emerging as a Heisman candidate as a true freshman. His team survived his worst game of the season with a comeback win against BYU and he has played well in both Pac-12 games, though the turnovers are starting to add up. Paul Perkins is one of the top running backs in the nation with 577 yards already this season and Jordan Payton is among the top receivers in the conference. Defensive injuries have taken a toll with three starters already knocked out of action and taking on a physical Stanford offense will be a challenge.
Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan had a tough 2015 debut for Stanford with an ugly game against a very good Northwestern defense, but he has responded with nine touchdowns and just one interception in four games since. He had a great game in Stanford’s big win at USC and he is spreading the ball around while also leaning on sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey who has nearly doubled his production from last season already. Stanford ranks in the 30's nationally in scoring and total defense at this point in the season despite taking on a challenging schedule as well.
The Cardinal have won seven in a row in this series with a win every year back to 2009 and only one missed cover in that span. It was a blowout last season with Stanford winning 31-10 in Los Angeles. If Stanford wins this game they should be an even heavier favorite in every remaining Pac-12 game and with the finale against Notre Dame and then a potential Pac-12 championship game vs. a quality team, this is a team that will have a say in the national playoff picture if they win out. UCLA has a tougher path, but they will have the opportunity to wipe away the upset loss to the Sun Devils by adding up quality road wins as the Bruins should not be ruled out just yet and regardless of the Thursday night result these teams could definitely meet again in December.
