Not much offense expected in Toronto
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<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH"><dt>robert - Subscriber since 10/09/2005</dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 6, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
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Marcum
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Duchscherer
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Duel in Toronto
There may not be many baserunners when the Blue Jays host the A's on Wednesday. Shaun Marcum has struggled in two starts since his return from the disabled list, but has been great at home this year and pitched brilliantly the previous time he faced Oakland, allowing one run in seven innings April 10. He'll be opposed by Justin Duchscherer, who currently leads the American League in ERA and WHIP. Here are a few things to keep an eye on: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Duchscherer vs. Marcum</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Best pitch</td> <td>Duchscherer's breaking pitches are nasty, but his curveball has been particularly tough. Opponents have a .176 batting average and .088 well-hit average against his curve this season.</td> <td>All of his off-speed stuff is strong. However, batters are hitting just .213 off of his changeup, and he throws it 24 percent of the time. He also has great control of it, throwing 69 percent for strikes.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Trouble pitch</td> <td>If you can call a .230 batting average against a trouble pitch, then his fastball has been trouble. He needs to keep it out of the middle of the zone, where opponents are hitting .294 against it and have belted three homers.</td> <td>His off-speed stuff is so dominant, that any time he throws his fastball hitters have a better chance. Opponents have a well-hit average of .314 against his fastball. All of Marcum's off-speed stuff has batters hitting below .200.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitch most likely to be chased </td> <td>Not surprisingly, it's his curveball. Batters chase it out of the zone 28 percent of the time, and miss 60 percent of the ones they chase.</td> <td>At 29 percent, Marcum has one of the best chase percentages in baseball. His most-chased pitch, however, is his changeup, at a whopping 47 percent.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Favorite fastball location </td> <td>It's down-and-away. He throws 26 percent of his fastballs down and away to hitters, and they are batting a just .125 against them. He has yet to surrender an extra-base hit this season off a down-and-away fastball.</td> <td>Marcum throws his fastball down-and-away the most. But his most effective fastball location is middle-up, where opponents have yet to get a hit against him this year. He has permitted only two hits off up-and-away fastballs.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Overmatched hitters</td> <td>Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay are a combined 0-for-8 lifetime against him with three strikeouts.</td> <td>In 11 career plate appearances, Emil Brown and Bobby Crosby have one hit and five strikeouts.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Among starting pitchers, Duchscherer has the second-lowest on base percentage against (.260) in the majors this season, while Marcum is not far behind in sixth (.282). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Sowers
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Kazmir
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Expect Rays and Indians to hit in middle innings
Jeremy Sowers enters Wednesday's start against the Rays with an unimpressive 5.82 ERA and 1-6 record. Interestingly, Sowers has been outstanding early in games. He just can't seem to throw well for long. Opponents are hitting only .237 against the Indians' lefty through his first 45 pitches of the game, but are batting .353 once he goes beyond the 45-pitch mark.
Of the 176 at-bats ending on a fastball from Sowers this season, 39 percent have ended on pitches at the belt (middle third of the strike zone). League batting averages and slugging percentages are drastically higher on belt-high fastballs than they are on ones at the knees and above the waist. Sowers has avoided the exact heart of the zone (middle-middle) early in games, but not as the game progresses: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Sowers' belt-high fastballs (pct. located middle, in, away)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>AB ending location</td> <td>First 45 pitches</td> <td>After 45 pitches</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle of plate</td> <td>18.8</td> <td>38.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Inner third</td> <td>31.3</td> <td>38.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Outer third</td> <td>50.0</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Perhaps Wednesday's opposing pitcher, the Rays' Scott Kazmir, can relate to Sowers. Kazmir has also seen a big spike in opponent average after 45 pitches, from a stellar .144 BA against before his 45th pitch to .264 after. Hitters have sat on Kazmir's changeup the more they see it: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Kazmir's changeup</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>First 45 pitches</td> <td>After 45 pitches</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.067</td> <td>.419</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.133 </td> <td>.710 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Expect the offense to pick up in the middle innings as pitch counts rise Wednesday in Tampa. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Bailey
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Bailey struggling to finish batters off
Former top prospect Homer Bailey has struggled to make the transition to the big leagues. Since being recalled from the minors just before the All-Star break, Bailey, still only 22, has allowed 35 hits in 18 2/3 innings. Last year, Bailey's big problem was falling behind early in at-bats and being forced to throw fastballs in hitters' counts. This season, he has thrown early strikes at rates near or above league average: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey's strike pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Count</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0-0</td> <td>54.6</td> <td>55.5</td> <td>60.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-1</td> <td>50.5</td> <td>59.1</td> <td>57.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>1-0</td> <td>57.0</td> <td>64.7</td> <td>64.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>1-1</td> <td>56.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>63.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> But he has struggled to finish batters off when he does get two strikes. Not only is Bailey striking out few batters -- he has just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings this season -- he's yielding a lot of two-strike hits: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey in two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of PA's ending in outs</td> <td>69.1</td> <td>60.9</td> <td>74.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>29.8</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>36.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.198</td> <td>.373</td> <td>.187</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.272</td> <td>.644</td> <td>.284</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Bailey's strikeout pitch is his fastball, and batters just haven't missed it often this season. One reason is that he has been around the zone more often: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey's fastball in two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Season</td> <td>Pct. in-zone</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>51.1</td> <td>.164</td> <td>21.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>60.0</td> <td>.389</td> <td>8.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Look to see if Bailey can close out against the Brewers, who have 841 strikeouts, fifth-most in the league.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH"><dt>robert - Subscriber since 10/09/2005</dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 6, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Duel in Toronto
There may not be many baserunners when the Blue Jays host the A's on Wednesday. Shaun Marcum has struggled in two starts since his return from the disabled list, but has been great at home this year and pitched brilliantly the previous time he faced Oakland, allowing one run in seven innings April 10. He'll be opposed by Justin Duchscherer, who currently leads the American League in ERA and WHIP. Here are a few things to keep an eye on: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Duchscherer vs. Marcum</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Best pitch</td> <td>Duchscherer's breaking pitches are nasty, but his curveball has been particularly tough. Opponents have a .176 batting average and .088 well-hit average against his curve this season.</td> <td>All of his off-speed stuff is strong. However, batters are hitting just .213 off of his changeup, and he throws it 24 percent of the time. He also has great control of it, throwing 69 percent for strikes.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Trouble pitch</td> <td>If you can call a .230 batting average against a trouble pitch, then his fastball has been trouble. He needs to keep it out of the middle of the zone, where opponents are hitting .294 against it and have belted three homers.</td> <td>His off-speed stuff is so dominant, that any time he throws his fastball hitters have a better chance. Opponents have a well-hit average of .314 against his fastball. All of Marcum's off-speed stuff has batters hitting below .200.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitch most likely to be chased </td> <td>Not surprisingly, it's his curveball. Batters chase it out of the zone 28 percent of the time, and miss 60 percent of the ones they chase.</td> <td>At 29 percent, Marcum has one of the best chase percentages in baseball. His most-chased pitch, however, is his changeup, at a whopping 47 percent.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Favorite fastball location </td> <td>It's down-and-away. He throws 26 percent of his fastballs down and away to hitters, and they are batting a just .125 against them. He has yet to surrender an extra-base hit this season off a down-and-away fastball.</td> <td>Marcum throws his fastball down-and-away the most. But his most effective fastball location is middle-up, where opponents have yet to get a hit against him this year. He has permitted only two hits off up-and-away fastballs.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Overmatched hitters</td> <td>Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay are a combined 0-for-8 lifetime against him with three strikeouts.</td> <td>In 11 career plate appearances, Emil Brown and Bobby Crosby have one hit and five strikeouts.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Among starting pitchers, Duchscherer has the second-lowest on base percentage against (.260) in the majors this season, while Marcum is not far behind in sixth (.282). <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Expect Rays and Indians to hit in middle innings
Jeremy Sowers enters Wednesday's start against the Rays with an unimpressive 5.82 ERA and 1-6 record. Interestingly, Sowers has been outstanding early in games. He just can't seem to throw well for long. Opponents are hitting only .237 against the Indians' lefty through his first 45 pitches of the game, but are batting .353 once he goes beyond the 45-pitch mark.
Of the 176 at-bats ending on a fastball from Sowers this season, 39 percent have ended on pitches at the belt (middle third of the strike zone). League batting averages and slugging percentages are drastically higher on belt-high fastballs than they are on ones at the knees and above the waist. Sowers has avoided the exact heart of the zone (middle-middle) early in games, but not as the game progresses: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Sowers' belt-high fastballs (pct. located middle, in, away)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>AB ending location</td> <td>First 45 pitches</td> <td>After 45 pitches</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle of plate</td> <td>18.8</td> <td>38.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Inner third</td> <td>31.3</td> <td>38.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Outer third</td> <td>50.0</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Perhaps Wednesday's opposing pitcher, the Rays' Scott Kazmir, can relate to Sowers. Kazmir has also seen a big spike in opponent average after 45 pitches, from a stellar .144 BA against before his 45th pitch to .264 after. Hitters have sat on Kazmir's changeup the more they see it: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Kazmir's changeup</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>First 45 pitches</td> <td>After 45 pitches</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.067</td> <td>.419</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.133 </td> <td>.710 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Expect the offense to pick up in the middle innings as pitch counts rise Wednesday in Tampa. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Bailey struggling to finish batters off
Former top prospect Homer Bailey has struggled to make the transition to the big leagues. Since being recalled from the minors just before the All-Star break, Bailey, still only 22, has allowed 35 hits in 18 2/3 innings. Last year, Bailey's big problem was falling behind early in at-bats and being forced to throw fastballs in hitters' counts. This season, he has thrown early strikes at rates near or above league average: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey's strike pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Count</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0-0</td> <td>54.6</td> <td>55.5</td> <td>60.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-1</td> <td>50.5</td> <td>59.1</td> <td>57.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>1-0</td> <td>57.0</td> <td>64.7</td> <td>64.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>1-1</td> <td>56.2</td> <td>60.3</td> <td>63.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> But he has struggled to finish batters off when he does get two strikes. Not only is Bailey striking out few batters -- he has just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings this season -- he's yielding a lot of two-strike hits: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey in two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of PA's ending in outs</td> <td>69.1</td> <td>60.9</td> <td>74.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct.</td> <td>29.8</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>36.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.198</td> <td>.373</td> <td>.187</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.272</td> <td>.644</td> <td>.284</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Bailey's strikeout pitch is his fastball, and batters just haven't missed it often this season. One reason is that he has been around the zone more often: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Bailey's fastball in two-strike counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Season</td> <td>Pct. in-zone</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>51.1</td> <td>.164</td> <td>21.0</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>60.0</td> <td>.389</td> <td>8.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Look to see if Bailey can close out against the Brewers, who have 841 strikeouts, fifth-most in the league.