This WE fights

tonymontana+ · Mar 9, 2004

1.Mosley vs Winky

We had this before. My play here is winky via dec. for +450. The more i think about this fight, the more i like Winky.
Mosley is moving more and more in the direction of relying power punching and doesnt use his jab like he did in the first oscar fight.
I hope and believe that Winky will deliver 40+ jabs per round.
Motivation should be an non issue for Winky, that his chance to shine. For Mosley it is just a keep busy fight with bigger things to happen (Trinidad).
Also the over is interesting but at -230, you have to lay alot.

2.Mesi vs Jirov

If Jirov is fighting as usual he gets knocked out. If he fights clever and comes out of the first four rounds without getting knocked down he has a good chance to win.
In my opinion Jirov has it in his own hand to win this fight.
Most probably Jirov gets Koed but if the fight goes the distance Jirov has a great chance to pull it off. I mean he is throwing nearly the double amount of punches and I dont believe in Mesi boxing skills. He is pretty fast and hits really hard especially in the first rounds.
Mesi via KO at +152 is a very fair price and Jirov via dec at +545 is way out of line IMO.
My Plays :
Mosley vs Winky over
Winky dec
Mesi KO
Jirov dec.

Mosley KO and Mesi dec would hurt, but what can you do ?

Gillian · Mar 9, 2004

Jirov by KO

Winky by Decision

franks. · Mar 9, 2004

What I don't like is Mesi saying how he wasn't
fully prepared for Barrett last time out. How
we will see the REAL Mesi this time. Why wasn't
he prepared? Who stopped him? Sounds like BS to me. Jirov ALWAYS comes ready. I've been following the many opinions on this and almost to a man it seems if it goes into deeper water
Joe is in deep poop. Personally, I got to stay
away here; at least for now. This one stinks
just a little too much for my sensitive nostrils. The main event is also a tad tough to
try and call. I got no feel for anything this
weekend, and I've seen all these guys fight on
many occasions. HELP!.

hardcorecap · Mar 10, 2004

Mesi suffered a cut in training for the Barrett fight, and didnt spar for 3 weeks from what i heard. That is the reasoning behind him being out of shape for the fight. Honeslty i think he was dominating until he faded, and Barrett dug down and kept moving which gave Joe a ton of problems as well.
I think Jirov is custom made for Mesi though, with his come forward style, i see him eating some huge shots early. I think Mesi by knockout is a good selection.
As far Mosley, i see him surprising some people, even though i feel that Winky has a great chance. Watching Sugar on his training video on Maxboxing, he looked so crisp. The guy is too fast for most guys this size. I see Mosley by late TKO. Good luck guys

sphincter · Mar 10, 2004

i like t.m.`s hedge on mesi/jirov.....but,i liked the hedge in corrales/casamayor(mcgirt sucks)....

a guy i respect said that he thinks that jirov WILL get by the first few rounds and that his amateur and pro pedigree and toughness will expose mesi eventually..he says that mesi has 3 things going for him....1). he`s white....2).he`s white....3).and he`s white...

he thinks he`s a total fraud.......that he felt as though mesi was pretty much exposed by barrett...that mesi is very soft to the body.......and he expects jirov`s body work to be the difference......as a matter of fact,he`s saying blowout...

how`s that for going out on a limb?.....i like the hedge myself...

as far as mosely/wright......wright looked old in his last 2.....but,as tony said,mosely seems to have changed his style a bit.... ..and i have to say that his short stint vs over-the- hill lefty raul marquez wasn`t terribly impressive(as short as it was)...

winky faded badly vs vargas in a fight he should have won...

i like tony`s card..did put a little on the over when it opened at -170...

...except instead of hedging jirov decision i`ll just hedge with a jirov win...and i`ll throw a small side wager on winky...even though mosely is a solid step above anyone that winky`s ever been in with....

a throw away that i expect to lose...but the odds are to tempting....i hope winky doesn`t fold and get stopped....he has to be super motivated..he loses and he`s done,imo.....that loss to vargas(who i think is way overrated) is very scary...

wright`s big problem besides mosely`s speed is the fact that mosely will get the decision if it`s close...anything close....even if wright seems to have a slight edge(like vs vargas)....

who you think people are gonna pay for?....wright-trinidad or mosely trinidad?.....a no-brainer...

speaking of tempting,i`m tempted to lose more money betting against john ruiz....5 dimes has oquendo at +155....this "left-right, clinch" p-ick has cost me more money than any other boxer...you can`t punch and fall in with him...he pot shots and then grabs you.......you have to box a bit and pick your spots to set down....keep him outside....oquendo is quicker and a better boxer...stamina has looked questionnable in several fights,though...

and a throw away on ex-amateur star(2 wins over cotto) and k.o. artist kelson pinto vs ricky hatton at +525 is appealing...

not anxious to give all of last years winnings away on crazy dogs....but the odds are susbstantial on some solid fighters...

agree with much of tony`s write up...

[This message was edited by sphincter on March 11, 2004 at 01:46 AM.]

Big-KO · Mar 11, 2004

Jirov by Ko, also.

Winky by SPLIT DEC.

tonymontana+ · Mar 11, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
i like t.m.`s hedge on mesi/jirov.....but,i liked the hedge in corrales/casamayor(mcgirt sucks)....

a guy i respect said that he thinks that jirov WILL get by the first few rounds and that his amateur and pro pedigree and toughness will expose mesi eventually..he says that mesi has 3 things going for him....1). he`s white....2).he`s white....3).and he`s white...

he thinks he`s a total fraud.......that he felt as though mesi was pretty much exposed by barrett...that mesi is very soft to the body.......and he expects jirov`s body work to be the difference......as a matter of fact,he`s saying blowout...

how`s that for going out on a limb?.....i like the hedge myself...

as far as mosely/wright......wright looked old in his last 2.....but,as tony said,mosely seems to have changed his style a bit.... ..and i have to say that his short stint vs over-the- hill lefty raul marquez wasn`t terribly impressive(as short as it was)...

winky faded badly vs vargas in a fight he should have won...

i like tony`s card..did put a little on the over when it opened at -170...

...except instead of hedging jirov decision i`ll just hedge with a jirov win...and i`ll throw a small side wager on winky...even though mosely is a solid step above anyone that winky`s ever been in with....

a throw away that i expect to lose...but the odds are to tempting....i hope winky doesn`t fold and get stopped....he has to be super motivated..he loses and he`s done,imo.....that loss to vargas(who i think is way overrated) is very scary...

wright`s big problem besides mosely`s speed is the fact that mosely will get the decision if it`s close...anything close....even if wright seems to have a slight edge(like vs vargas)....

who you think people are gonna pay for?....wright-trinidad or mosely trinidad?.....a no-brainer...

speaking of tempting,i`m tempted to lose more money betting against john ruiz....5 dimes has oquendo at +155....this "left-right, clinch" p-ick has cost me more money than any other boxer...you can`t punch and fall in with him...he pot shots and then grabs you.......you have to box a bit and pick your spots to set down....keep him outside....oquendo is quicker and a better boxer...stamina has looked questionnable in several fights,though...

and a throw away on ex-amateur star(2 wins over cotto) and k.o. artist kelson pinto vs ricky hatton at +525 is appealing...

not anxious to give all of last years winnings away on crazy dogs....but the odds are susbstantial on some solid fighters...

agree with much of tony`s write up...

[This message was edited by sphincter on March 11, 2004 at 01:46 AM.]<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

That Casa/Corrales hegde was a bitch, but you were not alone on that one.
I am not betting alot of money on neither fight but I played a lot of parlays to get all the fights, which have value (de la Hoya -800 and Hopkins and I hope the danish fighter are doing well this weekend too.)
It is a little soon but what about Vitali vs Sanders and Byrd vs Golota ?

John Ruiz will get what he deserves sooner or later, but is big O the one to do it ?
I cant help you here, sorry.
Pinto has def. value.

Another fight I am looking at is Holmes vs Toygonbayev.
Why is Holmes the dog in that fight. He was in there with HOP for 12 rounds has 4 inches on his opponent, who lost to Ouma.
But it is pretty hard to find information for that fight, only thing clearly riding for Togybayev is age. I got Togybayev at a good price, should I buy back ?