Look beyond those numbers with Arroyo wil. In his last five starts Arroyo has had only one poor effort, (6/10 @ ChiSox).
That last game against the Tribe was misleading if you take the numbers without consideration to how they were compiled. He served up a round the horn double play, (that would have ended the fourth inning deadlocked at 0-0), in which Bellhorn took his eye off the ball at second and allowed it to head off to Trot Nixon. Two runs in. Another run on a poor fielding effort by Miller at first led to the third run of the inning. In the seventh Nixon botched a catch that ended up as a two run homer. The problem with this game was not Arroyo but that the Sox couldn’t get to Millwood and only got three hits on the night.
In three games against Toronto this year Arroyo has a whip of 1.00, era of 2.37, and a average against of .236. Eric Hinske is the only Blue Jay with a lick of success against him, (.438 / 16 ab). Catalanotto, Hillenbrand, Hudson, Rios, and Wells have a combined average of .136, (8 for 59), with one homer against Arroyo.
Meanwhile against Halladay…..Damon, Nixon, Ortiz, Ramirez, and Varitek are batting .308, (69 for 224), and with nine homers, (Ortiz has five). Halladay has always had his share of difficulty against the Red Sox and with Boston’s strong home play I believe getting them at pick ‘em is the value.
Don’t forget this game has added meaning for Arroyo because with Schilling coming off the DL this could be his last start before being put in the bullpen. Jerry Remy is even saying that he should be considered to close some games.
I'm on the Sox at -104 and some more on the run line at +190.