Hey all. I was just thinking of something, and it made sense to me, but I may have overlooked a possible hole in my thinking.
Anyway, here goes.
Let's say you were thinking of doing a 5 way teaser and you could somehow magically predict that 4 of the 5 would hit (just assume for the sake of this thinking).
Now, would it be +EV to try take both aspects of a teaser on one game. For instance, this weekend, the Colts/Chargers game. Would it be +EV to take two 6 point teasers and hit up Colts -1.5 and Charger +13.5 simultaneously, with the other four picks being the same?
Let's put some numbers to this. Let's say you had $500 on each teaser, paying out 6 to 1.
I figure that these are the possible scenarios:
--------
Everything
plus Colts -1.5
Everything
plus Chargers +13.5
So the two are mutually exclusive, Colts and Chargers, with the possibility that the two could both hit. Assuming that my other games hit, then what would happen if...
Colts win by 14 or more
500 to 3000, 2500 net
lose 500
---
2000 net
Colts win by between 2 and 13
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
----
5000 net
Chargers win or Colts win by 1
lose 500
500 to 3000, 2500 net
----
2000 net
or...I could lose 1000 if any of the other four didn't hit.
--------
So is this a viable strategy? It gives me a fairly large middle, and with my other teams having hit (assumedly), I don't lose too much ($500 opportunity cost, it looks like). What do y'all think?
Anyway, here goes.
Let's say you were thinking of doing a 5 way teaser and you could somehow magically predict that 4 of the 5 would hit (just assume for the sake of this thinking).
Now, would it be +EV to try take both aspects of a teaser on one game. For instance, this weekend, the Colts/Chargers game. Would it be +EV to take two 6 point teasers and hit up Colts -1.5 and Charger +13.5 simultaneously, with the other four picks being the same?
Let's put some numbers to this. Let's say you had $500 on each teaser, paying out 6 to 1.
I figure that these are the possible scenarios:
--------
Everything
plus Colts -1.5
Everything
plus Chargers +13.5
So the two are mutually exclusive, Colts and Chargers, with the possibility that the two could both hit. Assuming that my other games hit, then what would happen if...
Colts win by 14 or more
500 to 3000, 2500 net
lose 500
---
2000 net
Colts win by between 2 and 13
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
500 to win 3000, 2500 net
----
5000 net
Chargers win or Colts win by 1
lose 500
500 to 3000, 2500 net
----
2000 net
or...I could lose 1000 if any of the other four didn't hit.
--------
So is this a viable strategy? It gives me a fairly large middle, and with my other teams having hit (assumedly), I don't lose too much ($500 opportunity cost, it looks like). What do y'all think?