Bet the under 52 seats held by Republicans on Jan 29 at Pinnacle. All calculations point to at best 52 seats with a lot of plausible ways for 51 or even 50 seats held. Chances of 53 or more are looking very slim, so you basically are freerolling unless some very big developments occur. The Presidential election is a bunch of things rolled up into one, but the Senate races are all getting defined early and won't be as subject to sudden swings in voter sentiment.
GOP has 51 right now. They will lose the Illinois seat, but should pick up Georgia and South Carolina rather easily. They also have solid shots at Louisiana, Florida, South Dakota, and North Carolina...all currently held by Dems. The GOP is in trouble in Colorado and Alaska, but everywhere else they look pretty strong. I wouldn't touch the under at all, especially the way Kerry is campaigning...a demoralized base may just skip the election.
If Kerry does come off the mat and wins the election, Kerry's replacement will be named by a GOP govenor as well.
If Kerry does come off the mat and wins the election, Kerry's replacement will be named by a GOP govenor as well.
You are working with the old info, the story before the campaigning began. I am working with the latest polling and analysis which says chances are very good of a 51 or 52 seat position. By most calculations to get to 53 they would have to win 3 seats out of 5 races where their candidate is currently trailing. Not impossible, but not likely either.
Break it down for me Bill. Illinois is a Dem pickup, and South Carolina/Georgia are GOP pickups. There are 6 toss-up races in the Senate this year: Florida (Dem seat), Louisiana (Dem seat), South Dakota (Dem seat), North Carolina (Dem seat), Colorado (GOP), and Alaska (GOP). If the GOP splits these 6, they are at 53 seats. What polling have you found that show the Dems winning at least 4 of those 6 seats?
All of them have a Dem currently ahead other than Louisiana, and that is partly because the Dems have two candidates in the primary and the GOP has one which will change going into a likely runoff. Louisiana has not elected a Republican senator since the 1800s.
Alaska and Colorado look like legitimate shots for Dem wins as both GOP candidates are sort of "name" candidates who haven't won an election in their careers. Daschle looks set in a trend towards victory in SD. NC seat has a surprising lead for former Clinton cabinet member Bowles as he is facing what appears to be a fairly weak opponent. Who knows with Florida, the Dem is slightly ahead but this one might coattail the Presidential election.
Alaska and Colorado look like legitimate shots for Dem wins as both GOP candidates are sort of "name" candidates who haven't won an election in their careers. Daschle looks set in a trend towards victory in SD. NC seat has a surprising lead for former Clinton cabinet member Bowles as he is facing what appears to be a fairly weak opponent. Who knows with Florida, the Dem is slightly ahead but this one might coattail the Presidential election.
I've seen polls showing Thune ahead in SD and Martinez ahead in Florida. But all will be close at election day. Here's a good wrapup...
http://www.nationalreview.com/miller/miller200408310227.asp
http://www.nationalreview.com/miller/miller200408310227.asp
