I know there was a thread on this not long ago but I'd like to share some of my thoughts about this topic. I would like to say however, that I am hardly the expert, do not have nearly the experience that many here have, and have never written any advice about wagering before. This is a FIRST for me. So if this ends up sounding too elementary or stupid please don't flame me as I am only trying to help in an area where I have had some really good success. Lets say this is for newbies and the rest of you can ignore it.
With that disclaimer out of the way:
We all know that this is our best chance to go head to head against the man in an almost split second decision and maybe catch a soft line.
So:
You must have watched the first half closely with no distractions. I look for key injuries, emotion, momentum and situations where the public will be chasing their chalk pick that now looks bad. Often good money value can be had the other way. Remember where the public was at the start.
I will assume that the man had dealt a reasonably sound line at the beginning of the game, and in MOST cases, totals and sides, the game will eventually revert back toward those numbers.
Large half time leads more often than not, for a number of obvious and maybe not so obvious reasons, should be reduced in the second half and move back to the direction of the original line.
But there are some really obvious exceptions and I'll go over a few this year that for me were relatively easy to see coming and have helped salvage my season to date.
Lets look at the LSU and Oregon road games at Arizona. I watched both games closely and it was obvious that Arizona had both quit on Mackovic and themselves. Easy pick against them in the second half no matter the score. They were totally, completely inept. You could see Arizona players smiling and chuckling as the score piled up with an ashen faced Mackovic afraid to even look his players in the face. Same exact scenario in both the LSU and Oregon games. Made the upcoming Purdue road game an easy pick also.
Teams do quit at the half. Teams without depth should be identified. I look at the coach big time. Character--can he rally his team. Character--is he Steve Spurrier who is going to throw 40 yards for the boosters with time running out or will he make an effort to not embarrass the guy across the field.
Lets take a look at Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Second half total at first glance a scary 32.5 moved quickly to 33. But we know that this is a hated rivalry and Tech will show no mercy while trying to show off Symons in a TV game. He also will be going for the record. They will throw regardless of score, if only because of their system, and most certainly put up what ever number they want to. Meanwhile, A&M while helpless on defense were not totally helpless on offense against a very mediocre Tech defense. They too would throw and put up a TD or two. Who was going to run to stop the clock in this 2nd half? Nobody. Bingo, second half over comes in by the end of the 3rd quarter and Tech 2nd half side comes in too. Two very big plays for me that saved the day.
Now lets look at last night's Colorado St at BYU game. I didn't play bases last night or the other game, so I'm watching this one from the get go. If memory serves me right the posted game total was someting like 54 or so and was exceeded in the first half. The Rams clearly the dominant team and BYU not getting much of anything going. One of their first half scores was a 10 yd drive after a fumble recovery. I do not see Sonny Lubick intentionally running up the score but I do see him running almost exclusively in the 2nd half. And I can't see BYU scoring much either in fact they too weren't a bad bet to run the ball just to keep the score down. They were whipped at the half. A quick check on the screen and the 2nd half total is 27.5 but one of my outs has a 28. Iv'e already got the Rams for the game. I play the U28 for a little less than my game bet to insure a profit.
I have almost entirely stopped playing the NFL except for Monday nite
. But Sunday I was watching the Fins/Giants game with no wager down. Second half Miami looked good to me for a number of reasons. Then just before play resumes it's announced that the Giants are minus a placekicker with a 3 point spread. The line is still up on the screen, yea it's 135, but a small play against the Giants is still in order, on top of my first play earlier, cause the books sure don't want me to take it. The injury factor is obviously at play in 2nd half bets even more so with an NFL kicker out.
A lot of these situations can be found in college hoops where emotional up and downs are more pronounced than in the pro game IMO.
I did not make this post to gloat as I am only very slightly up this year and without these games I'd be down a few units. I made this post to maybe help a few newbies in a type of wager that, unlike my other wagers, has been close to a 58% proposition for over the last few years. There have been times I have felt this is the only type of wager I should make, but there are so many games that offer no clear cut choice at the half and, of course, then there would be no action. I feel I would just end up forcing a bet and the advantage would be lost.
With that disclaimer out of the way:
We all know that this is our best chance to go head to head against the man in an almost split second decision and maybe catch a soft line.
So:
You must have watched the first half closely with no distractions. I look for key injuries, emotion, momentum and situations where the public will be chasing their chalk pick that now looks bad. Often good money value can be had the other way. Remember where the public was at the start.
I will assume that the man had dealt a reasonably sound line at the beginning of the game, and in MOST cases, totals and sides, the game will eventually revert back toward those numbers.
Large half time leads more often than not, for a number of obvious and maybe not so obvious reasons, should be reduced in the second half and move back to the direction of the original line.
But there are some really obvious exceptions and I'll go over a few this year that for me were relatively easy to see coming and have helped salvage my season to date.
Lets look at the LSU and Oregon road games at Arizona. I watched both games closely and it was obvious that Arizona had both quit on Mackovic and themselves. Easy pick against them in the second half no matter the score. They were totally, completely inept. You could see Arizona players smiling and chuckling as the score piled up with an ashen faced Mackovic afraid to even look his players in the face. Same exact scenario in both the LSU and Oregon games. Made the upcoming Purdue road game an easy pick also.
Teams do quit at the half. Teams without depth should be identified. I look at the coach big time. Character--can he rally his team. Character--is he Steve Spurrier who is going to throw 40 yards for the boosters with time running out or will he make an effort to not embarrass the guy across the field.
Lets take a look at Texas A&M at Texas Tech. Second half total at first glance a scary 32.5 moved quickly to 33. But we know that this is a hated rivalry and Tech will show no mercy while trying to show off Symons in a TV game. He also will be going for the record. They will throw regardless of score, if only because of their system, and most certainly put up what ever number they want to. Meanwhile, A&M while helpless on defense were not totally helpless on offense against a very mediocre Tech defense. They too would throw and put up a TD or two. Who was going to run to stop the clock in this 2nd half? Nobody. Bingo, second half over comes in by the end of the 3rd quarter and Tech 2nd half side comes in too. Two very big plays for me that saved the day.
Now lets look at last night's Colorado St at BYU game. I didn't play bases last night or the other game, so I'm watching this one from the get go. If memory serves me right the posted game total was someting like 54 or so and was exceeded in the first half. The Rams clearly the dominant team and BYU not getting much of anything going. One of their first half scores was a 10 yd drive after a fumble recovery. I do not see Sonny Lubick intentionally running up the score but I do see him running almost exclusively in the 2nd half. And I can't see BYU scoring much either in fact they too weren't a bad bet to run the ball just to keep the score down. They were whipped at the half. A quick check on the screen and the 2nd half total is 27.5 but one of my outs has a 28. Iv'e already got the Rams for the game. I play the U28 for a little less than my game bet to insure a profit.
I have almost entirely stopped playing the NFL except for Monday nite
A lot of these situations can be found in college hoops where emotional up and downs are more pronounced than in the pro game IMO.
I did not make this post to gloat as I am only very slightly up this year and without these games I'd be down a few units. I made this post to maybe help a few newbies in a type of wager that, unlike my other wagers, has been close to a 58% proposition for over the last few years. There have been times I have felt this is the only type of wager I should make, but there are so many games that offer no clear cut choice at the half and, of course, then there would be no action. I feel I would just end up forcing a bet and the advantage would be lost.
