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2-0 on BIG plays last night Liberty and Ark st . made some money
7-5 237-191 another 1 pt loss i think its 27 now

looking at the Furman @ Tulane game, Furman averaging 82 points a game and giving up 82, while Tulane is averaging 86 points and giving up 79 +7 vs a 0 and the line is right on that, how interesting...and as i looked at Tulane i found something interesting, for a team that averages 86 a game, yet only avg's 55 shots, and makes only 5 3's a game, ya wonder how can they avg 86 points a game??? look at their ft's, this team is averaging almost 32 attempts a game and making 24, they are getting about 26% of their scoring at the FT line, that's crazy, usually teams are maybe 15-17% Furman is averaging 19 attempts, 12 fewer and making between 13-14 , so thats 10 extra on avg for Tulane, they must drive to the rim a lot to pick up foul shots like that , even in their last game when they lost by 30 to Miss st, they were 23/34 while Miss st was just 11/18 they made 12 more ft's and still lost by 30 , because they got out rebounded big time 43 to 27 and Miss st took 70 shots to just 57 for Tulane, and Tulane only made their avg of 5 3 pointers, and Miss st made 13 .....and Furman should be able to control the boards tonight too, Tulane is only averaging 5 offensive boards or 17.6% and Furman is getting 9 or 26.7%, and that should lead to extra shots for Furman tonight, and Tulane is giving up 30% to offensive rebounds , i would guess maybe 6-8 extra shots, and Furman is already averaging 7 more shots a game than Tulane is, as they avg 62 to 55 for Tulane, and Furman is averaging the same amount of fouls too, if they can keep the ft's the same i think Furman has a shot here at +6.5 7, the total in this is 171-172 , with the spread they are figuring a 89-82 type of game tonight, i think this total may come down a little , i am really thinking about taking Furmans TT tonight and going OVER if i can get it at 80 i guess i like Furman if i can get 7 ..Furman should make 10+ 3's tonight as they are averaging 9.9 a game and Tulane is giving up 9 a game anyway , and they should easily get their average of 62 shots, because Tulane is giving up 65 a game already, to be honest i do not see much defense in this game, so maybe the over is worth a shot, If Furman can get to 83-85 they should cover and maybe win , if they get 88 or higher they will , Tulane is shooting 51% on the year, if they shoot higher than that is going to be tough, they could get to 90...the lowest they have scored is 76 that was last game to Miss st, and they scored 77 at Bradley, 2 defensive teams , otherwise they have scored 84 once 88 twice, 89 once and over 90 twice ......i am going to go OVER 170 at MyBookie -116 , they do offer it at 169.5 at -130 168 -150 they do let you move the lines a lot there but with bigger juice, but hell i have 27 1 point losses this year..lol wish i would have...i do like furman but they are just 1-3 ats away this year but 3-1 OVER away

OVER 170 -116 1 unit
 

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als Wisc is just 2-3 ats at home and they are 0-2 ats after a loss, and Jax st will keep this game lower scoring, and if they can do that i like the 21 points, they are 2-2 ats away this year and are 0-4 to the under all 4 have went under when playing away , total is only 125 so they are expecting a 73-52 game, Jax st is avg 64 a game and gives up 63...Wisc is averaging 73 and gives up 66...Jax st should be able to rebound with them, if Jax st can get to 60 they cover here, or if they can hold Wisc to the mid 60's like 66-67 they should cover also, but even if Wisc gets 70-72 i think Jax st stays within 21

Jax st +21 1 unit
 

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als Wisc is just 2-3 ats at home and they are 0-2 ats after a loss, and Jax st will keep this game lower scoring, and if they can do that i like the 21 points, they are 2-2 ats away this year and are 0-4 to the under all 4 have went under when playing away , total is only 125 so they are expecting a 73-52 game, Jax st is avg 64 a game and gives up 63...Wisc is averaging 73 and gives up 66...Jax st should be able to rebound with them, if Jax st can get to 60 they cover here, or if they can hold Wisc to the mid 60's like 66-67 they should cover also, but even if Wisc gets 70-72 i think Jax st stays within 21

Jax st +21 1 unit

BOL today/tonight rummer , let's cash some tickets 💰
 
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Always curious to hear people's thoughts on the totals. I mentioned this in an NBA thread yesterday and I'll mention it here too because my number was very good and oddly a similar popup has happened today. I run two sets of numbers for every game and they NEVER match as they use some varied weighted components. I ran the total on the Furman/Tulane game and both spit out EXACTLY 172.5. I think this game is higher scoring as well but there is so little margin for error on a total this high and I have concerns about the limited number of 3's that will be made, it's a long way to the mid 170's one and two points at a time. You mention one positive factor which will be scoring with the clock stopped via lots of FT's and I think we'll get a close game and may get an over positive end game scenario. I wouldn't bet this game under but I'm going to need 169 or better to play it over and I don't think it's going to come down that much.

Best wishes to you and thanks for all the quality early thoughts most every day.
 

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R/151....continue your winning ways today ....
on both with you.....indy
 

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Always curious to hear people's thoughts on the totals. I mentioned this in an NBA thread yesterday and I'll mention it here too because my number was very good and oddly a similar popup has happened today. I run two sets of numbers for every game and they NEVER match as they use some varied weighted components. I ran the total on the Furman/Tulane game and both spit out EXACTLY 172.5. I think this game is higher scoring as well but there is so little margin for error on a total this high and I have concerns about the limited number of 3's that will be made, it's a long way to the mid 170's one and two points at a time. You mention one positive factor which will be scoring with the clock stopped via lots of FT's and I think we'll get a close game and may get an over positive end game scenario. I wouldn't bet this game under but I'm going to need 169 or better to play it over and I don't think it's going to come down that much.

Best wishes to you and thanks for all the quality early thoughts most every day.
yw and best of luck to you also
 

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yw and best of luck to you also
i do not think i have ever bet an over in the 170's , i think the highest i ever bet was toledo yesterday or the day before at 162, i agree it's high, but it's there for a reason , and it has been sitting at 172 for awhile, which means they have been getting even action maybe a ittle more over, like i said its amazing that tulane averages 86 a game while taking just 55 shots and only making 5 3's a game, i found that to be the strangest thing, will they get the ft's, but i also do not see much defense here either, like i said if either team hits 90 this goes over ....another total i like is the over 151 in the fla st/e.car game, these 2 average 50 ft's between them, they could get 40 points from ft's maybe more....but back to the over only reason i bet it , is because i got 170, i am not thinking i will get 171, i have lost 27 games by 1 point this year, maybe 12 more by 2 , bad handicapping comes by losing anything by 6 + i feel , winning or losing by 2 or less is just LUCK , unless of course you explain it ahead of time and it happens , i was thinking this could be a 92-85 game
 

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another game i bet earlier is the Lamar game, i took lamar+3 buying a half point, now it is only +1 though and i felt it would go down, even though UL Monroe won last time out, and each team lost a scorer from last year, both teams have like 5 players back who have became scorers now, Lamar has only had 1 home game so far vs a div 1 opponent and won, i just think they are going to be pumped to be at home again, and this is anoother game that would tend to go over also, and its only 143, every one of Lamar's games has went over 143, most are in the mid 150's 160's the lowest amount they have scored when they won is 83 points, and when they have lost the lowest amount is 77 points, that's a big reason why i took Lamar in this spot, if they get to 80 they will win and cover,

Confirmation: 2557860​

Date Placed: 12/14/23 06:50:46
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 120.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:
  1. 306604 Lamar +3 Buy ½ (-120) risk 120.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men Extra Games)
strong opinion on OVER 143
 

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reason i favor the over in the fla game is basically because i think Fla will score in the mid to high 80's, E Car has a weak defense, but they have been able to score at times this year, E Car vs good offensive teams this year have given up over 80 , Kennesaw st G Mason 81, sc upstate 83, N.eastern 82, and Florida has had some high scoring games them selves they avg 84 a game, they just scored 87 vs Richmond, 86 vs Pitt, 89 vs Fla st, 91 vs Baylor, they should be able to get close to 90 tonight, with the total at 151 152 means you would need 64-65 from ECU to cover by a few points, and going with that maybe Florida is the play here, can ECU put up 75?? i think they will have to get close to cover the spread which is 14.5 15 so 90-76 covers, 85-71 covers, for ECU but i would have more trust in the over i think, thinking that ECU will get into the high 60's , only worry would be a 84-64 type of game, ecu is 5-4 over florida is 6-2-1 over
 

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well i have decided to go with what i said and take Florida-14 here, yes i like the OVER also but i do feel this falls more towards a 88-70 type of game this is stuff i use to not ever play was bigger spreads but thew other day i did real well on the day when most spreads were high, i just always found myself trying to handicap games with spreads under 10 or lower, game where maybe both teams could have a chance to win outright, but i do think Florida gets this cover, also they should have a good advantage in rebounds as they have a 40.9% offensive rebound % and E Car has a 34%, also they have big edges in 1st half and 2nd half scoring here, and they are averaging 64.5 shots a game making over 29 while ECU is averaging 57 shots making 25 , besides the scoring advantage, rebounding advantage which should lead to extra shots, and they have won every home game by 20+, and the one road game ECU played was at G.Mason and they lost by 22 ...one other trend for the over is that Florida is 3-0-1 over on a Neutral court

Ticket Number:746986351
Accepted Date:12/14/23
Amount:$117.00
Status pending
To win:$100.00
Type:Spread
Description:Basketball - NCAA - East Carolina vs Florida - Spread | 874 Florida -14 -117 buying -½ for GAME | 12/14/2023 07:00:01 PM (EST) | Pending
Neutral Court
 

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OVER 170 Tulane
Lamar+3
Jax St +21
Florida-14
over 151 florida/ecu

Over 143 Lamar/U L Monroe
 

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Man florida's TT is 83.5 that is tempting Furmans was 82.5
 

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Fairgrounds 8th keep an eye on the 2 horse B Fifty Two solid horse good jock 8-1 right now the 4 is 7/5 exacta 2-4 48.00 ex 4-2 25.00 boxed the 2478 super
 

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what the hell happened in the furman game???? it showed furman up 92-89 with 1 second left...in the play by play it shows they were up with 0:00 left, then 3 ft's with no time left, did they call a shooting foul with no time left from like 3/4 court or something??? how else with no time left wow one of those the over was good i said 177 and they had ...now its 99-99 lol they keep giving tulane a chance to cover, i kind of favored Furman like i wrote
 

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one game it looks like got me fla-14 and the over, seems ECU controlled the tempo maybe ...JAX st covers, i had this pegged exactly in my write up, i said if Jax st can get to 60 they cover, and said wisc mid 70's 1st 2 games bet win ....Lamar game had 84 at half, today i actually posted my send out as a play, my strong opinion on the OVER 143 Lamar they have 133 with 8 mins left they should get this OVER, and Lamar is up 23 need to hang on here ...just glad my capping was dead on , has been last few when i have a write up, ...Lamar shooting 58% and 51% from 3...lamar just got to 80 i said if they get to 80 they win and cover 83-57 i think the OVER is good more or less my big play

over furman 170 WINNER
Jax st WINNER
 

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tulane might get this it dod go to 7.5 depending 2 ot's be a bad loss if you had furman anytime your on a dog os 4 pts or more and it goes to OT you got screwed 4 points a late 3 cant beat ya , the favorite needs ot to even have a shot, so they are begging for it, while your hoping it ends , then to have it happen twice??? wow lands on 7 feel for furman backers that was the right call most got a push anyway late bettors maybe won i seen it at 7.5 late
 

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one game it looks like got me fla-14 and the over, seems ECU controlled the tempo maybe ...JAX st covers, i had this pegged exactly in my write up, i said if Jax st can get to 60 they cover, and said wisc mid 70's 1st 2 games bet win ....Lamar game had 84 at half, today i actually posted my send out as a play, my strong opinion on the OVER 143 Lamar they have 133 with 8 mins left they should get this OVER, and Lamar is up 23 need to hang on here ...just glad my capping was dead on , has been last few when i have a write up, ...Lamar shooting 58% and 51% from 3...lamar just got to 80 i said if they get to 80 they win and cover 83-57 i think the OVER is good more or less my big play

over furman 170 WINNER
Jax st WINNER
Lamar EASY WINNER
OVER 143 EASY WINNER

all 4 easy wins
4-2 best play won but had no BIG play send outs are usually the best another winning night ill say this the handicapping is good, even the night i had 3 1 pt losses i thought it was on , i just need some more 1 point wins somewhere

241-193
 

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well tomorrow i am liking Tex AM CC +3 -105 these 2 just [played and Pan AM won 76-74 looking at that game, Pan am shot 50 % 25/50 and were 6/19 from 3 and 20/29 from the ft line while Tex am cc shot 37% as they were 23/62, and only 4/20 from 3 but were 24/31 at the line, there were 60 ft attempts in that game, and notice Tex CC got 12 more shots, and that was because they had 46 rebounds to just 26 for Pan Am , so they should get more rebounds again, and i think they will shoot better, Pan AM i do not think will shoot 50% again, and one of their scorers was only 2/11 and 1/6 from 3 i think they again get more shots but this time they make a few more and maybe get the win here, the total here of 150 is close, but if they get 60 fts and make 50 this could go over, ..the 2 games these 2 played last year were pan am 89-82 and TexCC won at home 97-75, they rebound so much better that they should get 6-9 more shots here, i think they bounce back with the win

Tex AM CC +3 -105 1 unit
 

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