FLORIDA +1.30 over Atlanta (SIA)According to the experts the Marlins were supposed to lose about 150 games this season but they’ve been anything but pushovers. This is a feisty, young Marlin team with some decent talent and tonight’s pitcher, Josh Johnson, has been one of this year’s best-kept secrets. At Fish Stadium, Johnson is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.04. Overall, he’s 4-4 with an ERA of 2.11 and the opposition is hitting a puny .192 against him. He’s allowed just 38 hits and two jacks in 55 innings of work and over his last eight starts he’s allowed two runs or fewer seven times and the other game he allowed just three earned runs. There’s not a pitcher in the majors that has prettier numbers than that and if this guy were wearing different gear he’d be about a –1.30 favorite tonight. Furthermore, the Marlins are 12-6 in their last 18 games while the Braves have dropped 11 of their past 14 games and during that span they’ve scored 57 runs. That’s about two runs a game over a 14-game stretch and that’s pretty ugly. John Smoltz has allowed 14 hits and seven runs over his last 14 innings so he hasn’t been sharp lately either. Anyway, the bottom line here is value and no way should the Braves be this big a price over Johnson and the Marlins. Play: Florida +1.30 (Risking 1.5 units).
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Cleveland +1.30 over NY YANKEES (SIA)
The “due to win” theory is about the most ludicrous and bankroll killing theory we’ve ever heard and after losing four straight at home the Yanks aren’t due to win anything. Actually, the Yanks are due for something; they’re due to allow 10 runs or more in a ball game because it’s only been six games since that happened and with that pathetic bullpen it’s bound to happen again soon enough. Chien Ming Wang, in 81 frames has walked 21 and struck out 29, meaning the hitters are seeing the ball well off him. That bodes well here for the Tribe, who have scored 10 runs or more in each of their last four victories. The opposition is hitting .280 off Wang and despite beating the Red Sox in is last start he hasn’t looked particularly sharp in is last five outings. Paul Byrd will go for the Indians and he has been very sharp in seven of his last eight starts, allowing only the White Sox to batter him over that stretch. Indians a very dangerous pooch, especially against some shaky pitching like they’ll face here. Play: Cleveland +1.30 (Risking 1.5 units).
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Tampa Bay +2.20 over Detroit (SIA)
Price here has definite influence on this choice but don’t think that the D-Rays have no shot here because they do. First, laying 2½-1 on any pitcher that’s over the age of 40 is a risk never worth taking. Kenny Rogers is having a very good year but it’s not like he’s been lights out. He’s very capable of getting smacked just like every other 41-year-old on the planet. Rogers went 0-2 against the Devil Rays last year with an ERA of 6.00 and while we seldom put any emphasis on past history, that fact is definitely worth noting with a tag of +2.20. What really looks ugly for the Devil Rays is tonight’s starter, Seth McClung. His numbers are brutal but he’s not nearly as bad as they suggest. McClung has very good stuff and if he can throw strikes and get ahead he’s no pushover. Comerica Park has a way of getting struggling pitchers right-sided and McClung has faired well over the Tigers going 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA. Anyway, when we can get a tag of +2.20 against any 41-year-old, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Tampa Bay +2.20 (Risking 1.5 units).
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Cleveland +1.30 over NY YANKEES (SIA)
The “due to win” theory is about the most ludicrous and bankroll killing theory we’ve ever heard and after losing four straight at home the Yanks aren’t due to win anything. Actually, the Yanks are due for something; they’re due to allow 10 runs or more in a ball game because it’s only been six games since that happened and with that pathetic bullpen it’s bound to happen again soon enough. Chien Ming Wang, in 81 frames has walked 21 and struck out 29, meaning the hitters are seeing the ball well off him. That bodes well here for the Tribe, who have scored 10 runs or more in each of their last four victories. The opposition is hitting .280 off Wang and despite beating the Red Sox in is last start he hasn’t looked particularly sharp in is last five outings. Paul Byrd will go for the Indians and he has been very sharp in seven of his last eight starts, allowing only the White Sox to batter him over that stretch. Indians a very dangerous pooch, especially against some shaky pitching like they’ll face here. Play: Cleveland +1.30 (Risking 1.5 units).
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></o>Tampa Bay +2.20 over Detroit (SIA)
Price here has definite influence on this choice but don’t think that the D-Rays have no shot here because they do. First, laying 2½-1 on any pitcher that’s over the age of 40 is a risk never worth taking. Kenny Rogers is having a very good year but it’s not like he’s been lights out. He’s very capable of getting smacked just like every other 41-year-old on the planet. Rogers went 0-2 against the Devil Rays last year with an ERA of 6.00 and while we seldom put any emphasis on past history, that fact is definitely worth noting with a tag of +2.20. What really looks ugly for the Devil Rays is tonight’s starter, Seth McClung. His numbers are brutal but he’s not nearly as bad as they suggest. McClung has very good stuff and if he can throw strikes and get ahead he’s no pushover. Comerica Park has a way of getting struggling pitchers right-sided and McClung has faired well over the Tigers going 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA. Anyway, when we can get a tag of +2.20 against any 41-year-old, we’ll gladly take our chances. Play: Tampa Bay +2.20 (Risking 1.5 units).
