The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 07 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

2 Units:

APP -8.5 @ ULM

1.2 Units:

PSU +17 @ OSU (-115)
UNC -14 vs WAKE
ALA -3.5 @ TA&M
HOU -16 @ TULN
UNM -3.5 VS HAW (-115)

.6 UNIT:

BC +15.5 @ CLEM
WYO +7 VS NEV
IDAHO +12.5 @ TROY
KSU +4 VS OKLA
AFA PICK @ CSU
TTU -27 @ KU
IOWA -2.5 @ NW
ASU +6.5 @ UTAH (-115) Not a ton of value, I'm just making it a point to fade Utah right now, lol.
VAN +6.5 @ SCAR (-115)
STAN -5 VS UCLA

 

[thecruncher]

Damn, missed putting in my coffee cup icon! lol

 

[thecruncher]

.6 Unit: OHIO -3.5 vs WMU

WMU playing better after a bad start to the season, but I'll still go with Ohio here.

 

[thecruncher]

.6 Unit: UCF +21.5 @ Temple

Please don't pull a UTEP style roll over, UCF. If any team is poised to do it, it's UCF, unfortunately, lol. Still, a lot of points for a tepid Temple offense.

 

[markinla]

Thx crunch for the info and work. Looks good.

 

[scrubs]

thanks for all u do, Crunch.....big plus that you get this out so early on Sunday

 

[thecruncher]

.6 Unit: Wisconsin -19.5 vs Purdue

 

[thecruncher]

Here's muh grabs on the totes:

2 Units:
WAKE @ UNC OVER 46.5
TULSA @ ECU OVER 74
AUB @ UK OVER 50

1.2 Units:

USC @ ND OVER 60
VT @ MIA OVER 52 (though worried line might drop a little before rebounding up later)
APP @ ULM UNDER 48
MISS @ MEM OVER 68
KENT @ MASS OVER 56
PITT @ GT UNDER 50
MIZZ @ UGA OVER 46
MRSH @ FAU UNDER 54.5
BOISE @ USU OVER 47
WKU @ UNT OVER 68 (probably try for middle at half if above pace as WKU piles up points first half, doesn't add much with run game 2nd half)

.7 Unit:

ALA @ TA&M Over 53

.6 UNIT:

HOU @ TULN UNDER 63.5
SDSU @ SJSU UNDER 49
ARIZ @ COLO OVER 66
HAW @ UNM UNDER 50
UTSA @ USM OVER 60
NEV @ WYO OVER 51.5
CHAR @ ODU UNDER 48.5
WVU @ BAY OVER 78
PUR @ WIS OVER 48
USF @ CONN UNDER 48.5
UNLV @ FRES UNDER 55

.5 UNIT:

AFA @ CSU OVER 54
IOWA @ NW OVER 40
ARST @ SOAL UNDER 58.5 (TUESDAY NIGHT LOOSE ACTION, LOL)

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: BUFF +7 @ CMU (+105 5D)

I'll back the team that should have the better day running the ball. Buffalo's offense has been pretty stagnant, so hopefully facing the weakest run defense they've seen this year gives their offense some good 3rd down flexibility. Buff's pass defense has been okay except against BGSU, and their definitely not alone in that department. BGSU now has my # ranked pass offense. CMU is none too shabby at 37th, but they've actually averaged -0.8 ypp less than their opponent's averages.

 

[CHITOWNODAWG]

That UTEP game totally ruined my weekend lol, I thought they were playing against Fournette the way they like FIU run on them I haven't seen a effort that shitty on defense against a team who cant score in years. gl

 

[thecruncher]

That UTEP game totally ruined my weekend lol, I thought they were playing against Fournette the way they like FIU run on them I haven't seen a effort that shitty on defense against a team who cant score in years. gl

That game was brutal, lol. FIU's offense had been looking worse and worse every week, and still UTEP couldn't muster the 1st half energy to stop them. I count on everyone showing up to play, regardless of past games, but every now and then it just doesn't seem to happen.

 

[thecruncher]

A final look at last week's College Football Market Cheat Sheet (PM for info. on getting it early).

Did very well against the market totals, being an average of 1.2 points sharper than the openers on every game. Recommended spread investments (made at time of BOL openers) averaged a 3% value gain versus the openers, while totals averaged 4.5% value gain versus the openers. Will post my record later, but once again sides did very well, while totals were down a large amount of hairy high-scoring games for the first time this season.

 

[United]

Good luck Crunch, keep up the nice job!

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, Uni!

I can only guess that the reason the MISS@MEM total has come down is because of MISS' RB Walton's "?" status, because I'm showing pretty good line value on the Over here. I'm going to add another unit on Over 64.5, anticipating the line to go up come Saturday, then buy some of it back for a middle.

 

[thecruncher]

Same kinda' deal with BSU @ USU, I reckon. BSU RB McNichols "?" and the line has come down a point. My profile on this one is just an Under lean, so I'll go with the line value which is pretty solid on the Over. Buy another unit at Over 46 and hope to get at least 48.5 on the buy back, with a good chance of it going higher, according to my numbers.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: CIN @ BYU Over 64

 

[thecruncher]

Well, buying those extra units of Over already made a big difference just, lol, with MEM up to 68.5 and USU up to 48.5. They might have been dummied down a little to begin with, but Right Angle Sports released them both today so "poof" - instant line value on those Over investments.

RAS also released WVU @ BAY Under, but I'm definitely against him on that one, though it wasn't one of my stronger plays. Now that it's at 75.5, though, I'll buy a full unit on the Over now, as it's almost certainly going to finish in the high 70s, if not 80, to set up a partial buy back/middle. One service (with a break even record this year) driving down the total 2.5 points won't hold, the rest of the market will push it back up, truuuuuust me.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: FLA @ LSU Under 47

 

[thecruncher]

Going to double down another one against RAS steam. Adding a unit on APP @ ULM Under 50 to go with the Under 48. I think this line will drop back down into the 47 range, covering some nice key numbers in the process. ULM has a bottom five pass offense, bottom 15 run offense, but a decent defense. Appalachian St. figured to be a pretty good team returning more starters than any other team this year, and they've certainly been living up to that. Their defense has been pretty good, though oddly they had their worst defensive game against WYO at home in the rain storm. That result is somewhat skewed though, by the fact that WYO had been missing their starting QB prior to that game. ULM rates to struggle on offense all, day, long. They couldn't muster much O. against Tulsa last week, who has a bottom five defense. APP St. games in which they've dominated their opponents have followed a pattern -- APP gets out to a comfortable halftime lead, then slows down the game running the ball a lot in the second half, while their defense continues to limit the opponent, all leading to little second half scoring. The spread on this game opened lower than it did for APP against the other inferior teams they've played, but that was a mistake, as I project APP to win by a healthy 20 point margin.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: TCU @ ISU Over 74.5