Thoughts on buying 1/2 pt

[tg33emu]

Do you do it? If so, when and why? It never seems to work for me, but some swear by it.

:cripwalk:

 

[IrishTim]

It's not profitable long term, but I'll OCCASIONALLY do it when the line is either -3.5 or +2.5, more for psychological reasons than anything else. Would hate for a field goal to beat me.

But in reality, you shouldn't be betting on a game if you think you're going to need that half point.

 

[Freddygot1]

a few peope will say on key numbers, 3, 7, 10, 14, 21, etc

if you were +2.5, +13.5 etc, that half a point some times will get you the push

bu other than that i wouldnt worry about it, if i had
+4.5 or +11.5 id leave them alone.

but everyone has there own way of doing things, whatever works for you i guess.

 

[quantumleap]

Do you think the books would make it profitable for you to buy the 1/2 point? Why would they?

 

[sdf]

if you have to do it, do it around 3. Otherwise you are wasting your money. you are infinitely better off having multiple books to bet with and finding the best line among those books.

last year 36 games fell right on or within a half point of the closing line. having access to multiple books gives you the ability to find the best line and come out ahead in the long run

 

[sdf]

Do you think the books would make it profitable for you to buy the 1/2 point? Why would they?

they charge a lot of juice in NFL because buying around th 3 in NFL is a good bet often times. hell, many books will not let you buy off the 3.

college is a different beast. buying points is often cheap as are teasers.
they are not smart bets

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Buying the "hook", as it is called,is like buying insurance in Blackjack. It is a profitable wager, for the book. Last year, in the NFL, with all the games that ended up in the 3 or 7 points neighborhood (-2 1/2 to -3 1/2, and -6 1/2 to -7 1/2) there were very few games that actually were affected. I believe it was 5 games with about 130 possbile games with this line. My numbers may be a bit off, but as you can see, this was certainly not a profitble wager.

 

[TyBounce]

This is a subject where there are alot of different theories.

My theory is this. I buy to tie the 1/2 point loss , so if i was playing a team +2.5 i might buy it to 3 so that i dont get beat by a 1/2 point , i try to tie the loss. ... I never believe in being greedy and trying to win a tie , a push is ok for me , so i wouldnt buy +3 to +3.5.

buy to tie , not to win.

 

[Fezzik]

LOL, Aces Gold disagrees with those saying "buying points isn't profitable"

Any book that let you buy on/off the NFL 3 for 10 cents will go banrkupt.........having said that, those buys are long gone.

I like the 21 analogy. However, the conclusion is tremendously wrong. Insurance IS a bad bet most of the time. However, a card counter gains quite a bit from insurance buying it only when it makes sense (high counts). Similarly, sharp bettors buy on/off the NFL and College 7 for 10 cents.......not a big gain in expectation, and it doesn't turn a bad bet into a good one, but certainly makes an already good bet into a slightly better one on a game you like. 49ers +7.5 -130 is a better bet than +6.5 -110 for example week1 in the NFL.........

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Fezzik making a rare appearance on these boards. Always good to see.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

If I take the dog in a game where the defenses should dominate, I will sometimes buy the hook on a key number if I can't find better odds at another book. In most cases it's not worth it in my opinion.

 

[silver7]

This Subject Was The Genesis

of a virulent feud!!! One that has gone beyond this & will NEVER end.

 

[BOBBYW]

ANOTHER TWIST ON BUYING THE HALF PT AND JUST IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS IS IT AT LEAST GIVES YOU A CHANCE TO PUSH.....
A FAV AT 2.5 I SAY NO BUT A FAV AT 3.5 I'M BUYING DOWN OR NO PLAY. MOST OF MY BETS ARE SUN NITE OR MON am SO I CAN GET THE BEST POS LINE AND YOU CAN ALWAYS ADJUST LATER IN THE WEEK.....

 

[BOBBYW]

Forgot i was in the cfb forum.....my theory above is usually reserved for nfl and i rarely buy .5 in college.....and there is always exceptions

 

[GoSooners]

This chart may help you in deciding to buy a half a point or not. As you can see the numbers 3, 7, 17 and 38 are the most frequently pushed numbers. But still, if you don't buy a half point, your chances of hitting without a push is still well over 95% on average. Personally, I've gotten away from buying half points. If I don't feel so comfortable as to think that there is only a half point of play in my bet, I'll more than likely just leave the game alone for my own piece of mind.

<HR SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->
[COLOR=#000000 !important]For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

<STYLE> .ats { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</STYLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats>Spread</TD><TD class=ats>N</TD><TD class=ats>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>0</TD><TD class=ats>248</TD><TD class=ats>0.00%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>1</TD><TD class=ats>657</TD><TD class=ats>1.22%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>2</TD><TD class=ats>801</TD><TD class=ats>1.87%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>3</TD><TD class=ats>989</TD><TD class=ats>6.67%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>4</TD><TD class=ats>1,038</TD><TD class=ats>2.99%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>5</TD><TD class=ats>1,108</TD><TD class=ats>2.08%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>6</TD><TD class=ats>1,015</TD><TD class=ats>2.76%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>7</TD><TD class=ats>955</TD><TD class=ats>5.45%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>8</TD><TD class=ats>960</TD><TD class=ats>1.98%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>9</TD><TD class=ats>870</TD><TD class=ats>1.26%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>10</TD><TD class=ats>693</TD><TD class=ats>3.17%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>11</TD><TD class=ats>668</TD><TD class=ats>2.10%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>12</TD><TD class=ats>684</TD><TD class=ats>1.61%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>13</TD><TD class=ats>624</TD><TD class=ats>0.48%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>14</TD><TD class=ats>585</TD><TD class=ats>4.44%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>15</TD><TD class=ats>995</TD><TD class=ats>1.01%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>16</TD><TD class=ats>957</TD><TD class=ats>1.67%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>17</TD><TD class=ats>912</TD><TD class=ats>5.04%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>18</TD><TD class=ats>837</TD><TD class=ats>2.99%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>19</TD><TD class=ats>736</TD><TD class=ats>2.04%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>20</TD><TD class=ats>713</TD><TD class=ats>2.81%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>21</TD><TD class=ats>684</TD><TD class=ats>4.68%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>22</TD><TD class=ats>624</TD><TD class=ats>1.28%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>23</TD><TD class=ats>575</TD><TD class=ats>2.09%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>24</TD><TD class=ats>568</TD><TD class=ats>4.40%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>25</TD><TD class=ats>515</TD><TD class=ats>2.52%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>26</TD><TD class=ats>453</TD><TD class=ats>1.55%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>27</TD><TD class=ats>422</TD><TD class=ats>2.84%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>28</TD><TD class=ats>389</TD><TD class=ats>3.60%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>29</TD><TD class=ats>337</TD><TD class=ats>1.48%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>30</TD><TD class=ats>306</TD><TD class=ats>2.29%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>31</TD><TD class=ats>281</TD><TD class=ats>4.27%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>32</TD><TD class=ats>240</TD><TD class=ats>2.92%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>33</TD><TD class=ats>207</TD><TD class=ats>0.00%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>34</TD><TD class=ats>180</TD><TD class=ats>3.33%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>35</TD><TD class=ats>156</TD><TD class=ats>1.92%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>36</TD><TD class=ats>128</TD><TD class=ats>2.34%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>37</TD><TD class=ats>112</TD><TD class=ats>1.79%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>38</TD><TD class=ats>97</TD><TD class=ats>8.25%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>39</TD><TD class=ats>76</TD><TD class=ats>1.32%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>40</TD><TD class=ats>64</TD><TD class=ats>1.56%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>41</TD><TD class=ats>56</TD><TD class=ats>3.57%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats>42</TD><TD class=ats>46</TD><TD class=ats>2.17%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats></TD><TD class=ats></TD><TD class=ats></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>Methodology:

• All NCAA Football available regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://winningpoints.com/) with from the 2000 season through September 30<SUP>th</SUP> of the 2006 season were analyzed (4,054 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 4 points (2 points for spreads of 14 or less) of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 17 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 13 and 21.
• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.

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[sdf]

those % look off GoS

or maybe i'm just reading it wrong

 

[GoSooners]

those % look off GoS

or maybe i'm just reading it wrong

sdf...I'm not going to even try to pretend to understand this chart and how exactly it works in relation to betting.. Some of the smart mathmeticians/betting experts in here may be able to give you a better idea of what this table of percentages is all about.