THE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE IMAGES
DEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125
KNOTS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE
GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE
RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A
LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS.
DEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125
KNOTS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE
GFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE
RIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A
LARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by blue edwards:
fish, better get in the basement. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No underground facilities where I live.
Actually, I will be well above ground level during the storm.
The more I think about this, I am asking myself what I am doing here.
fish, better get in the basement. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No underground facilities where I live.
Actually, I will be well above ground level during the storm.
The more I think about this, I am asking myself what I am doing here.
Fish,
The vast majority of deaths and damage from hurricanes is from the storm surge and from weak construction (ie mobile homes). Considering where you are those aren't big issues so you probably are just as safe as if you hit the road. Just stay inside during the storm and your chances of injury or worse are extremely minimal.
I ought to know, at one point I took a bunch of meteorology classes and wanted to do the weather. I still remember just about everything I did learn, it was the stuff I wasn't learning well that got me in trouble!
The vast majority of deaths and damage from hurricanes is from the storm surge and from weak construction (ie mobile homes). Considering where you are those aren't big issues so you probably are just as safe as if you hit the road. Just stay inside during the storm and your chances of injury or worse are extremely minimal.
I ought to know, at one point I took a bunch of meteorology classes and wanted to do the weather. I still remember just about everything I did learn, it was the stuff I wasn't learning well that got me in trouble!
How the hell do you guys even get insurance in Florida, i worked for State Farm for a summer and I can remember they had to have separate policies for Florida and California (New Jersey for cars) because those places knocked everyone else out of whack otherwise, it almost must be prohibitive to have homeowners insurance there now!
Brock,
It is all just about perception because hurricanes category 2 and below cause fairly minor damage so they don't count and the damage from a bigger storm is very isolated. I know a broker that lives 25 miles from Punta Gorda and is about 500 yards from the Gulf. He had great pictures of the fury of the storm, but short of a broken window and a messed up yard, sustained no damage and the neighborhood was exactly the same.
In classes we were told tornadoes and major snowstorms cause about 10 times the annual damage that hurricanes do. The perception is different because hurricanes are predicted in advance so people sweat the storm for days and huge swaths of land are warned, yet maybe 20% of those warned have to really worry about the effects. Further once you get as little as a mile inland, there is virtually no water damage so as long as you aren't in a poorly constructed building you have little chance of sustaining major damage.
It is all just about perception because hurricanes category 2 and below cause fairly minor damage so they don't count and the damage from a bigger storm is very isolated. I know a broker that lives 25 miles from Punta Gorda and is about 500 yards from the Gulf. He had great pictures of the fury of the storm, but short of a broken window and a messed up yard, sustained no damage and the neighborhood was exactly the same.
In classes we were told tornadoes and major snowstorms cause about 10 times the annual damage that hurricanes do. The perception is different because hurricanes are predicted in advance so people sweat the storm for days and huge swaths of land are warned, yet maybe 20% of those warned have to really worry about the effects. Further once you get as little as a mile inland, there is virtually no water damage so as long as you aren't in a poorly constructed building you have little chance of sustaining major damage.
Wildbill, last one few weeks ago came right through my town and demmolished it. Some pics from it I took.........
Far worse damage out there but I didn't have the time or the any freakin way to recharge camera batteries since we didnt have electriciy or running water for 2 weeks.
Far worse damage out there but I didn't have the time or the any freakin way to recharge camera batteries since we didnt have electriciy or running water for 2 weeks.
