Adding: Hawaii -8 -120 (reasons why are in Co-Captain's thread).
Although I have cost this place plenty with late additions I feel pretty good about this one tonight. And since I have some time I figured I'd throw out why I like my plays tonight (even though one has already started):
Louisville -3
Cards 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS on the road while the Niners are 7-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS at home. Charlotte shoots better from the field but that's about it for their advantages. Louisville plays better defense (teams shooting just 36 percent against them) and shoots better from 3 point range and from the charity stripe (9 percent better at the line). The Cards also edge out the Niners in rebounding and are 4-0-1 L5 ATS against Charlotte. The Niners have played better recently but I think the Cards are past the problems they had with Coach Pitino's absence and I think the problems are now in UNCC's court with G Demon Brown and the off-court issues. I think the Cards get well here. RPI 0.6554 (5th) for Louisville vs 0.6059 (34th) for Charlotte and Massey Schedule Strength of 30.67 (33rd) for LV vs 30.28 (38th) for Charlotte. Enough little things to put me on the road fav.
Gonzaga -13
This one looks good. Zags 12-6-2 ATS overall/5-3-1 ATS on the road while the Dons are just 7-13 ATS overall/3-4 ATS at home. Zags average 21 points/game more than the Dons and both teams give up about the same defensively. Zags are shooting 51.5 percent/game and allowing teams to shoot 38 percent against them while the Dons are actually allowing teams to shoot 5 percent better than they do. There are gigantic differences in 3 point shooting (41 to 32 percent), free throw shooting (75 to 62 percent) and rebounding (by 9 boards/game) all decisive to the Zags. Zags have covered 8 of the last 10 ATS against SF and the last 4 at SF. The Zags hammered these bums by 42 points about 3 weeks ago and only giving 13 to me is a blessing. Zags RPI 0.6355 (14th) vs Dons 0.5266 (113th) and Massey Schedule Strength for Gonzaga 31.20 (25th toughest) vs USF's 26.74 (104th toughest). Way too much ammo going against the Dons tonight to not Zig-Zag.
For even more Zag stuff I'll add a Covers article for easy reading. I won't comment on the Wake/Clemson game since it's already on-going. At least this will give some people more of an idea how I ended up with these plays. Good luck tonight!
sb
'Zaga the Godfather of the Dons
Johnston Farrow
Forget the trolleys, Alcatraz and the Golden Gate Bridge. The No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs like trips to San Francisco because that's where they win.
Gonzaga has beaten the San Francisco Dons 18 times out of the last 20 meetings and the 'Zags are 8-2 ATS over the last 10 against 'Frisco. The last time the Dons wrestled the Bulldogs to a defeat at home was in 1997.
The stats are all for Gonzaga in this matchup. The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU on the road and 8-0 in conference action this season. 'Zaga are winners of the last 12 games SU at 7-4-2 ATS in that span.
The once little known team from Washington state scores over 21 points more than San Francisco per game. The Zags score 83.8 points to the 62 put up by the Dons.
The only teams the Bulldogs have lost to are undefeated St. Joseph's and undefeated Stanford.
The Dons' major problem is they give up more fouls and can't hit free throws when they get to the line. West Coast Conference opponents get 21.4 free throw attempts from the line while the Dons only have 14.7 attempts. When they do get a chance, they score 57.6 percent from the line.
Gonzaga has the added motivation of winning the WCC if they beat San Fran and St. Mary's College later this week.
Oddsmakers list Gonzaga as 12 1/2-point road favorites and a total set at 139 1/2.
Gozaga last beat Loyola-Marymount by 30 points and covered a 25 1/2 spread. The Dons could only manage a 12-point victory over Loyola-Marymount.
