three today with analysis

[sherwood]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+2.14 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">29</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">33</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+1.56 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">56</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">65</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">6</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.30 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

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Chicago +1.76 over L.A. ANGELS
This is just a beautiful price on the South Side here. The Angels are heavily favored based on Jered Weaver’s success and Gavin Floyd’s lack of. However, the time is right for Weaver to be exposed as just an ordinary pitcher with a lot of fortune and for Floyd to return to the form that saw him have great success last season. As for Weaver, well ESPN.com reports it best as this is what they wrote: “His 2.52 ERA is tied with Roy Halladay's for second in the American League, and his 1.07 WHIP is third in the AL. However, he has a scary strand rate -- 85.4 percent -- and a BABIP, at .250, ninth lowest in the majors. He's as much a fly-ball pitcher as ever (50.6 percent of batted balls against him are fly balls), and his latest outing against the Dodgers featured Weaver's old bugaboo: inefficient pitch counts that get him out of games early. There's no question that Weaver has been a good story but the smart money says watch out." Meanwhile, Floyd was brilliant in his last start against the Pirates and that could be the confidence boost he needed. He threw eight shutout innings, struck out eight and walked two. Remember, he was a 17-game winner last year with a very respectable 3.84 ERA and a .241 BAA. The White Sox are warming up with wins in six of its last eight and that includes the first two of this series. We get some great value here on an under-priced Gavid Floyd going against an overpriced Jered Weaver. Play: Chicago +1.76 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.09 over Florida
The Marlins have called up Burke Badenhop for this one and manager Fredi Gonzalez insists that Badenhop will be on a strict 65-70-pitch count. In other words he might get through two innings. This is a guy that’s been belted around in the majors as both a reliever and a starter, as he’s appeared in 24 major-league games, 16 of them as a reliever. On the road this year, all in relief, he’s appeared in five games and has an ERA of 10.13 and a BAA of .385. Now he’s being thrown into the starter’s role in one of the most difficult parks in the league for struggling pitchers and his chances of success are about 30-1 against. In addition, the Marlins pen, which is going to get plenty of work here, is worthless and inefficient, as collectively they continue to serve up batting practice. The Marlins hot start was indeed an aberration, as this guest can’t get out of its own way right now and one has to wonder how they’re going to stay in this game. They’re not, that’s how. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Detroit –1.06 over KANSAS CITY (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
You can rest assured that Kyle Davies is very uncomfortable pitching against the Tigers. He’s 1-5 with a 5.68 ERA in his career against them and this year he allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings vs the Tigers. Davies is a career stiff that has appeared in 93 major-league games and over that span he has a 1.61 WHIP to go along with a career 5.53 ERA. In five home starts this season his ERA is 7.17 and his BAA is .319. Davies offers up very little and you can times that by 10 when facing the Tigers. Davies is coming off three quality starts, which makes him even less appealing, as he’s never been able to string together quality starts for this long before and an implosion is just sitting there waiting to happen. Rick Porcello looks great. He has filthy stuff and the result has been four straight starts in which he’s allowed one earned run or less. Porcello is a confident guy right now and he’s throwing everything in his repertoire for strikes. The Tigers pen cannot be trusted, thus the five inning bet. Play: Detroit –1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). <o></o>

 

[barman]

White Sox entered this week with real struggles After a Win, but we can't disagree that the +178 makes for a very fair spot

Unfortunately (or not) using them in a 2TP with KC....So if your forecast is closer than mine, I can come back this evening and reuse the Chisox selection in a different wager

Thanks for the thread post

 

[namathfan]

Great write-ups as usual, thanks for sharing.

 

[ZJP6050]

love philly here

 

[BstonBruin]

Love the Philly run line as well...the Philly team total over 5 (-130) is a pretty good bet as well imo

 

[BoutMyMoney]

good luck sherwood.. nice write ups

 

[Coaster]

3 in the top of 5 was very sweet.
Had a look at Tiggers TT over but passed until after I read your write..............bonus.
Thanxs

 

[sherwood]

Thank you and for those interested, the Lakers/Nuggets under tonight offers up some great value too:

The last game was sitting on 143 entering the fourth quarter and then 76 points were scored in the fourth to push it over the total. Anyone that watched that game knows the 76 points were about as fluky as it gets. In fact, the teamswere at 165 with 7 minutes to go and than the refs started calling fouls on every drive and shot to the basket. Anyway, that rewsult influences this line way more than it should.

Also consider that both teams are now very familiar with each others playbook and both will adjust defensively, especially the Lakers, who allowed the Nuggets to crash the boards on them and get a ton of second chance points. That won't happen again tonight. It'll be one and done for the most part when the Nuggets miss.

Perhaps the biggest edge of all is one that is not being factored into this line, and that is the effect of what playing at the altitude of Denver can do this late in a season. This is going to be the third time this season that a series in which there were back-to-back games in the Mile High city, and then a venue change with only one day off. The difference in shooting in Game #3 of the Dallas and New Orleans series was absolutely striking. Without going into detail those games produced a collective 41.5 percent from the field, compared to 49.5 for all other games in those two sets. And note that those were games played not only earlier in the playoffs when all teams were a little fresher, but also earlier in each series, with a much lower degree of pressure. Now it is Game #5 with two teams that both look a bit weary, which is what led to some sloppy Game #4 execution, and one has to believe the heavy minutes being played by the key contributors is going to show in a major way tonight and when it does it will be in the form of low levels of offensive execution.

Only one game of this series has gone above tonight’s posted total, and that was Monday’s affair that in reality was not going to be that close until the officials let things get out of hand. This game should bring the slowest pace and the lowest level of offensive efficiency we have seen so far, and that means a substantial edge at this price.

Play it under. Good luck.