thefriedone's Four Factors System

[thefriedone]

I've been having good success creating lines using the Four Factors (http://statsheet.com/blog/the-four-factors-to-winning-at-basketball) over the past 2 weeks, so I am going to start recording my plays here every day to have an official record.

Almost all plays will be to win one unit against the spread, although occasionally I will take the moneyline when the spread is small.

Overall record: 0-0-0, +0.0 units

Today's plays:

Wake +1.5
Tulane +7
Morehead +4.5

Here we go.

 

[thefriedone]

Adding 2 more:

St. Bona +1.5
SDSU +1.5

 

[ScreaminPain]

I've been having good success creating lines using the Four Factors (http://statsheet.com/blog/the-four-factors-to-winning-at-basketball) over the past 2 weeks,
Today's plays:

Interesting! I've toyed with the analyitics of using the "four factors" as a predictive tool, but quite honestly I can't find a suitable formula that is effective. I posted a query on another board asking if anyone had perfected a suitable formula, but no one had any luck with it. I calculate the four factors daily as a routine on my spreadsheet, but use it primarily for tie-breaking purposes. I'd like to know how you apply the factors, maybe collaboration will produce something useful.

Good Luck on your action...

 

[jimmyshivers]

glad to see you posting your plays my friend, I've become a big fan on some of the new analytical methods myself over the last few years. Kenpom well worth the 20 bucks this year. On Georgia Tech myself tonight but BOL with your plays

 

[thenatti]

Good Luck!!!

 

[thefriedone]

Wake +1.5
Tulane +7
Morehead +4.5
St. Bona +1.5
SDSU +1.5

2-3 yesterday, -1.3 units

Overall: 2-3, -1.3 units

Three plays today:

Iowa +2.5
W Kentucky +1.5
Mississippi +3.5

 

[Willye]

As most everyone knows im a pure numbers guy nice site you got there i would adjust the factors into what you think winning basketball games is effected by

It takes alot of time but basketball is changing that those factors will change als
Best of luck

 

[thenatti]

Is it a coincidence your system has only played dogs? Curious how you have translated the factors into a formula...

 

[thefriedone]

Iowa +2.5
W Kentucky +1.5
Mississippi +3.5

Yesterday: 1-2, -1.2 units

Overall: 3-5, -2.5 units

No plays today.

Not sure whether I'll have any spare bankroll for plays tomorrow since I'm playing the Bracketbusters totals system. Although I think I might be able to kill the lines on the Bracketbuster teams that don't normally get lines, so we'll see.

Is it a coincidence your system has only played dogs? Curious how you have translated the factors into a formula...

Yes and no. Basically I have a program that creates lines for each game. It's based mostly on the Four Factors, but also incorporates average win/loss margin and a slight additional penalty for losses.

I've found that my lines aren't consistently more accurate than Vegas overall, BUT I have been successful with the small subset of games where my program flags the opposite team as the favorite from Vegas. For example, say the official line is Virginia -2 but my program shows Florida State -2, I will play the FSU +2 line since I think they should be favored.

So no, it doesn't pick dogs by design. But it happens that most of the plays are dogs, especially home dogs. There will be an occasional favorite play though.

 

[thefriedone]

One play for now, will probably add a few throughout the day:

LSU +3

 

[thefriedone]

Next play:

UMKC (PK)

 

[thefriedone]

Adding:

Albany -1
Delaware St +3

 

[Betsmart]

Bol

 

[thefriedone]

Thanks.

Last 5 plays of the day:

Tulane +7
Troy +5.5
Youngstown State +2.5
UCSB +2
CS Northridge +4

One note: thenatti, you're right. I was confusing my current criteria with some that I had in the past, but yes, every play will be a dog. This is because my system only flags teams who are underdogs in Vegas, but predicted favorites by my metrics. So basically all of my plays are on undervalued dogs.

 

[thefriedone]

Obviously I bet Albany as a favorite, which contradicts what I just said. This is because I crunched the numbers this morning when Albany was a +1 dog. My program predicted them as favorites, but by the time I bet the line they were down to -1. So ideally I would have gotten the play in at +1 but c'est la vie.

 

[thefriedone]

LSU +3
UMKC (PK)
Albany -1
Delaware St +3
Tulane +7
Troy +5.5
Youngstown State +2.5
UCSB +2
CS Northridge +4

Yesterday 4-5, -1.5 units

Overall 7-10, -4 units

Can't quite seem to manage to put together a winning day, but I'm sticking with this. Had a few 5-1 type days last week so I still think it will come around.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Can't quite seem to manage to put together a winning day, but I'm sticking with this. Had a few 5-1 type days last week so I still think it will come around.

What are the parameters that you're using?

 

[thefriedone]

Like I said above, the 4 factors plus average win/loss margin and number of losses.

No plays today.

 

[thefriedone]

Just one today:

UMD +2.5

 

[thefriedone]

UMD +2.5

1-0 on the day, +1 unit

Overall 8-10, -3 units