[h=1]The value of in-game betting[/h][h=3]How to weigh "middle" opportunities; plus, tips on first- and second-half wagers[/h]
[h=1]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
[/h]
LAS VEGAS -- It's been two weeks since our last "Tuesdays With Tuley" column, and I've been happy to hear that some of you have been betting the first halves of the football playoffs, as discussed in that column.
As pointed out in that piece, first-half underdogs were a combined 4-0-2 ATS in the NFL wild-card playoffs and the College Football Playoff semifinals. The following weekend, NFL first-half underdogs went 4-0 ATS and Ohio State covered in the title game. Last weekend, Green Bay easily covered as a first-half underdog with a 16-0 halftime lead at Seattle before the run finally ended with New England covering minus-4 with a 17-7 halftime lead over Indianapolis.
That makes football playoff underdogs 10-1-2 ATS. Now, as I stressed in that article, it's not always this easy or one-sided, but what I also tried to make clear is that my overriding point was to find spots where it's to your advantage to shorten the game.
In my case as an underdog bettor, I'm looking to bet first halves when I believe the underdog can stick around but I'm afraid it might get run over late. The strategy has worked well in the NFL this postseason as first-half underdogs are 8-1-1 ATS while those same underdogs are 6-4 ATS overall and only 2-8 SU. However, I also tried to stress that it can help to look at favorites in the first half if you really believe they'll dominate from the start and you don't want to worry about a backdoor cover.
With the Super Bowl line still hovering around pick 'em, we might not even have an underdog, but that doesn't mean we have to file away this first-half betting advice until next football season. It also applies to basketball, especially college basketball, where there can be a mismatch of talent but you might find an underdog to stay with the better team for 20 minutes (or a favorite you like to grab an early lead and coast while clearing its bench in the second half).
For this week's Q&A, I'll answer a question from the comments section of that first-half betting column that provides a nice follow-up discussion.
Dave Morris from Delaware (comment from Jan. 6 "Tuesdays With Tuley" column)
Q: Question for you regarding halftime middle opportunities. Is this something you are looking at doing often and if so, is there a particularly threshold for the various sports where you say you have to take advantage? Also, do you look for a 100% middle or perhaps a portion of your original wager? I have been tracking halftime middle opportunities, particularly in the NBA, and find it's kind of all over the place. I am really curious to know if there is a particular point threshold where you say, "Ok, I am up 15 ATS at the half and now have to take the other side laying 7 because I have an 8-point middle opportunity."
Tuley
A: Yes, I'm always looking at halftime lines (and in-game lines for that matter) for possible middles. But you're on the right path that you shouldn't only be looking at trying to hit those. I've always told people that I consider how much doubt I have in my original wager at the time I'm making the second bet, such as halftime. If I'm really confident my original wager is going to cash, I won't hedge/shoot for a middle at all or very little, like 10 percent. The more doubt I have, the more I'm willing to bet back and all the way up to 100 percent or even go over the top on the other side if that looks like the more likely outcome.
For instance, in the divisional playoffs, I had Baltimore plus-4 in the first half at New England as well as plus-7.5 for the game. The Ravens led 21-14 at halftime, so I cashed my first-half wager, but I was concerned that the Patriots could rally and cover the spread, so I bet back half my game wager on New England minus-7 so I had a nice 7.5-point middle working for me in addition to protecting my original game wager. It worked out perfectly as the Patriots won 35-31. (Note: That same day, I would have done the same thing in the Carolina-Seattle game except I didn't bet the Panthers' game spread, but the same situation applied, although in that case the Seahawks rallied and covered so the middle didn't hit.)
Last Sunday, I had Green Bay plus-8.5 at Seattle in addition to my first-half bet, but I chose not to bet the Seahawks minus-7.5 in the second half because I felt really good with my plus-8.5 ticket with the Packers leading 16-0 and didn't want to give back any profits if the Packers rolled to victory. As it turned out, the middle did hit with the Seahawks winning 28-22 in overtime, but I believe I made the right call in that situation.
It can be quite lucrative to shoot for those middles, but don't put yourself in a position where you might break even when your original wager was a winner. I equate it to having two face cards when playing 21; sure, you could split them and maybe get two 20s, but it's just as likely that you get a face card on one hand but then a 5 or 6 on the other and end up splitting.
Back to basketball: I don't have a specific number of points or percentage of wager to pass on as it also depends on what you see during first-half action. So that's where it comes down to how confident you are in the original wager and whether your follow-up bet is more of a hedge or a shot at a middle to determine if you risk a little or a lot.
This last section will be where I clean out my reporter's notebook (and hopefully items relevant to sports betting aficionados):
• Since LeBron James took his talents back to Cleveland, most of the NBA futures talk has revolved around if the Cavaliers or the San Antonio Spurs should be favored. But they're no longer atop the Westgate SuperBook future-book list. That distinction now belongs to the Atlanta Hawks at 5-1 as they're on a 13-game winning streak and hold the best record in the Eastern Conference at 34-8 (81 percent). The Golden State Warriors have the Association's best record at 33-6 (84.6 percent) and join the Cavs and Spurs as second-highest choices at 6-1, followed by the Chicago Bulls at 7-1 and then a drop-off to the Oklahoma City Thunder (currently ninth in the West), Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks (all at 12-1).
• In the other major team sports, the Chicago Blackhawks are the 4-1 favorite to win the Stanley Cup, with the Anaheim Ducks at 6-1 and the Boston Bruins and New York Rangers at 10-1; undefeated Kentucky is the 4-5 favorite to win the NCAA men's basketball title; and the Washington Nationals are now the 5-1 favorite (they were 8-1 last week) to win the World Series after signing Max Scherzer on Sunday, with the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6-1, the Los Angeles Angels at 8-1, the St. Louis Cardinals and Seattle Mariners both at 12-1, and the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs at 14-1.
• It's become tradition during the bye week before the Super Bowl for the horse racing world to stage its championship for horse players. This Friday through Sunday, the Treasure Island Resort-Casino will host the 16th annual Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship. The field of players who had to earn their way into the finale through qualifying events held throughout the past year will be aiming for the $750,000 first-place prize (the record purse hasn't been announced yet as it could still grow from the Last Chance Tournament being held Thursday, also at Treasure Island). Full details here. I've covered the NHC finals every year since its inception, so please say hello if you're down at the TI.
Until next time, happy handicapping!
[h=1]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- It's been two weeks since our last "Tuesdays With Tuley" column, and I've been happy to hear that some of you have been betting the first halves of the football playoffs, as discussed in that column.
As pointed out in that piece, first-half underdogs were a combined 4-0-2 ATS in the NFL wild-card playoffs and the College Football Playoff semifinals. The following weekend, NFL first-half underdogs went 4-0 ATS and Ohio State covered in the title game. Last weekend, Green Bay easily covered as a first-half underdog with a 16-0 halftime lead at Seattle before the run finally ended with New England covering minus-4 with a 17-7 halftime lead over Indianapolis.
That makes football playoff underdogs 10-1-2 ATS. Now, as I stressed in that article, it's not always this easy or one-sided, but what I also tried to make clear is that my overriding point was to find spots where it's to your advantage to shorten the game.
In my case as an underdog bettor, I'm looking to bet first halves when I believe the underdog can stick around but I'm afraid it might get run over late. The strategy has worked well in the NFL this postseason as first-half underdogs are 8-1-1 ATS while those same underdogs are 6-4 ATS overall and only 2-8 SU. However, I also tried to stress that it can help to look at favorites in the first half if you really believe they'll dominate from the start and you don't want to worry about a backdoor cover.
With the Super Bowl line still hovering around pick 'em, we might not even have an underdog, but that doesn't mean we have to file away this first-half betting advice until next football season. It also applies to basketball, especially college basketball, where there can be a mismatch of talent but you might find an underdog to stay with the better team for 20 minutes (or a favorite you like to grab an early lead and coast while clearing its bench in the second half).
[h=3]Q&A[/h]For this week's Q&A, I'll answer a question from the comments section of that first-half betting column that provides a nice follow-up discussion.
Dave Morris from Delaware (comment from Jan. 6 "Tuesdays With Tuley" column)
Q: Question for you regarding halftime middle opportunities. Is this something you are looking at doing often and if so, is there a particularly threshold for the various sports where you say you have to take advantage? Also, do you look for a 100% middle or perhaps a portion of your original wager? I have been tracking halftime middle opportunities, particularly in the NBA, and find it's kind of all over the place. I am really curious to know if there is a particular point threshold where you say, "Ok, I am up 15 ATS at the half and now have to take the other side laying 7 because I have an 8-point middle opportunity."
Tuley
A: Yes, I'm always looking at halftime lines (and in-game lines for that matter) for possible middles. But you're on the right path that you shouldn't only be looking at trying to hit those. I've always told people that I consider how much doubt I have in my original wager at the time I'm making the second bet, such as halftime. If I'm really confident my original wager is going to cash, I won't hedge/shoot for a middle at all or very little, like 10 percent. The more doubt I have, the more I'm willing to bet back and all the way up to 100 percent or even go over the top on the other side if that looks like the more likely outcome.
For instance, in the divisional playoffs, I had Baltimore plus-4 in the first half at New England as well as plus-7.5 for the game. The Ravens led 21-14 at halftime, so I cashed my first-half wager, but I was concerned that the Patriots could rally and cover the spread, so I bet back half my game wager on New England minus-7 so I had a nice 7.5-point middle working for me in addition to protecting my original game wager. It worked out perfectly as the Patriots won 35-31. (Note: That same day, I would have done the same thing in the Carolina-Seattle game except I didn't bet the Panthers' game spread, but the same situation applied, although in that case the Seahawks rallied and covered so the middle didn't hit.)
Last Sunday, I had Green Bay plus-8.5 at Seattle in addition to my first-half bet, but I chose not to bet the Seahawks minus-7.5 in the second half because I felt really good with my plus-8.5 ticket with the Packers leading 16-0 and didn't want to give back any profits if the Packers rolled to victory. As it turned out, the middle did hit with the Seahawks winning 28-22 in overtime, but I believe I made the right call in that situation.
It can be quite lucrative to shoot for those middles, but don't put yourself in a position where you might break even when your original wager was a winner. I equate it to having two face cards when playing 21; sure, you could split them and maybe get two 20s, but it's just as likely that you get a face card on one hand but then a 5 or 6 on the other and end up splitting.
Back to basketball: I don't have a specific number of points or percentage of wager to pass on as it also depends on what you see during first-half action. So that's where it comes down to how confident you are in the original wager and whether your follow-up bet is more of a hedge or a shot at a middle to determine if you risk a little or a lot.
[h=3]Sports book news and notes[/h]This last section will be where I clean out my reporter's notebook (and hopefully items relevant to sports betting aficionados):
• Since LeBron James took his talents back to Cleveland, most of the NBA futures talk has revolved around if the Cavaliers or the San Antonio Spurs should be favored. But they're no longer atop the Westgate SuperBook future-book list. That distinction now belongs to the Atlanta Hawks at 5-1 as they're on a 13-game winning streak and hold the best record in the Eastern Conference at 34-8 (81 percent). The Golden State Warriors have the Association's best record at 33-6 (84.6 percent) and join the Cavs and Spurs as second-highest choices at 6-1, followed by the Chicago Bulls at 7-1 and then a drop-off to the Oklahoma City Thunder (currently ninth in the West), Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks (all at 12-1).
• In the other major team sports, the Chicago Blackhawks are the 4-1 favorite to win the Stanley Cup, with the Anaheim Ducks at 6-1 and the Boston Bruins and New York Rangers at 10-1; undefeated Kentucky is the 4-5 favorite to win the NCAA men's basketball title; and the Washington Nationals are now the 5-1 favorite (they were 8-1 last week) to win the World Series after signing Max Scherzer on Sunday, with the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6-1, the Los Angeles Angels at 8-1, the St. Louis Cardinals and Seattle Mariners both at 12-1, and the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs at 14-1.
• It's become tradition during the bye week before the Super Bowl for the horse racing world to stage its championship for horse players. This Friday through Sunday, the Treasure Island Resort-Casino will host the 16th annual Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship. The field of players who had to earn their way into the finale through qualifying events held throughout the past year will be aiming for the $750,000 first-place prize (the record purse hasn't been announced yet as it could still grow from the Last Chance Tournament being held Thursday, also at Treasure Island). Full details here. I've covered the NHC finals every year since its inception, so please say hello if you're down at the TI.
Until next time, happy handicapping!
