Theories on halftime sides/totals???

[Journeyman]

I have always wondered when the oddsmaker hangs that halftime line (in basketball and football even) are they using a 'chart' of some sort? There is not enough time to go into great detail and analysis, so how could they ?

And also what is your best theory regarding halftime wagers? If a favorite is up big at the half, it seems it would favor the UNDER for 2nd half, that is IF the game continues to be lopsided....

Is there any general rule of thumb in certain halftime scenarios?

 

[JudgeWapner]

I tend to play the side which would gravitate back to the closing line.

 

[THE SHRINK]

If the Major Move (Syndicate Play) is LOSING at halftime, it may be a good idea to take that team and actually get a better number than what the Originator had...

THE SHRINK

 

[Fishhead]

Many amatuer bookmakers make the mistake of not treating halftime lines as a COMPLETELY different entity than the game itself.

There are occassions where as a bookmaker you may shade the halftime a tad, but overall I am of the firm belief that for the most part it should be treated as a different entity.

 

[Rogthedodger]

I'm of the firm belief that many times the books make a mistake and don't treat the 2H as a separate situation as Fish suggests. I think many times the books are guilty of what bettors do all the time, they are chasing............

 

[Mr.Jones]

Agree with Judge. Look for side to gravitate toward original line. But also for totals to do the same.

With totals watch an unusual low or high score in 1st half. Check shooting %'s in first half. Unusual high % will likely go lower and conversely unusual low % will likely climb. These type of games are gold.

The last two nights I've hit pretty big with Lakers at Philly and last night Utah at Phoenix. Last night Utah and Phoenix were playing a fast paced game but both shooting in the low 30's. It seemed almost a given that the awful shooting %'s in the 1st half of those those two games would revert to a normal second half total which reflected the original total hung for the game in the second half. And they will generally hang a number which is about half of what the original total was.

I constantly scan cbssportsline during 1st halfs to see stats which reflect such abnormalities. Probability for 2nd half total wagering is pretty good using this method and if nothing else surely beats playing the original game total. One last thing don't bite on the probability that these 1st half aberrations will continue. They usually don't.

Also look at games which seem to be heading to possible outcomes of 4 or 5 point differences toward the end of the game. This will bring the foul game into play and generally give you your second half over. Hope this helps.

 

[Mr.Jones]

One thing I forgot to add. Last night Utah was showing a complete and unexpected domination in both offensive and defensive rebounds especially on the offensive glass with many more second chance opportunities during the 1st half. This indicated to me that the +5 Utah was getting also might be a good probability regardless of the original line. It turned out to be the right call also.

 

[1cheater]

AWESOME information here guys..

Thanks

 

[Journeyman]

This would appear to be the easiest way to find value then,right?

So many halftime lines seem to coincide with the original line, which really doesn`t add up..its if the book is forced at times to put a certain number according to the halftime score...One thing I have noticed is its very difficult to beat the side and total, does anyone else agree you should almost never bet side and total at the half? I`m talking more basketball than football when I say this...

 

[Mr.Jones]

Journey,

If you are asking me, IMHO they are the easiest way to find value.
Over the years my winning % is a bit higher on 2nd half bets. You are afterall dealing with a formula line more often than not.

But so many things come into play.

2nd halfs are so often chase bets people make based on panicked emotion with clouded judgement. Thus the books don't suffer from them.

And of course most us of want action so when sitting through an evening with no game plays, again you may eventually make 2nd half bets based on no clear advantage just to get some action.

After spending the last hour with this thread I would really like to try just being patient and looking for just these once in a while 2nd half opportunities for a few nights.

But I got to quit writing now cause there are three games starting within the next hour and I need some action.

 

[Journeyman]

I agree and this is exactly my problem, the NEED for ACTION! I think if a player can control the urge for action and only play where there is true value...HALFTIME`S are where its really at....Like you said the bookmaker`s hand is forced to use a formula at the half...this is really the only time the bookmaker isn`t giving his best opinion...logically then this would be their weak spot...doesn`t this really make sense?

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> One thing I have noticed is its very difficult to beat the side and total, does anyone else agree you should almost never bet side and total at the half? I`m talking more basketball than football when I say this... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Always better to pick your best and hammer it than try and hit two IMO.