The Sports Crunchers' Week #15 Write Ups

thecruncher · Dec 10, 2008

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ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> [FONT=&quot]SAINTS @ BEARS<o

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If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to <st1

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lace> and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense. <o

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One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23<sup>rd</sup> ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31<sup>st</sup>, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3<sup>rd</sup> and inches play, lol. <o

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The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.<o

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The Bears have a below average 25<sup>th</sup> ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26<sup>th</sup>. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15<sup>th</sup>) and Raiders (17<sup>th</sup>). The Bears are far below these teams.<o

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Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5<sup>th</sup>), once by the Chargers (ranked 2<sup>nd</sup>), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8<sup>th</sup>), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success. <o

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While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.<o

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In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.<o

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Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.<o

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Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20<o

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sportsjedi · Dec 10, 2008

Great write-ups!

boyzfan · Dec 10, 2008

i took over 44 looks like a push for me lol

ESQAJM · Dec 11, 2008

Nice writeup crunch. You convinced me to go with NO.

WormyPix · Dec 11, 2008

Hmm, I think you underestimate the effect 16 degree, 13 mph wind weather will have on a dome QB. Even a cold weather QB like Favre has trouble gripping the ball with numb hands, and it only gets worse as the gm goes on. Not to mention on WR's & RB's holding on to the ball, and Bush already has fumbleitis in key situations. Plus, CHI did beat NO @ Soldier in NFC championship 2 yrs ago, and last gm of last yr (39-14 & 33-25 respectively).

To say the least I'm wit da Bears on this one. The saving grace is at least one of us will win! I still wish you luck, Cruncher, and good to see you on here when you can!

:toast:

thecruncher · Dec 11, 2008

Wormy -- Schaub threw for Over 400 yards versus a much better pass defense in 3 degree weather last week after not playing for over a month. I trust that they keep the balls and their hands fairly warm during these games, lol.

sumday · Dec 11, 2008

I don't think the weather will have that much of an impact either. I like the over in this game.

Smacksmiter · Dec 11, 2008

Nice writeup as usual, however, I think the intangibles decide this game between 2 teams that the bookmaker thinks are equals. He could have made a mistake here in this line, but I don't think he did. Some home fields have more advantage than others and I do think the Bears have one this weekend against the 'Aints...and the inconsistency of the 'Aints has driven me crazy all year...

Its da Bears or no play for me...leaning toward no play...

Good luck to you !:toast:

WormyPix · Dec 11, 2008

thecruncher said:
Wormy -- Schaub threw for Over 400 yards versus a much better pass defense in 3 degree weather last week after not playing for over a month. I trust that they keep the balls and their hands fairly warm during these games, lol.

Touche Crunch! How the hell did he do that?! Kevin Walter did have to go get some balls, along with Andre too in that aerial shootout. And actually Brees threw for a lot of yds the last 2 @ CHI, but he also threw 5 INT's. Sigh, I hope you're wrong here crunch. What do you think of BAL this sunday? I'm looking to make them my POW.

coitus_maximus · Dec 11, 2008

Kudos to crunch. Great Analysis here. This is what we really
need on this forum. There are several that provide this, but
we need to rid ourselves of the proverbial "lock" ness monsters
roaming around

CHITOWNODAWG · Dec 11, 2008

Crunch whats your take on the total, is it me or is it a tad bit low knowing the history of these teams and bears shitty pass d?

thecruncher · Dec 11, 2008

I don't like the Over because I don't trust the Bears to get their share of the points!

VoiceofReason101 · Dec 11, 2008

Nice looking write up my friend. Hope all is well with you

CHITOWNODAWG · Dec 11, 2008

Makes alot of sense, people arent realizing how bad the bears offense is, without that freebie by garrard to thier 2, the bears would have only got 16 and that was against a crap jax d. Also im going to check line movement as well b4 kick off as i have a feeling it might hit 47 then drop.

CHITOWNODAWG · Dec 11, 2008

:nohead:Line moved from 47 to 45.5

thecruncher · Dec 11, 2008

If they keep Orton upright for two more seconds at the end of the game it's a 7 unit swing for me hitting 2 units on the Saints +3, middling 2 Units each on the Under 46 and Over 44, and pushing the Chicago team total Under 24. Saints outgain the opponent by 100 yards and lose -- I've lost track of how many dogs I've bet this year that have outgained the opponent and yet failed to even cover the spread, lol.

Gaz · Dec 12, 2008

thecruncher said:
If they keep Orton upright for two more seconds at the end of the game it's a 7 unit swing for me hitting 2 units on the Saints +3, middling 2 Units each on the Under 46 and Over 44, and pushing the Chicago team total Under 24. Saints outgain the opponent by 100 yards and lose -- I've lost track of how many dogs I've bet this year that have outgained the opponent and yet failed to even cover the spread, lol.

Yes, Saints should have won that game. Another, 'I capped it right but lost' game.

aiverson · Dec 12, 2008

Gaz said:
Yes, Saints should have won that game. Another, 'I capped it right but lost' game.

Really?

Having no play last night but watching the game, I clearly thought NO was lucky to walk away w/ a push.

Their only TDs were scored from Chi turnovers on Chi's 1, 31 and 45 yard lines. NO averages less than 1 takeaway per game on the road, Chi averages fewer than 2 per game at home. For NO to wind up w/ 3, all of which were in Chi territory, and 1 of which was on the Chi 1, was certainly fortuitous for them. Chi was covering from opening kickoff to 3 mins left in the game.

But for the questionable playcalling w/ 5:30 mins left in the 4th, Chi even then could have earned a cover: Chi ball, 1st and 10 on their own 43 yardline, up by 4, NO has only 1 Timeout. Chi throws 1 incomplete pass to stop the clock, and then throws an interception.

Even if you run 3 times and go 3 and out and punt NO inside their 20, you force NO to drive 80+ yards w/ about 2:30 left and only 1 timeout, needing to score a TD, not just a FG. NO didn't drive 80 yards all game, let alone score a TD off a drive started in NO territory. The 3 drives all game that NO started at or inside their 20 averaged 5 total plays and 14 total yards each drive. Not sure what Chicago was thinking offensively there.

CHITOWNODAWG · Dec 12, 2008

Ai exactley my sentiments, i had under 46 and feel very screwed knowning damn well i made the right play but the dumb ass coach cost me the money.

midman2161 · Dec 12, 2008

CHITOWNODAWG said:
Ai exactley my sentiments, i had under 46 and feel very screwed knowning damn well i made the right play but the dumb ass coach cost me the money.

Yeah.. I had the over and was just thinkin about how lucky I was to hit that (especially since I had over 46 so needed the additional score over others who got it at 45, 44.5 etc). The real lucky thing was after the Saints seemingly blew the game and turned it back over to the Bears with a little over 3 minutes left. Why in the world wouldnt a running football team run the ball in that situation? Not only did they come out in playaction on first down, but then they threw it on SECOND down, which is when the Saints picked off Orton and returned it back to the Bears 25 or so. If the Bears had just ran it out the Saints would have gotten the ball back under two minutes and deep in their own territory. Instead the Bears just handed them a TD, and even then I felt lucky that they let Orton drive down the field for a FG after really not letting them move the ball the entire game. Had the Saints gotten the ball back, there would have only been time for them at the very most to get a TD and the win, but the under still would have cashed.