Notre Dame could very well win straight up. Louisville has looked terrible on the road lately. The last game against St. John's, they struggled and won it in the last 4 minutes. They got creamed by UConn and barely beat West Virginia. Plus they had to beat Notre Dame (at Freedom Hall) in OT last time they played
I have made a lot of money this year on fading Notre Dame because I knew they would suck when everyone had them so high.
Louisville is streaky and if they are missing (which they do more on the road) ... they will lose.