Thoughts on Dayton +8?

[MikeyMcGraw]

This is my favorite play of the tournament. I think Dayton gets the win straight up today. I have them to close out a parlay and ats at +7.5 (line moved to +8 at my book today). Here are the numbers, which I am just posting to get an opinion of what exactly I should hedge in this situation.

100 to win 315 (played with Uconn, Duke, OU, Memphis)
44 to win 40 (ats +7.5)

If I hedge here, I'd be thinking something like 240 to win 200 on KU, since I would have to buy .5 to get the line back to -7.5. Should I hedge, let ride or wait until halftime and hope UD comes out strong, potentially setting me up for a middle?

Thanks for any opinions.

 

[Johnny_Ringo]

Mikey

I feel the same way you do which means its too easy. Kansas covers.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Kansas really does not play defense.. i think this line if weak on any side its Dayton +8 .. i would buy the half point and take Dayton

 

[XXXylic]

Love dayton today

 

[bigtendominator]

The reason I am not playing this game is because Dayton's lack of size scared me and I wondering how they stop Aldrich and Morris inside. UD will have to be able to knock down 3s on the dribble penetration, if not it will be early curtains.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Aldrich is a good plyer granted but he lacks athleic skill needed for the brackets.. he will not be that effective

 

[bigtendominator]

Aldrich is a good plyer granted but he lacks athleic skill needed for the brackets.. he will not be that effective

He doesn't have to be a great athlete, Huelsman is not going to do anything against up except collect fouls.

All I am saying is this is a no play for me. I can this game going either way. KU blowout or a UD win. I know that is stating the obvious, but that is why it is a no play for me.

Also, Aldrich will get double, which will free up Collins, Taylor, Morningstar or Reed.

I would love nothing more than UD to win this game, but KU's size and their outside shooting could be a differenc.e

 

[MikeyMcGraw]

This is torture. Leaning towards the hedge. If I hedge:

Best case scenario- UD covers +7.5 and I win 115
Worst case- KU covers +7.5 (buying hook) and I win 66

Or I let it ride- UD covers +7.5 and I win 355
worst case - KU covers and I lose 144...

 

[MikeyMcGraw]

Just hedged...KU 240 to win 200 (-7.5)

 

[krk1030]

too close to call. Cant see dayton winning, but should keep it close.

 

[Drewgasm]

I like Kansas......route baby.....see UCONN and Memphis yesterday!


Gasm~

 

[johnboland]

The Goober Head that runs my local grocery store is on Dayton +8 big. He did not tell me an exact figure, but I could tell by the look on his face, it WAS quite a substantial amount of cash. I think Dayton is playing really well right now and their little point guard is exciting to watch. I will be rooting for Dayton today for yet another upset and the defending champions exit from the dance.

 

[Ilovetobet]

Anyone like over 135 in this game!??

 

[balls2thawall]

Anyone like over 135 in this game!??

IM ON IT SO PLAY UNDER:lol:

 

[tmader7]

If you gave up on Dayton, you phucked up IMO. This is NOT the same KU team as last year, not a single starter back. All over Dayton here, but GLTU.

~T~

 

[Ilovetobet]

IM ON IT SO PLAY UNDER:lol:

o no lol

 

[seanm0520]

Grabbed the over at 133. I see an 75-70 type of finale!

 

[Ilovetobet]

Over under down to 133 now!

 

[akphidelt]

Also, Aldrich will get double, which will free up Collins, Taylor, Morningstar or Reed.

I would love nothing more than UD to win this game, but KU's size and their outside shooting could be a differenc.e

Good call, Kansas will coast in to a win if Aldrich stays out of foul trouble. Got them -7.5 last night!!

 

[seanm0520]

Need some motherfucking points!