Thoughts on September 3rd Game of USC vs. Alabama?

[Incubus]

I realize there are a lot of Alabama football followers here at the Rx who really know the program, so I'd like to know
if you feel the Crimson Tide can cover the current spread against the Trojans on September 3rd in Arlington, Texas.

My book just posted the line at Alabama -10.

I'm a USC alumn, but I just can't see my alma mater hanging within this number. I'm not living in fantasy land. I know my
school's 2016 team will be scrappy in the PAC-12 and their other out of conference games, but this is Alabama we're speaking of.

I'm considering locking in this at Alabama -10, since I think the number should be at -13 to -14. I forecast the score to be in
the neighborhood of 27-13 or thereabouts.

Anyone have an opinion as well as a score forecast? :think2:

Thanks to anyone who replies.

 

[cloverleaf]

Line up to -11 at some books.

Southern Cal's OFFENSE vs. Alabama's DEFENSE.

Strength on strength........................

 

[Incubus]

Line up to -11 at some books.

Southern Cal's OFFENSE vs. Alabama's DEFENSE.

Strength on strength........................

Thanks for responding.

What's the saying?

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Is it too early to discuss this match-up? Perhaps it is.
Lots can happen in the next 6 or 7 weeks.
Maybe an UNDER if the number's right, probably 42 to 45 as a total? That may be a better way. @)

 

[cloverleaf]

Southern Cal has talent on defense but they also have some issues especially on the defensive
line where the NEW defensive coordinator must find all new starters. Linebacker is also a question
mark with mainly new starters. The secondary should be pretty solid especially at the corners.

It's not like Alabama's offensive coordinator will hold back any if he gets the chance. He can't sleep
at night waiting on this game.

I'm a Bama homer but I firmly believe the defense is the best in the country. Studs everywhere!

 

[Conan]

Southern Cal has talent on defense but they also have some issues especially on the defensive
line where the NEW defensive coordinator must find all new starters. Linebacker is also a question
mark with mainly new starters. The secondary should be pretty solid especially at the corners.

It's not like Alabama's offensive coordinator will hold back any if he gets the chance. He can't sleep
at night waiting on this game.

I'm a Bama homer but I firmly believe the defense is the best in the country. Studs everywhere!

You know that you are talking about Lane Kiffin, right?
There's some interesting history here. I also heard that
Pat Haden (USC's AD} will be calling it quits after this
season. He personally fired Kiffin on the tarmac as soon
as his plane landed after a game. Saban knew better.

This game should reveal a lot about how well 'Bama's offense
will play this year.

 

[cloverleaf]

Yeah...Lane Kiffin will be sky-high for this one Conan. He's done a great job for
Alabama as offensive coordinator and I was one of those Bama guys screaming
the loudest when Saban hired him.

Alabama has to settle on a quarterback to run the offense. Kiffin has been outstanding
working with new quarterbacks during his time with the Tide and I expect the same results
this year.

That new quarterback at USC (Max Browne or Sam Donald) will see blitzes they've never
dreamed of before. Saban will bring the house on which ever rookie starts.

I like Bama to win and cover because of the defense and knowing Saban is money when
having time to get a team ready. He's 7-1 ATS in openers with Bama.

 

[sendacash]

I would lean towards taking the points with USC if getting > +10. Although I'm not sure there is a big rush to take a dog against such a public team like Bama, although last couple seasons I have been regretting waiting it out for more points.

 

[cloverleaf]

Maybe your lean Cash toward Southern Cal would be of interest to the forum.

Why the lean Cashman?

 

[NoCoke]

People always question Alabama's offense going into a new season, but there's just too much talent there. That defense is loaded like Clover mentioned as well. Not to mention that USC doesn't play the type of football that gives Alabama trouble. It's too tough to out-Bama Bama. Alabama will most likely control both lines and end up winning by 14 or so.

 

[GoSooners]

The line opened at -10 and was quickly steamed to -13. Now it's back to -11. As is, it's probably a no bet for me. If it goes back up over -11 I would lean USC. Bama has only 5 starters back on defense, but I still think this is the biggest most talented unit in the country. The main problem I have here is the line value. We had it calculated at closer to -8. Especially with Bama having to break in a new QB, and probably facing the best set of skill players in their first game than they have in recent years. I'm not a fan of Clay Helton. But I think he has a little better idea of what to do in his second season. And a entire summer to prepare for one game is different than the potential screw ups he'll have during the season. I think there are better games to bet than marquee games played in the first week on a neutral field. But anything around 2 touchdowns favors USC.

 

[Conan]

Yeah Clover, Kiffin will be sky high for this. I also have enormous respect for 'Bama's
defense as you mentioned. But from what I've been hearing, USC's receiving corps is
probably the fastest group of players at the position they've ever had. The way one
writer put it, any 4 of 6 USC receivers could run the 4x100 men's relay in Rio and likely
win it. USC is filthy deep in talent across the board too.

I don't think this game will be as close s people expect it to be. The way I see it, it boils
down to Saban vs Helton. It looks like this is where the real mismatch is.

 

[Sammy18]

I've been closely following Alabama football since Saban took the reigns for that program back in '07. Since then, Alabama has played in 6 of those neutral site opening games (in Dallas or ATL) against name programs. Alabama has made it a habit of dominating in these games. In those 6 games, they've won by an average of 19 points (with none of teams coming within less than 10 points). As for this season, I think Alabama will be extremely dominant on the line on both sides of the ball. We've seen it time and time again under Saban, he doesn't need a prolific QB to win at the highest level - that'll be the case again this year (whoever is the QB will be asked to manage the game). This is just my personal opinion, but I think Kiffin is going to want to embarrass his former team. As for USC, breaking in a new QB against this defense will be a tough, tough task. I think they'll be lucky to score 14+ points against this Alabama defense. I'll take Nick Saban big against any Pac-12 team. My prediction: Alabama wins 31-10...same story, different year.

 

[sendacash]

Maybe your lean Cash toward Southern Cal would be of interest to the forum.

Why the lean Cashman?

Similar to Sooners thoughts for me Clover with the slight line value on USC. That and I'm one who kind of likes to go against the grain, although USC is somewhat of a public team as well so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out once the masses get involved.

 

[cloverleaf]

I've been closely following Alabama football since Saban took the reigns for that program back in '07. Since then, Alabama has played in 6 of those neutral site opening games (in Dallas or ATL) against name programs. Alabama has made it a habit of dominating in these games. In those 6 games, they've won by an average of 19 points (with none of teams coming within less than 10 points). As for this season, I think Alabama will be extremely dominant on the line on both sides of the ball. We've seen it time and time again under Saban, he doesn't need a prolific QB to win at the highest level - that'll be the case again this year (whoever is the QB will be asked to manage the game). This is just my personal opinion, but I think Kiffin is going to want to embarrass his former team. As for USC, breaking in a new QB against this defense will be a tough, tough task. I think they'll be lucky to score 14+ points against this Alabama defense. I'll take Nick Saban big against any Pac-12 team. My prediction: Alabama wins 31-10...same story, different year.

+1

 

[cloverleaf]

Yeah Clover, Kiffin will be sky high for this. I also have enormous respect for 'Bama's
defense as you mentioned. But from what I've been hearing, USC's receiving corps is
probably the fastest group of players at the position they've ever had. The way one
writer put it, any 4 of 6 USC receivers could run the 4x100 men's relay in Rio and likely
win it. USC is filthy deep in talent across the board too.

I don't think this game will be as close s people expect it to be. The way I see it, it boils
down to Saban vs Helton. It looks like this is where the real mismatch is.

That kid JuJu Smith scares the hell out of me but he will be going up against two good
corners with experience. Alabama will give the rookie QB a ton of different looks and
hopefully keep him off balance. Getting after the QB against an inexperienced offensive
line will be a key for Bama winning this game.

 

[WinOne]

You know that you are talking about Lane Kiffin, right?
There's some interesting history here. I also heard that
Pat Haden (USC's AD} will be calling it quits after this
season. He personally fired Kiffin on the tarmac as soon
as his plane landed after a game. Saban knew better.

This game should reveal a lot about how well 'Bama's offense
will play this year.

Conan,
I believe Haden was out effective July 1 of this year so It's the Lynn Swann era as AD.
I think a lot will depend on how the Bama offense jells. LY breaking in a new QB their offense was sluggish early on in the Game 1 win over Wisconsin. It may be because they were playing 2 of them. I do believe they picked it up in the second half but Wisky got NOTHING from their QB (5.5yd/attempt). I do echo the sentiments about the USC DL though. It's a complete rebuild up front for them. This might be a low scoring game.

 

[WinOne]

That kid JuJu Smith scares the hell out of me but he will be going up against two good
corners with experience. Alabama will give the rookie QB a ton of different looks and
hopefully keep him off balance. Getting after the QB against an inexperienced offensive
line will be a key for Bama winning this game.

.

Gotta be able to run the ball to protect both young QB's. If you're SC, how do you defend OJ Howard? You have to cover with a safety but you then lose that man to your run defense. So for SC on defense it'll be pick your poison. Slide the safety to Howard and hope you can stop the run, or play base and blitz and hope you don't get beat up the seams. Unless Bama just does not get good QB play.

The other thing I'd be interested to see if Bama puts in a package for that freshman QB that played in their spring game. That kid gives them a TOTALLY different look. Now saying that, he probably gives Saban heartburn, but that kid looked like he could be special.

 

[cloverleaf]

WinOne, I have ZERO inside information on if/where/how freshman QB Jalen Hurts might
be used. He would provide an intriguing option for sure.

Actually, I would bet my friend Shorty's bass boat that a package will be available for the
talented young quarterback. Understand I don't have the title to Shorty's boat though.

 

[WinOne]

WinOne, I have ZERO inside information on if/where/how freshman QB Jalen Hurts might
be used. He would provide an intriguing option for sure.

Actually, I would bet my friend Shorty's bass boat that a package will be available for the
talented young quarterback. Understand I don't have the title to Shorty's boat though.

I guess that means we both could ask Shorty if we could use his bass boat to go fishing. With respect to QB Hurt, my guess is if he has progressed in the weight room over the summer, and if he's been throwing the ball well, I'm sure they will put a package together for him. If for nothing more than a "change of pace". I'm a big fan of mobie QB's that can move the pocket because they put pressure on a defense to have to account for them. Facing a pocket passer, it's really 11 on 10 because you dont have to account for the QB. But when that QB can provide a good run/pass option, it really opens up the offense. Look at what Simms did for the Bama offense in just 1 year. He could make plays with his feet when everything was defensed perfectly by the defense. It drives DC's crazy.

 

[bigwang]

This game just screams a Bama cover to me. Maybe a late one but they still win by 13+. Too much time for Saban and staff to prepare their kids.

USC was good against SEC a decade ago but times have really changed. Best in SEC beats any Pac 12 school.