I am about to go on a 4 day business "retreat" to give my very independent opinions of what are truly threats here. Most of my thoughts are rarely addressed. Since I am getting paid for this I won't go into much detail, but just some stuff to talk about for the weekend hopefully will keep the dumb rumors from becoming too bad!
1. Who is left? Everyone and their brother knows about offshore and those that haven't made the leap pretty much are hard sells. What is left basically are the people that say "no way in hell I am sending my money to Costa Rica/Antigua/Panama/etc". I don't know how much of a business you can make out of getting these people on board. So it really will become a mature customer base and the only way to make money will be to get these existing customers or former customers to have bigger budgets.
2. Understanding of the industry by the government. We all know about these issues, but you can't stress them enough. As it becomes more and more clear how strong these industries can be, it will also become clear how much money the locals can aim to shake out of them. Scary thought, you can only run so much to other areas before you lose friendly turf.
3. The thin line the books toe. Olympic, CRIS, Pinnacle, etc can all be talked about being solid and whatnot, but they still are exposed to the "industry risk". These guys can suffer somewhat when other books go under because inevitably someone will point out, if XXX book went under, what prevents even the best from going under? Regulation or at least oversight to make sure no book has a scandalous crash will become more and more important.
4. Ties into 3. These posting boards are great for keeping up with the news and entertainment for most of us, but lets admit the fact that they could become a huge nuisance to the industry. If a couple players get disgruntled from a book going under they could start up virus like attacks questioning the credibility of the books and that would cripple even those with good names.
5. One last thing with these boards. I am troubled by the public nature everything is going to. Disputes between books and their players shouldn't be public forum, just my opinion on that. I mean what good can come out of WSEX having an issue with a player that gets 100 posters to chime in with their 2 cents? Yes it gets a lot of people a chance to get their opinion known, but in the long run I don't see it as being good for business for anyone. Books, like all businesses, have matters and ways of operating that need to stay close to the vest. By airing out dirty laundry like this, you give the impression to all that read that books are out to screw over people and that even industry leaders aren't all that trusthworthy. Can that possibly be good for anyone booking, no matter how good or bad their reputation is?
Finally....
The true threat from the US government. Its not what you think. Kyl and his boys aren't a big threat. What would really screw this industry and all gambling legal or not is if the IRS gets really involved. The stigma they could create for not properly reporting your wins and losses on taxes would get a lot of people to go straight. Its not easy for them to figure out who is gambling and who is not, but the laws are written that make it real easy for them to cause trouble if they want to. If they cause trouble then a lot of people that are just doing this for fun would stop doing it and a lot of the liquidity to the market that squares give would disappear. No to mention that the IRS would make enough money here and there to call it a major campaign and put more resources behind it making it even more troubling. Forget Kyl, this is where the biggest US risk lies.
1. Who is left? Everyone and their brother knows about offshore and those that haven't made the leap pretty much are hard sells. What is left basically are the people that say "no way in hell I am sending my money to Costa Rica/Antigua/Panama/etc". I don't know how much of a business you can make out of getting these people on board. So it really will become a mature customer base and the only way to make money will be to get these existing customers or former customers to have bigger budgets.
2. Understanding of the industry by the government. We all know about these issues, but you can't stress them enough. As it becomes more and more clear how strong these industries can be, it will also become clear how much money the locals can aim to shake out of them. Scary thought, you can only run so much to other areas before you lose friendly turf.
3. The thin line the books toe. Olympic, CRIS, Pinnacle, etc can all be talked about being solid and whatnot, but they still are exposed to the "industry risk". These guys can suffer somewhat when other books go under because inevitably someone will point out, if XXX book went under, what prevents even the best from going under? Regulation or at least oversight to make sure no book has a scandalous crash will become more and more important.
4. Ties into 3. These posting boards are great for keeping up with the news and entertainment for most of us, but lets admit the fact that they could become a huge nuisance to the industry. If a couple players get disgruntled from a book going under they could start up virus like attacks questioning the credibility of the books and that would cripple even those with good names.
5. One last thing with these boards. I am troubled by the public nature everything is going to. Disputes between books and their players shouldn't be public forum, just my opinion on that. I mean what good can come out of WSEX having an issue with a player that gets 100 posters to chime in with their 2 cents? Yes it gets a lot of people a chance to get their opinion known, but in the long run I don't see it as being good for business for anyone. Books, like all businesses, have matters and ways of operating that need to stay close to the vest. By airing out dirty laundry like this, you give the impression to all that read that books are out to screw over people and that even industry leaders aren't all that trusthworthy. Can that possibly be good for anyone booking, no matter how good or bad their reputation is?
Finally....
The true threat from the US government. Its not what you think. Kyl and his boys aren't a big threat. What would really screw this industry and all gambling legal or not is if the IRS gets really involved. The stigma they could create for not properly reporting your wins and losses on taxes would get a lot of people to go straight. Its not easy for them to figure out who is gambling and who is not, but the laws are written that make it real easy for them to cause trouble if they want to. If they cause trouble then a lot of people that are just doing this for fun would stop doing it and a lot of the liquidity to the market that squares give would disappear. No to mention that the IRS would make enough money here and there to call it a major campaign and put more resources behind it making it even more troubling. Forget Kyl, this is where the biggest US risk lies.
