Thru 5 games....

[NumberFreak]

This is where we stand based on historical probabilities.

Teams with a 3-2 series lead following a HHAAH venue format in the Finals are 12-8 in Game 6 and 19-1 in the series. This includes 13-straight series wins. The only loss was 1971 when Montreal came back to beat Chicago.


In all rounds, teams following a WWLLW pattern have won 25 consecutive series'. The last loss was the NY Islanders losing to Toronto in 1978.


Combining the most specific pattern of HHAAH and WWLLW, teams leading the series are 69% (3-4 in the Finals) in Game 6 and 88% (6-1 in the Finals) to win the series.



Knowing the above numbers, I'm still thinking of hedging my series bet on the Wings because it's too large to have it come down to a Game 7....20.6 units to win 10 @ -206 before Game 2. Sigh....what to do.

 

[powerz]

let it ride freak - I wonder if we would still be playing if Pavel had of played the whole series

 

[TuArmedMan]

I've got a decision to make as well. I've gone very large on Wings for Series due to a mistake by my book. I've got 20 units (to win at -145) and am deciding what to do. I could buy it all back and risk equal amount on Pitt and assure some positive cash, could wait until after game 6 hoping Wings win knowing that I could still buy out of game 7 with a similar line to what I have now, or ride it out.

 

[NumberFreak]

I've got a decision to make as well. I've gone very large on Wings for Series due to a mistake by my book. I've got 20 units (to win at -145) and am deciding what to do. I could buy it all back and risk equal amount on Pitt and assure some positive cash, could wait until after game 6 hoping Wings win knowing that I could still buy out of game 7 with a similar line to what I have now, or ride it out.

Yeah, you have much more flexibility at -145 by getting to see that Game 6. If I hedge, I have to do it before G6 or take a small loss after it. I just don't see risking 20 units on a winner-take-all G7 being very wise, despite the strong history for Detroit.

 

[MSUSpartans]

Let it ride man. If it goes 7 games, which I dont think it will, you can buy back on the Penguins because they'll be plus money for game 7.

 

[NumberFreak]

Right, but I'm at -206 on my Wings bet so I'd lose a little hedging before G7. On the flip side I can get Pitt around +365 for the series right now for a hedge. I can lock up 4 units on Detroit and 1 on Pitt guaranteed, then if it goes seven I can throw more on the Wings at smaller money.

What has me doubting the Wings winning in 6 is this stat I gave above:

Combining the most specific pattern of HHAAH and WWLLW, teams leading the series are 69% (3-4 in the Finals) in Game 6 and 88% (6-1 in the Finals) to win the series.

In other words, Finals series' that all home teams have won thru 5 have a better chance of going 7 than not. Granted, Detroit led 2-1 in both road games and Pitt has gotten smoked in Motown.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I got +242.85 for the Wings to win the series at The Greek. Thinking I'll just let it ride rather than hedge.

 

[billhill999]

Thinking I'll just let it ride rather than hedge.

And that's the correct thing to do.
Detroit is clearly the better team, and if the refs let them play, this series would be 3-1 Wing.

 

[HawkN-Flight]

Right, but I'm at -206 on my Wings bet so I'd lose a little hedging before G7. On the flip side I can get Pitt around +365 for the series right now for a hedge. I can lock up 4 units on Detroit and 1 on Pitt guaranteed, then if it goes seven I can throw more on the Wings at smaller money.

What has me doubting the Wings winning in 6 is this stat I gave above:


In other words, Finals series' that all home teams have won thru 5 have a better chance of going 7 than not. Granted, Detroit led 2-1 in both road games and Pitt has gotten smoked in Motown.

Hedging gets difficult if it goes to seven games cuz you layed 2 to 1 on the series. Det most likely would be a 160 favorite in a game 7. You would be laying 40 cents more in game 7 scenario.
If you hedge Pit +365 for 3 units. You stack up at risk should it goes a game 7 . 7 units for roughly a 1000 and your in line to hedge more with game 7 odds should you choose to.

Having said that, I think the wings win it. GL with how you play it.