The Square Play of the Day!

[ck013]

I will be using this thread to post 1 pick per day (time permitting), calling it the Square Play of the Day.



Sunday 05/11/2014

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnatti Reds
Nicascio (R) (4-1) 3.89 ERA @ Bailey (R) (2-2) 5.36 ERA

In the Sunday edition of the Square Play of the Day, Nicascio takes on Bailey in game three of a three game series. The Rockies are coming into game three having just beat the Reds 11-2 in a laugher. Nicascio comes into this matchup with a better record, ERA and WHIP. His FIP however, is 4.76, a -0.87 differential. Bailey, although putting up horrendous numbers thus far this season, has an FIP of 4.57 which equals a +0.79 differential.

When we look at BaBIP, we see Nicascio has a .274 average to go along with that -0.87 differential in his FIP. Point being, Nicascio has been very fortunate this far in the season as his career average is .316. Homer Bailey has been on the complete opposite end of the spectrum accumulating an average of .375 this season, way over his .305 average.

Although the Rockies have been hitting the ball much better than the Reds, balls in play versus strikeouts can play a factor. According to ESPN.com, Great American Ball Park has a park factor of 1.071, making it a hitter’s ball park. Going back to the strikeouts, 145 strikeouts out the Rockies 254, were on the road. For the Reds, only 107 of their strikeouts were at home out of the 248.

The Rockies in game three of a series are 5-6, but 2-6 in game threes after a loss. The Reds are 7-2 in game threes, and 5-1 in game threes after a loss. On Sundays the Rockies are 1-4 while the Reds are 4-1. I expect to see the Reds putting more balls in play and challenging that .274 BaBIP average. I expect the Reds to be ready to play on Sunday to win this series and because of that I believe they will try to chip away at .375 BaBIP average for Bailey and play some defense for him. Due to the situation of the game and how it matches up with the stats, I see the most value with the Reds.

The Square Play of the Day: The Reds -125

 

[ck013]

Correction: the Rockies are 2-6 after a win in game three of a series, sorry about the typo

 

[DChosta]

Nice call on the game today, hope to see your analysis on more future games!

 

[RussellPeters]

Nice job!

 

[ck013]

Thanks guys, I'll have another one on this thread for tomorrow, best of luck.

 

[ck013]

Monday 05/12/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Floyd (R) (0-0) 1.29 ERA @ Lincecum (R) (2-2) 5.55 ERA




Gavin Floyd, makes only his second start of the season after an outstanding pitching performance against the St. Louis Cardinals. Floyd went 7 innings gave up 6 hits, and one earned run, throwing 104 pitches. Floyd's late start this year is due to Tommy John surgery he endured last season, and his first performance of 2014 impressed many.


Tim Lincecum, has been having a rough go of it this season posting up an ugly 5.55 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. Despite his dreadful pitching his team is 5-2 when he starts while his own record is 2-2. Lincecum has an FIP 4.24 making a differential of +1.31 compared to his ERA, meaning he is 1.31 runs per game better than his ERA shows. This is in big part due to his BaBIP (Batting Average Balls in Play), which is a whopping .393 thus far in 2014.


Something I do believe boas well for Lincecum in this contest is the fact that AT&T Park this season has been favorable for pitchers with an ESPN park factor of 0.836. AT&T Park also is rated 29/30 in HRs allowed, when a ballpark is this anemic with Home Runs, fly balls become that much safer. What pitchers need to worry about in this case is ground balls, as ground balls already have a higher likelihood of leading to a hitter getting on base due to the extra variables and steps (fielder must field and then throw to base rather than just catching the ball, plus bad hops ect.).


Lincecum has a .65 groundball to flyball ratio, with 47 ground balls and 71 flyballs this season. Atlanta is last in the league in runs with 115, and 28/30 in total hits with 283. The Giants, although they aren't knocking the cover off the ball this season, do have more hits with 307, and 12/30 in runs with 159. Not to mentioned Linecum has a very good history of performing well against the Braves, out of 156 at-bats, the Braves are hitting .231 against him.


Seeing as how Floyd is only making his second start this year coming back from his surgery, and the fact that he did throw 104 pitches, you may see Floyd on a limited pitch count especially if he gives up two runs or more. When we look at the Braves' bullpen, we see a 2.87 ERA, 94 total innings pitched, and 30 earned runs. On the road however, 3.47 ERA, only 36.31 total innings pitched and yet 14/30 earned runs. Meaning the Braves bullpen gave up nearly 50% of their total runs given up, on the road. They had 57.69 innings pitched at home and only 36.31 on the road, so they've pitched 21.38 innings less on the road, and gave up just one earned run under half of their total earned runs this season.


The Giants bullpen, should they need it with Lincecum's recent struggles, have a 2.10 season ERA, an outstanding .998 WHIP out of 120 innings pitched. Out of 120 innings only 49 innings were actually at home, and the numbers are strong with a home ERA of .73, a whip of .837, only 6/30 earned runs were at home, and only 1/9 of their home runs, were given up at home.


I don't expect this game to be a runaway for either team, the Braves did just sweep the Cubs but they are 2-7 in their last meetings with the Giants. The Giants took 3/4 from the Dodgers in LA, but this is their first day home which for a lot of teams with road trips can be stressful depending of their personal life situations. Floyds career GSc average is 51 since 2004, Lincecums is 57 not to mentioned the Giants at 10-5 at home. I see the most value with the Giants at home.


The Square Play of the Day: Giants - 115

 

[ck013]

Another game will be released tonight, check back soon.

 

[ck013]

Tuesday 05/13/2014 – Square Play of the Day!

San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Cashner (R) (2-5) 2.86 ERA @ Leake (R) (2-3) 3.40 ERA

In today’s Square Play of the Day, Cashner and the Padres hit the road and head east to face Leake and the Reds. The Padres and Reds come into today’s game-one well rested, both having the day off yesterday. The Padres come in having just taken two out of three at home from the Marlins, and the Reds taking two out of three at home from the Rockies.

Cashner comes into today’s contest with a 2.86 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, leaving a differential of only -0.07 and his BaBIP (Batting Average Balls in Play) is at .288, which means what you’ve seen is what you have gotten. Leake, has an ERA of 3.40 but an FIP of 4.20 equaling to a -0.80 differential, almost a full run more than his ERA shows. The deception is also assisted by the fact that Leake has a BaBIP of .258 which means he has been very fortunate (lucky) in the field (expect this number to rise closer to the league average of .300).

Today’s contest is being played at the Great American Ball Park in Ohio. According to ESPN’s Parks Factor, this particular field has a park factor of 1.096, a hitter’s ballpark. In these types of stadiums, fly-balls can be dangerous. Cashner has a homerun percentage (percentage of all plate appearances a homerun was hit) of 0.9%, while Leake has a homerun percentage of 3%. Digging deeper we also see that Cashner has a homerun/fly-ball ratio of 3.2%, while Leake is currently at a ratio of 9.7%. Another notable stat is that Cashner has 41 strikeouts to Leake’s 29.

Over the last five games the Padres starting pitchers have posted a 1.78 ERA while the bullpen put up a 3.78. The Reds starters over their last five posted a 3.73 ERA and their bullpen an ugly 6.14. The Padres hitters over the last five have put up a .279 batting average, and a 4.61 runs per nine inning average both against righties. The Reds have a .180 average with a 3.41 run per nine inning average over their last five against righties.

To top everything off, the Padres in game one after a win are 5-1. The Reds in game one after win are 1-7. Cashner has clearly been the better pitcher thus far this season and to get him as a dog against a struggling pitcher, and a struggling team can’t be passed up. I see the most value with the Padres.

Tuesday’s Square Play of the Day: Padres +110

 

[BAMARED]

Very nice thanks

 

[ck013]

Quick three game recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/11/2014 - Reds - 1.25 to win 1
2nd Game, 5/12/2014 - Giants - 1.15 to win 1
3rd Game, 5/13/2014 - Padres - 1 to win 1.1

Record 3-0, Units +3.1 (all games are for one unit).

 

[Grindstone30]

Quick three game recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.

1st Game, 5/11/2014 - Reds - 1.25 to win 1
2nd Game, 5/12/2014 - Giants - 1.15 to win 1
3rd Game, 5/13/2014 - Padres - 1 to win 1.1

Record 3-0, Units +3.1 (all games are for one unit).

Keep up the great work congrats

 

[Biz]

What ^ said.

Continued success.

 

[ck013]

Wednesday 05/14/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Teheran (R) (2-2) 1.71 ERA @ Bumgarner (L) (4-3) 2.83 ERA


In today's edition of the Square Play of the Day, we go back to the Atlanta Braves visiting the San Francisco Giants for the rubber game of their three game series. The young lefty Julio Teheran takes the mound against the right handed Madison Bumgarner. Teheran has an impressive 1.71 ERA with a humble 2-2 record and an outstanding 0.81 WHIP over eight starts in 2014. Bumgarner has an ERA of 2.83, a 4-3 record and relatively high WHIP of 1.41.


Looking at the numbers on paper with the Braves recent struggles, the public seems to be siding with the Giants. When we break down Teheran we see that ultimately he has had a lot of support in the field, and his impressive numbers can be quite deceitful. First we start with his FIP which measures his true ERA in comparison to his actual ERA. Teheran has an FIP of 3.84 that's a -2.13 run differential, which over eight games is a pretty substantial difference. Next we look at his BaBIP and we see why, his BaBIP is an astounding .193 making him on of the luckiest pitchers in baseball so far this season.


When we look at the opposition Bumgarner, we see an FIP of 3.14 with a differential of -0.31 showing that he his ERA and FIP are pretty similar with less than half a run difference. It gets a lot more interesting however looking at his BaBIP, which is an extremely high .353. This means Bumgarner has actually been fairly unlucky with balls put in to play, yet his ERA and FIP are still almost in sync.


Next comparing these two young pitchers we look at strikeouts to get an idea of who should be putting more balls in play and see where those BaBIP numbers should start trending. Teheran has 42 strikeouts this season, with an average of 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Bumgarner has 54 strikeouts with a 10.2 strikeout per nine innings average, almost double that of Teheran's nine inning average. This shows me that the Giants should be able to put more balls in play especially considering that the Braves have struck out fifth most in the league with 341 strikeouts while the Giants although not far behind, have the ninth most with 329.


Looking at how the pitchers are fairing against each team we start with Teheran who has had a relatively small sample size of only 70 total at-bats against the Giant players. The Giants are hitting an average of .271 against him, Buster Posey is 6-for-9. Bumgarner is a little more familiar with Braves, having had 123 at-bats, and he has been quite impressive, the Braves are only hitting .228 against him with Freddy Freeman only hitting 4-for-19.


This should be a tough match-up from start to finish, but I expect those ERA's to get closer to the FIPs, and I expect both BaBIP averages to both trend toward the .300 mark. The Giants were shut-out yesterday, but are 11-6 at home. The Braves are 6-5 in day games while the Giants are 10-4. Although this truly seems like a square play, I see value in Bumgarner today.

Today's Square Play of the Day: Giants -115

 

[ck013]

Sorry made a typo, should have said right for Teheran and left for Bumgarner, simple typo sorry guys

 

[BAMARED]

Thanks for the play.

 

[Cobra07751]

Sharp Son. No worries about the typos, just keep winning! Great analysis and more importantly is being on the right side

 

[ck013]

Thursday 05/15/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
Wei-Yin Chen (L) (4-2) 3.95 ERA @ Yordano Ventura (R) (2-2) 2.34 ERA

In this Thursday night match-up the Baltimore Orioles visit the Kansas City Royals. Wei-Yin Chen takes the mound for Baltimore, with a 4-2 record, and a 3.95 ERA. His opponent, Yordano Ventura, a 2-2 record, and a 2.34 ERA. Baltimore comes in having just lost to the Detroit Tigers and the Royals come in having swept a two game series against the Rockies.

We will start things today with Yordana, a promising young righty who has been seemingly rolling so far this season. Although his outer numbers are impressive, what concerns me is his FIP has a -1.04 differential from his ERA. He has also had a lot of help in the field as balls in play are hits only 25% of the time over the seven games he has started this year.

The lefty Wei-Yin Chen takes the mound for the Orioles. Chen’s outer numbers this year are mediocre at best and may appear to be inferior to Yordano’s performances. When we dig in we see a positive FIP differential, almost a full run better than his ERA. That could potentially be explained by his lack of field support, as balls in play are hits a 35.3% of the time.

Although ESPN’s Park Factors have Kauffman Stadium in Missouri at a 1.88 rating (hitters ballpark), the field is deceitfully 21st/30 in home runs. Typically this would bode well for small ball and ground-ball hitting teams, with fly-ball pitchers. Yordano has a ground-ball to fly-ball ratio of 1.04 meaning he is a ground-ball pitcher. Chen has a ground-ball fly-ball ratio of 0.72 and that actually high for him; his career average of three years is actually 0.59.

Although the Royals are home, Baltimore comes from a pitcher’s ballpark that is 27th/30 in homeruns. The Orioles know small ball, when we combine that with Yordano’s hidden flaws as well as his tendency to induce ground balls, it shows me value in the Orioles, especially as a dog.

Today’s Square Play of the Day: Orioles +110

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck ck! Question...in your last paragraph you mention "...Yordana's hidden flaws as well as his tendency to induce ground balls..." isn't inducing ground balls a postivie thing for a pitcher? Dont' you want to look for a pitcher who can keep the ball on the ground rather than in the air?

 

[ck013]

In a home run park yes, this park produces runs but not a lot home runs, because of that I would rather have a fly ball pitcher against a team that doesn't produce a lot of home runs; Kansas City is last in entire league in home runs (only 18). Just my personal opinion.

 

[Steiner69eR]

I like it...let's get 'em...stay hot