Florida (32-35) at Boston (40-25)
The streaking Red Sox send left-hander Jon Lester (5-5, 4.76 ERA) to the hill at Fenway Park to wrap up a three-game interleague series with the Marlins, who are scheduled to counter with right-hander Ricky Nolasco (2-6, 7.62).
Boston has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 8-2 and 6-1 and has now won seven of its last eight overall and five straight at home to surge into first place in the American League East. The Red Sox, who now have the best record in the A.L., are on additional runs of 12-3 overall, 57-19 in interleague play, 40-12 in interleague home contests, 41-14 on Thursday and a lengthy 88-37 at Fenway.
The Marlins, who had won three in a row entering this series, are now just 8-19 in their last 27 games as an underdog. They have fared well against southpaws, with current streaks of 6-1 overall and 14-5 on the road.
The Red Sox have now won five of the last six in this interleague rivalry and five of the last six in Boston.
With Lester on the hill, Boston has won three in a row and eight of 11, including a 5-2 victory at Philadelphia on Friday night in which the lefty allowed just two hits, two walks and one run while striking out 11 in seven innings. That effort followed a complete-game, 8-1 home win over Texas. Lester, who has given up exactly one run in three straight starts and four of his last five, is 3-2 with 4.06 ERA in six home starts this season.
The Sox are on further runs behind Lester of 6-0 against the National League East, 8-1 in interleague play and 24-5 at home. In Lester’s lone career start against Florida in 2006, he surrendered two runs on seven hits in five innings, getting a no-decision in Boston’s 4-3 victory in South Beach.
Florida is 2-4 in Nolasco’s last six starts, with the righty going 1-4 and getting pounded for 28 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings (7.95 ERA). However, since returning from a brief demotion to Triple-A, Nolasco has been much more effective, allowing just four earned runs in 13 innings in two starts. On Friday at Toronto, he gave up two runs on five hits and a walk, striking out nine over six innings in a 7-3 victory.
Despite the strong outing in Toronto, Nolasco is still only 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA in seven road starts this year, and this is his first career meeting with Boston. With Nolasco throwing, the Marlins are on slides of 1-5 overall against winning teams and 1-4 on the road against winning teams.
The under for Boston is on tears of 21-7-3 overall, 6-0-2 at home, 4-1 with Lester starting, 6-0-1 with Lester going on five days’ rest and 5-1 behind the lefty in interleague action. On the flip side, the over for Miami is on rolls of 5-1-1 overall, 21-6-5 in interleague action, 7-1-2 in interleague roadies, 9-2 behind Nolasco this season and 6-0 with the righty throwing on the road.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on upticks of 5-3-1 overall and 4-1-1 in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Detroit (34-31) at St. Louis (36-30)
The Tigers wrap up an 11-game road trip by trotting out upstart rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (7-4, 3.71 ERA) as they try to avoid getting swept by the Cardinals, who will hand the ball to fellow righty Joel Pineiro (5-7, 3.99).
Detroit got pounded 11-2 Tuesday in the series opener, then came back Wednesday and fell 4-3. The Tigers have dropped four in a row and are now 4-6 on their current road trip, scoring a total of 19 runs in their last seven games. Despite the recent struggles, Detroit remains on hot streaks of 45-21 in interleague play, 13-8 in interleague road games and 23-13 against the N.L. Central.
Prior to taking the first two games of this series, the Redbirds had lost seven of nine overall and four straight at home. They’re now 11-3 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record, and they’ve won 11 consecutive Thursday contests.
Going back to the start of the 2006 season, the home team has won 14 of the last 16 head-to-head clashes in this rivalry, including the World Series.
Detroit has won seven of Porcello’s last eight starts, including a 3-1 victory Friday at Pittsburgh in which the 20-year-old allowed one run on six hits and a walk in seven innings. Porcello has gone 6-1 with a 2.52 ERA in those eight games, throwing 46 1/3 innings. He is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA in six road starts this season, and the Tigers have won four of his last five on the highway.
The Cardinals have lost four in a row behind Pineiro, mostly due to poor run support, with St. Louis scoring just nine total runs in that span. On Friday at Cleveland, the 30-year-old yielded three runs on seven hits and two walks in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-3 loss. Pineiro is 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA in five home starts this year, and he’s a solid 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against the Tigers.
St. Louis is 5-2 in Pineiro’s last seven outings at Busch, but it has also come up empty in the rigthy’s last five interleague starts.
The Tigers are on a bundle of “under” streaks, including 21-8 overall, 5-2 on the road, 12-4-1 in interleague road games and 22-7 against right-handed starters. Also, St. Louis is on “under” tears of 11-5 at home, 15-7-1 against right-handed starters, 6-1-1 against the American League and 7-1 in interleague home games. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven Tigers-Cardinals meetings at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
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