The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 09 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

Gained value on some, lost on some. I knew I shouldn't have fired on BC right out of the gate with as bad as their offense has been, lol. Still VT as a team has to be pretty discouraged heading into this game.

Week #9 Recommended Investments

3 Units

UNC -2.5 @ PITT
LOU -9.5 @ WAKE (-115)

2 Units

GASO -19 vs TXST
USF +10 @ NAVY
MASS +4 @ BALL (-115)
GAST +18.5 @ ARST (-105)
SDSU -3 @ CSU (-125)
CIN -20.5 vs UCF
UNT +12.5 vs UTSA

1 Unit

EMU +20.5 vs WMU
LT -10 @ RICE
NEB -10 @ PUR
CLEM -9.5 @ NCST
MISS -6 @ AUB
GT -2.5 @ UVA (-115)
HOU -14 vs VAN (-115)
SYR +20.5 @ FSU (-105)
USM -19 vs UTEP (-115)
BC +1.5 vs VT
APP -24 vs TROY
UCLA -18.5 vs COLO
UTAH -23.5 vs ORST

.6 Unit

STAN -12.5 @ WSU (-115)
OKLA -39 @ KU
ISU +8.5 vs TEX
ULL -9.5 vs ULM (-115)

 

[indiana]

Mr/C..........thank you, on UNC (I finally got a good number)..........had to take 10.5 for Lou...........BOL with your action this week.............indy

 

[thecruncher]

Thx Indy, BOL on those this week.

Adding for 1 Unit: FAU +3.5 vs FIU

FAU not as bad as their final score last week. UTEP played perfect keep away against them like they did so well frequently last year -- having QB Leftwich back made all the difference for UTEP). FAU still had good ypc and ypp averages in the games. The -2 turnover margin for FAU was all it took to keep them behind and losing in a slow paced game.

FIU was not as good as their 29 point win over ODU. ODU outgained FIU and couldn't cover the +14.5 for chrissakes. Once again the -2 turnover margin was big. FIU had one of their better days passing the ball, but they couldn't run it worth a damn while allowing multiple big runs and a very high ypc to ODU.

I think FIU's fading run game will spell their demise, with FAU getting the outright win by 3 or 4 at home.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for .6 Unit: TENN -7 @ KEN (-105)

Tennessee deservedly almost knocked of Alabama last week -- I'm hoping they don't suffer from a hang over loss. They can't afford to lose any more games within range of winning -- they should get the job done versus Kentucky.

Tennessee won the rushing matchups with Alabama, the first team to beat the Crimson Tide at that all year. They were also only the second team to outperform their usual yards per pass averages versus Alabama. The case can definitely be made for Alabama not being as consistently excellent as we're used to them being, but Tennessee has to be the best 2-4 team in the country by a huge margin, lol. They have no real weaknesses offensively or defensively. The same cannot be said for Kentucky, whose pass defense has been really bad their last few games, while their run defense is just a hair below average. Offensively they can make things happen, but even there they're not as good as Tennessee.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.5 Unit: CHAR +20.5 vs MRSH

Let's admit Charlotte's weakness first -- they have a bottom five pass offense. It ain't good folks. That being said, Marshall is a team you want to run against, so expect CHAR to do that as much as situationally possible -- 60%+ percent of all plays. Marshall's top RB D. Johnson is now out indefinitely, but Marshall has had some good play from their other RB's so his loss won't be too great. That being said, Marshall shouldn't have too big of an advantage in the run matchups. Fortunately for Charlotte, Marshall's pass offense isn't too far behind Charlotte's in suckitude. Charlotte's been playing good enough defense (barring the occasional collapse on the road -- they've been pretty darn good at home, actually) to keep Marshall from running away with this game. I mean, if Marshall couldn't pull away from North Texas at home last week, winning by 17, I see no reason for them to do better against a better defense while being on the road. Marshall should win by 14 or so. If the line for whatever reason goes above 21 I'll buy another half unit.

 

[alkimyst]

Good luck, Crunch!

 

[thecruncher]

thx, alki!

Adding for .6 unit: Wyoming +28 @ Utah St.

I don't care if Wyoming's QB and top WR are out for this game, this is still too many points. This team is playing hard and have covered their last four games.

 

[thecruncher]

Bumping OKLA -39 up to a full unit while the 39 is still available.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding a 1/2 unit on Appalachian State at -23.5. I project them to decimate Troy.

 

[thecruncher]

Week #9 Recommended Totals

2 Unit plays are setting up to middle some of the investment. 1.5 unit plays and less are to let ride. Clearly I'm valuing Georgia State's run defense a lot more highly than most (and the market) seem to realize. I rank them 41st. Arkansas State's offense is still not good, even with Freddie Knighten, who is a terrible passer. ***Insta-Update -- the market has been pretty quick to beat this line down, actually. The posted opener was 66, it was 64.5 when I first saw it.

Yes, there's the chance that Oklahoma puts up 60+ on Kansas, but if they do I'm pretty sure they'll cover the 1 unit on the -39 I have on them now. Kansas will be lucky to score anything in this game.

Marshall and Charlotte have two of the worst passing games in football right now.

2 Units

OKLA @ KU UNDER 66
GAST @ ARST UNDER 64.5
MRSH @ CHAR UNDER 52
TENN @ UK OVER 53

1.5 Unit:

MICH @ MINN UNDER 40 (39 a dead number and not sure if this will drop to 38. Just not sure there'll be enough downward movement to bother trying to middle. Still, wouldn't be surprised to see this get as low as 37, at which point it would def. have been worth trying to set up some buy back.)

1 Unit

VT @ BC UNDER 38
USC @ CAL OVER 65.5
CMU @ AKR UNDER 48
RUTG @ WIS OVER 47.5
UNC @ PITT OVER 52

.6 Unit

SYR @ FSU OVER 51
SDSU @ CSU OVER 49.5
GT @ UVA UNDER 57

.5 Unit

ORST @ UTAH UNDER 56.5
SCAR @ TA&M OVER 53.5
TEX @ ISU UNDER 56
WVU @ TCU OVER 74
BSU @ UNLV UNDER 54.5

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: South Carolina +17 @ Texas A&M

I'm guessing it was a service play that bumped this number up hard today. The market had pushed it down on opening (and rightly so, in my opinion, obviously, lol). Definitely worth a play at +17 now. Texas A&M, as I predicted, showed who they were last week. They were even worse, frankly, and a lingering injury to QB Allen's hand might have something to do with it, because he was terrible. The run games should be pretty evenly matched in this game, and TA&M's advantage in the passing game (which may or may not materialize if they're not much improved from last week's performance) + home field isn't enough to warrant being a 17 point favorite.

 

[Kiln]

If I had to choose only one poster to follow across all the forums where college football is discussed, it'd be thecruncher. No joke.

I like Air Force this week at -7 (@Hawaii). Do you reckon I'll be able to get a better number if I wait?
Also: I was surpised you weren't on the App State OVER. That's up to 52 now. I like it there as much as at 51. Do you have an opinion?

 

[ChuckBooms]

If I had to choose only one poster to follow across all the forums where college football is discussed, it'd be thecruncher. No joke.

I like Air Force this week at -7 (@Hawaii). Do you reckon I'll be able to get a better number if I wait?
Also: I was surpised you weren't on the App State OVER. That's up to 52 now. I like it there as much as at 51. Do you have an opinion?

Agreed on the Cruncher comment. He explains his reasons for hitting a number when he does. I learn from reading his posts.

 

[Devo2487]

+1..... His data,research, and reasoning are 2nd to none! The time and effort he puts in cannot be matched in my opinion! Thanks for all you do crunch! Keep killin em! Greatly appreciate all your hard work!

 

[thecruncher]

If I had to choose only one poster to follow across all the forums where college football is discussed, it'd be thecruncher. No joke.

I like Air Force this week at -7 (@Hawaii). Do you reckon I'll be able to get a better number if I wait?
Also: I was surpised you weren't on the App State OVER. That's up to 52 now. I like it there as much as at 51. Do you have an opinion?

Aw shucks, thx guys. I do put in a borderline pathetic amount of time and energy into this, lol. I'd make more $ if I just stuck with my poker grinding, but this, at least is fun! lol

I like Air Force too. The line has vacillated between -7 and -7.5. I've been holding off waiting to see if we get a -6.5. Probably less than 50% chance of that, but you never know when RAS, Bob, or Billy might make play on Hawaii and give us a better number. Air Force did lose pretty handily on the road to a CSU team with a worse run defense than Hawaii, so there is SOME reason to be cautious here. Also, Air Force's pass defense has had all three of it's bad games of pass defense on the road, while being pretty solid at home. A part of that, though, is the teams they've played and where, but still...

 

[thecruncher]

App's offense should have it's way with Troy's defense, but Troy's offense should struggle mightily here. App's pattern has been to get out to a healthy halftime lead against inferior opponents, but then the scoring slows down quite a bit in the second half as they run the ball on 70% of their plays and chew up the clock, while their defense still limits the opponent's offensive success. I think the number now that is has moved up to 53.5 is pretty much right on. There is a chance that App totally boat races Troy and gets to 50+ on their own, it's true. Troy's offensive was realllly bad when QB Silvers was out/playing hurt, but he appears to be healthy now. They did hang a bunch of points on New Mexico St., but they did it by capitalizing on all their first half opportunities, their ypc and ypp averages were still pretty mediocre, especially given NMSU's lack of defensive prowess. Still, their is the chance that Silvers gets even more back in rhythm this game and leads some scoring drives. I'd be more apt to take the first half Over rather than the game Over as long as you can get lower than 28 when it opens.

 

[tmader7]

Tsk, tsk, tsk...... just won't consult your friend in North Carolina for info on the Carolina teams and ACC. Who told ya NCSt. was the play last Saturday, LOL. FWIW, I like UNC this week, Appy St. as well. Louisville should be good, and now that I can't see the rest of your "my" regional action on this Surface screen, not sure what else I'd comment on, but I'll be hitting your top two anyway and Appy, although might tease that number down. Gotta ask GoSooners what he thinks about that KU #, but the JayHawks are on their knees thanking God that hoops season is upon us, LOL. GL with this weeks action.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

You did indeed call NCST, even with the market going against you the last day. It was never in doubt after the early hammer blows. Got unlucky with the Under on that one, with NCST getting a late defensive/special teams score, and then Wake getting the killer score after that.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Hey cruncher, u think rutgers will ever get to +21 or higher? Same with minny+14/.5

 

[thecruncher]

Hey cruncher, u think rutgers will ever get to +21 or higher? Same with minny+14/.5

Rutgers might get to +21, no harm in waiting as it's gone up a bit from opener, but I don't think it will go above 21 without getting knocked back down quickly. Minny is already at +14 and I can't see MICH taking much action at that number or higher. I think it will sit on 14 pretty much the rest of the week. That's what I think, anyway.