General,
This may be one of the best Travers we have seen in a LONG time. I view this as an unbettable race due to the fact there looks to be about 5 legitimate winners of the race. That being said, I may be putting together a Pick 4 play ending in the Travers (But with my prospective single of Grey Traffic in the 8th already scratched that may not happen after all). If you put a gun to my head and forced me to bet the race itself, I'd probably land on Sir Shackleton. He doesn't necessarily have the best chance of winning, but will probably offer the best value in a race chock full of talented "name" horses. However with a small field such as this, even the prices on the 5th or 6th choice tend to be short. I think The Cliff's Edge has the most likely chance of winning, and will probably be floating in the 3/1, 7/2 range. I'm really curious to hear others thoughts on what could be a historical running of the Travers.
This may be one of the best Travers we have seen in a LONG time. I view this as an unbettable race due to the fact there looks to be about 5 legitimate winners of the race. That being said, I may be putting together a Pick 4 play ending in the Travers (But with my prospective single of Grey Traffic in the 8th already scratched that may not happen after all). If you put a gun to my head and forced me to bet the race itself, I'd probably land on Sir Shackleton. He doesn't necessarily have the best chance of winning, but will probably offer the best value in a race chock full of talented "name" horses. However with a small field such as this, even the prices on the 5th or 6th choice tend to be short. I think The Cliff's Edge has the most likely chance of winning, and will probably be floating in the 3/1, 7/2 range. I'm really curious to hear others thoughts on what could be a historical running of the Travers.
There are two very good speed horses here.Lion Heart and Purge. I see them setting fast enough early fractions so that they will not carry the speed for a mile and a quarter.Then there is a lot of tactical speed with Birdstone,Sir Shackleton,Eddington,and Suave.They should start to push at about the three quarter of a mile marker. I like Cliff's edge to come roaring down the stretch for the win.Second place a toss up between Shackleton and Suave. Good luck guys.
General:
Looking now at the DRF. Competitive race. Lion Heart coming off winning the Grade 1 Haskell looks like the speed, but there is some doubt in my mind whether or not he can get the mile and a quarter distance. The last 1/8 he could be tiring. Purge looked good winning the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and should get a stalking trip, but again not sure he can get the distance. Sir Shackletown comes off winning the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby but not sure he is up to this Grade 1 level of competition. Eddington and The Cliff' Edge are both deep closers coming off being unable to catch Purge in the Jim Dandy. Suave is a mid pack runner who is fresh but hasn't faced this level of competition. Finally, Birdstone appears to have been freshed by Zito for this race following his win in the Grade 1 Belmont. The distance should not be a problem and his workouts look sharp. He is a closer as well, so a fair pace will be needed. I'll lean to Birdstone because he is fresh, workouts look sharp, he can get the distance but will need some pace. Should be a very good race. Best of luck to everyone.
Looking now at the DRF. Competitive race. Lion Heart coming off winning the Grade 1 Haskell looks like the speed, but there is some doubt in my mind whether or not he can get the mile and a quarter distance. The last 1/8 he could be tiring. Purge looked good winning the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and should get a stalking trip, but again not sure he can get the distance. Sir Shackletown comes off winning the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby but not sure he is up to this Grade 1 level of competition. Eddington and The Cliff' Edge are both deep closers coming off being unable to catch Purge in the Jim Dandy. Suave is a mid pack runner who is fresh but hasn't faced this level of competition. Finally, Birdstone appears to have been freshed by Zito for this race following his win in the Grade 1 Belmont. The distance should not be a problem and his workouts look sharp. He is a closer as well, so a fair pace will be needed. I'll lean to Birdstone because he is fresh, workouts look sharp, he can get the distance but will need some pace. Should be a very good race. Best of luck to everyone.
Little colt proves he's all heart
SPRINGS -- Mother Nature brought the thunder, but the horse they call "The Little Man" provided the lightning in the first night game in Travers history.
Rain began to arrive when the horses were being saddled in the paddock, then subsided just before the race began in a segue of almost divine intervention, holding off until moments after Birdstone crossed the finish line in virtual darkness for Saratoga's beloved first lady, Marylou Whitney.
"I think the gods brought all this thunder and lightning to congratulate us," she said.
They also brought it at the right time. Trainer Nick Zito and John Hendrickson, Marylou's husband, both said they would have scratched Birdstone if rain forced track superintendent Jerry Porcelli to seal or squeegee the track before the Travers.
"God did me a favor," said Zito, who now has won all three of the classics and the Travers. Birdstone took care of the last two jewels of what Zito considers four legs of the Triple Crown. "Birdstone proved how great he is."
Birdstone's two worst races this season came on sealed race tracks, conditions created when track maintenance crews drag heavy metal slabs attached to tractors over the race track to remove water and make the surface non-porous.
They sealed the track at Turfway Park for the Lanes End on March 20, and it didn't even have to be. The rain never arrived. Nor did Birdstone, finishing a dismal fifth behind an average field of 3-year-olds.
The next time it happened was a bit more significant -- Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. This time the track was bombarded with rain, but there's no backing out of the Kentucky Derby.
"Little Man" reluctantly ran, then slipped and slid around the track to a merciful conclusion after 1 /4 miles. Birdstone finished eighth on that sloppy surface behind Smarty Jones, trailing the much more comfortable winner by 15 /4 lengths.
If anybody thought that sealed track business was just an excuse, witness the Belmont Stakes five weeks later, when Birdstone came back to shock previously unbeaten Smarty Jones and destroy his Triple Crown dreams.
There was plenty of talk that Birdstone had a perfect trip, that Stewart Elliott made a mistake on Smarty Jones, all of the usual alibis. If anybody still believed the Belmont was a fluke, now Birdstone has defeated the best of the bunch left standing in the wake of Smarty Jones' retirement.
The fans here went wild, seemingly oblivious to the downpour that accompanied Birdstone and jockey Edgar Prado back to the flooded winner's circle. People were reaching over the fence, trying to get a hand on the little colt and his rider. Zito was animated and gesturing to the crowd as rain poured on his gray-white mane, and why not? He not only just won the Travers, he ran 1-2 with The Cliff's Edge second.
Hendrickson ignored the elements as he applauded the fans who were applauding him and the horse. It was a love fest reminiscent of Jimi Hendrix and the horde in the mud at Woodstock, certainly one of the most emotional moments I've witnessed in more than three decades of covering Travers.
Could there be anything more fitting than Marylou Whitney winning the Travers -- one year after she tried to win the filly version (the Alabama) with a sister of Birdstone's named Bird Town?
In the paddock before the race, Hendrickson greeted fellow owner Tracy Farmer, whose colt Sir Shackleton was the third 3-year-old saddled by Zito for this race. "Well, here we are," he said, wishing Farmer good luck. "If we don't win it, I hope one of Nick's other horses wins it."
And so it was on this strange day when nature momentarily took a backseat to history. There was no stopping Birdstone or Zito from their appointed journeys. Marylou and Hendrickson never wavered in their confidence.
"Marylou and I have said before that if we died and went to heaven, we want to come back as a horse in Nick Zito's barn," Hendrickson said.
Even Zito probably couldn't get four horses ready for the Travers.
SPRINGS -- Mother Nature brought the thunder, but the horse they call "The Little Man" provided the lightning in the first night game in Travers history.
Rain began to arrive when the horses were being saddled in the paddock, then subsided just before the race began in a segue of almost divine intervention, holding off until moments after Birdstone crossed the finish line in virtual darkness for Saratoga's beloved first lady, Marylou Whitney.
"I think the gods brought all this thunder and lightning to congratulate us," she said.
They also brought it at the right time. Trainer Nick Zito and John Hendrickson, Marylou's husband, both said they would have scratched Birdstone if rain forced track superintendent Jerry Porcelli to seal or squeegee the track before the Travers.
"God did me a favor," said Zito, who now has won all three of the classics and the Travers. Birdstone took care of the last two jewels of what Zito considers four legs of the Triple Crown. "Birdstone proved how great he is."
Birdstone's two worst races this season came on sealed race tracks, conditions created when track maintenance crews drag heavy metal slabs attached to tractors over the race track to remove water and make the surface non-porous.
They sealed the track at Turfway Park for the Lanes End on March 20, and it didn't even have to be. The rain never arrived. Nor did Birdstone, finishing a dismal fifth behind an average field of 3-year-olds.
The next time it happened was a bit more significant -- Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. This time the track was bombarded with rain, but there's no backing out of the Kentucky Derby.
"Little Man" reluctantly ran, then slipped and slid around the track to a merciful conclusion after 1 /4 miles. Birdstone finished eighth on that sloppy surface behind Smarty Jones, trailing the much more comfortable winner by 15 /4 lengths.
If anybody thought that sealed track business was just an excuse, witness the Belmont Stakes five weeks later, when Birdstone came back to shock previously unbeaten Smarty Jones and destroy his Triple Crown dreams.
There was plenty of talk that Birdstone had a perfect trip, that Stewart Elliott made a mistake on Smarty Jones, all of the usual alibis. If anybody still believed the Belmont was a fluke, now Birdstone has defeated the best of the bunch left standing in the wake of Smarty Jones' retirement.
The fans here went wild, seemingly oblivious to the downpour that accompanied Birdstone and jockey Edgar Prado back to the flooded winner's circle. People were reaching over the fence, trying to get a hand on the little colt and his rider. Zito was animated and gesturing to the crowd as rain poured on his gray-white mane, and why not? He not only just won the Travers, he ran 1-2 with The Cliff's Edge second.
Hendrickson ignored the elements as he applauded the fans who were applauding him and the horse. It was a love fest reminiscent of Jimi Hendrix and the horde in the mud at Woodstock, certainly one of the most emotional moments I've witnessed in more than three decades of covering Travers.
Could there be anything more fitting than Marylou Whitney winning the Travers -- one year after she tried to win the filly version (the Alabama) with a sister of Birdstone's named Bird Town?
In the paddock before the race, Hendrickson greeted fellow owner Tracy Farmer, whose colt Sir Shackleton was the third 3-year-old saddled by Zito for this race. "Well, here we are," he said, wishing Farmer good luck. "If we don't win it, I hope one of Nick's other horses wins it."
And so it was on this strange day when nature momentarily took a backseat to history. There was no stopping Birdstone or Zito from their appointed journeys. Marylou and Hendrickson never wavered in their confidence.
"Marylou and I have said before that if we died and went to heaven, we want to come back as a horse in Nick Zito's barn," Hendrickson said.
Even Zito probably couldn't get four horses ready for the Travers.
I am sure you all watched it, but the way Birdstone and Cliff's Edge blew by those guys was pretty amazing. The fractions were not all that fast, and Lionheart just plain quit, he had absolutley no pressure from the other possible speed in Purge, who sat behind him.
The way that race developed it was supposed to be a 2-3 exacta for your life. But the finish actually would make you think those two went out in 22.4 and 45.2 , the third panel was pretty fast, but still, with no pressure would expect those two to last longer than that, the distance no withstanding.
The real dissapointment was Sir Shackelton, definately has some problems, at one time he was probably the best of this bunch, now he can't even get a check. (I obviously had a Zito tri box) but the exacta was OK too.
But Birdstone off that lay off and digging in the way he did proved the Belmont was not a flukey as people thought.
The highlight was watching it get pitch black, even though it is common in Syracuse it was still pretty cool to see them finish under the lights (at 6:30 in the afternoon).
The way that race developed it was supposed to be a 2-3 exacta for your life. But the finish actually would make you think those two went out in 22.4 and 45.2 , the third panel was pretty fast, but still, with no pressure would expect those two to last longer than that, the distance no withstanding.
The real dissapointment was Sir Shackelton, definately has some problems, at one time he was probably the best of this bunch, now he can't even get a check. (I obviously had a Zito tri box) but the exacta was OK too.
But Birdstone off that lay off and digging in the way he did proved the Belmont was not a flukey as people thought.
The highlight was watching it get pitch black, even though it is common in Syracuse it was still pretty cool to see them finish under the lights (at 6:30 in the afternoon).
wantitall4moi:
An interesting development occured by virtue of the race being off 5 minutes ahead of schedule due to the fast approaching thunderstorm. Many books were timed to close betting at 6:25 p.m. EST, but the race ended right around 6:24 p.m. and books were still accepting wagers after Birdstone had already won. Wonder how many got hurt on the past posting?
As for the development of the race, check out my pre-race analysis above. Sometimes things just seem clear. Wish that happened more often.
An interesting development occured by virtue of the race being off 5 minutes ahead of schedule due to the fast approaching thunderstorm. Many books were timed to close betting at 6:25 p.m. EST, but the race ended right around 6:24 p.m. and books were still accepting wagers after Birdstone had already won. Wonder how many got hurt on the past posting?
As for the development of the race, check out my pre-race analysis above. Sometimes things just seem clear. Wish that happened more often.
I was at Del Mar yesterday and I know they closed the windows right there. Haven't read anything today, but haven't picked up The Form yet either. So not sure, I am probably sure that some of the foriegn books got hit, and wil have to sift through time stamps to rectify it if they got buried too bad I suppose.
As for the capping of the race, I read what you wrote this morning, and you were balls on. I looked at it two ways. I figured without a speed duel between the 2 and 3 they probably could go the distance. Especially the 2, he ran well in the Derby and that was from off the pace, so figuring him on the front in his favored sot with no pressure figured he might hang on. But I knew Purge couldn't win sitting second, so I thought he WOULD pressure the 2. So that is why I made the plays I made.
I hated seeing them go out in a file and running the moderate fractions, and tought at the 3/4 pole I was not looking good. But thinggs really did fall apart on that final turn, unfortunately it was ahrd to tell what was gong on in the dark, and with no lighting. I am not sure if ESPN had a better view or not, but I know the monitor view sucked.
So even though I capped it totally wrong, I still got the winning results. Which I guess is all thatmatters. It surely makes up for a few thatyou cap right, and get shut off in the lane.
But personally I never would have bet Birdstone to win, even with the works. Without a perp and facing the quality of that field second was more realistic. That is why his win was so impressive.
As for the capping of the race, I read what you wrote this morning, and you were balls on. I looked at it two ways. I figured without a speed duel between the 2 and 3 they probably could go the distance. Especially the 2, he ran well in the Derby and that was from off the pace, so figuring him on the front in his favored sot with no pressure figured he might hang on. But I knew Purge couldn't win sitting second, so I thought he WOULD pressure the 2. So that is why I made the plays I made.
I hated seeing them go out in a file and running the moderate fractions, and tought at the 3/4 pole I was not looking good. But thinggs really did fall apart on that final turn, unfortunately it was ahrd to tell what was gong on in the dark, and with no lighting. I am not sure if ESPN had a better view or not, but I know the monitor view sucked.
So even though I capped it totally wrong, I still got the winning results. Which I guess is all thatmatters. It surely makes up for a few thatyou cap right, and get shut off in the lane.
But personally I never would have bet Birdstone to win, even with the works. Without a perp and facing the quality of that field second was more realistic. That is why his win was so impressive.
Saratoga
Lion Heart injured, retired
By DAVID GRENING
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - Lion Heart suffered a broken bone in his right front foot while running last in Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes and will be retired, trainer Patrick Biancone said.
Biancone said the injury would take four to six months to heal, thus forcing Lion Heart to miss the Breeders' Cup Classic. Owners Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, who purchased Lion Heart for $1.4 million, felt it best to retire the horse while still relatively healthy.
"Our plan was the Travers and Breeders' Cup and after that we'd see," Biancone said. "Injuries were not in our plan. We had a lovely road with him, but it's the end of the field. We are going to miss him because he was very important to my and my staff. He changed our lives this year.
"This horse has been extremely generous, he give his heart every time he runs," Biancone added. "We'll have to find another one."
Lion Heart, a son Tale of the Cat, won 5 of 10 starts including the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at 2, and the Grade 1 Haskell at 3. His other stakes wins included the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue, and the Grade 3 Long Branch. He also finished second to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby.
Lion Heart was sent off the 5-2 favorite in the Travers based on his Haskell win. He set a moderate pace through six furlongs, but gave way nearing the top of the stretch.
"We had a lovely road with him but it's the end of the road," Biancone said.
Lion Heart retires with $1,390,800 in earnings.
Lion Heart injured, retired
By DAVID GRENING
SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - Lion Heart suffered a broken bone in his right front foot while running last in Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes and will be retired, trainer Patrick Biancone said.
Biancone said the injury would take four to six months to heal, thus forcing Lion Heart to miss the Breeders' Cup Classic. Owners Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, who purchased Lion Heart for $1.4 million, felt it best to retire the horse while still relatively healthy.
"Our plan was the Travers and Breeders' Cup and after that we'd see," Biancone said. "Injuries were not in our plan. We had a lovely road with him, but it's the end of the field. We are going to miss him because he was very important to my and my staff. He changed our lives this year.
"This horse has been extremely generous, he give his heart every time he runs," Biancone added. "We'll have to find another one."
Lion Heart, a son Tale of the Cat, won 5 of 10 starts including the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity at 2, and the Grade 1 Haskell at 3. His other stakes wins included the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue, and the Grade 3 Long Branch. He also finished second to Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby.
Lion Heart was sent off the 5-2 favorite in the Travers based on his Haskell win. He set a moderate pace through six furlongs, but gave way nearing the top of the stretch.
"We had a lovely road with him but it's the end of the road," Biancone said.
Lion Heart retires with $1,390,800 in earnings.
