HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Washington +1.23 over CINCINNATI
I’m no rocket scientist but one thing I can tell you for sure is that Josh Fogg shouldn’t be a -1.33 favorite over any pitcher or team in the majors. In fact, Fogg will make this start because Aaron Harang cannot and right afterwards Fogg will be back where he belongs, that is in the pen or cleaning the shower stalls. He’s a middle relief man (AKA as mop up) and he’s not effective in that role either. He’s been on the DL for a month, the league is hitting .325 off him, his ERA is 9.85, he’s allowed seven bombs in 28 frames, his ERA at home is 11.28, he hasn’t struck out a single man in his last four appearances and the list goes on and on. The bottom line here is value and even though the Nationals are a weak squad they still win games (4-5 in their last nine) and this is one they can surely pull off. Play: Washington +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Boston +1.20 over NY YANKEES
The Yanks continue to struggle with five losses in their last six games and nine losses in their last 14 and the only reason they’re three games over .500 is because they went on a roll against weaker NL teams. As soon as they returned to playing the AL they lost two of three to the Rangers and the first two games of this series. Now Mike Mussina is favored over Justin Masterson and there is no logic to that whatsoever. For one, the Yanks have never seen Masterson while the Red Sox have seen Mussina about a 1000 times. Advantage Boston. Furthermore, Masterson has allowed just 34 hits in 48 frames and has pitched at least six full innings in seven of his last eight starts. Actually, Mussina has faced the Red Sox 54 times in his career but it’s his most recent outings against them that interests us. In his last four starts against the Red Sox, he’s 0-3 with a 9.30 ERA, including a pair of losses against them in April. The pressure on the Yanks is getting worse with each passing day while the Red Sox are loving this series and you get the sense that Boston just knows they’re going to win. We’d be very surprised if they didn’t. Definite overlay. Play: Boston +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Oakland/CHICAGO under 8½ +1.05
These two both have some serious offensive issues and with Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko all on the rack and with two solid pitchers going, we just don’t envision nine runs in this one. Greg Smith has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts and 10 of his last 11 starts have gone under the total. The league is hitting a puny .228 off him. It’s also worth noting that the White Sox struggled at the plate against Joe Blanton yesterday and have now struggled offensively in three of their last four games. Offensive struggles usually will snowball and last a few games or even weeks and it would appear that’s the direction the South Side is headed. The A’s are just a weak offensive team, period. That bodes well here for Gavin Floyd for a number of reasons. First, the A’s have never seen him and secondly, Floyd is 6-1 with a 2.87 ERA in nine starts at U.S. Cellular Field. Nine runs? We don’t think so. Play: Oakland/Chicago under 8½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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WIMBLEDON FINALS
Rafael Nadal +110 over Roger Federer
Sun 9 a.m. ET<o
></o><o
></o>This one is for the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Singles Championship and is between five-in-a-row winner, Roger Federer, and two-time runner-up, Rafael Nadal.<o
></o>Federer is chasing history here but I do not see him being able to pull it off against this juggernaut that goes by the name of Rafael “Rafa” Nadal. In last year’s final, Nadal was a break point away from going home with the trophy and lost a heartbreaking five-setter to Federer but that was then and this is now. Since that time, the young Spaniard has continued to improve and his grass game is now top notch as well.<o
></o><o
></o>A few weeks ago, Nadal literally destroyed Federer in the Finals of the French Open in a three set blowout with scores of 6-1 6-3 6-0. It was a humiliating and shocking defeat for Federer and being the gentleman and ‘class-act’ that he is, Nadal actually apologized afterwards; such was the magnitude of the pounding Federer absorbed. Tennis is a large part ‘mental’ and that defeat has to raise a lot of doubt in Federer’s mind coming into this final. His body language was downtrodden at Roland Garros and it was like he was thinking, ‘whatever I have is not good enough’. Roger, although a straight sets winner over Safin, had to win the second set by tie breaker and luckily for him, he broke serve early in the first to grab the momentum away from Safin. He won the last set 6-4 but did not get the break until the end. So the match was a lot closer than the 3 sets to love score indicates. Even against Mario Ancic, the second set was 7-5 and the third 6-4…and can you really say Ancic’s or Safin’s name in the same sentence as Nadal?! <o
></o><o
></o>‘Rafa’ has dominated Federer lately in head-to-head match-ups and that last drubbing he administered in the French Open had to have an effect on Federer’s psyche. You don’t go down in a major final against a nemesis 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 and NOT remember it...and it’s not like Nadal deliberately chose to humiliate him, either!<o
></o><o
></o>Nadal is some 5 years younger and seems to love the grass surface, too, which spells big trouble for the aging champ, Roger. Nadal is a very strong play for us and I would be shocked to see Federer, who has not looked like his old self all year, be able to take down and stop Nadal, the 4-time French Open singles champion. I believe there is a proverbial ‘changing of the guard’ that’s taking place and I don’t see how this final will be much different than the one in Paris a few weeks back. It should be more of the same and I don’t see Roger winning a set this time, either. Nadal grabs his first Wimbledon and we get to visit the cashier! Play: Rafael Nadal +110 (Risking 2 units)
