The truth about Polling from the 2004 Election

[primetime21+]

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" id="AutoNumber2" width="630" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="9" width="601">
Pollster Vote Projections</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td valign="top" width="175"> DETAILS</td> <td valign="bottom" width="80" align="left"> Survey</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> BUSH</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> KERRY</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> NADER</td> <td valign="bottom" width="57" align="center"> OTHER</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td colspan="2" valign="bottom" width="102" align="center"> Margin</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">
</td> <td width="80" align="left"> Dates</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="57" align="center"> %</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td width="45" align="center"> Bush</td> <td width="57" align="center"> Kerry</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">
</td> <td width="80">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> <td width="19">
</td> <td width="45">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175"> Zogby</td> <td width="80" align="left"> 11/1-2</td> <td width="56" align="center"> 49.4</td> <td width="56" align="center"> 49.1</td> <td width="56" align="center">
</td> <td width="57" align="center">
</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 0.3</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Battleground: Tarrance (R) *</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/31 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 51.2</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 47.8</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 0.5</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 0.5</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 3.4</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Battleground: Lake (D) **</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/31 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48.6</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 50.7</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> TIPP</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/30 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 50.1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48.0</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1.1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 0.8</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 2.1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Harris</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Democracy Corps (D)</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48.7</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 49.5</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 0.6</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1.0</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 0.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Gallup</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Pew Research Center</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/27-30</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 51</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 3</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td colspan="9" width="601"> <hr size="1" color="#c0c0c0"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">
</td> <td width="80">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> <td width="19">
</td> <td width="45">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">

Final Trial Heats ***​

</td> <td valign="bottom" width="80" align="left">
</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center">
</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center">
</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center">
</td> <td valign="bottom" width="57" align="center"> OTHER/</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td colspan="2" valign="bottom" width="102" align="center">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175"> DETAILS</td> <td valign="bottom" width="80" align="left"> Survey</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> BUSH</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> KERRY</td> <td valign="bottom" width="56" align="center"> NADER</td> <td valign="bottom" width="57" align="center"> UNSURE</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td colspan="2" valign="bottom" width="102" align="center"> Margin</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">
</td> <td width="80" align="left"> Dates</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="56" align="center"> %</td> <td width="57" align="center"> %</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td width="45" align="center"> Bush</td> <td width="57" align="center"> Kerry</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175">
</td> <td width="80">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="56">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> <td width="19">
</td> <td width="45">
</td> <td width="57">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175"> Marist College</td> <td width="80" align="left"> 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center"> 50</td> <td width="56" align="center"> -</td> <td width="57" align="center"> 1</td> <td width="19" align="center">
</td> <td width="45" align="center">
</td> <td width="57" align="center"> 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> GWU Battleground</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/31 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 50</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 46</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 4</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 4</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/30 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48.6</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45.3</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 0.9</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5.2</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3.3</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> CBS News</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/29 - 11/1</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 47</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 3</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 2</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> FOX News</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/30-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> CNN/USA Today/Gallup</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 47</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> -</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 4</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 2</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Democracy Corps (D)</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> NBC News/Wall St Journal</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 47</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 4</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Zogby ****</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> ABC News</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/28-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 3</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Washington Post</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/28-31</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> American Research Group</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/28-30</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 3</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Pew Research Center</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/27-30</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 6</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="29" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="175" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Newsweek</td> <td width="80" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 10/27-29</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 50</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 44</td> <td width="56" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 1</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 5


</td> <td width="19" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="45" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> 6</td> <td width="57" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[primetime21+]

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="600" border="0" bordercolor="#111111" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="20">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="595"> BUSH vs. KERRY: 2-way trial heats, among likely voters; with leaners, where available.
(See also registered voters.)</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td valign="middle" width="173">
</td> <td valign="bottom" width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Survey</td> <td valign="bottom" width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> BUSH</td> <td valign="bottom" width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> KERRY</td> <td valign="bottom" width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td colspan="2" valign="bottom" width="92" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Margin</td> <td valign="bottom" width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Includes
Running-</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="173">
</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> End Date</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> %</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> %</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Bush</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7"> Kerry</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#f7f7f7">mates?</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> GWU Battleground</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 11/1</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 50</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 11/1</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 44</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> FOX/Opinion Dynamics</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/31</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> CNN/USA Today/Gallup</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/31</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/31</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 44</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> GWU Battleground</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/31</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> FOX/Opinion Dynamics</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/30</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> American Research Group</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/30</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/30</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 42</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> FOX/Opinion Dynamics</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 2</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Newsweek</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 51</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 6</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/29</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 44</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> FOX/Opinion Dynamics</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/28</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 50</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> GWU Battleground</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/28</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 50</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/28</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/27</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 43</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/26</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 43</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/25</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 42</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 5</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> CNN/USA Today/Gallup</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/24</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 52</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 46</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 6</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Los Angeles Times</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/24</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/24</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 41</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 7</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/23</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 43</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Newsweek</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/22</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 48</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 1</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> Y</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> TIPP</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/22</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 47</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 44</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 3</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td colspan="8" width="631" align="left" bgcolor="#cccccc">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="20">
</td> <td width="174" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> GWU Battleground</td> <td width="75" align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 10/21</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 49</td> <td width="61" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 45</td> <td width="27" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> 4</td> <td width="46" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <td width="99" align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> N</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[primetime21+]

As you can see the polling from 2004 showed a tight race with a slight lean towards Bush. And what happened? It was a tight race and Bush won.

Now this is what is happening in 2008:
And for comparison, here is where we are at today:

Polling Data

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>MoE</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/19 - 10/25</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>50.4</td><td>42.7</td><td class="spread">Obama +7.7</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen Reports</td><td>10/23 - 10/25</td><td>3000 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>52</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby</td><td>10/23 - 10/25</td><td>1203 LV</td><td>2.9</td><td>49</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +5</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Gallup (Traditional)*</td><td>10/22 - 10/24</td><td>2413 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>51</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Gallup (Expanded)*</td><td>10/22 - 10/24</td><td>2358 LV</td><td>2.0</td><td>51</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Hotline/FD</td><td>10/22 - 10/24</td><td>869 LV</td><td>3.3</td><td>50</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Newsweek</td><td>10/22 - 10/23</td><td>882 LV</td><td>4.0</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">ABC News/Wash Post</td><td>10/21 - 10/24</td><td>1321 LV</td><td>2.5</td><td>53</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">IBD/TIPP</td><td>10/20 - 10/24</td><td>989 LV</td><td>3.9</td><td>46</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">GWU/Battleground</td><td>10/19 - 10/23</td><td>1000 LV</td><td>3.1</td><td>49</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +3</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CBS News/NY Times</td><td>10/19 - 10/22</td><td>771 LV</td><td>--</td><td>52</td><td>39</td><td class="spread">Obama +13</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">FOX News</td><td>10/20 - 10/21</td><td>936 LV</td><td>3.0</td><td>49</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +9</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[cussin'it]

Yep, Dumbya won by about 2-2.5 %, so the polls were pretty close.

I tend to focus on just 2 polls....Ramussen and Pew.

Give McPalin a bit of a charity bump and the historical narrowing down the final week stretch and BigO still comes out with at least a 3% edge.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

It's already shaping up to be a landslide in the Electoral College.

I think everyone is ignoring Bob Barr and the other 3rd Party candidates who are likely to get 3% between them. I'm thinking Obama beats McCain by 5-6%.

 

[primetime21+]

It's already shaping up to be a landslide in the Electoral College.

I think everyone is ignoring Bob Barr and the other 3rd Party candidates who are likely to get 3% between them. I'm thinking Obama beats McCain by 5-6%.

yup and what alot of people don't realize is that a 5-6 percent win in the national polls would be a landslide in the electoral college. Even a 3 or 4 point win could lead to a landslide.

 

[RobFunk]

As far as 2004 goes, exit polling just isnt as scientific. I might be wrong, but that is something I had been thinking about and wanted to throw it out there. Exit polls they are just asking those who have just left the booth, who knows what you are getting.

We will have roughly 30% of the votes in before Nov. 4th according to Gallup and it's already shaping up to be a Obama landslide. Don't need exit polling for that one.

 

[Sekrah]

IBD/Tipp, October 26th

Obama 44.59%
McCain 43.66%

Zogby closed from 12 to 5 in 3 days (including 3% in yesterdays sample).

:massage:

 

[koidog]

How about 2000 polling? Or how about 2004 exit polling?

Or polling in 2008 Dem primaries?

Some good sized disasters in those cases.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

IBD/Tipp, October 26th

Obama 44.59%
McCain 43.66%

Zogby closed from 12 to 5 in 3 days (including 3% in yesterdays sample).

:massage:

Nice try, liar. That poll is reweighted using 2004 GOP/DEM turnout splits.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 rules=rows width="80%" align=center border=1 frame=hsides><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>October 25</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>41.9%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>45.8%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>12.2%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>+3.9 Obama</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[RobFunk]

Koi, thats the point I am making. Exit polls suck, to be frank. They basically just ask people leaving the booth what they voted without a fair outline / balance of registered Republicans, Democrats and Independants. They are not scientific. Yes, I am making the case for why the exit polls were so skewed to what actually happened in '04.

Bush had national by 3% in 2004
that is pretty much on par +/- 4% with every poll conducted just prior.

 

[Sekrah]

Nice try, liar. That poll is reweighted using 2004 GOP/DEM turnout splits.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 rules=rows width="80%" align=center border=1 frame=hsides><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>October 25</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>41.9%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>45.8%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>12.2%</CENTER></TD><TD vAlign=top><CENTER>+3.9 Obama</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

And?

 

[koidog]

So that answers 2004 exit polling. Doesn't answer 2000 nor does it answer how many states they were well off on in the primary Season.

 

[Sekrah]

So that answers 2004 exit polling. Doesn't answer 2000 nor does it answer how many states they were well off on in the primary Season.

Every other year was horribly off. 2004 was the most accurate polling year going back 30 years. It's far more likely to be off than on.

Dole was trailing Clinton by 20 points in 1996 and got it into single digits.

 

[primetime21+]

IBD/Tipp, October 26th

Obama 44.59%
McCain 43.66%

Zogby closed from 12 to 5 in 3 days (including 3% in yesterdays sample).

:massage:

But Zogby has fluctuated before. You can't seriously take a poll showing Obama up 5 and proclaim it a victory.

And even if you could, you are still cherrypicking the 1 or 2 good results for mccain. That is going to lead to more disappointment for you.

 

[Sekrah]

Cherry picking? So you think I should cite all these polls that have Democrats outvoting Republicans by 8%-12%? :lol:

You're going to be the one disappointed.

 

[cussin'it]

IBD/Tipp, October 26th

Obama 44.59%
McCain 43.66%

Zogby closed from 12 to 5 in 3 days (including 3% in yesterdays sample).

:massage:

Not sure where you are pulling this out of, other than your arse. This was a week ago.....today's polling ON the IBD website itself has:

Your boy is heading the other way.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Editorial.aspx#today


:lol:

 

[D2bets]

My best guess as it stands right now is Obama by 6 to 8. Obama 51-52, McCain 44-45, Other 3-4.

 

[BetIt]

No, it's true Mrs. L posted it at the Hillary Clinton forum..................

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=38484

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Default IBD/TIPP Poll - Posted 26 Oct 08-(Obama 44.59%, McCain 43.66%)
IBD/TIPP Poll 10/25/08 Re-weighted to 2004 Turnout: (Obama 44.59%, McCain 43.66%)
IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll ^ | October 26, 2008 | Avacado

Posted on Sunday, October 26, 2008 3:57:36 AM by avacado

October 25, 2008 IBD/TIPP POLL Re-weighted



http://209.157.64.200/^http://www....09812049219176

 

[cutacrossshorty]

Every other year was horribly off. 2004 was the most accurate polling year going back 30 years. It's far more likely to be off than on.

Dole was trailing Clinton by 20 points in 1996 and got it into single digits.

Are you talking about pre-election polls or exit polls?

The text you quoted that you responded to was about exit polls, which is a completely different animal than pre-election polls.

In 2004, the exit polls were the most "inaccurate" ever compared to the official result. Yet you write that they were the most "accurate" going back 30 years. Nothing could be further from the truth if you are referring to exit polls. I recall one statistician saying something to the effect that the likelikood the exit polls were that far off (in the battleground states) was like 3 billion to 1 and was "virtually irrefutable evidence of vote miscount."