| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Don't know how real these numbers are .. 72% likes KC
Nope, no stats, lol. I love to bet NFL, and noticed this over 30 years of betting the NFL. You will lose way more than you win betting on big favs on the road in the NFL............regardless of who is playing. Heck, I don't even bet on big home favorites. I am a firm believer of not laying more than 4 pts. in the NFL............will seriously consider all dogs in that situation. I dont "cap", "crunch" numbers, keep spreadsheets or none of that mess, as I think it's impossible to "cap" these games. I think, its a crapshoot at best. Watch the lines over time...........you will see that betting on big road favs in the NFL will most often than not kick your butt, lol. GL2U.
SD was at home, still don't cover though.
You don't have any stats to back this up? So how do you know? My only guess is you probably bet some big road favs early in your betting career and got your ass kicked? And ever since then you have avoided big road favs? But let's if someone can back up what you are saying?
Can anyone tell us what the SU and ATS #s would be for all road favs in the NFL laying 6.5 points or more in the last 10 years??
Since 2004 season going forward - only lines of -6.5 or more
| SU: | 179-50-1 (9.40, 78.2%) | Teaser Records | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATS: | 112-114-4 (0.83, 49.6%) | avg line: -8.6 | +6: 155-68-7 (69.5%) | -6: 82-148-0 (35.7%) | +10: 179-45-6 (79.9%) | -10: 62-164-4 (27.4%) |
| O/U: | 121-106-3 (2.17, 53.3%) | avg total: 43.3 | +6: 84-144-2 (36.8%) | -6: 163-63-4 (72.1%) | +10: 64-164-2 (28.1%) | -10: 185-41-4 (81.9%) |
Might be a game to pass on...winless team struggling with not much to play for other than pride and the first pick versus a team in a bad spot (just beat a tough Seattle team and has Denver on deck next week). I'd lean Oakland because of the crazy weather and home field...sometimes this board is smart @)
How bad of a play would money-lining KC be? I normally just bet the spread but I've hit my only two money-line bets this year in the NFL. When the line starts creeping 9 or 10 I start finding ways to avoid the game altogether or just money line the favorite if I really think they will win.
I love the theory that Oakland will win at least one game, but I don't see this being one of them. Who knows, maybe they will come out and play tough. I just feel like Oakland really doesn't have anything to play for as to where the Chiefs are having a good season and they probably want to do everything possible to keep that going. Most importantly, the Chiefs are playing great and Oakland is playing terrible. Thoughts?
I love the theory that Oakland will win at least one game, but I don't see this being one of them. Who knows, maybe they will come out and play tough. I just feel like Oakland really doesn't have anything to play for as to where the Chiefs are having a good season and they probably want to do everything possible to keep that going. Most importantly, the Chiefs are playing great and Oakland is playing terrible. Thoughts?
