Hi all, will try to post my matchup grids and write ups for many of the games on game days. The write up for this first game also works as a tutorial on how to use the match up grids in the pictures. Happy Bowling!
Saturday 12/17/16 Bowl Games
UT-San Antonio @ New Mexico (***Includes tips on using the Matchup Grids***)
It's a home game for New Mexico, though the 11 hour drive could entice San Antonio fans to make a weekend trip for this Bowl game. I don't know what the ticket allotment was for UTSA, so I'm still applying the home field advantage here just to be on the safe side. It is UTSA's first Bowl game, so I'd expect a pretty solid fan turnout. Even with HFA applied I'm showing a little bit of value on the Roadrunners.
It's the Homerunners (jokes!) you have to keep an eye on here offensively, though, as UNM has one of the strongest Group of 5 running games this year (3rd strongest G5 running team behind USF and Navy). The Lobos have achieved this great ground success in some part because of a really weak schedule of run defenses faced. UTSA has an above average run defense at 55th. Before you think that UTSA will do a better than average job at slowing down UNM's running game, though, consider this: UNM has a pretty strong negative correlation between the run offense scores for each of their games and the opponent's run defense rank. (***These game tracking grids on the right side of each Bowl matchup page are new this year. The correlation scores are found on the bottom of each of the 4 season game grids***) This means that UNM has actually had their best games of run offense versus the better run defenses they've faced this year, as you can see in the upper right grid. It should be noted that their best run offense score which came in the final week was against a Wyoming team who'd already locked up their side of the conference and had nothing really to play for in that game.
***If you look at the consistency scores for each team on the edges of the big grid on the left, you'll see that UTSA has been pretty inconsistent on offense, but consistent on defense. This makes sense when you look at their "Best and Worst" games in the middle columns. Their best games offensively came against not very good defenses, while their worst games offensively came against some pretty bad defenses.***
New Mexico hasn't had a single "worst" game of rush offense, while not having had a single "Best" game of pass defense. UTSA's worst game of run defense came early in the season against ASU, who suffered a plethora of offensive injuries as the season went along and at full health probably wouldn't be anywhere close to the low 124th rank of run offense they currently have. Even then it barely qualified as a "worst" game and was only a run defense score of -33. ***Most of the run/pass offense/defense scores found in the middle of the grids on the right range at around 75 points +/- or less (with a standard deviation of 74 for run off./def. scores and just over 80 for pass off./def. scores). You can see that UTSA's run defense really was very consistent in the sense that all but one of their run defense scores feel between +49 and -33. They're not shutting any one down on the ground, but they're not letting anyone run wild either.
Ultimately, UTSA's offense, weak as it may be, may do enough versus a poor Lobo defense to keep this game within a score. You can see in UTSA's run offense scores that they were really pretty poor running the ball in the 2nd half of the season, though their final 3 opponents all had higher ranked run defenses than UNM. UTSA's pass offense did show some life in the final two games though. The wind forecast will not be in the Roadrunners favor, with winds at 20+ mph forecast for the entire game. This hurts the Roadrunners more than UNM as they pass on 42% of their plays versus just 21% for the Lobos. The Lobos, it should be noted, had two of their best three games of pass offense in their final 3 games, meaning they are more likely to punish you for cheating against the run than they were formerly capable of.
With the wind forecast I recommended a small play on the Under earlier in the week, but with the number below 60 now I'd pass, as I'm also doing on any side plays. Maybe for action I'll throw the Lobos into a very small teaser play with something else.
http://imgur.com/a/WJSYx
http://imgur.com/a/EZzjJ
Saturday 12/17/16 Bowl Games
UT-San Antonio @ New Mexico (***Includes tips on using the Matchup Grids***)
It's a home game for New Mexico, though the 11 hour drive could entice San Antonio fans to make a weekend trip for this Bowl game. I don't know what the ticket allotment was for UTSA, so I'm still applying the home field advantage here just to be on the safe side. It is UTSA's first Bowl game, so I'd expect a pretty solid fan turnout. Even with HFA applied I'm showing a little bit of value on the Roadrunners.
It's the Homerunners (jokes!) you have to keep an eye on here offensively, though, as UNM has one of the strongest Group of 5 running games this year (3rd strongest G5 running team behind USF and Navy). The Lobos have achieved this great ground success in some part because of a really weak schedule of run defenses faced. UTSA has an above average run defense at 55th. Before you think that UTSA will do a better than average job at slowing down UNM's running game, though, consider this: UNM has a pretty strong negative correlation between the run offense scores for each of their games and the opponent's run defense rank. (***These game tracking grids on the right side of each Bowl matchup page are new this year. The correlation scores are found on the bottom of each of the 4 season game grids***) This means that UNM has actually had their best games of run offense versus the better run defenses they've faced this year, as you can see in the upper right grid. It should be noted that their best run offense score which came in the final week was against a Wyoming team who'd already locked up their side of the conference and had nothing really to play for in that game.
***If you look at the consistency scores for each team on the edges of the big grid on the left, you'll see that UTSA has been pretty inconsistent on offense, but consistent on defense. This makes sense when you look at their "Best and Worst" games in the middle columns. Their best games offensively came against not very good defenses, while their worst games offensively came against some pretty bad defenses.***
New Mexico hasn't had a single "worst" game of rush offense, while not having had a single "Best" game of pass defense. UTSA's worst game of run defense came early in the season against ASU, who suffered a plethora of offensive injuries as the season went along and at full health probably wouldn't be anywhere close to the low 124th rank of run offense they currently have. Even then it barely qualified as a "worst" game and was only a run defense score of -33. ***Most of the run/pass offense/defense scores found in the middle of the grids on the right range at around 75 points +/- or less (with a standard deviation of 74 for run off./def. scores and just over 80 for pass off./def. scores). You can see that UTSA's run defense really was very consistent in the sense that all but one of their run defense scores feel between +49 and -33. They're not shutting any one down on the ground, but they're not letting anyone run wild either.
Ultimately, UTSA's offense, weak as it may be, may do enough versus a poor Lobo defense to keep this game within a score. You can see in UTSA's run offense scores that they were really pretty poor running the ball in the 2nd half of the season, though their final 3 opponents all had higher ranked run defenses than UNM. UTSA's pass offense did show some life in the final two games though. The wind forecast will not be in the Roadrunners favor, with winds at 20+ mph forecast for the entire game. This hurts the Roadrunners more than UNM as they pass on 42% of their plays versus just 21% for the Lobos. The Lobos, it should be noted, had two of their best three games of pass offense in their final 3 games, meaning they are more likely to punish you for cheating against the run than they were formerly capable of.
With the wind forecast I recommended a small play on the Under earlier in the week, but with the number below 60 now I'd pass, as I'm also doing on any side plays. Maybe for action I'll throw the Lobos into a very small teaser play with something else.
http://imgur.com/a/WJSYx
http://imgur.com/a/EZzjJ
