Loud bats in Philadelphia have grown quiet
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 1, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: TUESDAY
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Utley
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Philadelphia's power outage
The Phillies are in first place in the National League East, but Philly fans are anything but comfortable with their current situation. After sweeping the Braves on June 8, Philadelphia was a season-high 13 games over .500. Since then, the Phillies have lost six straight series and have five wins in 18 games. Philadelphia's dynamic offense has disappeared, as they've scored more than four runs in just five of 18 games (28 percent). In their first 65 contests, the Phillies' offense scored more than four runs 37 times (57 percent). Both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled in June. Chase Utley
Utley was arguably the best hitter in baseball over the season's first two months. He blasted 21 home runs in 59 games and had a .320 batting average. His average has since dropped to .297, and he has hit just two home runs in his past 23 games. Utley recently endured an 0-for-24 stretch, and he is batting .196 in the 13 games since June 14 (compared to .317 in his first 69 games). Utley hit .385 with four home runs and three doubles against curveballs before June 14, but is hitless against them since. With runners in scoring position, Utley is 0-for-16 with six strikeouts over the past two weeks. Ryan Howard
Howard's 199 strikeouts last season established a new major league record, and he's already struck out 114 times in 2008. Although Howard has belted 20 home runs (14 off right-handers), he has looked lost against left-handed pitchers. He is hitting .181 against southpaws with 57 strikeouts in 127 at-bats. Against righties, Howard has hit .239 with 57 strikeouts in 184 at-bats. Since finishing off a sweep of the Braves June 8, Howard is 3-for-27 (.111) with 14 strikeouts against lefties. All three hits were singles off fastballs, as he is 0-for-10 against curveballs and sliders. He has missed on 52 percent of swings against lefties, much worse than his 39 percent miss rate (and .200 batting average) before June 8. Fortunately for the Phillies, they are done facing AL clubs. They finished a franchise-worst 4-11 in interleague play, and Tuesday they hope that a return to Atlanta, the site of their last series win, will bring life to their slumping bats. 2. Kershaw trying to find off-speed touch
Clayton Kershaw, 20, is still looking for his first win as he prepares to face the Astros on Tuesday. The hard-throwing lefty dominated high school opponents with his mid-90s fastball, but Dodgers coaches emphasized development of his off-speed stuff in the minor leagues. He's worked hard on a changeup to go along with his hammer curve. Kershaw's struggles have been tied to mixing speeds. When he relies too much on his mid-90s heater, opponents' batting averages soar. But he has kept hitters in check when he changes speeds on 30 to 35 percent of his pitches (league batting average against left-handed pitching is .261): <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Kershaw starts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Date</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Fastball pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>May 25</td> <td>.227</td> <td>65.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May 30</td> <td>.333</td> <td>79.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 4</td> <td>.278</td> <td>80.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 10</td> <td>.300</td> <td>79.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 15</td> <td>.154</td> <td>69.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 20</td> <td>.222</td> <td>69.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 26</td> <td>.375</td> <td>59.4</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Control has been a problem, as Kershaw has walked an average of six batters per nine innings since his first start. He's thrown 62 percent of fastballs and 60 percent of curves for strikes this season, about league average, but has gotten just 44 percent of changeups over for strikes, well below the 62 percent league average for lefties. When Kershaw misses with his change, he tends to miss badly. Hitters have chased only 17 percent of his changeups out of the zone, half the average chase rate. He's also predictably thrown 44 percent of curves in two-strike counts; they've been hit for a .364 average. The Astros will be ready for Kershaw's heat. Houston's .354 batting average against 92-plus mph left-handed fastballs is best in the league by a wide margin. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Teixeira
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Teixeira crushing fastballs and changeups early in the count
Atlanta slugger Mark Teixeira got off to his typical slow start in 2008. This year, however, was even slower than usual, as Teixeira had just seven homers through the end of May and then endured an 18-game streak in June in which he went deep just once. But he got back on track with a three-homer outburst on June 22. He's gone on to hit three more homers in the six games since, and is batting .429 with 11 RBI over his past seven games. Teixeira hits most of his home runs against fastballs and changeups. Dating back to 2003, his rookie season, he hit 58 percent of his homers in scouted games against fastballs. He's hit another 31 percent of his homers against changeups. Consistent with that trend, 14 of his 16 homers this year, and five of the six homers in his recent streak, came on at-bats ending on either a fastball or a change. When Teixeira is on, he's more selective and more effective early in the count. The table below compares his performance early in the year against his two most recent hot streaks: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Teixeira vs. fastballs and changeups in early counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Aug. 2007</td> <td>June 22-29, 2008</td> <td>March-May, 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.467</td> <td>.700</td> <td>.256</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.933</td> <td>2.300</td> <td>.436</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of swings</td> <td>29.1</td> <td>30.4</td> <td>34.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>16.7</td> <td>7.1</td> <td>12.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> When he's hot, Teixeira looks for a fastball or change early in the count. Over the past week, five of Teixeira's six home runs have come on either the first or second pitch, a tendency Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies would be wise to note Tuesday. Six of the 11 homers off Kendrick this season have come on 0-0 or 0-1 counts.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 1, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: TUESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Philadelphia's power outage
The Phillies are in first place in the National League East, but Philly fans are anything but comfortable with their current situation. After sweeping the Braves on June 8, Philadelphia was a season-high 13 games over .500. Since then, the Phillies have lost six straight series and have five wins in 18 games. Philadelphia's dynamic offense has disappeared, as they've scored more than four runs in just five of 18 games (28 percent). In their first 65 contests, the Phillies' offense scored more than four runs 37 times (57 percent). Both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled in June. Chase Utley
Utley was arguably the best hitter in baseball over the season's first two months. He blasted 21 home runs in 59 games and had a .320 batting average. His average has since dropped to .297, and he has hit just two home runs in his past 23 games. Utley recently endured an 0-for-24 stretch, and he is batting .196 in the 13 games since June 14 (compared to .317 in his first 69 games). Utley hit .385 with four home runs and three doubles against curveballs before June 14, but is hitless against them since. With runners in scoring position, Utley is 0-for-16 with six strikeouts over the past two weeks. Ryan Howard
Howard's 199 strikeouts last season established a new major league record, and he's already struck out 114 times in 2008. Although Howard has belted 20 home runs (14 off right-handers), he has looked lost against left-handed pitchers. He is hitting .181 against southpaws with 57 strikeouts in 127 at-bats. Against righties, Howard has hit .239 with 57 strikeouts in 184 at-bats. Since finishing off a sweep of the Braves June 8, Howard is 3-for-27 (.111) with 14 strikeouts against lefties. All three hits were singles off fastballs, as he is 0-for-10 against curveballs and sliders. He has missed on 52 percent of swings against lefties, much worse than his 39 percent miss rate (and .200 batting average) before June 8. Fortunately for the Phillies, they are done facing AL clubs. They finished a franchise-worst 4-11 in interleague play, and Tuesday they hope that a return to Atlanta, the site of their last series win, will bring life to their slumping bats. 2. Kershaw trying to find off-speed touch
Clayton Kershaw, 20, is still looking for his first win as he prepares to face the Astros on Tuesday. The hard-throwing lefty dominated high school opponents with his mid-90s fastball, but Dodgers coaches emphasized development of his off-speed stuff in the minor leagues. He's worked hard on a changeup to go along with his hammer curve. Kershaw's struggles have been tied to mixing speeds. When he relies too much on his mid-90s heater, opponents' batting averages soar. But he has kept hitters in check when he changes speeds on 30 to 35 percent of his pitches (league batting average against left-handed pitching is .261): <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Kershaw starts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Date</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Fastball pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>May 25</td> <td>.227</td> <td>65.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May 30</td> <td>.333</td> <td>79.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 4</td> <td>.278</td> <td>80.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 10</td> <td>.300</td> <td>79.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 15</td> <td>.154</td> <td>69.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 20</td> <td>.222</td> <td>69.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 26</td> <td>.375</td> <td>59.4</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Control has been a problem, as Kershaw has walked an average of six batters per nine innings since his first start. He's thrown 62 percent of fastballs and 60 percent of curves for strikes this season, about league average, but has gotten just 44 percent of changeups over for strikes, well below the 62 percent league average for lefties. When Kershaw misses with his change, he tends to miss badly. Hitters have chased only 17 percent of his changeups out of the zone, half the average chase rate. He's also predictably thrown 44 percent of curves in two-strike counts; they've been hit for a .364 average. The Astros will be ready for Kershaw's heat. Houston's .354 batting average against 92-plus mph left-handed fastballs is best in the league by a wide margin. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Teixeira crushing fastballs and changeups early in the count
Atlanta slugger Mark Teixeira got off to his typical slow start in 2008. This year, however, was even slower than usual, as Teixeira had just seven homers through the end of May and then endured an 18-game streak in June in which he went deep just once. But he got back on track with a three-homer outburst on June 22. He's gone on to hit three more homers in the six games since, and is batting .429 with 11 RBI over his past seven games. Teixeira hits most of his home runs against fastballs and changeups. Dating back to 2003, his rookie season, he hit 58 percent of his homers in scouted games against fastballs. He's hit another 31 percent of his homers against changeups. Consistent with that trend, 14 of his 16 homers this year, and five of the six homers in his recent streak, came on at-bats ending on either a fastball or a change. When Teixeira is on, he's more selective and more effective early in the count. The table below compares his performance early in the year against his two most recent hot streaks: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Teixeira vs. fastballs and changeups in early counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Aug. 2007</td> <td>June 22-29, 2008</td> <td>March-May, 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.467</td> <td>.700</td> <td>.256</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.933</td> <td>2.300</td> <td>.436</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of swings</td> <td>29.1</td> <td>30.4</td> <td>34.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>16.7</td> <td>7.1</td> <td>12.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> When he's hot, Teixeira looks for a fastball or change early in the count. Over the past week, five of Teixeira's six home runs have come on either the first or second pitch, a tendency Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies would be wise to note Tuesday. Six of the 11 homers off Kendrick this season have come on 0-0 or 0-1 counts.