I guess I was a little bit lucky with this one but anyways, thanks for the props guys. I'm back home now and I have some spare time to post the writeup for my second (last) play of the day. Good luck all.
ANA @ NYY over 10.5 -127
(I'm laying the wood here only because I won my first bet of the day, so it feels like a Bonus Bet, but for those of you who don't like to lay big wood on totals, there are quite a few 11's out there for a better price)
OK, I don't need to tell you that any one of these two teams are capable of reaching this total by themselves. Especially the Yankees, as they did it 4 times in last 9 games. Both pitchers are having hard time facing a lineup for the first time of the season, as evidenced by Lackey's 11ER in 10.1 IP (compared to 4ER/10 IP the second time around against the same team) and Brown's 11ER in 12 IP ytd. Both pitchers historically struggle in their first start against today's opponents as well. Lackey is 0-3 in his first starts of the season against NYY, allowing 16ER/17.2 ip and Brown is 2-2 in his last 4 first starts of the season against LAA, allowing 16ER/24 IP. It really looks like Brown has lost it, as he opened this season the same way he closed last one. He allowed 19ER/15.1 IP in his last four starts (first two this year and last two from last year) and Lackey's only solid start in last 5, came last week, at home, against the offensively challenged A's. Joe West is the HPU and he has been a 59% 'over' ump the past two years. Both Lackey and Brown have very bad MOB and opp. OPS stats and they both face two of the very best offenses in the AL today. These two teams combine for just under 12 R/9Inn against righties this year, compared to only 8 against the lefties. Finally, according to covers.com, the winds are expected to be about 17mph W, and again, according to covers.com stats, the 'over' is 9-1 since '99 when we have that kind of winds.
GL all,
WS