Thursday 1/19/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: California Golden Bears (13-5) at Oregon Ducks (16-2)

Date: January 19, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

EUGENE, Ore. -- Oregon's streak of 14 consecutive wins include five in a row to open the Pac-12 Conference schedule.

Yet after a buzzer-beater to defeat No. 3 UCLA, the Ducks have won four straight, by an average margin of 26.5 points, over team currently out of the Top 25. All four of those opponents are sixth or worse in the Pac-12.

The schedule is about to get tougher for Oregon.

The 13th-ranked Ducks (16-2, 5-0 Pac-12) are home against fourth-place California (13-5, 4-2) on Thursday before hosting Stanford on Saturday. Oregon goes back on the road Jan. 26 to play at fifth-place Utah (12-5, 3-2).

"We are at home for three straight games and then the schedule after next week really flips on us," said Oregon coach Dana Altman, whose team drilled visiting Oregon State 85-43 on Saturday. "We have to get ready for California on Thursday."

Oregon is tied for first in the Pac-12 with Arizona, while UCLA is one-half game back at 5-1.

"We know we have to get better because everyone else is," Oregon guard Casey Benson said "Arizona, UCLA, everyone is getting better. It is exciting to know we have room to grow and get better. We have to maintain our focus and keep each other accountable."

Oregon would match the school record with a 15th straight win if they can beat the Bears. The Ducks have the second-longest active home winning streak in the NCAA at 36 straight.

With all those accomplishments, Oregon also is maintaining a selfless attitude.

Benson started all 38 games during Oregon's run to the Elite Eight last season before coming off the bench for the past 14 games. Senior center Chris Boucher is averaging 13.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, but he has adapted to a role off the bench in the past five games.

"Chris came up to me before the game and said, 'Coach, I don't know what you want to do with the starting lineup, but if you want to bring me off the bench and start the guys you have been starting, that's great,'" Altman said after the Saturday game. "That shows you how unselfish he is."

The 6-foot-10 Boucher moved to the bench to make way in the starting unit for preseason All-America forward Dillon Brooks, who missed the first three games of the season following offseason foot surgery and played in a reserve role during his first five games of his return.

Brooks is averaging 13.6 points per game as Oregon has five players scoring in double digits. Guard Tyler Dorsey averages 12.7 points, and guard Dylan Ennis is at 11.8. Forward Jordan Bell leads the team with 8.0 rebounds per game to go with 10.2 points.

California has bounced back from a 1-2 start in conference play to win three straight games after rallying for a 58-54 win over Washington State on Saturday.

"I thought we made plays defensively that took certain guys away and we did a good job of exploiting matchups on the other end as well," California sophomore forward Ivan Rabb said. "In the end, a win is a win."

Rabb leads the Bears with 15.6 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. Freshman Charlie Moore is averaging 14.6 points and a team-leading 3.1 assists, while senior guard Jabari Bird is scoring 13.4 points per game after registering his 1,000th career point in the win over the Cougars.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Clemson Tigers (11-6) at Louisville Cardinals (15-3)

Date: January 19, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

LOUISVILLE -- No. 12 Louisville won't have starting point guard Quentin Snider on Thursday when it hosts Clemson at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville.

Snider, who strained a hip flexor in the second half of Saturday's 78-69 win over Duke, likely will miss the next two to three weeks of games, according to coach Rick Pitino. Louisville's game notes list freshman Ryan McMahon as the starter at point in place of Snider.

"We've all been working at point," sophomore starting guard Donovan Mitchell said. "I brought the ball up, Ryan brought the ball up, Tony (Hicks) brought the ball up -- even Matz (7-footer Matz Stockman) is trying it."

The Cardinals (15-3, 3-2) likely will use a combination of McMahon, senior transfer Hicks and senior walk-on David Levitch at the point guard spot.

Clemson coach Brad Brownell hasn't spent much time worrying about Louisville's lineup change. The Tigers (11-6, 1-4) are hungry for an ACC win after losing its last four games versus North Carolina, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Virginia.

"I haven't thought a lot about Louisville. I've been thinking about our team," Brownell said. "To be honest with you, it's hard sometimes to get them to compete as hard as I need them to compete, to follow the details of the defense like they need to. We haven't done a good enough job of coaching them that way to improve some of that. It's been a battle with our team."

Clemson has been close in several league losses. The Tigers took No. 14 North Carolina to overtime before falling 89-86. The Notre Dame contest was a one possession game in the final two minutes. The Tigers lost to No. 19 Virginia 77-73.

"Louisville is one of the best teams in the country," Brownell said. "They play as hard as anybody you'll play. You have to have an unbelievable will, unbelievable level of effort to go in there and match those guys in their environment, the way they play. Your competitive spirit has got to be really high. We've got to get ourselves right."

And the Cardinals know that Clemson is formidable. Louisville lost 66-62 last year at Clemson and the 2015 game was within a possession late in the second half before the Cardinals pulled away 58-52.

"They beat us last year," Pitino said. "They're capable of beating anybody in our conference, but that's true of just about anyone."

"We know how good they are," guard Deng Adel said.

Clemson grad forward Jaron Blossomgame is one of the top players in the league. He has four-straight 20-point performances and is averaging 18.4 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. He'll be guarded by Adel on the wing.

Without Snider, the Cardinals' defense could have to shift as well. Louisville has had two practices without him so far. Pitino said Tuesday that he wasn't quite sure which lineup would work best.

The Cardinals' coach did compliment Snider's toughness, saying he will be back 3-5 days faster than a normal player, but that he needs to rest his hip to make sure he is healthy before playing again.

"Q is such a tough guy," Pitino said. "We have some guys who take a small hit and it looks like they got hit by Muhammad Ali, but Q got back in there and finished the game Saturday."

Clemson graduate year G Avry Holmes has made a 3-pointer in 13 straight games.

Louisville is No. 1 in the ACC in field goal percentage defense at 29 percent.

The Cardinals are last in the ACC at 3-point shooting at 34.2 percent.

Louisville is fourth in the nation in blocked shots per game at 6.6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pacific Tigers (8-11) at Saint Mary's Gaels (15-2)

Date: January 19, 2017 11:00 PM EDT

After suffering its worst loss in nearly three years, No. 23 Saint Mary's will try to bounce back when the Gaels host Pacific in a West Coast Conference game on Thursday evening.

Saint Mary's (15-2, 5-1 WCC) has beaten Pacific (8-11, 2-4) seven times in a row, but in their most recent meeting last season, the Tigers held a seven-point lead with four minutes left before dropping a 68-65 decision to the Gaels in Stockton, Calif.

Saint Mary's would rather not be pressed to the limit this time. The Gaels have been ranked in the Top 25 every week this season. But after reaching their highest ranking in school history at No. 12 in early December, the Gaels find themselves with their lowest mark of the season following Saturday's 79-56 loss at Gonzaga on Saturday.

The game was not as lopsided as the score suggests, as Saint Mary's trailed by just six points with 8:35 left before Gonzaga poured it on down the stretch for a 23-point victory. It was the Gaels' largest margin of defeat since a 75-47 loss to Gonzaga on March 1, 2014.

"Ten minutes to go, it was a good game and then we took bad shots, turned it over and didn't guard well," Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett said. "I'm really disappointed in how we defended them today.

"I think we were bad defensively in the second half. Last 10 minutes of the game, we weren't good offensively."

Saint Mary's center Jock Landale, who leads the team in scoring at 17.3 points per game and rebounding at 9.5, was limited to 19 minutes and 10 points because of foul trouble against Gonzaga.

It was the second straight game Landale failed to score more than 10 points, although the Gaels did not need much from him in their 74-33 victory at Portland last Thursday.

"Probably the best game we've played for 40 minutes," Bennett said. "It is hard to do that, to keep it rolling like that. I think we did a great job defensively."

The Gaels sprinted out to a 29-6 lead against the Pilots and dominated that game.

Meanwhile slow starts have been the problem for Pacific.

In their last three games, the Tigers got behind 8-1 to BYU, 11-1 to Pepperdine and 17-4 to San Francisco, which beat the Tigers 72-51 in their most recent game on Saturday.

"I wish I had the answer for those slow starts," first-year Pacific coach Damon Stoudamire said. "In the first half (against USF), no organization."

Senior T.J. Wallace, who leads Pacific in scoring (13.4 points per game) and assists (3.6), has seen enough of the Gaels to know what to expect.

"They're very smart defensively and offensively," he said. "They have a lot of high-IQ basketball players there. They are well coached and they execute their game plan to a T, and that's who they are."

Saint Mary's is second in the nation in scoring defense, yielding just 57.9 points per game.

The Tigers will need to get more out of Wallace and Ray Bowles, who averages 13.1 points, than they did against San Francisco. No Pacific player scored in double figures in that game, with Bowles and Wallace scoring nine points apiece.

"We've got to figure some things out," Stoudamire said. "I'm more concerned about Pacific than Saint Mary's."

Beating Saint Mary's on the Gaels' 3,500-seat home court will be a challenge. The Gaels are 9-1 at home this season while the Tigers are 1-7 away from home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils (9-9) at UCLA Bruins (18-1)

Date: January 19, 2017 11:00 PM EDT

A weekend showdown with No. 14 Arizona looms large on UCLA's upcoming schedule, but the third-ranked Bruins need to remain focused on the task at hand when they entertain Arizona State in a Pac-12 Conference game Thursday at Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles.

UCLA (18-1, 5-1 Pac-12) has won five in a row since sustaining an 89-87 loss to No. 11 Oregon. The Bruins are enjoying their best start since winning 18 of their first 19 games to start the 2006-07 season.

Arizona State (9-9, 2-3) has lost two in a row and three of its last four. The Sun Devils have dropped five of their last six and 18 of their last 23 against UCLA.

The Bruins swept their Rocky Mountain road trip last week, beating Colorado 104-89 and Utah 83-82. Lonzo Ball had 17 points and eight assists in the win over Colorado. TJ Leaf recorded his ninth double-double of the season, posting 12 points and 10 rebounds.

"I'm just proud of our guys' effort," UCLA coach Steve Alford said. "We didn't shoot the ball particularly well, but we found a way to win. I just can't say enough about this team. We are almost at 20 games and this team continues to do things that breed winning."

Bryce Alford was named Pac-12 Player of the Week after averaging 26 points and shooting 57.1 percent from 3-point range in the wins over Colorado and Utah. Alford erupted for a career-high 37 points and tied a school record with nine 3-pointers in the victory over Colorado, the highest-scoring game by a Bruin since Dijon Thompson posted 39 points against Arizona State on Feb. 10, 2005.

"It's just one of those things that you can get going," he said. "You make a couple (and) then you get to the line a couple of times. I made all my free throws finally tonight. Anytime I can get to the free-throw line and see the ball go in, and I always say when you see the first couple go in, it always helps."

Arizona State is coming off a 91-75 loss to rival Arizona. Obinna Oleka had a career-high 22 points and nine rebounds for the Sun Devils.

Tra Holder scored 20 points, Torian Graham added 18 and Shannon Evans II tied his career high with eight assists, but the Sun Devils couldn't overcome a slow start. The Wildcats shot 57 percent from the field and amassed a 38-22 rebounding advantage.

The Sun Devils trailed 45-25 at the break. They battled back to get within 12 in the second half, but they were unable to cut the deficit to single digits.

"No matter where you are playing on the road, you want to get your feet under you," Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley told the Arizona Republic. "I tried to flip it in the huddle, telling my guys you have to fight the whole game and we are going to climb back in it. And we did, but we never got to a margin where we could put significant pressure on Arizona."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Gonzaga Bulldogs (17-0) at Santa Clara Broncos (10-9)

Date: January 19, 2017 11:00 PM EDT

Santa Clara's road sweep of San Diego and Pepperdine last week put the host Broncos a half-game away from No. 4 Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference standings if they can pull off the upset Thursday.

Only four teams have winning conference records and coach Herb Sendek's Broncos are one of them at 4-2 with an overall record of 10-9. Gonzaga tops the conference standings at 5-0 and the Bulldogs are 17-0 overall, the only team left in the nation with an unbeaten record.

St. Mary's is second behind Gonzaga at 5-1 after losing 79-56 in Spokane, Wash., last Saturday and BYU and Santa Clara are next at 4-2.

The Broncos achieved the road sweep last week despite only one victory away from home in seven previous games.

"It's good to get out of here with a win," Sendek said of the 75-61 win over Pepperdine on Saturday behind Jared Brownridge's 30 points. "I told our guys we did a lot of good things that we can continue to build on."

The Broncos showed the kind of offensive firepower against the Waves that they will need to keep up with Gonzaga, which ranks first in the WCC and 16th nationally in scoring offense at 85.6 points a game.

Santa Clara scored 50 points in the second half against Pepperdine on 60 percent shooting from the field, including an 8-of-13 mark from 3-point range. Brownridge scored 30 or more points for the 11th time in his career to extend his own school record.

"We showed how we are capable of playing by showing that energy to get things done," said Brownridge, who averages 17.9 points to lead the Broncos.

Guards K.J. Feagin and Matt Hauser combine for 25.1 points and 10.3 assists per game. Forward Nate Kratch averages 10.3 points and a team-leading 6.7 rebounds per game.

Kratch, who is 6-foot-8 and 227 pounds, and forward Jarvis Pugh (6-6, 210) have the most presence in the paint combining for 19.2 points and 9.2 rebounds a game.

Santa Clara literally will have a tall order to compete against 7-1, 300-pound Przemek Karnowski and 7-0 reserve forward Zach Collins in addition to 6-9 forward Johnathan Williams and 6-10 reserve center Killian Tillie.

Karnowski leads the WCC shooting 68.2 percent from the field in conference games and Williams is shooting 65.5 percent. Collins is shooting 64.5 percent overall, which tops the conference. Tillie adds another body to absorb fouls and attack the boards.

The victory over St. Mary's, in which Gonzaga shot 64.7 percent of the floor, served notice how fluid and effective coach Mark Few's offense is executing.

"With our offense, coach (Few) stresses getting multiple ball screens," said point guard Nigel Williams-Goss, who leads the team in scoring (15.2 points a game) and assists (4.8) and is shooting a career-high 41 percent beyond the 3-point arc.

"When you have (guard) Josh (Perkins) on one side and me on the other, both ball screens are equally effective and it really puts the defense in a tough position."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 19 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

On Wednesday's Opening Line Report, I mentioned that No. 7 Creighton was awaiting news on a potential serious ligament injury to excellent point guard Maurice Watson Jr. There was one report from the school that his ligaments were "sound," but that was wishful thinking as Watson has been diagnosed with a torn ACL that will end his collegiate career. The Bluejays are one of the nation's best offensive teams and Watson was the guy who made that unit go in averaging 12.9 points and 8.5 assists (No. 1 in the nation in that category). Too bad as this appeared to be one of the best Creighton teams in years and its 18-1 start is the best in school history.

No. 25 Maryland at Iowa ( -1 )

Big Ten matchup at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Go look at the Big Ten and it's rather a mess. Bunch of solid teams but definitely no great ones. Maybe the Terps are the best of the bunch as they have just two overall losses and a half-game lead over second-place Wisconsin. But Maryland also lost at home to average teams Pittsburgh and Nebraska, so who knows? The Terps are off a 62-56 win at Illinois on Saturday to complete the season sweep. This is a good defensive team in allowing just 65.1 ppg. Incidentally, both Fran McCaffery of Iowa and Maryland's Mark Turgeon enter Thursday's game with 380 career victories as a head coach.

Iowa isn't going to the Big Dance this season and comes off an 89-54 blowout loss at Northwestern on Sunday. The Hawkeyes' best player is senior guard Peter Jok. He leads the team or ranks second in points (21.9, first in Big Ten), rebounds (6.2), assists (2.4) and steals (1.1) per game. However, Jok was held to a season-low four points on 2-for-9 shooting against the Wildcats and played just six minutes in the second half because of a back problem. I don't expect Jok to miss this game, but if he's less than 100 percent I don't give Iowa a great shot. In the teams' lone matchup last season, Jok had a team-high 14 points in a 74-68 loss at Maryland.

Key trends: The Terps are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven vs. the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 in the conference. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.

I'm leaning: Maryland.

Clemson at No. 12 Louisville (-8)

ACC game at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Another day, another injury issue for a Final Four contender. This time, it's to Louisville guard Quentin Snider, although it's relatively good news for the Cardinals. Snider will only miss 2-3 weeks with an injured hip and thus, barring a setback, will return in plenty of time for the stretch run to the regular season as well as the postseason tournaments. Snider is averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game. Louisville has a potential trap game here ahead of visiting No. 10 Florida State on Saturday. U of L has won three straight and handled visiting Duke on Saturday, 78-69. Snider was hurt in that game but still went 35 minutes and had 13 points, six assists and five rebounds.

Clemson brings a four-game losing streak into this one, and three of those were to ranked teams. The Tigers played well against North Carolina, Notre Dame and then Virginia on Saturday in losing by just a combined 12 points. It was 77-73 at home against the Wahoos. "We've got to find ways to win these games," Coach Brad Brownell said following that one. "It's the fourth league game that has come down to the last minute and we've only won one." Jaron Blossomgame had 22 for Clemson vs. UVA and he could start for anyone. Alas, the senior (18.4 ppg) rarely gets a ton of help. Clemson upset No. 16 Louisville 66-62 in the lone meeting last year. Blossomgame had 17 points.

Key trends: The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. The Cards are 2-6 ATS in their past eight vs. the ACC.

Early lean: Clemson.

Stanford at Oregon State (TBA)

An 11 p.m.ET start on the Pac-12 Network. These are two of the worst teams in the conference, and Oregon State sits at the bottom of the Pac-12 with a 0-5 mark (Colorado had same entering Wednesday). The Cardinal might be without their best player here in Reid Travis -- if there's a key injury like this, I will still preview a game even if there's no immediate line as at least you can jump when it does post. Travis injured his shoulder in his team's 76-69 home win over Washington on Saturday and is being called day-to-day. He also missed two games earlier with a right shoulder injury. Travis averages 16.6 points and 8.9 rebounds.

Oregon State has just four wins all season: Prairie View A&M, UT San Antonio, Southern Oregon and Kent State. So, yeah, this isn't a good team. To be fair, it has been gutted by injuries. The Beavers were blown out at rival Oregon on Saturday, 85-43. It was OSU's most lopsided loss in 347 Civil War games. Oregon scored the first 21 points before Drew Eubanks finally scored for Oregon State more than nine minutes in. OSU was 4-for-24 from the field during the first half, including 1-for-10 on 3-pointers. Tres Tinkle, who leads Oregon State with 20.2 points per game, missed his 12th straight game due to a broken wrist. OSU and Stanford split last year, each winning on the road.

Key trends: The Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their past five vs. teams with a losing record. OSU is 4-1 ATS in its past five at home. Stanford is 14-4 ATS in its past 18 trips to Corvallis.

Early lean: Stanford if Travis plays, Oregon State if not.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Thursday’s games

Maryland won nine of its last 10 games, winning last three, by 7-3-6 points; they’re 2-0 on Big 14 road, winning at Michigan/Illinois. Terrapins are #319 experience team that are held together by great PG Trimble. Iowa is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road in league, winning by 3-6-5 points; Hawkeyes are #343 experience team that has #12 eFG% defense in Big 14, not good. Home side won both Big 14 matchups between Iowa/Maryland; Terps lost 71-55 here couple years ago. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 6-3 vs spread.

Dayton won six of last seven games, is 4-1 in A-14, winning by 11-3 points over LaSalle/URI. Flyers force turnovers 23.9% of time in A-14 games. Richmond is 5-0 in A-14 with wins at GW, St Joe’s, Davidson; Spiders are shooting 58.6% inside arc in A-14 games, are 6-1 since frosh Buckingham became a starter. Dayton won its last four games with Richmond; Spiders lost last three visits here, by 4-12-3 points- they beat Richmond by 15 in A-14 tourney last March. Double digit home favorites are 4-9 vs spread in A-14 games this season.

SMU won 11 of last 12 games; they’re 5-1 in AAC, with home wins by 14 over Temple, 19 over USF. Mustangs are shooting 43.1% on arc in league games, are grabbing 43.9% of their own missed shots. UConn lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-2 on AAC road, losing by 2-9 points- they lost non-league game at Georgetown by 3 in last game. Home side won five of six AAC regular season meetings between UConn-SMU; Huskies lost last three visits to Dallas, by 9-18-26 points. Double digit home favorites are 3-4 vs spread in AAC games this season.

Battle of 6-0 teams in CAA. NC-Wilmington won its last seven games with Charleston, winning last two visits here, both in OT; they also beat Cougars in last two CAA tourneys. UNCW is 3-0 on CAA road, winning by 9-18-10 points; they force turnovers 22.7% of time, shoot 57.8% inside arc in CAA games. Charleston won its last seven games, has home wins by by 5-6-10 points- they don’t turn ball over much. Cougars are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win over Davidson. CAA road favorites of 5 or less points are 3-4 vs spread.

LaSalle won its last four games after a 6-5 start; they’re 3-0 in A-14 home games, winning by 21-7-10 points- they scored 84.7 pts/game in last three games. Explorers are #61 experience team that is making 81% of FT’s in A-14. Davidson is 2-3 in A-14, losing by 2-4-6 points; they split pair of A-14 road games. Wildcats upset VCU in last game. Davidson is 4-0 vs LaSalle in A-14 play, beating Explorers by 1-15 points in last two conference tourneys. Wildcats won 77-69 (+1.5) here two years ago. A-14 home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-5 vs spread.

Houston lost two of last three games after a 12-3 start; Cougars are 4-2 in AAC, splitting pair of home games- they lost to Cincinnati. Houston forces turnovers 22% of time in AAC play. Memphis won four of last five games; they split pair of AAC road games, losing by 10 at Tulsa, winning at Tulane. Tigers are playing 2nd-fastest tempo in AAC. Memphis won six of last eight games with Houston but lost two of last three visits here. Home side won five of last six series games. AAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-4 vs spread.

USC is 2-3 in its last five games after a 14-0 start; Trojans split pair of Pac-12 home games, beating Stanford, losing to Cal by a point. USC is 4-3 vs top 100 teams. Arizona won its last nine games, is 2-0 on Pac-12 road, winning by 5 at Cal, 39 at Stanford. Wildcats are 5-2 vs top 100 teams. Arizona won seven of last nine games with USC, but they lost two of last three visits here, losing in four OT’s in Galen Center LY. Pac-12 road favorites of 5 or less points are 1-3 vs spread. These are top two teams in league at getting to foul line.

California won its last three games, allowing 62 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on Pac-12 road, losing by 10 at UCLA, beating USC (only true road games this season). Bears are 13-2 in its last 15 games with Oregon, but lost 68-65 here LY, their first loss in last seven visits to Eugene. Cal is holding foes to 44.2% inside arc; they do not force lot of turnovers, Oregon won its last 14 games, is 5-0 in Pac-12 games, winning home games by 2-34-42 points. Ducks force turnovers 21.6% of time in Pac-12. Double digit home favorites are 3-7-1 in Pac-12 games this season.

Clemson lost its last four games after an 11-2 start, dropping ACC road games by 5 at Notre Dame, 12 at Ga Tech (they won at Wake Forest). ACC foes are shooting 43.1% on arc vs Clemson. Louisville won its last three games by 15-5-9 points, making 22-49 on arc; Cardinals have #6 eFG% defense in country- they’re 2-1 in ACC home games, beating Pitt/Duke by 5-9, after losing to Virginia. Home side won both ACC meetings with Clemson-Louisville; Tigers (+16) lost 58-52 here two years ago. Single digit home favorites are 11-6 in ACC games. Louisville guard Snider (plays 74.9% of time) is out with an injury for a couple of weeks.

San Diego is #323 experience team that plays only 7 guys; they’re 2-4 in WCC, but winning two of last three. Toreros are #1 in WCC at getting to foul line and make 76.1% once they get there. Loyola Marymount won four of last five games with San Diego, beating Toreros by 3 in WCC tourney LY. USD lost last three visits to Gersten Pavilion by 3-9-4 points. LMU is #25 experience team that is worst in WCC at putting opponents on line. Lions are 2-4 in WCC, also won two of last three games. WCC home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-5 this season.

East Tennessee State is 4-1 in SoCon games, winning road games by 44 over Citadel, 9 over Mercer. ETSU is shooting 62.3% inside arc in league play. Home side won all four East Tennessee-Furman games; Buccaneers lost by 4-4 points in last two visits here. ETSU beat Paladins by 8 in SoCon tourney last March. Furman are home for first time in 17 days; they beat Mercer/Citadel in first two SoCon home games. Paladins start four juniors and a senior, are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-6-16 points. Single digit road favorites are 2-4 in SoCon games.

Battle for first place in Summit League. North Dakota State won four of last five games; they’re 2-0 at home in league, winning by 12-4 points over Omaha/IUPUI. Bison plays slowest tempo in league, defends well. Home side won last six IPFW-ND State games; Mastodons lost last five visits here, by 16-12-11-4-16 points. Bison beat Fort Wayne by point in Summit tourney last March. Mastodons split pair of Summit road games, with games decided by total of five points. Summit League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Siena’s 4-game win streak (after a 4-11 start) started with 56-54 (-4.5) home win over St Peter’s 12 days ago, but Saints lost last six visits to Jersey City, by 8-7-10-13-8-4 points. Siena’s win at Fairfield Sunday was their first road win in 11 tries this year- this is third game in five nights for both sides here. Peacocks allowed 58 pts/game in winning last three games; they’re 3-1 in MAAC home games, with only loss to Iona back in December. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Siena’s Marquis Wright is suspended for this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Entries are out for Saturday’s Road to the Derby Kickoff Day at Fair Grounds and we have a field of 12 lining up for the $200,000 Lecomte (G3), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The Steve Asmussen trained Untrapped is the 9-2 morning line favorite but may not end up the actual betting favorite in a wide-open race. The colt picked up his maiden score in his second career start at Churchill Downs going six furlongs.

Guest Suite (5-1) was third in the Street Sense in his first start against winners and then trounced Alw-1 optional claimers in his most recent outing by 6 ¼ lengths. The Neil Howard trainee has been working sharply since his last outing.

Saint’s Fan (5-1) draws the outside post and the Dallas Stewart trainee is perfect in two starts. He won the state bred Louisiana Juvenile at six panels in his last outing.

Takeoff (6-1) will be saddled by trainer Mark Casse. The colt broke his maiden going two turns in gate to wire fashion in his third career start.

I will have selections for the race in Saturday’s column and weather could be a factor as there are thunderstorms in the forecast.

We also have the Sunshine Millions card coming up on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. We have five stakes on the card highlighted by the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $16,000N3L (12:35 ET)
#5 Modern Tale 3-1
#4 Buon Gusto 5-2
#3 Spanish Armada 4-1
#1 Union Vow 8-1

Analysis: Modern Tale came up the inside with a good late rally to finish third last out at this level going 7 1/2 furlongs over good ground here. Two back he tracked the early pace and then did not have enough punch left in a fourth-place finish, beaten two lengths. I like the jock switch here to Castellano as the gelding makes his third start of his current form cycle.

Buon Gusto chased the early pace and weakened late to finish third last out against $12,500 non-winners of two here on the main track going seven furlongs. His last turf try came three back where he pressed the early pace and weakened late to finish third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Procino barn that is showing a 0 for 3 mark first off the claim. Dating back five years the barn is showing a 4 for 27 mark first off the claim. Lopez takes the call.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,3,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 1,3,4,5 / 1,3,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 Clm 30,000N3L (4:32 ET)
#4 Janine Melnitz 5-1
#1 Believe Indeed 8-1
#7 Bareeqa 6-1
#2 Bendita 4-1

Analysis: Janine Melnitz returns off a two-month break after making a good late run to finish third last out at this level at Laurel Park going a mile. The winner Ballinskellgs came back to beat open $16,000 claimers in her next start and then was a game second against $16,000 starter handicap foes in her most recent outing. Lopez takes the call and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Believe Indeed beat $25,000 non-winners of two last out over good ground at Tampa Bay Downs and steps up a notch here to the non-winners of three level. The runner up in her last start was Judy's Chance, who came back to beat $15,000 non-winners of two in her next start at Tampa on Jan. 14. The filly has landed in the exacta in 5 of 8 trips on turf in her career and looks headed in the right direction for Ryan who claimed her for $20,000 last summer. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #1 Union Vow 8-1
R4: #3 Raptor 12-1
R6: #7 Gray Dude 8-1
R9: #1 Believe Indeed 8-1
R10: #10 Stolen Sunday 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$7500 - PREFERRED 3.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 SEEYOU MEN 4/1
# 3 KENNEL BUDDY 3/1
# 9 ALACRITY 2/1

SEEYOU MEN is the most solid bet in this gathering. Worth considering in this event if only for the very nice speed fig earned in the last contest. Good driver/trainer, winning 20 percent of the time. Could be a terrific bet. Gelding has one of the finest win percentages in the pack and that could be the deciding factor when they head for home. KENNEL BUDDY - Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 83). The group noted a very promising effort out of this entrant last time. Hoping for a repeat effort of that to end up in the winner's circle. ALACRITY - With a 83 avg class rating, this nice horse has one of the most respectable class edges in the field of starters.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 9:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$10000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $15,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 WILLIAM STAR 12/1
# 5 GIRL DRAMA 6/1
# 6 NOTROUBLE DECHAFRA 12/1

WILLIAM STAR looks formidable to best this field of starters and the big morning line could mean a big score. Don't let a horse with such a formidable winning statistic like this be forgotten. GIRL DRAMA - Considered a solid bet based solely on her high victory figure. Drawing the 5 position at this track has lead to a well above average win figure. NOTROUBLE DECHAFRA - Layoff, schmayoff, this gelding's trainer races starters back ready to roll. More wins than is normal have been recorded by solid standardbreds lining up behind the 6 post at Woodbine.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR FOUR YEAR OLD FILLIES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE DECEMBER 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $10,000 2 LBS. (IF


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 LOU 7/2

# 5 GOBLET OF FIRE 9/5

# 4 MARYBLUEEYES 9/2

LOU is the most competitive wager in this race. Has a very solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this filly. Should be considered in this competition if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. GOBLET OF FIRE - Strong average speed figs in turf route races make this equine a key contender. This trainer has the best ROI in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. MARYBLUEEYES - Has competed solidly in turf route races. Will most likely come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29500 Class Rating: 82

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 19, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 19, 2016 ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 CONQUEST CITY GIRL 7/2

# 3 FIRELIGHT 4/1

# 1 SINGMEALOVESONG 8/1

I give my vote to CONQUEST CITY GIRL here. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 83 speed figure which is one of the best in this field. Rose has recent return on investment figs which make this entrant a good wager. Looks very good to be up near the front end at the first call. FIRELIGHT - Earned a sound speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Reason to like this filly as she has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. SINGMEALOVESONG - Formidable selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. She looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #7 - Post: 9:47pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#2 ALREADY BETTYE (ML=5/1)


ALREADY BETTYE - With a big class drop in class rating points from her Dec 17th race at Charles Town. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. This animal didn't run well on the mud in her last start at Charles Town. You may want to throw out that effort. Have to believe this speed horse has a nice chance on this tight track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. The addition of the 'hood' should keep her mind on business today. Recent speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A REATA'S CORK (ML=8/5), #1 WAGERED (ML=8/5), #3 RUNAWAY CHARITY (ML=9/5),

REATA'S CORK - Hasn't been doing anything at all recently. 8/5 is not offering enough value for any racer in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance race of late. WAGERED - This questionable contender didn't do much last time finishing sixth. Don't expect any betterment in today's event. I can't play this continual non-winner. Gets the job done now and then. Should be difficult for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list. RUNAWAY CHARITY - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite the last two times.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ALREADY BETTYE - At Charles Town on December 17th this mare posted a speed figure of 56 in her last race. She has the best last figure in the field.
*

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 ALREADY BETTYE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 GRACE'S DRAMA (ML=7/2)
#10 STOLEN SUNDAY (ML=15/1)


GRACE'S DRAMA - I expect this horse to astonish some railbirds today. STOLEN SUNDAY - I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill. Horses out of the barn of Cibelli have been great on the grass. Should perform well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ANTHONY LASS (ML=5/2), #11 OPERATIC (ML=9/2), #6 PACHAMANCA (ML=6/1),

ANTHONY LASS - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint affairs in order to wager on her. OPERATIC - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a sprint clash to be any kind of value at short odds in a sprint. 9/2 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent outings. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's event running that number. PACHAMANCA - The finish position of tenth in the last race shows me that this horse may be getting out of condition.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#4 GRACE'S DRAMA to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,5,6,10/10/1,5,6,8/2,5,7,9/1,3,4 = $38.40

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,7,9/1,3,4/3,5/1,5,10 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 1,5,10/5,9/3,6,7/7,8,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 75 - 312 / $428.30 BEST BETS: 12 - 29 / $44.70

SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 28 / $44.20

Best Bet: JIMBELINA (2nd)

Spot Play: JUST A THOUGHT (9th)


Race 1

(6) VASCO BI gets his best chance yet to break his maiden, starting from the middle of the gate vs. a weak group; slight nod. (10) ROYAL INTRIGUE is a half-sister to several decent performers. She could surprise if she stays flat this time. (1) ROAD LIGHT figures to be a threat, but he must get out decently from the tricky inside post. (5) IN FOR ALONG HAUL picks up McNair, which has been the best angle at this meet; using.

Race 2

(10) JIMBELINA got pushed to a very quick 1/2 last week but she stayed game and still almost got the job done. She holds a recency edge on most of the field; top call. (8) STONEBRIDGE PEARL can go better here if she can avoid being first up this time; exacta factor. (2) FRANSCHOEK closed energetically off excess cover last time, but she now has missed five weeks; your call. (1) AMERICAN CURVES is another that figures on paper but also shows a stale date; minor share predicted.

Race 3

(5) XELENE BAYAMA immediately dropped four seconds last May when she shipped from Rideau to Mohawk and switched barns from Filion to Larocque. History could repeat here. (6) SENSELESS BEAUTY was an impressive winner coming off a long break last time; using. (1) TEARFUL OF HAPPY dropped four seconds in four days in her two qualifiers. She is another I think you need on Pick 5 tickets. (8) COLLECTIVE WISDOM was game in defeat last time and she is another that can be dangerous from close range.

Race 4

(9) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL couldn't close into an accelerating late pace last time. She should find the drop back to maidens more to her liking here. (7) ON THE MINUTE MARK qualified sharply for this. She can take these a long way. (5) BALOO SANDS has been on a roll out of town and her good early speed makes her a threat here. (2) ALEXAS LUCK - a full-sister to Little Brown Jug winner Michaels Power - is worth a look here in her debut.

Race 5

(1) I WANNA BE GEARED should be tough dropping back into a claimer here. Expect an early move this time. (4) VITAL SIGN improved when dropped to this level last time. He could be cycling towards a rare win now. (3) WINDSONG LORD wired similar at Flamboro. He isn't out of this. (10) CHEYENNE FORD will be coming late, but it's hard to say if he will be in position to pass them all as they turn for home.

Race 6

(5) GROUPIE DOLL looks like a solid bet to wire these. (3) SUMMIT CITY TURBO, bought by Zeron for himself since his last start, should be a big player here. (9) ANCASTOR SEELSTER has raced great since being claimed and he could drop several seconds here racing on the big track. (8) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE will be closing late, as always.

Race 7

(5) BIG CITY JEWEL showed some late interest in his qualifier and now he adds Lasix. This one has some angles going for him in a race that is very tough to figure; slightest of nods. (1) HOUSE OF TERROR debuts for Baillargeon here, and he too showed late interest racing in the same qualifier as the choice; using. (10) WALTZKING HANOVER has a reasonable shot here if he can beat a few off the gate. (2) LEVY TAYLORE should stick around for a slice, at a minimum.

Race 8

(9) TYMAL WIZARD took a new life's mark racing here in this class two starts back. Racing back on the big track can make all the difference for him. (5) GIRL DRAMA is in good form, but she always needs a bit of luck to pass them all. (8) TOP DOLLAR was well back of the choice most recently, but he can close for a smaller share here. (3) CHIEVOUS COLE is one that can threaten from close range if he can stay flat this time.

Race 9

(6) JUST A THOUGHT should hold a major conditioning advantage here while making his third start in 12 days; top call. (3) FIRST CAR couldn't chase down a strong leader while trying first up at Flamboro, but he projects to get a better trip here; using. (7) FUTOMAKI is another that should get a better trip this time and he retains white-hot driver McNair. (8) BETTIM CHRIS ships in and goes for Moreau here, which makes him worthy of inclusion on vertical bets.

Race 10

(8) CASIMIR PARDON ME has been racing well despite spending a lot of time uncovered on the rim. She should be a top contender here. (7) BOOZER BRUISER woke up in a big way in her past two starts. She should string another good effort together. (9) SR BEACH BABE took a new life's mark here two back now she drops back to that same class; beware. (1) MATTJESTIC TEMPO looks ready to produce a decent effort off the shelf. (2) SOBEAUTIFULSOWHAT looks like one that can sit an inside following trip and come on late for a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 1/19 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 13 - 52 / $72.90

BEST BETS: 2 - 5 / $9.80

Best Bet: AMERICAN VENTURE (6th)

Spot Play: HOOSIER CHATTER (3rd)


Race 1

(8) SHADIOS plummets to the bottom level and can leave 100 mph which should make the outside post no problem. (3) I'M THE REAL MAJOR hasn't put in a bad effort in ages for William Mann. (7) MUSTANG MACH N is clearly a perfect fit at the level but he may not be able to match strides with the top choice early.

Race 2

(2) JARNAC isn't the most prolific winner out there but she should fit well at this level upon returning from The Meadowlands. (3) HOOVES ON FIRST was a nice off-the-pace winner last week; threat. (1) VORST arrives from The Meadows and joins Team Buter while drawing best.

Race 3

(3) HOOSIER CHATTER never wins but has also never faced such a soft field. (1) TWIN B HONOUR had no excuse from the pocket last week but she remains a solid speed threat from the best post with the top driver. (4) KIA KAHA N has looked awful but I have to believe there's more than meets the eye.

Race 4

(1) ENVIOUS HANOVER makes another cross-country trip returning from Cal-Expo off a win and she's been competitive versus better than these in the past. (4) HER OWN LAND raced evenly last week in a needed start and can show more tonight. (6) DUNE IN RED could be an early speed threat and obviously has to leave hard for her best chance.

Race 5

(3) TYLER didn't fire last week but probably needed that start for his new barn; veteran is capable of better. (2) LITTLEBITASWAGGER missed a nose last week for good connections. (5) TENDTOWIN gets a top driver back in the bike off a win at Monticello.

Race 6

(6) AMERICAN VENTURE is another horse returning from California for the Ruiz barn and he's a legit Saturday night-type who is capable of crushing these. (2) DIAMOND COWBOY lands in a better spot in his third start for new connections. (4) PIER HO TEMPTATION was a solid second last week.

Race 7

(4) SANTANNA ONE was a sharp two-move winner last week and he can certainly repeat at what could be a halfway decent price. (5) SKY MCFLY swept impressively from the eight hole last out versus one notch lesser and he'll attract plenty of attention at the windows. (2) WESTERN ALUMNI was Bartlett's choice and draws well enough.

Race 8

(1) SPINARAMA seems to fit with these and should be able to work out a perfect trip from this spot. (8) FASHION DELIGHT debuts for Hudson off the claim looking for two straight; needs an alert getaway. (6) RANGERS SURESHOT saw his four race win streak snapped last out and now has missed time; use underneath.

Race 9

(4) ANALYZE was handled aggressively last week from the eight hole despite missing a month of action and she understandably tired; mare can be tighter tonight. (1) PRINCESS KATIE debuts for new connections via claim and she's in good form while drawing best. (3) PASULTIMATEDELITE N seems to be better than she's been showing.

Race 10

(2) BABY REMIND ME likely needed last week's race where she was in a tough spot; Allard trainee should be ready to roll tonight. (3) MACHO CHICK is a good fit at this level and draws well enough. (5) BROWN BRINNY is back on consecutive weeks off a decent effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Charles Town (4th) Minnie Ball, 5-1
(9th) The Squire, 4-1


Delta Downs (1st) Shesatopattraction, 6-1
(10th) Lady Friend, 4-1


Fair Grounds (2nd) Lou, 7-2
(5th) Sweet Halory, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (7th) Wilshire Star, 7-2
(8th) Bajan Rhythm, 4-1


Oaklawn Park (3rd) J P of Galilee, 5-1
(5th) Sheridan’s Bling, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Captured, 4-1
(6th) Svindahl, 9-2


Turfway Park (2nd) Relentless Spirit, 7-2
(6th) Stay on Shore, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s six-pack

— South Carolina 57, Florida 53— Gators were 0-17 behind the arc.

— Upsets of the Night: Oklahoma (+17) 89, West Virginia 87 OT……and Fordham (+11.5) 69, VCU 67.

— Auburn 78, LSU 74— Bruce Pearl gets his 500th coaching win.

— Pacers 106, Kings 100— Sacramento’s Rudy Gay tore his achilles tendon.

— Florida State 83, Notre Dame 80— First ACC loss for the Irish.

— Washington 85, Colorado 83 OT— Fun game to watch, but some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen played. Seriously, just terrible defense by both teams. Buffs led by 17 in second half.