The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 11 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

Well, the line and juice have down far enough on the Toledo @ Central Mich. game that I'm going to get involved.

Adding for 0.5 unit (= 0.65% of bankroll this week): Toledo -3.5 (-105)

Toledo has big enough advantages in the running match ups to overcome their disadvantages in the passing match ups.

I also recommended and played a unit on Kent +7 (-120) at Ohio tonight. +6 is still good as I have this game 'capped very near a pick. Similar to the above game, the home team, Ohio, has an advantage in the passing match ups, but a disadvantage in the rushing match ups. Ohio did have their best running game of the season against Bowling Green last week, and they very well might have some of that post-bye new found ability back on display in this game, but Kent has an above average run defense. The only team that has averaged more than 4 ypc in a game this year against Kent is Toledo. Ohio has had a slew of defensive injuries that have turned a below average run defense into a bottom 5 run defense. Kent, to be fair, does not have a good running game, and has really struggled as of late, so it remains to be seen how well they'll be able to exploit Ohio's defensive weakness. In a lower than average scoring game, the points become more valuable.

 

[thecruncher]

Guess I should have waited on the downward Toledo steam, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Okay, fine, another 1/2 unit on Toledo -3 (-105) cockingasnook()

 

[thecruncher]

I had a few units on the BGSU @ WMU Over 75.5 but I'm going to juice it out on Under 75 because the weather forecast is getting worse. Hope I don't get baby Polish middled on 75.

 

[indiana]

Mr/C..........good luck with tonight's plays........indy

 

[Toasted8CU]

Good call Crunch

i wish I would get an alert when you post lol

 

[Incubus]

Good call Crunch

i wish I would get an alert when you post lol

Great call on Toledo by the Cruncher! :toast:

I also wish I would've seen his play. I would've never bet on those sad sacks at CMU.

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, eeked out a winner on Toledo but lost on Kent, who were awful. And to think they should have beaten Buffalo last week! lol. I did list the reasons why Kent might not cover tonight, and they proved to be right on, lol. I do shape my lines with in-season trends for each team's run/pass offense/defense units, but I've been toying with the idea of going beyond that with weighting recent performances more than earlier ones in the season. Clearly Ohio had some big positives in the blow out loss to BGSU, while Kent's offense should probably have been a steer clear, especially on the road. As bad as Ohio's run defense has been Kent just couldn't exploit it. There's another angle I'm looking into tracking for match ups as well...it's a lifelong process really, trying to get the lines as sharp as possible.

 

[Toasted8CU]

What time do you expect to post your plays for Wednesday night? East coast time, thanks

 

[thecruncher]

My play recommendation for tonight was 2 units on the NIU @ BUFF Under 56. By my rankings both teams have better defenses than offenses. BUFF's run offense is particularly weak, failing to have an above average game versus an opponent's usual ypc averages allowed even once this season. And it's even worse than that, they've actually gained fewer ypc than every team they've played this year usually allows. It's not that their run game is terrible every game -- it's not, it's just consistently below average. The BUFF passing game finally had it's first above average game a couple of weeks ago against Miami of Ohio (who has a surprisingly average pass defense this year -- surprisingly because you probably expected it to be bad, lol). They followed that up with one of their worst games of the season against Kent. NIU's pass defense is better than the average range of pass defenses Buffalo has faced, which is why I only project BUFF to average 5.8 ypp tonight. The NIU pass defense had some severe ups and downs through the first 6 weeks of the season, but has settled into a groove their last three games, allowing only 4.6 ypp to teams with a combined pass offense ranking not much worse than BUFF's.

NIU lost QB Drew Hare for the season last week, though freshman backup Ryan Graham filled in well in leading the team to a come from behind victory at Toledo. Still, that's a pretty small sample size of success, and the kid is a freshman. On top of that, NIU's best WR by far, Tommylee Lewis, has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight as well. Yeah, I'm still a little stung that NIU suffered those two injuries and still came back to win/cover at Toledo last week, lol. NIU is typically a run-oriented team, though statistically they are a little better passing the ball than running it. BUFF is below average defending both the pass and rush, but they're not too far behind NIU's offensive rankings, so NIU shouldn't be marching up and down the field on them, and the home field will help BUFF.

NIU does run an uptempo offense most of the time, which is somewhat counteracted by BUFF's slightly slow pace. This game isn't going to be a shoot out, and really shouldn't have many quick scoring drives. With a line in the 50s it can withstand a defensive or special teams score or two as well. If NIU does indeed have the 4th quarter lead, they'll also slow their pace while continuing to run the ball. Buffalo's offense should struggle throughout. Buffalo last week scored on an amazing one handed grab and a final drive where they converted multiple fourth downs (one because of a pass interference penalty) -- yeah, I'm still stung by losing the Kent 2nd half play because of that improbable last drive, lol (though the Under was still an easy winner in spite of it). I kid -- nothing stings after the great week I ended up having. Don't plan on Buffalo getting the backdoor score that pushes this one Over tonight.

 

[Incubus]

Thanks, Cruncher, for this UNDER 56 totals play in the Northern Illinois - Buffalo game!

I had to buy it back up to 56 so I could play the UNDER, but I think it's worth the risk. I love your analysis and reasoning behind the play!
Bet of luck to you, me, and everyone else tailing! :toast:

 

[pac]

54.5 on my book....was hoping to be able to grab 56.

Crunch- how do you feel about the 54.5 number?

thanks!

 

[thecruncher]

54.5 on my book....was hoping to be able to grab 56.

Crunch- how do you feel about the 54.5 number?

thanks!

I still like it for a medium size play at that number.

 

[pac]

I still like it for a medium size play at that number.

Thanks for the follow up.

BOL with all your action

 

[PsychedelicPicks]

BOL Cruncher!

 

[thecruncher]

Thx guys. Psych -- I was a Mormon missionary in South DR. Loved the people there, super friendly. Hated my mission, but that's a different, long story altogether, lol.

 

[PsychedelicPicks]

Thx guys. Psych -- I was a Mormon missionary in South DR. Loved the people there, super friendly. Hated my mission, but that's a different, long story altogether, lol.

lol sorry about the mission. Yeah I see missionaries here all time walking around neighborhoods. Indeed there is no doubt about it, the people of the island are very warm and inviting.

 

[Incubus]

The UNDER 56 is in serious jeopardy. :scared:

I didn't expect NIU to be running the HURRY UP OFFENSE throughout the ENTIRE 1st first half.

Buffalo is shitting the bed, and they've offered absolutely no resistance.

We'll need a MIRACLE to get this UNDER!

 

[rekt]

Milk the clock NIU!

 

[Skeeter123]

Incubus - You're a piece of work bud. What's the point of posting that in Crunchers thread? If he recommended the under, I'm sure he knows the score at the half. Sheesh...

GL everybody