The Sports Cruncher's Week #12 Write Ups

thecruncher · Nov 19, 2008

ffice:smarttags" name="City"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> Bengals @ Steelers
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Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1

lace></st1:city> with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1

lace></st1:city> again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1

lace></st1:city> dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1

lace></st1:city> disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.
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I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.
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So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.
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The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4<sup>th</sup> quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.
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In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1

lace></st1:city>. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.
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Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24
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HighFlyinKilla · Nov 19, 2008

Are you suggesting a teaser? The line is 11 total 34.5.

thecruncher · Nov 19, 2008

Very low totals are not a bad spot to tease the Over when you like the Over. A 7 point tease of PIT -4 or -3.5 with the Over 27.5 is not a bad play if you can find a book with those lines at decent juice.

A2Gator · Nov 19, 2008

Like your pick, just hesitant to pull the trigger on double-digit dogs. I realize the trend won't last forever at the current rate, but still.

Thanks for the detailed write-up Cruncher. GL this week.

merci4one · Nov 19, 2008

thanks for the write-up Crunch...

thecruncher · Nov 19, 2008

Thanks guys. Gator, I'm not recommending a play on the dog here. Personally I bought the Steelers down to -9.5 when the line was -10. The Over is the only play with value in this game.

WormyPix · Nov 20, 2008

Praise Cruncher and his visions of a referee-free future! However, you do realize Vegas will still have a way around that too.

Your biggest observation is Levi & their LG being out. CIN actually played PIT tough the first time around, but that was with those 2 olinemen in, and it was at home. And they still beat them by 28! I think it'll be one of those sit back and enjoy your winnings by the 3rd Q type gms, with PIT fuming after that joke of a gm this past sunday. Fitzy will have no time to pass, and CIN's actually decent "D" will be worn out by the half.

GREAT write up Crunch, and we'll most definitely be on the same side!

:toast:

thecruncher · Nov 20, 2008

Thx, Wormy. Yeah, Diebold will control all the referee bots in the future and then there will be shady/hacked calls like some of the elections we've had in the past, lol.

xlarge · Nov 20, 2008

Pitt is the :money8:

facenace · Nov 20, 2008

great write up. my concern with the over is only the actual field condition. i keep having bad memories of that monday night game last year when they played in mudd. i have been watching the weather and it looks like it will be cold enough not to be muddy. do you have any further info on the grass condition? again very nice logical breakdown of tonights matchup.

thecruncher · Nov 20, 2008

Yeah, you don't want Heinz Field to be very wet as it turns into a mud bowl. It should be just below freezing so any precip will be snow. You're right to worry about the grass, though, as it can turn into the worst field in the league. The precipitation and wind amounts have increased a little bit since yesterday, but they're still not in horrible range. Chad Johnson will be out for Cincy it looks like -- though their passing game has pretty much been Housh and whoever. Banking on PIT getting a couple of really short fields and Big Ben throwing some TD passes versus Cincy's very weak pass rush.

WormyPix · Nov 21, 2008

Huu, what an ugly win for PIT. Damn, their punter almost blew the gm for us. Man, and how could PIT only come away with 1 sack vs that makeshift oline? Sheesh, this was a bigger squeeze than it should've been. A win's a win, and onto sunday!!!

thecruncher · Nov 21, 2008

Wormy Pix said:
Huu, what an ugly win for PIT. Damn, their punter almost blew the gm for us. Man, and how could PIT only come away with 1 sack vs that makeshift oline? Sheesh, this was a bigger squeeze than it should've been. A win's a win, and onto sunday!!!

It looked like the Bengals made a conscientious decision to throw the ball away instead of taking sacks last night. It really didn't help their passing game, though, as Fitzpatrick only looked good on a few passes, a couple of which were dropped, lol. Got extremely fortunate that Cincy kicked the 4th Q. field goal and that PIT got the subsequent touchdown. The only thing that would've been better is if PIT had missed the extra point (and the snap/hold exchance was dicey, if I'm not mistaken) as that would've given me 2 winners middling the total, instead of the larger winner/smaller push I still gratefully ended up with, lol. Polamalu getting the pick late preserved a couple of plays as well.

billbeater · Nov 21, 2008

good writeup crunch! most people cashed i would say :toast:

thecruncher · Nov 21, 2008

Thx, bb. We didn't get the one big play that made the Over an easy winner -- we had to get it the old fashioned way, earning every single point. Most cashed on the Steelers, yup. Not many backed arguably the worst offense in the league on the road versus the #1 defense, I reckon.

thecruncher · Nov 22, 2008

“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns

When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.

Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.

Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.

With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.

In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23

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I'll dole out another write up tomorrow, and one Sunday morning, just so no one feels pressured to cram so much reading into a busy Sunday morning.

WormyPix · Nov 22, 2008

Tuff gm to play Crunch, as HOU is a bad road team. However, CLE's "D" will make HOU's "O" look great. How's the weather looking?

Look forward to the rest! Should have my crap up sometime late tonight.

:toast:

KidKash · Nov 22, 2008

glad to see that houston play, i looked at it when the lines came out and grabbed +3.5, really think they could win it outright. good luck this week

sds23 · Nov 22, 2008

BOL this week Crunch. I saw your comments over in my weekly thread and I hope we don't cancel each other out again this week. BOL my friend!

thecruncher · Nov 22, 2008

sds23 said:
BOL this week Crunch. I saw your comments over in my weekly thread and I hope we don't cancel each other out again this week. BOL my friend!

I hope you were even at worst then last week, as my week was fantastic! Thanks and BOL.